Here's some numbers for anyone interested. We hear a lot about who gives who the most trouble, so here is the actual numbers.
I just kind of wanted to dampen down the whole "MAC is like a mid-level B10 team" or the notions that the MAC is somehow a tougher test or more dangerous than any other non-P5 conference. It's just simply not true. In-fact quite the opposite. I know some will point to some non-B10/SEC matchups vs MAC schools, and I can point to the other conferences having likely better success than the MAC against those other conferences. B10 and SEC are just the superior conferences right now so I used them for this.
Only 7 of the last 30 meetings between between the MAC and B10/SEC have been within the current betting line of UK/MOH. Some can say Miami returns some offense, but at the same time Michigan beat last years MAC champion by 53 and LSU beat the MAC team with the best overall record (CMU) by 4 TDs. If we have the team anywhere near what people believe we do, everyone should be loving this line. WIll what we believe to be one of UKs best teams in a long time be on the list with those other teams that didn't beat their MAC foe by more than 3 TDs? I really, really, really doubt it. Obviously its CFB and anything can happen if we crap the bed, but I just feel a 4+ TD win Saturday.
Point differentials:
MAC (9/30 30% of games within 3 TDs)
(also 0 games vs Alabama or Georgia)
71 - Ohio State over Miami(OH)
61 - Wisconsin over CMU
53 - Michigan over NIU
52 - Ohio State over Akron
50 - Auburn over Akron
48 - WIsconsin over Kent State
39 - Auburn over Kent State
39 - Illinois over Akron
36 - Nebraska over NIU
34 - Michigan St over WMU
33 - Michigan over WMU
32 - UT over BGSU
31 - A&M over Kent State
31 - Penn State over Buffalo
31 - Penn State over Ball State
29 - Northwestern over Ohio
28 - LSU over CMU
27 - WIsconsin over EMU
25 - Nebraska over Buffalo
24 - Iowa over Miami(OH)
23 - Iowa over Kent State
Within 3 TDs:
21 - Kentucky over EMU
21 - Maryland over Kent State
14 - Kentucky over Toledo
10 - Indiana over Ball State
10 - Missouri over CMU
6 - Vanderbilt over NIU
5 - Minnesota over Miami (OH)
Win, 3 - BGSU over Minnesota
Win, 3 - EMU over Illinois
Compare that to:
C-USA (10/18 55% of games within 3 TDs)
49 - Georgia over UAB
49 - Alabama over Southern Miss
45 - Iowa over MTSU
42 - Alabama over Southern Miss
31 - A&M over UTSA
24 - Ohio State over FAU
23 - Miss State over Southern Miss
23 - Tennessee over UAB
Within 3 TDs:
21 - Arkansas over RIce
21 - Florida vs FAU
19 - Michigan over MTSU
17 - Michigan State over WKU
13 - Missouri over N Texas
10 - Illinois over Charlotte
2 - Indiana over WKU
1 - Miss State over La Tech
Win, 7 - UTSA over Illinois
Win, 26 - WKU over Arkansas
Sun-Belt (7/13 54% of games within 3 TDs)
(No SEC/B10 team played App State or Coastal the last 3 years, either)
55 - Georgia over Arkansas St
52 - LSU over Ga Southern
46 - Tennessee over South Alabama
35 - Kentucky over ULM
34 - A&M over Texas St
32 - Missouri over Troy
Within 3 TDs:
14 - Nebraska over South Alabama
13 - LSU over ULM
10 - Miss State over ULL
10 - Auburn over Ga State
9 - South Carolina over Troy
3 - Minnesota over Ga Southern
Win, 8 - Georgia State over Tennessee
MWC: (9/12 75% of games within 3 TDs)
53 - Vanderbilt over Hawaii
36 - LSU over Utah State
34 - A&M over New Mexico
WIthin 3 TDs:
21 - Arkansas over Colorado State
16 - Northwestern over UNLV
10 - Iowa over Colorado State
3 - Vanderbilt over Colorado State
3 - Minnesota over Fresno State
WIn, 3 - Nevada over Purdue
Win, 6 - Wyoming over Missouri
Win, 7 - San Jose State over Arkansas
Win, 24 - UNLV over Vanderbilt
I just kind of wanted to dampen down the whole "MAC is like a mid-level B10 team" or the notions that the MAC is somehow a tougher test or more dangerous than any other non-P5 conference. It's just simply not true. In-fact quite the opposite. I know some will point to some non-B10/SEC matchups vs MAC schools, and I can point to the other conferences having likely better success than the MAC against those other conferences. B10 and SEC are just the superior conferences right now so I used them for this.
