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NIL and reed

Wildcats1st

Wildcats1st

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Sep 16, 2017
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It seems to me that reed Shepard is the epitome of guys who would benefit more financially by staying in college for three years than going pro. The nil for this guy will be open season. Never has UK had a player like him that is legacy of both parents who were stats. Reed can be a true Kentucky star. The kind of guy to lead the program and be a hero in the bluegrass. With the open season nil he should command millions easy in Kentucky. This seems to be the type of player to benefit most from nil.

If we have reed 3 years we will win a title in convinced. Cal was trying to sub in his victory cigars and reed knowing there was no stoppage or timeout being called committed a foul to get his teammates in the game. I’ll be honest if someone came and said “we have reed for 3 years if you chip in 500$ hell maybe even a 1000$” I would do it. This guy understands Kentucky basketball better than anyone on the court or benches. Maybe more than any of us. It’s been engrained in him to the point he is so aware of making everyone around him great. What a helluva kid so happy we have him. He could revitalize UK basketball. He has the aptitude to take us to a title in-spite of coaching. Hell cal may even learn a thing or two from him. He’s the type of guy to have profound impact on his team like no other. He ll never be an nba all star but three years in Lexington and he will be perhaps the most iconic player ever at Kentucky.
 
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MbergCat said:
I'm picking up what you're putting down.
Click to expand...
Look at it like this. Reeds draft stock will improve every season hes in college. As he matures he could be top 5 pick after his junior year. Making nil money in the process? No brainer
 
Wildcats1st said:
Look at it like this. Reeds draft stock will improve every season hes in college. As he matures he could be top 5 pick after his junior year. Making nil money in the process? No brainer
Click to expand...
That’s not necessarily correct. The longer you’re in school, the more the NBA picks apart your game.

Also, the 10th pick in the draft in 2023 makes a $4.5 million/year ($9 million total) in his first 2 years. The more important number is that draft position makes $6.1 million if they play a 4th year and $9 million if they play a 5th year. The longer Reed stays in college, the longer he pushes back that 4th and 5th year.

I agree that his NIL would be killer, I don’t think it’s enough to offset what he would make in the NBA to move his dream back 2 years. Imo, the financial aspect of the decision won’t play a huge role if he’s a lottery pick after this year.
 
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Wildcats1st said:
Look at it like this. Reeds draft stock will improve every season hes in college. As he matures he could be top 5 pick after his junior year. Making nil money in the process? No brainer
Click to expand...
Or will it?
Grayson Allen’s stock went down each year he stayed in school. The longer you are in school the more teams can see your flaws, the more they can think you’ve hit your ceiling; they like thinking they can make you 2X as good as you are now.
Now Reed is a different type player than Allen.
Really I think it will come down to what Jeff and Stacy think is best for him, that he will listen to them, at least this spring.
 
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Lillard and VanVleet both played 4 years of college. Curry played 3. Some how, some way it has worked out for those guys.

If I were Reed, I would enjoy my time at UK while earning millions. I would stick around and be an All American and national champion.

I would arrive in the NBA ready to contribute immediately and wouldn’t worry too much about draft position.

Falling later in the draft to a better team wouldn’t be the end of the world, if it turned out that way. Especially for the kind of player that part of his magic is making great players look even better when he plays beside them.
 
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I notice that it frequently written that Reed doesn’t need the money. While I am reasonably sure that his parents are well off by Kentucky standards it in no way compares to a high draft NBA contract. Also staying in school delays that second professional contract.
 
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Wildcats1st said:
It seems to me that reed Shepard is the epitome of guys who would benefit more financially by staying in college for three years than going pro. The nil for this guy will be open season. Never has UK had a player like him that is legacy of both parents who were stats. Reed can be a true Kentucky star. The kind of guy to lead the program and be a hero in the bluegrass. With the open season nil he should command millions easy in Kentucky. This seems to be the type of player to benefit most from nil.

If we have reed 3 years we will win a title in convinced. Cal was trying to sub in his victory cigars and reed knowing there was no stoppage or timeout being called committed a foul to get his teammates in the game. I’ll be honest if someone came and said “we have reed for 3 years if you chip in 500$ hell maybe even a 1000$” I would do it. This guy understands Kentucky basketball better than anyone on the court or benches. Maybe more than any of us. It’s been engrained in him to the point he is so aware of making everyone around him great. What a helluva kid so happy we have him. He could revitalize UK basketball. He has the aptitude to take us to a title in-spite of coaching. Hell cal may even learn a thing or two from him. He’s the type of guy to have profound impact on his team like no other. He ll never be an nba all star but three years in Lexington and he will be perhaps the most iconic player ever at Kentucky.
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I hope he makes $2 million in NIL for next season. He deserves it.
 
