Warning: Long post.
It’s generally accepted that Cal had one of the greatest 8 year coaching sprees in modern day history to start his UK career, and has cratered ever since. It got me thinking how razor thin the edges in CBB are for those two things to both be generally accepted around here.
2010 - If Patrick Patterson decides to stay in the draft after averaging 18/10 the previous year, this team doesn’t become the juggernaut it was.
2011 - Brandon Knight hits a game winner against Princeton in the first round and another against Ohio St in the 3rd round or else that season is looked on differently.
2012 - Terrence Jones flip flops on his commitment to Washington and comes to UK instead. Without him in 2011, we don’t make the Final 4, and without him returning to UK despite being a lottery pick after the year, we sure as hell don’t win the championship in 2012 without him.
2013 - Doomed year could have been totally different if Nerlens never gets injured.
2014 - We only score 56 pts in the first round against K St, but win, then squeak by undefeated Wichita St, only for Aaron Harrison to hit 3 game winners in a row to make the championship game.
2015 - This year was just dominant. Not too many things could have rocked the boat. If anything, the shot clock violation against Wisconsin prevents us from being the rightful champs.
2016 - Honestly an overlooked team in Cal’s era. Finished the year #5 in efficiency, lost in the second round despite the #1 recruit in the nation (Skal) being trash all year long.
2017 - A UNC game-winner away from a final 4.
This is where things started going downhill according to most of us.
2018 - If PJ just goes 12-20 from the line instead of 8-20, we win, and play 11 seed Loyola Chicago to go to the Final 4
2019 - A great team. We’d already steamrolled Auburn twice that year, and then lose in overtime in the Elite 8 to prevent us another Final 4
2020 - Covid hits when the team was on a 13-2 stretch playing as well as anyone in the country.
2021 - Cade Cunningham apparently commits on his visit, then backs out of it leaving us with Askew. Then Clarke gets injured and things spiral from there. If those two things don’t happen, this coulda been a top 10 team.
2022 - Doug Edert hits a wild runner that hits the rim 5 times to tie it up at the end of regulation and St. Peters beats us in overtime. They go on to the Elite 8 where they lose to 8 seed UNC who we had already stomped that year. One of those 5 bounces on the rim goes differently, and you could easily have seen us making the Final 4.
2023 - If Shaedon Sharpe doesn’t find his diploma up his ass a month before the season starts, our guard depth issues are solved and we’re the most talented team in the nation.
2024 - If Oscar and Reeves return, we’ll have the talent of a top 5 team. If they don’t, we could miss the tournament.
Kinda crazy every year, success or failure is determined based off a couple bounces of the ball, or one or two 50/50 decisions that an 18 year old is making. You could easily have seen a few of them in Cal’s first 8 years going the opposite way and people would have been fed up with him early in his tenure. On the other hand, you could just as easily see PJ hitting free throws, us beating Auburn a 3rd time, Covid never stopping Maxey/Quick/Rich from going on a run, OK St never hiring Cade's brother, beating St. Peters, and Sharpe staying and we could be talking about another ~4/5 Final 4s in the last 7 years.
I do think Cal has lost a step, and I crave another Final 4 as much as the rest of you. Just figured I’d share some perspective because it's almost as likely that we never got to experience the beautiful peaks of the early 2010s as it is that we're talking about the last 7 years as being an incredible run of dominance. I’m a Cat for life and I’ll cheer for whoever comes after Cal just as hard as I cheer for him, but I certainly hope this year we reverse the trend of these 50/50 decisions going against us and we look at this year as the start of another magical run.
It’s generally accepted that Cal had one of the greatest 8 year coaching sprees in modern day history to start his UK career, and has cratered ever since. It got me thinking how razor thin the edges in CBB are for those two things to both be generally accepted around here.
2010 - If Patrick Patterson decides to stay in the draft after averaging 18/10 the previous year, this team doesn’t become the juggernaut it was.
2011 - Brandon Knight hits a game winner against Princeton in the first round and another against Ohio St in the 3rd round or else that season is looked on differently.
2012 - Terrence Jones flip flops on his commitment to Washington and comes to UK instead. Without him in 2011, we don’t make the Final 4, and without him returning to UK despite being a lottery pick after the year, we sure as hell don’t win the championship in 2012 without him.
2013 - Doomed year could have been totally different if Nerlens never gets injured.
2014 - We only score 56 pts in the first round against K St, but win, then squeak by undefeated Wichita St, only for Aaron Harrison to hit 3 game winners in a row to make the championship game.
2015 - This year was just dominant. Not too many things could have rocked the boat. If anything, the shot clock violation against Wisconsin prevents us from being the rightful champs.
2016 - Honestly an overlooked team in Cal’s era. Finished the year #5 in efficiency, lost in the second round despite the #1 recruit in the nation (Skal) being trash all year long.
2017 - A UNC game-winner away from a final 4.
This is where things started going downhill according to most of us.
2018 - If PJ just goes 12-20 from the line instead of 8-20, we win, and play 11 seed Loyola Chicago to go to the Final 4
2019 - A great team. We’d already steamrolled Auburn twice that year, and then lose in overtime in the Elite 8 to prevent us another Final 4
2020 - Covid hits when the team was on a 13-2 stretch playing as well as anyone in the country.
2021 - Cade Cunningham apparently commits on his visit, then backs out of it leaving us with Askew. Then Clarke gets injured and things spiral from there. If those two things don’t happen, this coulda been a top 10 team.
2022 - Doug Edert hits a wild runner that hits the rim 5 times to tie it up at the end of regulation and St. Peters beats us in overtime. They go on to the Elite 8 where they lose to 8 seed UNC who we had already stomped that year. One of those 5 bounces on the rim goes differently, and you could easily have seen us making the Final 4.
2023 - If Shaedon Sharpe doesn’t find his diploma up his ass a month before the season starts, our guard depth issues are solved and we’re the most talented team in the nation.
2024 - If Oscar and Reeves return, we’ll have the talent of a top 5 team. If they don’t, we could miss the tournament.
Kinda crazy every year, success or failure is determined based off a couple bounces of the ball, or one or two 50/50 decisions that an 18 year old is making. You could easily have seen a few of them in Cal’s first 8 years going the opposite way and people would have been fed up with him early in his tenure. On the other hand, you could just as easily see PJ hitting free throws, us beating Auburn a 3rd time, Covid never stopping Maxey/Quick/Rich from going on a run, OK St never hiring Cade's brother, beating St. Peters, and Sharpe staying and we could be talking about another ~4/5 Final 4s in the last 7 years.
I do think Cal has lost a step, and I crave another Final 4 as much as the rest of you. Just figured I’d share some perspective because it's almost as likely that we never got to experience the beautiful peaks of the early 2010s as it is that we're talking about the last 7 years as being an incredible run of dominance. I’m a Cat for life and I’ll cheer for whoever comes after Cal just as hard as I cheer for him, but I certainly hope this year we reverse the trend of these 50/50 decisions going against us and we look at this year as the start of another magical run.
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