Season observations after 2/25 games in Round Rock

[backinky2018]

-6-1 record is very good, considering the uneven play of this team so far.
-Road sweep to begin season, avoid bad loss at home to Morehead, and then go 2-1 against a middling field in Round rock is a good outcome.
-Our Friday pitching worries me, but Saturday and Sunday starters are rock solid. Relief has been decent. Byers and Nove seem much improved this year. Hummel is a find. Robinson has been mostly good. Having Frieda as a closer is worrisome.
-Our defense has been ATROCIOUS. 3rd base has been an error machine, regardless of who is playing. Even normally reliable Smith and Petre have been mistake prone. Have to clean this up.
-Offense has been mostly bad. Hitting has been awful, tons of strikeouts. The positive is that the team manufactures runs and seems to punish the other team whenever they are given an mistake. Today, UK had a 6 run fourth, all b/c of a 2 out error. cats followed up the error with walks, HBP, a triple and a homer.
-Players who seem better: Nove, Byers, Nolan, Church
-Players who seem the same or worse: McCoy (will this guy ever live up to potential??), Burkes (not playing terribly, but would have hoped for more at the plate), Petre (slow start, but seems to be heating up with today's homer and another hit too)
-Notable newcomers: Daley had a DAY yesterday. Herrerra had the key triple today. Crittenberger and Schram have had some clutch hits.

I am less confident in this team than I was in last year's team at this point; however, it's still very early. Hopefully the bats come alive and the defense gets cleaned up before SEC play.

 

[ATLCat15]

-6-1 record is very good, considering the uneven play of this team so far.
-Road sweep to begin season, avoid bad loss at home to Morehead, and then go 2-1 against a middling field in Round rock is a good outcome.
-Our Friday pitching worries me, but Saturday and Sunday starters are rock solid. Relief has been decent. Byers and Nove seem much improved this year. Hummel is a find. Robinson has been mostly good. Having Frieda as a closer is worrisome.
-Our defense has been ATROCIOUS. 3rd base has been an error machine, regardless of who is playing. Even normally reliable Smith and Petre have been mistake prone. Have to clean this up.
-Offense has been mostly bad. Hitting has been awful, tons of strikeouts. The positive is that the team manufactures runs and seems to punish the other team whenever they are given an mistake. Today, UK had a 6 run fourth, all b/c of a 2 out error. cats followed up the error with walks, HBP, a triple and a homer.
-Players who seem better: Nove, Byers, Nolan, Church
-Players who seem the same or worse: McCoy (will this guy ever live up to potential??), Burkes (not playing terribly, but would have hoped for more at the plate), Petre (slow start, but seems to be heating up with today's homer and another hit too)
-Notable newcomers: Daley had a DAY yesterday. Herrerra had the key triple today. Crittenberger and Schram have had some clutch hits.

I am less confident in this team than I was in last year's team at this point; however, it's still very early. Hopefully the bats come alive and the defense gets cleaned up before SEC play.

Just curious, why were you more confident in last years team at this point? 5-2 with a schedule that is probably a bit worse than this years. There are certainly some things to clean up, but continuing to win games in spite of those has me pretty fired up about the ceiling of this group.

 

[briarcreek]

I would include Hagenow as a bright spot in the pen, he has been really good. It appears Burkes, Pitre, Smith, Waldy and McCarthy are going to be every day lineup guys. I think 3B, 1B, RF and DH are still up for competition

 

[Cats8585]

I said before the season it felt like we were 2 pitchers short, and I still agree with that.

The offense hasn’t been that good but a lot of guys have played and I’m sure when they’re playing consistently they’ll begin having more success.

It seems like there are a lot of transfer hitters and not enough pitchers. Very odd to have this many hitters to choose from but this few pitchers.

I think the defense will be fine when everyone is in a regular spot. The defense can not be as good as last year and still be the best in the SEC.

 

[backinky2018]

Just curious, why were you more confident in last years team at this point? 5-2 with a schedule that is probably a bit worse than this years. There are certainly some things to clean up, but continuing to win games in spite of those has me pretty fired up about the ceiling of this group.

Fair point. I just felt better b/c our hitting was further along at this point, and our pitching depth seemed stronger. Also, our defense was rock solid from day 1 last year.

But, I stipulate that it's def reasonable to feel optimistic given that we found ways to win these games.

 

[backinky2018]

I would include Hagenow as a bright spot in the pen, he has been really good. It appears Burkes, Pitre, Smith, Waldy and McCarthy are going to be every day lineup guys. I think 3B, 1B, RF and DH are still up for competition

Agreed. He has been great so far.

