Model Update Heading to Arkansas

[Montana81]

Don’t know if it’s the worst, but Michigan St. losing to Wright St. in 99-00 is one I found online.

I agree that losing to Oregon St. is problematic, and I question the mettle of any team taking a loss like that. But it was on the road, and we all know what a mess conference road games can become. I don’t think it’s as bad as our loss to UNCW.

Michigan State loss that game to Wright State but mateen cleaves was out. I remember that. He missed the game with us when we beat them in rupp that season too.

Also 2005 UNC lost to Santa Clara out in California but they were missing Raymond Felton.

To be fair to us, we were also missing our starting point guard against UNCW but we were playing at home.

 

[Aike]

Houston is staking their claim to the top spot right now.

 

[Montana81]

Houston is staking their claim to the top spot right now.

They look phenomenal. If Kelvin Sampson wasn’t already 68 years old…

Seeing him dominate at Houston has to be a real kick to the groin for IU fans. The stuff he got in trouble for isn’t even against the rules anymore.

That said i’m glad it appears there’s finally someone in the Big12 that hopefully wont just lay down for Kansas.

 

[Aike]

They look phenomenal. If Kelvin Sampson wasn’t already 68 years old…

Seeing him dominate at Houston has to be a real kick to the groin for IU fans. The stuff he got in trouble for isn’t even against the rules anymore.

That said i’m glad it appears there’s finally someone in the Big12 that hopefully wont just lay down for Kansas.

Big 12 is pretty strong this year. I would rank Houston and Kansas as serious title contenders, and ISU/BYU as very dangerous.

And it isn’t like the rest of the conference is chopped liver.

 

[the nail at the foul line]

You are completely unrealistic

 

[the nail at the foul line]

I think some of you might want to start believing in Iowa State.

 

[Elliott Tim]

Sorry dude, the transfer portal and NIL has your model stuck in the past. I think this year the winner and probably even the Final Four will be littered with "wow, didn't see this in my model" commentary.

I actually like this, to be honest. I'm tired of models and statistics saying "no team ranked blah blah blah in this category has ever won it all". I like the balance and competition. Now if only we had a coach that could capitalize on this new way of the game...

The day of consistent dominance has been replaced with: ( Now you can show me the money, and you don't have to hide it under the table ".

 

[Aike]

I think some of you might want to start believing in Iowa State.

Flawed (like everyone) but dangerous. No jinx.

 

[the nail at the foul line]

Flawed (like everyone) but dangerous. No jinx.

Who isn't flawed? Like you said. Houston can't score but might be the best team.

 

[Halodiego]

Tennessee is still Tennessee until they prove otherwise.

 

[jayhovah]

I think the biggest potential "flaw" in the rankings is USC at 81.

 

[Aike]

Tennessee is still Tennessee until they prove otherwise.

Tend to agree.

 

[Aike]

I think the biggest potential "flaw" in the rankings is USC at 81.

Nah. They’ve been mediocre and have played a weak schedule. Keep winning and they’ll move up. We made them look a lot better than they are.

 

[Montana81]

Nah. They’ve been mediocre and have played a weak schedule. Keep winning and they’ll move up. We made them look a lot better than they are.

I felt really confident going into that game. They really aren’t that good. Their best win before us was a 6 point home win against Mississippi State. They hadn’t played a single top 30 team going by computer rankings. And on paper there wasn’t anything they were particularly great at.

I don’t think we were prepared for their physicality. Their game plan seemed to be to physically bully us and see if the officials would make calls against their crowd and if we’d back down.

Shocker. That’s what most sec teams do and have done against us for ages. Hell, sometimes it even works for them in rupp.

 

[Aike]

I felt really confident going into that game. They really aren’t that good. Their best win before us was a 6 point home win against Mississippi State. They hadn’t played a single top 30 team going by computer rankings. And on paper there wasn’t anything they were particularly great at.

I don’t think we were prepared for their physicality. Their game plan seemed to be to physically bully us and see if the officials would make calls against their crowd and if we’d back down.

Shocker. That’s what most sec teams do and have done against us for ages. Hell, sometimes it even works for them in rupp.