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I’m just enjoying watching him play while we have him here. If we get a year two out of him, we will all be thrilled. If he stays three. Then yeah, his name will be in the rafters. Especially if he can graduate in that time.
 
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The thing with Reed is, his margin of error is much more thin than guys who are 6’6” with 40 inch verticals.

Players with all the measurables are drafted early because the league believes they can mold them into players.

Reed is already a player. He has intangibles that can’t be taught, but he also isn’t going to be 6’6” with a 40 inch vertical.

I don’t think it’s as simple as strike while the iron is hot with a kid like Reed. I think his best bet is to join the league when he feels he’s ready to contribute at a high level.

If that’s next summer, then so be it. I think another year or two would do him a lot of good though.
 
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I'd chip in a few hundred for another year of Reed. If you throw in some sort of signed memorbilia, at various levels per your NIL donation, you could get a lot of fans. $100 gets you a signed photo, $200 gets you a signed basketball, what have you.

I can never expect a title, no matter who we have on the roster, but Sophomore/Junior Reed is going to win us a lot of games, a lot of BIG match ups, and likely get some sort of collection of hardware (Final4s, title game appearance, and maybe that title).
 
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nssdigitalchumps said:
Going to class + basketball + getting paid = college

basketball + gettting paid + dream job = NBA

That would be a no brainer.
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As long as you don’t figure in:

15,000 girls on campus, a third of them hot, conservatively over 30,000 more of that kind near your age in Lexington at large, all the single ones want you, most of the taken ones do too = college

A smaller number of hot girls among fans and groupies of your team, most of them only after the max-contract stars, a few of them will know you exist, some of those may even be into a relatively short white kid = NBA

For those with more traditional priorities it’s a different kind of no-brainer.
 
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There have been a lot of potential first round players come back and are doing alright. How many ex pros said they wished they had of stayed in school longer, that’s before NIL. Three or four years at Kentucky and he will be pretty well off, and he will always be taken care of in Kentucky no matter what happens. Some college players don’t let money determine their lifestyle by the temptations of more money right off the bat as opposed to staying in school and enjoy being a college student. The dog eat dog world of the NBA where you have people trying to take your job all the time and being away from family a lot isn’t always the most appealing thing in life.
 
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JonathanW said:
Or will it?
Grayson Allen’s stock went down each year he stayed in school. The longer you are in school the more teams can see your flaws, the more they can think you’ve hit your ceiling; they like thinking they can make you 2X as good as you are now.
Now Reed is a different type player than Allen.
Really I think it will come down to what Jeff and Stacy think is best for him, that he will listen to them, at least this spring.
Click to expand...
This. If his game looks exactly the same next year as it does this yeah the NBA will start to think he has less “potential” and upside. Unfortunately that’s how it works. If he was projected outside the lottery you could argue a year 2 could push into the lottery. But a JR year is almost always a negative from draft status (that’s not to say a JR or SR year can’t develop and. help a guy stick in the NBA long term but their draft stock likely isn’t increasing if they were already highly projected as a freshmen).

Shep is projected top 10….hes going. Mayyyyybbbee could be convinced for a year 2 but year 3 is pie in the sky stuff
 
As much as I’d love to have Reed back, he gone if he’s projected as a lottery pick by the time the season ends. He could make a lot in NIL, but as others have pointed out, it’s not close to what his NBA career earnings could be even if he doesn’t get a 2nd contract (which I fully expect he will)
 
What I’m saying is Reed is the type who might miss his second contract if he leaves early, lands with a bad organization, and gets buried behind some more traditionally athletic prospects.

There’s a lot to be said for being a capable NBA player from the time you set foot in the league. Those guys get their second contracts because they are useful, not based on a future maybe.

TyTy Washington is a great recent example of this (the negative side of early entry). Slipped to late first round, and now is playing on a 2-Way contract. Hardly breaking the bank.
 
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JonathanW said:
Or will it?
Grayson Allen’s stock went down each year he stayed in school. The longer you are in school the more teams can see your flaws, the more they can think you’ve hit your ceiling; they like thinking they can make you 2X as good as you are now.
Now Reed is a different type player than Allen.
Really I think it will come down to what Jeff and Stacy think is best for him, that he will listen to them, at least this spring.
Click to expand...
Grayson Allen is also a solid NBA player with $20M in career earnings so far, and another $9M for next season on his current contract. The risk of falling in the draft is sometimes balanced out by being more prepared to contribute once you arrive and the advantage of going to a team that drafts later which usually means more established talent already on the roster.

Who knows what Reed will decide, but it would certainly be difficult to pass up the paycheck that the NBA could offer. Even with NIL it will still be a difficult decision for him. If he does decide to return the NIL options could help offset some lost NBA money, but I doubt the decision to come back (if that happens) will have as much to do with financial concerns.
 