 

[ATLCat15]

Fair point. I just felt better b/c our hitting was further along at this point, and our pitching depth seemed stronger. Also, our defense was rock solid from day 1 last year.

But, I stipulate that it's def reasonable to feel optimistic given that we found ways to win these games.

I like what I’m seeing offensively. Think it may take a little longer for the right core to click just because of the amount of guys, but I’ve liked the approach in 5 of the 7 games. I thought Smith threw the ball a lot better on Friday. Got hurt by a soft contact a couple times in the big inning and then found a barrel for the triple.

Defense has been a huge question mark, but I feel like there is too much proven success there for it not the click. Outfield play needs to improve.

 

[Seamhead_Ninja]

I'm reserving judgement until we see Waldy in the OF full-time. So many dominoes on both sides of ball when that happens.

 

[briarcreek]

I'm reserving judgement until we see Waldy in the OF full-time. So many dominoes on both sides of ball when that happens.

Waldy being able to play OF will free up the DH spot for Lopez. Lopez’s bat needs to be in the lineup everyday.

 

[dtjr]

Waldy being able to play OF will free up the DH spot for Lopez. Lopez’s bat needs to be in the lineup everyday.

Lopez playing first was strange but I do like his bat. With one of the few with power Nicholson on the bench.
Also no Crittenberger against his old team. I thought he looked good in CF when he has played.

 

[Seamhead_Ninja]

Lopez playing first was strange but I do like his bat. With one of the few with power Nicholson on the bench.
Also no Crittenberger against his old team. I thought he looked good in CF when he has played.

These are pretty easily explained, I think:

Crittenberger has been unavailable for the past few games. Lopez has played a lot of 1B in the past and is a switch hitter, whereas Nicholson would have been left on left.

 

[Comebakatz3]

The problem is that there are a whole lot of bad indicators on offense:

Batting Average: 14th (.243)
Runs scored: 12th (60)
Home runs: 11th (7)
Doubles: 12th (12)
Slugging percentage: 14th (.385)
Walks: 13th (38)
Strikeouts: 9th (64)
OBP: 13th (.383) - this is one to note because we're still this low despite being hit by the 2nd most pitches.

Other than stolen bases and getting hit by pitches, UK is not doing great offensively compared to the rest of the SEC. Big caveat here is that it is early and UK has played a tougher schedule to some degree than most. By that, I mean that while I wouldn't say UK has played top quality opponents (0 quad 1 games), they've, on average, played higher quality than many other SEC teams. For instance, UT played and beat a top 25 team in Texas Tech. However, on average they've played teams with an average RPI of 147. Meanwile, UK's opponents have an average RPI of 124. Some teams, like UT, have also played 9 games, but on a lot of the categories, UK is well behind.

So, these stats are concerning, but not yet a reason to throw the baby out with the bathwater.

Fielding is certainly a concern. UK ranks 13th in fielding percentage right now. However, they have 10 double plays, which is first in the SEC, by a pretty large margin. Concerning is that we haven't picked off anyone in 9 attempts.

UK pitching is doing pretty well. 6th in the SEC with ERA at 3.38, but our opponent average against could be better as we're 10th there. As I mentioned at least once before, UK is not getting a ton of strikeouts. Just 62, which is last in the SEC by a pretty wide margin of 9 strikeouts (Arkansas has 113). Still, some good things to like there with those stats.

It's early. These are things to keep an eye on. UK should still (IMO) do all right in league play as I think by all intents and purposes they have a fairly reasonable SEC schedule, especially to start. UK could have 6+ wins to start league play as they get UGA at home, Missouri on the road, and Ole Miss on the road. Missouri is painfully bad. How and why they hired Kerrick Jackson, a guy with a 79-97 record as a head coach is absolutely baffling. Ole Miss is also terrible. The fact that they won a title and now Bianco has them wallowing in basically last place is as baffling as Missouri hiring a guy with a losing record to be their head coach. Georgia is raking right now, but their pitching isn't all that great, and UK always seems to play them fairly well.

All in all, I am not getting too high or too low on the results right now. There are some things we need to improve upon and I think that will come in some instances (pitching and defense) and I think the bats can get a bit better. Still won't be a ton of pop in them, but I think we will get that batting average up to something more reasonable.

 

[briarcreek]

These are pretty easily explained, I think:

Crittenberger has been unavailable for the past few games. Lopez has played a lot of 1B in the past and is a switch hitter, whereas Nicholson would have been left on left.

Is Crittenberger’s issue a long term one?

 

[Comebakatz3]

Is Critteberger’s issue a long term one?

Would be nice to get some more injury type reports. Seems we always hear about these type of injuries quite randomly instead of knowing that someone might be unavailable.

