The New Madrid Fault continues to rumble

[Glenn's take]

Glenn your story is one of those where it's just so crazy it has to be true.

As God is my witness I swear it is. We played them in mid November in 1990 and he made the prediction for December 1990. We lost 47-15, not that I would have remembered that if not for the internet. I was trashed.
http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/kentucky/1990-schedule.html
http://www.showme.net/~fkeller/quake/comments.htm

 

[GhostVol]

It's been all downhill for Bangladesh ever since they changed their name from Kampuchea.

Yer all wrong. Bangladesh used to be East Pakistan (yeah, I FINALLY found a use for 10th grade world history)

 

[Teachable Moe]

Who are the shipdits who thought it was a good idea to put nuclear reactors on a major fault line?

The need for water for cooling makes siting nuclear reactors a bit of a gamble. If you site a reactor on stable craton, you are probably not going to have enough water. If you site it on a river or lake or ocean front, you have weather or geological issues.

 

[bbonds]

So again, why do people think nuclear power is a good idea?

 

[Teachable Moe]

~20 years ago they tried to fan New Madrid anxieties when they thought it had a 100 year cycle. They studied it and recalculated it: new estimate was over 700 years.

As for size, you'd have to be real near Ground Zero to feel a 2.0 earthquake.

 

[bbonds]

So essentially risk = reward. Sounds about right.

 

[ymmot31]

So again, why do people think nuclear power is a good idea?

Because they understand it exponentially more than you do.

 

[Teachable Moe]

So essentially risk = reward. Sounds about right.

Elaborate on that, please.

 

[bbonds]

The risk of catastrophic devastation to achieve 700 years of sustained power.

 

[Teachable Moe]

The risk of catastrophic devastation to achieve 700 years of sustained power.

Your elaboration isn't very elaborate. Excuse me if I'm wrong, but you seem to think the risk and the reward are equal. A lot of people would find them wildly unequal. I don't imagine the citizens of the northeast coast of Japan dance a jig over the prospect of nuclear reactors in their neighborhood.

 

[Teachable Moe]

Seeing as 1 cubic centimeter of uranium has about as much electricty-producing potential as all known coal reserves combined, I'm willing to trade a couple dozen Chernobyls for cheap kilowatts.

Where do you find your amazing factoids?

 

[Free_Salato_Blue]

Nothing to see, it's just the WWE.

 

[bbonds]

Yep, and that northeast half of Japan is worthless for the next 100 or so years. High risk. But holy shit, look at that reward (energy).

 

[Teachable Moe]

It's just common sense brother -- ever heard of a little place called Hiroshima?

I was afraid common sense played a roll.**

 

[ymmot31]

Yep, and that northeast half of Japan is worthless for the next 100 or so years. High risk. But holy shit, look at that reward (energy).

You really have no idea what you're talking about and there is no reason for that other than willful ignorance. Pretty sure you know how to read.

 

[stevo51]

You with me?

Count me in
Ground control to Major Tom

 

[catsfan3523]

Then it sounds to me like the NMF is a bit of a slacker, what with 204+ years of unfulfilled potential and all.

It typically takes new Madrid fault around 200 to 220 years to have a major earhquake. I can't remember where I seen the article about it, but as far back as they have recorded them it has happened real close to 200 years apart each time.

 

[stevo51]

Man it must be a REAL shithole then.

I mean, Pakistan is bad enough, but "East" Pakistan? Poor bastards -- East Pakistan is the Appalachia of Pakistan.

Sorta like east LA

 

[allabouttheUK]

It typically takes new Madrid fault around 200 to 220 years to have a major earhquake. I can't remember where I seen the article about it, but as far back as they have recorded them it has happened real close to 200 years apart each time.

Be some shit if that thing opened up right under the Mississippi River and drained the damn thing.

The though of a major quake close to Kentucky freaks me out a bit. A lot of this state is a major quake away from being a giant sinkhole.

 

[Teachable Moe]

Any geologists here? I've looked into the question of the maximum size of an earthquake and apparently the 9.5 earthquake near Chile is the largest in historical time. The articles talked about the length of the fault limiting the size of the quake, but I wondered whether rock could withstand forces much larger than for a 9.5 quake. Once the stress got to X any rock would shear or crumble. I suspect I'm clueless about the mechanics of earthquakes.