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jbne222 said:
As much as I’d love to have Reed back, he gone if he’s projected as a lottery pick by the time the season ends. He could make a lot in NIL, but as others have pointed out, it’s not close to what his NBA career earnings could be even if he doesn’t get a 2nd contract (which I fully expect he will)
Click to expand...
He'll have NIL in the NBA also.
A lot of posters in this thread are putting an "ordinary dude" spin on Reed's potential draft decision.
Reed is s anything but ordinary, he's a 1%'er.
No one on this board has ever been in or had a child in Reed's situation.
When it's time to make an informed decision, I'm sure the Sheppard's are not going to rely on friends and family for advice.
Jeff can get his calls answered from just about anybody in the basketball world and get advice from players and parents who have been in the same situation.
 
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Wildcats1st said:
It seems to me that reed Shepard is the epitome of guys who would benefit more financially by staying in college for three years than going pro. The nil for this guy will be open season. Never has UK had a player like him that is legacy of both parents who were stats. Reed can be a true Kentucky star. The kind of guy to lead the program and be a hero in the bluegrass. With the open season nil he should command millions easy in Kentucky. This seems to be the type of player to benefit most from nil.

If we have reed 3 years we will win a title in convinced. Cal was trying to sub in his victory cigars and reed knowing there was no stoppage or timeout being called committed a foul to get his teammates in the game. I’ll be honest if someone came and said “we have reed for 3 years if you chip in 500$ hell maybe even a 1000$” I would do it. This guy understands Kentucky basketball better than anyone on the court or benches. Maybe more than any of us. It’s been engrained in him to the point he is so aware of making everyone around him great. What a helluva kid so happy we have him. He could revitalize UK basketball. He has the aptitude to take us to a title in-spite of coaching. Hell cal may even learn a thing or two from him. He’s the type of guy to have profound impact on his team like no other. He ll never be an nba all star but three years in Lexington and he will be perhaps the most iconic player ever at Kentucky.
Click to expand...
As much as I would like Reed to stay at Kentucky for at least three seasons, the possibility of that is slim to none. I can see him possibly a top ten pick in the NBA draft after this season.
 
SkyPrince1 said:
History says there's a better chance of his draft stock going down the longer he stays in college.
Click to expand...
I don’t think so. There’s a lot reed can do to go from a late first more likely second round pick now to top ten or top 5. He may grow, he will develop into a man. He’s not the typical oad if he’s a second rounder now please he has a ton of room to grow
 
sportspm said:
Would you rather make 5 mil per year and be happy or 10 mil and be lonely and miserable?
If you say option 2 is impossible l, why do movie stars commit suicide?
Click to expand...
I don't think it's impossible. But I do't think he'll be lonely and miserable if he goes to the NBA.

I'm sure there's a few lonely/miserable NBA guys. I don't think most of them are that way.

I'm sure there are also some lonely and miserable guys in college sports.
 
Wildcats1st said:
“we have reed for 3 years if you chip in 500$ hell maybe even a 1000$”
Click to expand...
I’m about to make a sizable donation to the NIL fund under the instructions it’s all to go to Reed’s NIL deal. If you send me $1000 I’ll add it to what I’m giving and make sure it gets into the right hands. I promise.
 

NBA Rookie Scale - RealGM

NBA Rookie Scale - RealGM
basketball.realgm.com

Gotta beat the numbers there. Look at the first three years of each pick, as the first two years are totally guaranteed, the third is an option that’s almost always picked up. Year 4 is where they either give you the max, give you one more year, or let you loose. Same with the 5th year.

Any year spent in school delays that 4th year extension. So for Reed to stay two more years, his NIL should equal or surpass the amount in the first 3 years of the NBA deal, plus more to cover an extension. Assuming he’s the 15th pick, you’d probably need it to be a 2 year, 10-15million dollar contract (of NIL) to make it worthwhile to not go. It’s a lot of money. I don’t see it happening.
 
StubbornPenny said:

NBA Rookie Scale - RealGM

NBA Rookie Scale - RealGM
basketball.realgm.com

Gotta beat the numbers there. Look at the first three years of each pick, as the first two years are totally guaranteed, the third is an option that’s almost always picked up. Year 4 is where they either give you the max, give you one more year, or let you loose. Same with the 5th year.

