Looking forward, what should our expectations be? (Warning long post)

[H00SIER-Cat]

Disclaimer: l am a dude wanting to watch Kentucky win basketball games. I understand some of my perspectives aren't always player friendly.


After watching some of the final four games between teams no one predicted would be there, I wondered if one and done, NIL and the transfer portal have brought complete parity to CBB. Or is this year an outlier.


Has one and done ran its course to the point they none of the NBA level guys care about winning championships at this level? (I believe you're playing with fire going into March counting on them to be leaders if they're on the court at all)


Has NIL wrecked team chemistry? Will teams be able to keep the players happy in regards to PT and $$$?


The transfer portal makes this all worse in my opinion. It's as vital as recruiting high schoolers and the wrong guy(s) coming or going can ruin a season. Thinking players will stay around to develop int decent juniors or seniors is not very likely. (I'm so old, I remember transfers only went down P5 to mid major, never up)


So, are the days of a for sure great team over?
Should round of 32 or sweet 16 be our ceiling more often than not?

I will root for UK regardless of the record or what the coach's buyout is, but should my expectations be adjusted?

 

[G-PIP]

Disclaimer: l am a dude wanting to watch Kentucky win basketball games. I understand some of my perspectives aren't always player friendly.


After watching some of the final four games between teams no one predicted would be there, I wondered if one and done, NIL and the transfer portal have brought complete parity to CBB. Or is this year an outlier.


Has one and done ran its course to the point they none of the NBA level guys care about winning championships at this level? (I believe you're playing with fire going into March counting on them to be leaders if they're on the court at all)


Has NIL wrecked team chemistry? Will teams be able to keep the players happy in regards to PT and $$$?


The transfer portal makes this all worse in my opinion. It's as vital as recruiting high schoolers and the wrong guy(s) coming or going can ruin a season. Thinking players will stay around to develop int decent juniors or seniors is not very likely. (I'm so old, I remember transfers only went down P5 to mid major, never up)


So, are the days of a for sure great team over?
Should round of 32 or sweet 16 be our ceiling more often than not?

I will root for UK regardless of the record or what the coach's buyout is, but should my expectations be adjusted?

You make a good point about the transfer portal and parity. It seems like more and more (the majority?) of the best upperclassmen are entering the portal every year. Go get a couple of those guys and a team that was decent already has a chance to be in contention. I actually think it would be much easier to get a championship team from the portal than from a freshman recruiting class.

 

[Ocornett]

Guys in the portal that we’d want are looking for huge NIL payouts. You might be able to get 1 or 2, but most teams wouldn’t be able to provide the big cash payoffs these kids would ask for. They’d go to the highest bidder. Portal is like pro sports now. Sad but true.

 

[megablue]

You make a lot of good points.
I do not know if parity has arrived, but randomness sure has.
Now, ALL coaches are greatly overpaid and they are becoming human resource managers, rather than coaches.
NIL $$$ and transfer portal have certainly changed college athletics, if not ruined them.
You simply CANNOT talk TEAM to players who are not committed.

 

[Hank Camacho]

Guys in the portal that we’d want are looking for huge NIL payouts.

That should be a great advantage for us. No one cares more than UK fans and UK fans put their money where their mouthes are.

In theory, we should be able to use NIL and the portal to great advantage. With NIL we can compete with the NBA to keep guys like Livingston, etc who historically go pro too early. With the portal we can grab veteran players with proven college ability rather than hoping every high school hotshot is the quality of John Wall and Anthony Davis. Just those two things should allow us the sort of roster stability that has always been the bane of Calipari at UK.

Calipari circa 2010 would absolutely dominate this new era. He'd have boosters lined up to sign kids to NIL contracts laden with retention and performance bonuses and make sure he was advertising in Chapel Hill, Durham, Storrs, etc to let the players at our rivals know they'd be welcome in Lexington if they are lucky enough to be accepted.

I don't see the current Calipari as having any interest whatsoever in changing, however. He seems fat, comfortable, and complacent. And with that contract, why shouldn't he be?

For me, everything is moot until there is a change in leadership. I hope we get rid of Barnhart this summer and bring in someone new who is excited about the changing landscape of college athletics (rather than horrified as Barnhart clearly is). Let a new guy (or gal or whatever) get established while we get to see what Calipari can do with his first true all-star recruiting class in a while.

