ADVERTISEMENT

NFL Draft

G

gamecockcat

All-SEC
Oct 29, 2004
9,175
9,609
113
Will they continue to overvalue QBs even though, historically, something like 75% of 1st QBs turn out to be busts?

I'm not really sold on any of the QBs this year. Williams could very well be a system QB, Maye was somewhat underwhelming at UNC, Daniels was very dangerous but did a lot with his legs which may not translate to the NFL, Nix doesn't have the arm talent scouts look for, Penix gets hurt and takes too many chances, etc.

I still look for 4 or 5 in the first round. Wash, rinse, repeat.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Girthang
gamecockcat said:
Will they continue to overvalue QBs even though, historically, something like 75% of 1st QBs turn out to be busts?

I'm not really sold on any of the QBs this year. Williams could very well be a system QB, Maye was somewhat underwhelming at UNC, Daniels was very dangerous but did a lot with his legs which may not translate to the NFL, Nix doesn't have the arm talent scouts look for, Penix gets hurt and takes too many chances, etc.

I still look for 4 or 5 in the first round. Wash, rinse, repeat.
Click to expand...

Just like most of their 59 drafts the Falcons wasted another 1st round pick on something they didn't need.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Girthang and gamecockcat
gamecockcat said:
Will they continue to overvalue QBs even though, historically, something like 75% of 1st QBs turn out to be busts?

I'm not really sold on any of the QBs this year. Williams could very well be a system QB, Maye was somewhat underwhelming at UNC, Daniels was very dangerous but did a lot with his legs which may not translate to the NFL, Nix doesn't have the arm talent scouts look for, Penix gets hurt and takes too many chances, etc.

I still look for 4 or 5 in the first round. Wash, rinse, repeat.
Click to expand...

Very well said.

Bears as expected took Williams, which seems like a downgrade from Fields. They kept their name in the headlines for a while tho, so the admin will be happy about that. Steelers finally drafted an OL in the first round after needing to do it for 2-3 years.

That was a LOOOONG broadcast. Glad I just checked it online every now and then. Worse than watching a game and then some
 
Given the era of football, I think you have to take QB if there is one you like. Is what it is. The QB moves the entire program/franchise. No other position is anywhere near as valuable in any regard really. From ticket sales to how many points positions are worth on game day.

The GOAT made an excellent point on the Pat Mac show, saying that it's not necessarily a bad move to take a QB who could be available in the second round because you get a 5th year option with first rounders. There's no telling what the price for QBs 4-5 years from now will be.

Overall, I don't think this is a one off. We're in an offensive era of football that, if for nothing else, you need depth. Roughly 50 QBs played last year. You can't willy nilly just go get a QB off the practice squad or from another team like you can a lot of other positions.

The value and talent gaps are widening in the league at QB. Not only the starter, but back up. You have to have "the guy" but because the team is so dependent on the position and offense, you also have to have a dude who can hold the fort in a pinch.

I think 4-5 QBs early is going to become the norm.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: satcheluk
gamecockcat said:
Will they continue to overvalue QBs even though, historically, something like 75% of 1st QBs turn out to be busts?

I'm not really sold on any of the QBs this year. Williams could very well be a system QB, Maye was somewhat underwhelming at UNC, Daniels was very dangerous but did a lot with his legs which may not translate to the NFL, Nix doesn't have the arm talent scouts look for, Penix gets hurt and takes too many chances, etc.

I still look for 4 or 5 in the first round. Wash, rinse, repeat.
Click to expand...
I can understand Williams, Daniels and Maye.

But Penix.....dude crapped his pants off in title game and Pac 10 is a glorified flag football league

Then Bo Nix to Broncos....so you waive Russ Wilson, eat 86M in dead cap to then draft a guy who was not good at Auburn, then goes to the aformentioned Pac 10, runs read option and throws 5 yard passes, a few fade routes here and there...can't hit a 15 yard in route with is poor arm... And you think that is a good idea?

This the part of NFL I dn't get. I'd rather burn a pick in 3rd round on Spencer Rattler vs. top 10 pick on Bo Nix....but this is the NFL.
 
  • Like
Reactions: maysvilleky, CB3UK, gamecockcat and 1 other person
gamecockcat said:
Will they continue to overvalue QBs even though, historically, something like 75% of 1st QBs turn out to be busts?

I'm not really sold on any of the QBs this year. Williams could very well be a system QB, Maye was somewhat underwhelming at UNC, Daniels was very dangerous but did a lot with his legs which may not translate to the NFL, Nix doesn't have the arm talent scouts look for, Penix gets hurt and takes too many chances, etc.