Thing is, Georgia and ATM got physical too and we still scored well. I think Cal finally broke down and choked.

He couldn’t stand the way the game was going so he tried to match their physicality. Took an absolute beating, not surprisingly.

 

[Aike]

Arizona looked pretty good today winning at Oregon.

Got to keep in mind that Arizona has a point guard who has already led a team to a title game. That was a team that struggled all season.

 

[TheDude73]

Arizona looked pretty good today winning at Oregon.

Got to keep in mind that Arizona has a point guard who has already led a team to a title game. That was a team that struggled all season.

Methinks you are a closet Arizona fan....

 

[Aike]

Methinks you are a closet Arizona fan....

Na. Get a little tired of all the nonsense but whatever. It’s like people have never sat through a college basketball season and seen all the twists and turns.

 

[TheDude73]

Na. Get a little tired of all the nonsense but whatever. It’s like people have never sat through a college basketball season and seen all the twists and turns.

The twists and turns this year are going to be crazy.

 

[Aike]

The twists and turns this year are going to be crazy.

I’m really looking forward to seeing who is hot the last month this year. Definitely the kind of year an FAU type team could make a deep run.

 

[TheDude73]

I’m really looking forward to seeing who is hot the last month this year. Definitely the kind of year an FAU type team could make a deep run.

Indeed.

I am over the moon that I get to see three more games at Rupp after that Miami win, thanks to work trips.

Next week UF and UT. Then Ole Miss on the 13th.

I'm going to milk this work trip stuff as long as I can!

 

[Aike]

Indeed.

I am over the moon that I get to see three more games at Rupp after that Miami win, thanks to work trips.

Next week UF and UT. Then Ole Miss on the 13th.

I'm going to milk this work trip stuff as long as I can!

That’s cool!

 

[ralphdaltonfan]

I’m really looking forward to seeing who is hot the last month this year. Definitely the kind of year an FAU type team could make a deep run.

Well said. Also want to really track who is officiating the regions/games. Now that gambling has taken over, that matters far more than it should.

 

[TheDude73]

Well said. Also want to really track who is officiating the regions/games. Now that gambling has taken over, that matters far more than it should.

Yeah, tonight was just weird. The calls were bizarre.

I'm convinced time travel is a thing. And the Rooferee is the traveler.

 

[kywildcats4life]

You are completely unrealistic

Don't get offended so easily. Pull your panties back up.

 

[Aike]

Don't get offended so easily. Pull your panties back up.

Go away

 

[Aike]

Well said. Also want to really track who is officiating the regions/games. Now that gambling has taken over, that matters far more than it should.

Unfortunately, you are 100% right.

This is deep in the weeds, but it’s one of the problems when you fail to put the hammer down on teams.

Your metrics suffer, which translates into lower spreads. Lower spreads mean it’s easier to get cheated by the refs.

Being favored my 10 and winning by 7 only hurts a few wallets. But if you’re favored by 2, one crooked call can end your season.

 

[jayhovah]

Nah. They’ve been mediocre and have played a weak schedule. Keep winning and they’ll move up. We made them look a lot better than they are.

What’s the model say now?

 

[BigBlueFanGA]

I’ve done the math. I’m guessing you haven’t.

Nope, I haven't, but then I dont need a process to tell me a fish is dead. Sight and smell are sufficient.

I do appreciate what you're doing, I'm just not a fan of these type metrics. There are just too many variables at play.

 

[Aike]

What’s the model say now?

They moved up from 78 to 75.

Tennessee dropped from 3 to 7.


I still don’t think they are anything special, but if they keep winning ugly, they’ll keep creeping up.

 

[cats#1again]

Sorry dude, the transfer portal and NIL has your model stuck in the past. I think this year the winner and probably even the Final Four will be littered with "wow, didn't see this in my model" commentary.

I actually like this, to be honest. I'm tired of models and statistics saying "no team ranked blah blah blah in this category has ever won it all". I like the balance and competition. Now if only we had a coach that could capitalize on this new way of the game...

He may be... Top offense in the country is a good way to start

 

[Cats192]

I do think SC at 75 is awfully low. 18-3 with wins over Kentucky and Tennessee (@UT no less), is impressive.