In summary ----> we need innovative leadership who welcomes the new environment and uses it to our advantage rather than bristles that the changes interrupt their comfortable status quo.

 

[qwesley]

I would like to see Cal donate $2m.year to the collective and still remain overpaid.

 

[ManitouDan]

UK basketball is near dead people , Today things happen quick and attention span's are short . We haven't been relevant for what seems like forever and it matters . Here on this board where geezers like me and others hang on because its in our blood .. yeah we care .. but I dont think this idea that business people in / around the bluegrass are going to throw millions at some dude thats going to come in to a team that cant win the conference , cant win the SECT , can advance to the EE or FF ( that seems like a pipe dream for a Cal coached team) and write outrageous NIL checks for that player is not going to happen . I have no clue how much NIL Savhir Wheeler got , was that a wise investment ? Sorry to continue to pick on Wheeler while hes still recovering from injury BTW .. but my point is ,,,,, who will invest big bucks in a mediocre team who seems to be sliding into less and less relevance each year ? Until Cal is gone and BBN heals and reunites the program and ability to function well in this NIL / transfer portal world is going to suffer even worse . next year will be another disappointment and it will continue to get worse and worse . Thats what I expect until John Calapari is gone

 

[kyjeff1]

Unless you get a generational talent and pair that guy up with a legit surrounding cast with experience, you aren't winning squat with one-and-done players, those days are gone, they flew out the door 6 or 7 years ago.

Watching the teams that made the sweet 16 and beyond has proven to me that you better be clicking at all 5 positions and have lots of toughness that is typically gained through experience. Rental players aren't going to catch and pass teams loaded with guys that have played together for several years.

I think we have some dogs coming in next year, but they are going to be way behind the more cohesive and older teams and if Cal tries to roll with Ugo and Lance Ware at the 5, we're definitely not going anywhere.

 

[liveblue92]

Cal does a seemingly terrible job with expectation management and/or defining the roles for the players on the roster. Either that, or we just seem to get players with horrible self awareness who think they are much better than they are. Either way, it’s not working, and I don’t expect next year to work either.

 

[Cefiro]

Cal does a seemingly terrible job with expectation management and/or defining the roles for the players on the roster. Either that, or we just seem to get players with horrible self awareness who think they are much better than they are. Either way, it’s not working, and I don’t expect next year to work either.

I think this is the biggest issue, it should be easier now than ever for UK to have a great team.

Cal is too concerned with getting the best players as opposed to the best pieces. He refuses to believe you need shooters to win and plays lineups that are reflective of that. How many times did he play Livingston, Wheeler, and Ware at the beginning of the year? Where is the scoring going to come from?

 

[qwesley]

Recruit a couple high end guys that are physical enough and skilled enough to start on a high end team (Edwards, and Wagner fit this) per year. Recruit 2 development guys that have skill and/or size (Thierro, Shep, and Ugo fit this). Use NIL to retain those guys and get a couple proven vets out of the portal each year.

 

[thepip]

EXPECTIONS: UHaul on Richmond Road

 

[Aike]

I’d say there were two surprising teams, one mild surprise, and one that was no surprise at all.

FAU and SDSU - big surprises, benefitting from a bit of luck and tourney randomness.

Miami - hot team from a power conference. Mild surprise, but teams like this make the FF all the time.

UCONN - no surprise at all. One of the top teams according to the metrics all year.

This is coming off a FF with UNC, Duke, KU, and Villanova.

Year before that, Gonzaga and Baylor were 1-2 going in and ran all the way to the final game.

I would say jury is still out. Looking forward to the Covid years washing out and seeing how things look without 25 year olds on every team.

 

[catsfancy]

Unless you get a generational talent and pair that guy up with a legit surrounding cast with experience, you aren't winning squat with one-and-done players, those days are gone, they flew out the door 6 or 7 years ago.

Watching the teams that made the sweet 16 and beyond has proven to me that you better be clicking at all 5 positions and have lots of toughness that is typically gained through experience. Rental players aren't going to catch and pass teams loaded with guys that have played together for several years.

I think we have some dogs coming in next year, but they are going to be way behind the more cohesive and older teams and if Cal tries to roll with Ugo and Lance Ware at the 5, we're definitely not going anywhere.

It's almost as if experience matters 🤔

 

[kyjeff1]

It's almost as if experience matters 🤔

Unless your coach doesn't know how to utilize experience. Cal had the most experience he will ever have, but he refused to play the best lineups and nobody got better throughout the season.