 

[Tskware]

I said before the season it felt like we were 2 pitchers short, and I still agree with that.

The offense hasn’t been that good but a lot of guys have played and I’m sure when they’re playing consistently they’ll begin having more success.

It seems like there are a lot of transfer hitters and not enough pitchers. Very odd to have this many hitters to choose from but this few pitchers.

I think the defense will be fine when everyone is in a regular spot. The defense can not be as good as last year and still be the best in the SEC.

I went to half the game last night and franklly was impressed with the staff, which were backups, and yet about 6 or 7 pitchers combined to throw our 2nd SO of the season. I know Hayden Smith's parents, so was pleased to see him come into the game in the 5th inning. Kid is LH and has a wicked breaking ball, got a DP to get out of the inning with only 12 pitches.

Actually, defense turned several DPs last night, think the defense will be fine. Just need Travis Smith and Mason Moore to pitch to their potential, and I think UK will be pretty solid on the mound.

Obviously, with the caveat that you don't really know what you have until you start playing SEC. Whole different level of competition when conference play starts.

 

[backinky2018]

The problem is that there are a whole lot of bad indicators on offense:

Batting Average: 14th (.243)
Runs scored: 12th (60)
Home runs: 11th (7)
Doubles: 12th (12)
Slugging percentage: 14th (.385)
Walks: 13th (38)
Strikeouts: 9th (64)
OBP: 13th (.383) - this is one to note because we're still this low despite being hit by the 2nd most pitches.

Other than stolen bases and getting hit by pitches, UK is not doing great offensively compared to the rest of the SEC. Big caveat here is that it is early and UK has played a tougher schedule to some degree than most. By that, I mean that while I wouldn't say UK has played top quality opponents (0 quad 1 games), they've, on average, played higher quality than many other SEC teams. For instance, UT played and beat a top 25 team in Texas Tech. However, on average they've played teams with an average RPI of 147. Meanwile, UK's opponents have an average RPI of 124. Some teams, like UT, have also played 9 games, but on a lot of the categories, UK is well behind.

So, these stats are concerning, but not yet a reason to throw the baby out with the bathwater.

Fielding is certainly a concern. UK ranks 13th in fielding percentage right now. However, they have 10 double plays, which is first in the SEC, by a pretty large margin. Concerning is that we haven't picked off anyone in 9 attempts.

UK pitching is doing pretty well. 6th in the SEC with ERA at 3.38, but our opponent average against could be better as we're 10th there. As I mentioned at least once before, UK is not getting a ton of strikeouts. Just 62, which is last in the SEC by a pretty wide margin of 9 strikeouts (Arkansas has 113). Still, some good things to like there with those stats.

It's early. These are things to keep an eye on. UK should still (IMO) do all right in league play as I think by all intents and purposes they have a fairly reasonable SEC schedule, especially to start. UK could have 6+ wins to start league play as they get UGA at home, Missouri on the road, and Ole Miss on the road. Missouri is painfully bad. How and why they hired Kerrick Jackson, a guy with a 79-97 record as a head coach is absolutely baffling. Ole Miss is also terrible. The fact that they won a title and now Bianco has them wallowing in basically last place is as baffling as Missouri hiring a guy with a losing record to be their head coach. Georgia is raking right now, but their pitching isn't all that great, and UK always seems to play them fairly well.

All in all, I am not getting too high or too low on the results right now. There are some things we need to improve upon and I think that will come in some instances (pitching and defense) and I think the bats can get a bit better. Still won't be a ton of pop in them, but I think we will get that batting average up to something more reasonable.

Excellent points all around.

Duly noted on the schedule. I think it's critical that UK win each of the first three series b/c it gets much tougher after that.

I hope that the home fans turn out for the Georgia series, even though we will be in the thick of march madness. Mizzou and Ole Miss are bad, but they're still SEC road games so it will be a great feat to win those series.

 

[Seamhead_Ninja]

Missouri is the ultimate "trap" series on the years you have to go there. It's a terrible facility with no atmosphere to speak off. Got to make your own juice there.

 

[ATLCat15]

I may be in the minority here, but with the way Herrera has been at the plate I don’t really see a spot for Crittenberger. Certainly a quality depth piece, but he’s behind McCarthy, Herrera, Schramm and Waldschmidt once he gets cleared to play defensively. It’s a small sample size, but Cameron seems like he can track it down and might be that late inning defensive replacement as well.

Nicholson needs AB’s because of his power threat, but the trend he is on I think it’s entirely possible that he loses that job to Lopez and that gives guys like Church and Small a chance to get the DH looks based on the pitcher. I feel like this weekend is huge for Nicholson because if he doesn’t start hitting some decisions have to be made. Hopefully the day off was helpful.