I still look for 4 or 5 in the first round. Wash, rinse, repeat.
Click to expand...
As a data analysis/statistics nerd, I would argue QBs are not overvalued. In the NFL QBs disproportionately affect outcomes and that doesn't even take into account how they also attract free agent talent who want to come play for a team with a proven elite QB. The problem for teams is the evaluation which creates and wide variable of success vs not, but just about every NFL team has run the analytics and swinging and missing on QBs in the draft is worth the risk because their salaries are low and then they can be signed for long term contracts before they become free agents practically ensuring a decade of success. In the last 25 years nearly 40% of QBs drafted became franchise QBs, so just under a 2/5 chance. Given those statistics, I would argue they have been undervalued, but are starting to be picked at a more appropriate rate now that analytics and long term data sets are being used.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: BlueRaider22
I agree with Ktime and Satch. The crop of QB's this yr were very good prospects overall.....and Williams is one of the better prospects to come out in quite some time. Obviously this does not mean that any of them will/won't make it.

From my armchair, I think the NFL philosophy needs tweaking. To me, I don't know why they don't sell completely out for the most important position by far on the team. For example, if I were a new GM of a program who is going to take a QB high in the draft, I would plunder free agency of every offensive player. I would go into the draft and focus so much on the offense that I would neglect the defense. Our defense may suck for 1-2 yrs, but my new QB is going to be protected, handing the ball off to someone reliable, and throwing to a plethora of weapons. We may not be able to stop an opponent from scoring for a few yrs, but we're going to develop and find out what we have at QB. This is the Tim Couch issue, right?

I also would draft a later rd QB every 2-3 yrs. A late rd QB draft pick shouldn't threaten a franchise QB.....and you never know......you could find a Brady/Bledsoe situation.
 
  • Like
Reactions: K_TIME
I can't believe the QBs taken. I get Williams and Daniels (not saying I'm sold they will be stars, but at least defensible) but the rest were massive reaches for that early. All already very old for the draft with obvious warts, so the upside just isn't there like the usual young QB reaches.

Then you have McCaffrey drafted purely on pedigree lol.

Just terrible.
 
  • Like
Reactions: K_TIME and gamecockcat
bigblueinsanity said:
I can't believe the QBs taken. I get Williams and Daniels (not saying I'm sold they will be stars, but at least defensible) but the rest were massive reaches for that early. All already very old for the draft with obvious warts, so the upside just isn't there like the usual young QB reaches.

Then you have McCaffrey drafted purely on pedigree lol.

Just terrible.
Click to expand...
I was surprised with McCaffrey too. I mean he was a very good QB but not what I would call elite by any stretch. I personally have been a fan of Penix since he was at Indy. I think under a good QB coach he could develop into a high level NFL QB. However as many have pointed out, QB drafting is essentially a crap shoot.
 
Deeeefense said:
The Falcons just paid Cousins $180 M for 4 years then draft a QB - LOL!
Click to expand...

100m of it guranteed. Everyone can talk about poorly run franchises, the Falcons have a glorified building supply manager walking the sideline thinking he knows football, I am talking the owner.

You have to laugh, they just assured themselves of having no room to dip in the free agent market. But I knew it would be a wasted pick and knew it wouldn't be a former UGA player.
 
  • Like
Reactions: CastleRubric
Grumpyolddawg said:
100m of it guranteed. Everyone can talk about poorly run franchises, the Falcons have a glorified building supply manager walking the sideline thinking he knows football, I am talking the owner.

You have to laugh, they just assured themselves of having no room to dip in the free agent market. But I knew it would be a wasted pick and knew it wouldn't be a former UGA player.
Click to expand...

I loved penix in college but he's old, slight build, and a history of injuries. No way I'm taking him that high.

The age of these guys was my major issue. If they were 20-21 then yes. But these guys physically are already where they're going to be with little/no physical improvement/maturity.
 
Deeeefense said:
The Falcons just paid Cousins $180 M for 4 years then draft a QB - LOL!
Click to expand...
Penix is an older QB too, not a 3-year early entrant. If Atlanta wanted to gamble on a backup, then they should have just gone the Justin Fields route like every talking head thought they were going to do. It wouldn't have cost them much at all.

Now they have spent either A) too much free agent money, or B) valuable draft capital, on the same position. I don't care if they are looking down the road. You paid a late-30's QB to win NOW!
 
bigblueinsanity said:
I loved penix in college but he's old, slight build, and a history of injuries. No way I'm taking him that high.

The age of these guys was my major issue. If they were 20-21 then yes. But these guys physically are already where they're going to be with little/no physical improvement/maturity.
Click to expand...

All I can do is laugh, being a Falcon fan isn't easy. But you are dead on with everything. And I am sure they will follow up with a couple head scratchers today.
 