 

[allabouttheUK]

Any geologists here? I've looked into the question of the maximum size of an earthquake and apparently the 9.5 earthquake near Chile is the largest in historical time. The articles talked about the length of the fault limiting the size of the quake, but I wondered whether rock could withstand forces much larger than for a 9.5 quake. Once the stress got to X any rock would shear or crumble. I suspect I'm clueless about the mechanics of earthquakes.

Definitely not a geologist, but have a spectators interest in natural disasters. So if one hit Kentucky the quake would be well below the cave level and the plates would push over/under one another. I would think that even with a moderate 5-6 magnitude quake depending on how shallow it was would be enough to destabilize some of the cave systems and make the collapse.So if the cave collapses then everything above it falls to, right? I mean you can't raise or lower a plate without affecting what is sitting on top of it, can you?

 

[Willy4UK]

Any geologists here? I've looked into the question of the maximum size of an earthquake and apparently the 9.5 earthquake near Chile is the largest in historical time. The articles talked about the length of the fault limiting the size of the quake, but I wondered whether rock could withstand forces much larger than for a 9.5 quake. Once the stress got to X any rock would shear or crumble. I suspect I'm clueless about the mechanics of earthquakes.

Yep. Geologist here.

Teachable Moe, it does matter about the size of the fault line due to the hydrolic pressure being pushed by thermodynamic gradiation. They can withstand a 9.5 at that size, but no matter the size of the fault line, a 11.0 would pretty much split the Earth in half. It's not that you're clueless. far from it, it's just you being ignorant about Geology.

 

[Teachable Moe]

Yep. Geologist here.

Teachable Moe, it does matter about the size of the fault line due to the hydrolic pressure being pushed by thermodynamic gradiation. They can withstand a 9.5 at that size, but no matter the size of the fault line, a 11.0 would pretty much split the Earth in half. It's not that you're clueless. far from it, it's just you being ignorant about Geology.

Thanks for the response.

 

[funKYcat75]

Yep. Geologist here.

Teachable Moe, it does matter about the size of the fault line due to the hydrolic pressure being pushed by thermodynamic gradiation. They can withstand a 9.5 at that size, but no matter the size of the fault line, a 11.0 would pretty much split the Earth in half. It's not that you're clueless. far from it, it's just you being ignorant about Geology.

Willy is a hydrogeologist, which is like saying a chiropractor is a medical doctor. There is no limit on the size of an earthquake. Even a 16.9 one would merely turn the roads over. Inconvenient, but this isn't a movie. Stop being so dramatic.

 

[Willy4UK]

Willy is a hydrogeologist, which is like saying a chiropractor is a medical doctor. There is no limit on the size of an earthquake. Even a 16.9 one would merely turn the roads over. Inconvenient, but this isn't a movie. Stop being so dramatic.

Exactly. I try to just use the Geologist label because it's what people recognize. You start talking Hydrogeology and you will absolutely lose people.

 

[funKYcat75]

Exactly. I try to just use the Geologist label because it's what people recognize. You start talking Hydrogeology and you will absolutely lose people.

I don't know why. Hydrogeology:Geology::TBall:MLB

If you keep throwing around your Geologist tag, I will have your accreditation pulled. You don't even have to do post-doctorate work in Hydrogeology (aka Water Rocks)

 

[Willy4UK]

I don't know why. Hydrogeology:Geology::TBall:MLB

If you keep throwing around your Geologist tag, I will have your accreditation pulled. You don't even have to do post-doctorate work in Hydrogeology (aka Water Rocks)

Please don't man. Strayer University is already having enough trouble as it is. That whole university will crumble if their Hydrogeology dept. gets removed. Look at the damage to all the African Americans attending UNC for the African American studies degree.

 

[Supreme Lord Z]

Large earthquakes change the axis and rotation of the earth. The 9.0 in Japan increased the speed of the rotation of earth thereby shortening each day and also shift earth's axis.

http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/japanquake/earth20110314.html

 

[jamo0001]

I don't know why. Hydrogeology:Geology::TBall:MLB

If you keep throwing around your Geologist tag, I will have your accreditation pulled. You don't even have to do post-doctorate work in Hydrogeology (aka Water Rocks)

so willy studies ice?

is all of this code for meth use?

 

[Teachable Moe]

Willy is a hydrogeologist, which is like saying a chiropractor is a medical doctor. There is no limit on the size of an earthquake. Even a 16.9 one would merely turn the roads over. Inconvenient, but this isn't a movie. Stop being so dramatic.

