Man Coverage vs Zone Coverage Under Stoops

[knockturnal79]

Frankly, Boz, absent actual analysis, I would have agreed, at least somewhat, with this statement.

But running the numbers since our defensive awakening in 2018/19, the opposite might well be true.

I concluded the following in another (related) thread:

“In all normal seasons since 18/19, Kentucky has averaged 45th in TOP, but has averaged 23rd in Scoring Defense and 21st in Total (yardage surrendered) defense. Again, one could more rationally argue that our excellent defenses since 2018 have improved our TOP rankings by holding teams to fewer clock-draining scoring drives, than the reverse.

Yes, we are marginally above average in TOP since 2018, but are nationally excellent in defense, consistently ranking in the top 15 percent of FBS for total yardage and points surrendered.”

Not at all arguing against the stats you provided, but I did look intona few stats during the Stooos to A&M situation that somewhat support what Boz is saying (and potentially the issue others get upset about re: defense)

Nearly half of Stoops' wins at UK have been at or under a score (I feel like this is conservative and cant remember the exact number). This would imply that games are kept close/slowed down in order to have a chance. Bend but dont break on defense, control the clock on offense, roll the dice at the end.

The other telling stat was average margin of defeat, which was greater than 2 scores. In combination with the previous stat, this would imply the team has little chance of staging comebacks. If UK is playing explosive teams, such as an Alabama or Georgia, and get behind early, the offensive scheming simply cant overcome it because its designed to keep it close and 'have a chance'. They will continue to lack urgency and hope for mistakes while grinding the game down.

I could be entirely wrong, I admit that, but having THAT many close games in over a decade would imply its deliberate. Which makes sense because from a talent perspective, we will always be behind (though that gap has closed considerably). When you possess that mentality, its genuinely a coin flip and youll win some you shouldnt but lose some you shouldnt too, and those will always stick out to fans. That combination of stats, to me, screams a lack of aggression as a fundamental mindset.

 

[Eccain01]

there’s different ways to skin a cat. Man or zone isn’t really the problem. We do play too conservative at the end of half and games but our biggest issue is we can’t rush the passer. Until that’s fixed it dont really matter

 

[The-Hack]

there’s different ways to skin a cat. Man or zone isn’t really the problem. We do play too conservative at the end of half and games but our biggest issue is we can’t rush the passer. Until that’s fixed it dont really matter

The lack of a real pass rush the last couple of years is certainly a factor.

I’m a Stoops supporter for life, but he can use a little in-game guidance the last three minutes of both halves. He’s an emotional Coach, but emotions can get in the way of even simple decisions.

 

[The-Hack]

Nearly half of Stoops' wins at UK have been at or under a score (I feel like this is conservative and cant remember the exact number). This would imply that games are kept close/slowed down in order to have a chance. Bend but dont break on defense, control the clock on offense, roll the dice at the end.

I think the single score stat is easily neutralized: we beat Penn State 27-24 . . . a game with significant scoring, but within one score for the win. We lost to Clemson 38-35, a close score with above average scoring.

And your key words are “slowed down.”

No matter how you say it, how you slice, how you phrase it, no statistic can replace simple Time of Possession.

If claiming the other team’s offense was smothered by a lack of time to score, then the actual measure of opponent’s TOP is a stat where an anomaly would have to arise to support the claim.

In both the “lack of time” theory and the Time of Possession stat, time is the only real measurement.

And again, an average of 45th in TOP is good, and a tad above average.

But the suggestion that that modest accomplishment has led to an average defensive ranking in the top 15 percent of FBS (and top four in the SEC) for six consecutive seasons cannot rationally be supported.