Any year spent in school delays that 4th year extension. So for Reed to stay two more years, his NIL should equal or surpass the amount in the first 3 years of the NBA deal, plus more to cover an extension. Assuming he’s the 15th pick, you’d probably need it to be a 2 year, 10-15million dollar contract (of NIL) to make it worthwhile to not go. It’s a lot of money. I don’t see it happening.
Click to expand...
I haven’t seen reed high on any draft boards some he’s not even there. Why do you guys think he is gonna be a lotto this year or even close? There’s 4 guys on his current team who will be drafted before him. I don’t see reed bolting to be a marginal first rounder that will always be there for him and all he can do is move up from there. But again what’s the highest projection for him? He’s having a great season but the draft is packed pretty solid this year. I see no way he comes close to lottery and probably at best is a late first rounder. He’s gonna make 3-4 million a year at UK AT LEAST with NIL. And what’s more valuable to him? A few million he will recover over his career or the experience of becoming one of the most iconic athletes in UK history? I’d say mom and dad would prefer 3 years of watching reed in blue and white in rupp vs watching reed on TV. Something tells me he’s gonna want to be a kid and has the resources longer than most college players. NIL changes the calculus dramatically
 
NIL doesn't work like described here. My company uses two UK players for advertisement, (NIL). Reed is one of them. I would guess he is raking in the NIL money. I've seen estimates but they are estimates.

Reed is a first round pick. That's generational money. If the argument is over money the NBA is going to win out every time. He can make the same sponsorship money and collect an NBA salary.

The decision will have to be over other than money. If there is a player that might forgo the NBA for a year or two it's Reed Sheppard.
 
Wildcats1st said:
It seems to me that reed Shepard is the epitome of guys who would benefit more financially by staying in college for three years than going pro. The nil for this guy will be open season. Never has UK had a player like him that is legacy of both parents who were stats. Reed can be a true Kentucky star. The kind of guy to lead the program and be a hero in the bluegrass. With the open season nil he should command millions easy in Kentucky. This seems to be the type of player to benefit most from nil.

If we have reed 3 years we will win a title in convinced. Cal was trying to sub in his victory cigars and reed knowing there was no stoppage or timeout being called committed a foul to get his teammates in the game. I’ll be honest if someone came and said “we have reed for 3 years if you chip in 500$ hell maybe even a 1000$” I would do it. This guy understands Kentucky basketball better than anyone on the court or benches. Maybe more than any of us. It’s been engrained in him to the point he is so aware of making everyone around him great. What a helluva kid so happy we have him. He could revitalize UK basketball. He has the aptitude to take us to a title in-spite of coaching. Hell cal may even learn a thing or two from him. He’s the type of guy to have profound impact on his team like no other. He ll never be an nba all star but three years in Lexington and he will be perhaps the most iconic player ever at Kentucky.
Click to expand...
I rewound the game and pointed out Shep's generous move to my wife. He has such a presence of mind on the court it's amazing.
 
If he is thinking long term, I mean 20-30 years from now long term, the smart move is to stay at UK for at least 1 more year.

The sky is the limit for him within the state of Kentucky. Solidify his financial base within the state. He will have business opportunities and even political opportunities here in the Commonwealth.

The NBA can wait and in the long run staying in state and growing his brand here is the best strategy, IMHO.

He has something that most other players here don’t have. He is a double legacy. He is from Kentucky. He is basically royalty.

He should take advantage of this.
 
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Wildcats1st said:
I haven’t seen reed high on any draft boards some he’s not even there. Why do you guys think he is gonna be a lotto this year or even close? There’s 4 guys on his current team who will be drafted before him. I don’t see reed bolting to be a marginal first rounder that will always be there for him and all he can do is move up from there. But again what’s the highest projection for him? He’s having a great season but the draft is packed pretty solid this year. I see no way he comes close to lottery and probably at best is a late first rounder. He’s gonna make 3-4 million a year at UK AT LEAST with NIL. And what’s more valuable to him? A few million he will recover over his career or the experience of becoming one of the most iconic athletes in UK history? I’d say mom and dad would prefer 3 years of watching reed in blue and white in rupp vs watching reed on TV. Something tells me he’s gonna want to be a kid and has the resources longer than most college players. NIL changes the calculus dramatically
Click to expand...

Literally listening to KSR right now where they’re discussing a mock that had him at 6 even after UNCW. Yahoo has him at 17 as of four days ago. Just looked at 3 other sites, 17, 9 and 15. So he’s in the vicinity. This is also a weak NBA draft. All the other stuff is nice, but not enough to combat 10-15 million guaranteed dollars.
 
Aike said:
Lillard and VanVleet both played 4 years of college. Curry played 3. Some how, some way it has worked out for those guys.

If I were Reed, I would enjoy my time at UK while earning millions. I would stick around and be an All American and national champion.

I would arrive in the NBA ready to contribute immediately and wouldn’t worry too much about draft position.

Falling later in the draft to a better team wouldn’t be the end of the world, if it turned out that way. Especially for the kind of player that part of his magic is making great players look even better when he plays beside them.
Click to expand...
Another great post by Aike ! Agree, 100 % ! GO 'CATS ! ! !
 
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