  • Like
Reactions: bigblueinsanity
That Falcons pick was beyond dumb. Defense is the obvious need so not only do they pass up a chance to trade down to acquire more picks and still get a defensive impact player, they take Pennix who wasn't even a threat to go until mid first and then piss off their starting QB in the process.

The Bills though weren't far behind them in being the dumbest of the night. This is a franchise in desperate need of receivers and yet, traded with THE CHIEFS to let them have a really good receiver. Then did it again with the Panthers.
 
  • Like
Reactions: bigblueinsanity
Deeeefense said:
The Falcons just paid Cousins $180 M for 4 years then draft a QB - LOL!
Click to expand...
It would be interesting on a team's part if they did that so they could get the rookie to his last year before he started and didn't have to pay much for his second contract. I'm sure the players association would pick up on that eventually.
 
Grumpyolddawg said:
100m of it guranteed. Everyone can talk about poorly run franchises, the Falcons have a glorified building supply manager walking the sideline thinking he knows football, I am talking the owner.

You have to laugh, they just assured themselves of having no room to dip in the free agent market. But I knew it would be a wasted pick and knew it wouldn't be a former UGA player.
Click to expand...


Arthur Blank - I remember the controversy of him being too engaged by being on the sidelines in and around the coach/players
 
Can't say the Falcons are any worse than the Broncos. Mortgaged their future to trade for Russell Wilson (huge contract and draft picks). Mortgaged their future further to hire Sean Payton (draft picks). Cut Wilson after Year 2, eating a huge pile of cash on the cap hit. Recently traded more draft capital to obtain Zach Wilson, a former #2 overall pick in the draft. Last night, draft Bo Nix who had a fine college career but was widely considered a Day 2 talent at #12 overall knowing that they have multiple holes, no cap space to sign free agents, no 2nd round pick this year and they just traded for a young QB. Why in all that is holy didn't they trade back for additional picks and try to fill in the holes in the roster rather than overreach for Nix at #12? If Nix is a 10-year QB, they're still not going anywhere in the postseason with the worst WR, TE and RB room in the NFL. Throw in a shaky OL, lack of edge rushers, a big need at ILB and secondary and one can only ask WTF were they thinking?

And, I think Nix may be fine. He's not Patrick Mahomes, though. And with a crappy OL and no weapons how good can he realistically be? The Wilson/Payton draft capital fiasco will haunt them for several more years as will the cap hit they took on Wilson's ridiculous contract.
 
bigblueinsanity said:
I can't believe the QBs taken.
Click to expand...
Me neither. There's probably a handful of guys that returned to college that are regretting their decisions because they probably would have been 1st rounders based on everybody that was taken so early.

Levis dropping last season probably scared a few folks, but who could have predicted how dumb the teams would have been this season over last year?
 
  • Like
Reactions: bigblueinsanity
PopesReignOverCardinals said:
Me neither. There's probably a handful of guys that returned to college that are regretting their decisions because they probably would have been 1st rounders based on everybody that was taken so early.

Levis dropping last season probably scared a few folks, but who could have predicted how dumb the teams would have been this season over last year?
Click to expand...

This year Levis would've been a top 5 pick for sure.
 
Grumpyolddawg said:
100m of it guranteed. Everyone can talk about poorly run franchises, the Falcons have a glorified building supply manager walking the sideline thinking he knows football, I am talking the owner.

You have to laugh, they just assured themselves of having no room to dip in the free agent market. But I knew it would be a wasted pick and knew it wouldn't be a former UGA player.
Click to expand...
Head scratcher for sure!
 
I like the fit in Buffalo for Davis. Matched up with the best QB in the NFL imo
 
7th round coming up and the only 2 Cats left on the board are Flax and Tayvion Robinson
 
Draft Picks (SEC)

Texas: 11
Alabama: 10
Georgia: 8
LSU/Missouri: 6
Auburn: 5
Kentucky/SCarolina/A&M: 4
Tennessee/Oklahoma/Ole Miss/State: 3
Arkansas: 2
Florida: 1
Vandy: 0
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

JRowland

FB Recruiting INSIDER NOTES

Replies
130
Views
8K
The House of Blue
fabcat
fabcat
Comebakatz3

Weekend 1 Thoughts

Replies
27
Views
1K
The On-Deck Circle - Baseball Forum
SeanCain
S
JRowland

Football What Ole Miss fans are saying...

Replies
40
Views
4K
The House of Blue
UKmatt1
U
JRowland

Football What Florida fans are saying

Replies
50
Views
6K
The House of Blue
EKUAlum05_v2.0
E
JRowland

FB Recruiting Monday Camp Notes

Replies
18
Views
3K
The House of Blue
Rock_Cat78
Rock_Cat78
ADVERTISEMENT

Latest posts

ADVERTISEMENT
Top Bottom
Back