So,apparently I've misunderstood earthquakes. I've always pictured the movement of the Earth being resisted by the strength of the affected rocks. Once the stress exceeds the strength of the rock, the earth moves. Within that was the assumption that there is a limit on the strength of rocks. So, there was a limit (according to my layman's ideas) on the amount of stress that an earthquake can release. (There have been movements precipitated by outside forces -- like a huge asteroid -- but that seems to be outside the usual meaning of earthquake. )

So, what is the immediate "cause" of an earthquake?

 

[Teachable Moe]

Close -- anything below 17 on the Richter scale makes roads buckle sinusoidally. That's right all you iliturate bastards, I just dropped some sinusoidal knowledge on your ignorant asses.

Tooting your own horn.

 

[funKYcat75]

So, what is the immediate "cause" of an earthquake?

Well, as with most sciences, it's only a 'theory' as to why they occur at all. Plate Tectonics theory, for example, say that the continents are in a constant survival mode, trying to be the last one left after all the shifting. The European plate is losing, obviously, a battle against the African plate. Once Europe goes under Africa, it will set its sights on the American plate. Whichever is the final continent becomes Pangea, which is Latin for 'great victor'. So it all has something to do with that and lava/magma. Again, this is all a theory, which is basically a way to just throw the proverbial darts at the gift horse's mouth, so to speak.

 

[Willy4UK]

So,apparently I've misunderstood earthquakes. I've always pictured the movement of the Earth being resisted by the strength of the affected rocks. Once the stress exceeds the strength of the rock, the earth moves. Within that was the assumption that there is a limit on the strength of rocks. So, there was a limit (according to my layman's ideas) on the amount of stress that an earthquake can release. (There have been movements precipitated by outside forces -- like a huge asteroid -- but that seems to be outside the usual meaning of earthquake. )

So, what is the immediate "cause" of an earthquake?

It's all tectonic plates man. Look, the rocks stick while trying to move. Trying to move it causes friction.

 

[UKGrad93]

Your elaboration isn't very elaborate. Excuse me if I'm wrong, but you seem to think the risk and the reward are equal. A lot of people would find them wildly unequal. I don't imagine the citizens of the northeast coast of Japan dance a jig over the prospect of nuclear reactors in their neighborhood.

Japan has a large population in a small area, what other forms of energy production should they be using?

Based on # of deaths per kWh, nuclear does ok.

Energy Source Mortality Rate (deaths/trillionkWhr)

Coal – global average 100,000 (50% global electricity)

Coal – China 170,000 (75% China’s electricity)

Coal – U.S. 10,000 (44% U.S. electricity)

Oil 36,000 (36% of energy, 8% of electricity)

Natural Gas 4,000 (20% global electricity)

Biofuel/Biomass 24,000 (21% global energy)

Solar (rooftop) 440 (< 1% global electricity)

Wind 150 (~ 1% global electricity)

Hydro – global average 1,400 (15% global electricity)

Hydro – U.S. 0.01 (7% U.S. electricity)

Nuclear – global average 90 (17% global electricity w/Chern&Fukush)

Nuclear – U.S. 0.01 (19% U.S. electricity)

 

[Willy4UK]

so willy studies ice?

is all of this code for meth use?

Jamo, that's chemistry. I didn't do good at that.

 

[allabouttheUK]

Yep, and that northeast half of Japan is worthless for the next 100 or so years. High risk. But holy shit, look at that reward (energy).

Japan is in Asia!

 

[crazyqx83]

Willy is a hydrogeologist, which is like saying a chiropractor is a medical doctor. There is no limit on the size of an earthquake. Even a 16.9 one would merely turn the roads over. Inconvenient, but this isn't a movie. Stop being so dramatic.

Turn the roads over?! ****! What does that mean for my garden?

 

[crazyqx83]

Close -- anything below 17 on the Richter scale makes roads buckle sinusoidally. That's right all you iliturate bastards, I just dropped some sinusoidal knowledge on your ignorant asses.

Too bad this was from wind.

 

[allabouttheUK]

Turn the roads over?! ****! What does that mean for my garden?

Means you won't have to plow or disc it. Just let mother nature do the work for you.

 

[stevo51]

Large earthquakes change the axis and rotation of the earth. The 9.0 in Japan increased the speed of the rotation of earth thereby shortening each day and also shift earth's axis.

http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/japanquake/earth20110314.html

A few more attacks by Godzilla and Japan is toast anyway