Only 7 of the last 30 meetings between between the MAC and B10/SEC have been within the current betting line of UK/MOH. Some can say Miami returns some offense, but at the same time Michigan beat last years MAC champion by 53 and LSU beat the MAC team with the best overall record (CMU) by 4 TDs. If we have the team anywhere near what people believe we do, everyone should be loving this line. WIll what we believe to be one of UKs best teams in a long time be on the list with those other teams that didn't beat their MAC foe by more than 3 TDs? I really, really, really doubt it. Obviously its CFB and anything can happen if we crap the bed, but I just feel a 4+ TD win Saturday.
Point differentials:
MAC (9/30 30% of games within 3 TDs)
(also 0 games vs Alabama or Georgia)
71 - Ohio State over Miami(OH)
61 - Wisconsin over CMU
53 - Michigan over NIU
52 - Ohio State over Akron
50 - Auburn over Akron
48 - WIsconsin over Kent State
39 - Auburn over Kent State
39 - Illinois over Akron
36 - Nebraska over NIU
34 - Michigan St over WMU
33 - Michigan over WMU
32 - UT over BGSU
31 - A&M over Kent State
31 - Penn State over Buffalo
31 - Penn State over Ball State
29 - Northwestern over Ohio
28 - LSU over CMU
27 - WIsconsin over EMU
25 - Nebraska over Buffalo
24 - Iowa over Miami(OH)
23 - Iowa over Kent State
Within 3 TDs:
21 - Kentucky over EMU
21 - Maryland over Kent State
14 - Kentucky over Toledo
10 - Indiana over Ball State
10 - Missouri over CMU
6 - Vanderbilt over NIU
5 - Minnesota over Miami (OH)
Win, 3 - BGSU over Minnesota
Win, 3 - EMU over Illinois
Compare that to:
C-USA (10/18 55% of games within 3 TDs)
49 - Georgia over UAB
49 - Alabama over Southern Miss
45 - Iowa over MTSU
42 - Alabama over Southern Miss
31 - A&M over UTSA
24 - Ohio State over FAU
23 - Miss State over Southern Miss
23 - Tennessee over UAB
Within 3 TDs:
21 - Arkansas over RIce
21 - Florida vs FAU
19 - Michigan over MTSU
17 - Michigan State over WKU
13 - Missouri over N Texas
10 - Illinois over Charlotte
2 - Indiana over WKU
1 - Miss State over La Tech
Win, 7 - UTSA over Illinois
Win, 26 - WKU over Arkansas
Sun-Belt (7/13 54% of games within 3 TDs)
(No SEC/B10 team played App State or Coastal the last 3 years, either)
55 - Georgia over Arkansas St
52 - LSU over Ga Southern
46 - Tennessee over South Alabama
35 - Kentucky over ULM
34 - A&M over Texas St
32 - Missouri over Troy
Within 3 TDs:
14 - Nebraska over South Alabama
13 - LSU over ULM
10 - Miss State over ULL
10 - Auburn over Ga State
9 - South Carolina over Troy
3 - Minnesota over Ga Southern
Win, 8 - Georgia State over Tennessee
MWC: (9/12 75% of games within 3 TDs)
53 - Vanderbilt over Hawaii
36 - LSU over Utah State
34 - A&M over New Mexico
WIthin 3 TDs:
21 - Arkansas over Colorado State
16 - Northwestern over UNLV
10 - Iowa over Colorado State
3 - Vanderbilt over Colorado State
3 - Minnesota over Fresno State
WIn, 3 - Nevada over Purdue
Win, 6 - Wyoming over Missouri
Win, 7 - San Jose State over Arkansas
Win, 24 - UNLV over Vanderbilt
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