 

[Padsfs07]

They moved up from 78 to 75.

Tennessee dropped from 3 to 7.


I still don’t think they are anything special, but if they keep winning ugly, they’ll keep creeping up.

That movement doesn't make sense. The jump up in the 70s should be larger than the fall for a top 10 team. The NET had USC go from 49 to 39 and UT go from 4 to 5.

 

[DreadLox]

A couple of years ago, a guy won the economics version of the Nobel Prize for the earthshaking insight that nobody can see the future. Once a model starts adding parameters to get it to match observations, it's katy bar the door. "With 4 parameters I can fit an elephant. and with 5, I can make him wiggle his trunk." People go nuts tinkering with predictive models. If there were good predictive models, there wouldn't be horse tracks and Las Vegas would still be a gas station.

 

[Caveman Catfan]

Cats have slipped from what I would call borderline contender to unlikely to compete for a championship.

Still time to right the ship, but they need to get their act together.

Arizona barely clinging to the top spot, but they’ve lost almost their entire cushion.

Top 16:

1. Arizona 3.03
2. Houston 2.98
3. Tennessee 2.68
4. Auburn 2.63
5. Iowa St. 2.62
6. Purdue 2.58
7. Connecticut 2.40
8. Alabama 2.28
9. Kansas 2.26
10. BYU 2.23
11. Marquette 1.88
12. Kentucky 1.85
13. Michigan St. 1.82
14. Colorado 1.78
15. Duke 1.72
16. North Carolina 1.71

Rest of SEC:

24. Mississippi St
37. Mississippi
44. Florida
60. LSU
74. ATM
78. Missouri
81. South Carolina
97. Georgia
111. Arkansas
168. Vanderbilt


I’ve got us favored by 7, which frankly I don’t trust the way we’ve been playing.

Tenn gets beat at home by unranked USCjr and UNC on the road to unranked GTech. Things look wide open to me.

 

[Aike]

That movement doesn't make sense. The jump up in the 70s should be larger than the fall for a top 10 team. The NET had USC go from 49 to 39 and UT go from 4 to 5.

This isn’t the Net. South Carolina does not fit the profile of a successful tournament team. If they make the tournament, I would expect them to lose the first game, based on their performance to date.

They probably wouldn’t be a huge underdog, and they still have time to get better.

Teams who rely on ugly bully ball don’t typically succeed in the postseason. There are always exceptions, of course.

 

[Aike]

A couple of years ago, a guy won the economics version of the Nobel Prize for the earthshaking insight that nobody can see the future. Once a model starts adding parameters to get it to match observations, it's katy bar the door. "With 4 parameters I can fit an elephant. and with 5, I can make him wiggle his trunk." People go nuts tinkering with predictive models. If there were good predictive models, there wouldn't be horse tracks and Las Vegas would still be a gas station.

Vegas runs on predictive models.

 

[Aike]

I do think SC at 75 is awfully low. 18-3 with wins over Kentucky and Tennessee (@UT no less), is impressive.

Maybe I should build a model that only counts impressive wins, and ignores home losses to Georgia and getting drubbed by Bama? For instance.

 

[RipThru]

We no longer fit the profile of a contender.

Arizona still does, for now.

UCONN was similar last year. Killed it early. Struggled some in conference. Put it together down the stretch.

Will Arizona pull it back together? We’ll see.

“Good” news for us is even one game playing like we are capable and we could be back in the mix. Needs to come soon though.

Seriously, have we looked like a team capable of winning 6 straight to you?

As much as anybody else...

 

[UKBB4Ever]

60 years of watching SEC basketball played in cow barns with SEC officials has shown me that those teams will win against other SEC teams in those cow barns with SEC officials, {or just anyone they found on the street and put a stiped shirt on), and then fizzle out as soon as they go play in a real basketball arena with real officials.

Everyone knows that the SEC doesn't care one iota about basketball and that includes to SEC offices. If they wanted it different they would change it.

We have had some hiccups recently but traditionally once UK gets away from SEC teams and SEC officials they thrive. It's like watching completely different games.

Most of the SEC just gears everything to winning those games in their barns. UK simply has different goals than the rest of the SEC. And they hate us for it.