I don't know of too many coaches that would gave been anywhere near 10 losses with this team. Tom Crean maybe.

 

[mebeblue2]

I’d say there were two surprising teams, one mild surprise, and one that was no surprise at all.

FAU and SDSU - big surprises, benefitting from a bit of luck and tourney randomness.

Miami - hot team from a power conference. Mild surprise, but teams like this make the FF all the time.

UCONN - no surprise at all. One of the top teams according to the metrics all year.

This is coming off a FF with UNC, Duke, KU, and Villanova.

Year before that, Gonzaga and Baylor were 1-2 going in and ran all the way to the final game.

I would say jury is still out. Looking forward to the Covid years washing out and seeing how things look without 25 year olds on every team.

IMHO Covid has been the biggest factor
i think next year and beyond things go back to normal

 

[ganner918]

IMHO Covid has been the biggest factor
i think next year and beyond things go back to normal

It's gonna take a few more years before the covid year stops affecting the game. Guys who were freshmen in 2020-21 will still be eligible to play in 2024-25, so we have 2 more seasons where there are more players available than usual, and more experienced plyers than usual. I thought then and think now that giving everybody a free year was a mistake.

 

[Hank Camacho]

I thought then and think now that giving everybody a free year was a mistake.

Just like every other damn thing we did about COVID?

(I kid, I kid.)

 

[know1]

The longer UK goes without a successful season, the more the program loses visibility. And it gets tougher and tougher to get the talent here.

 

[Ocornett]

I would like to see Cal donate $2m.year to the collective and still remain overpaid.

Would you donate 17% of your salary each year to the colLective?

 

[Kyhoward]

I think this is the biggest issue, it should be easier now than ever for UK to have a great team.

Cal is too concerned with getting the best players as opposed to the best pieces. He refuses to believe you need shooters to win and plays lineups that are reflective of that. How many times did he play Livingston, Wheeler, and Ware at the beginning of the year? Where is the scoring going to come from?

Like your description of best players instead of best pieces.

 

[qwesley]

Would you donate 17% of your salary each year to the colLective?

If I was paid double the average of the median top 25 coach and not performing to that standard and really wanted to win.

 

[kywildcat41086]

Unless your coach doesn't know how to utilize experience. Cal had the most experience he will ever have, but he refused to play the best lineups and nobody got better throughout the season.

I don't know of too many coaches that would gave been anywhere near 10 losses with this team. Tom Crean maybe.

Exactly the last 2 Cal teams he’s had the most experience at UK that’s he’s had in the 14 years that he’s been here. He probably won’t ever have that much experience again. We finished 1st round in the tournament and 2nd round in the tournament. I just feel as long as he continues to coach at UK we will continue to end the season with the same similar results!

 

[UKBB4Ever]

I don’t know what expectations should be. Nor do I care what someone thinks my expectations are.

I expect to win every game. I realize we won’t but UK basketball is an escape.

I don’t get to Lexington often but we do go to the SEC tourney every year. We did go to London and the Bahamas.

We go to the FF whenever UK is in it. Made arrangements yesterday for Phoenix next year.

I never give a thought to how much the coach makes. I want to win if the coach is over or under paid.

I’m looking forward to next season.

But I’m old enough to know that time passes fast enough. So I can wait. I’m not wishing any time away.

I haven’t seen the schedule so I don’t know if there’s any exciting places to go see the Cats next year.

 

[JerseyCat84]

40-0

 

[Steelman100]

The longer UK goes without a successful season, the more the program loses visibility. And it gets tougher and tougher to get the talent here.

Yes we only have the number one class. Can't get anyone

 

[The_Answer1313]

Think the expectation should always be the same.

In a normal year, you can pick say 6 to 8 teams and be reasonably confident the title is coming from those teams.
The expectation should be to be one of those 6 to 8 teams.

How you beat some of the randomness of a one and done tournament is to be a title contender as many years as you can be.

Then you hope that a few turn into titles.

It's okay to still maintain high expectations AND also realize the college basketball landscape is changing and that it's going to be a lot harder to win titles now.

 

[kyjeff1]

I don’t know what expectations should be. Nor do I care what someone thinks my expectations are.

I expect to win every game. I realize we won’t but UK basketball is an escape.

I don’t get to Lexington often but we do go to the SEC tourney every year. We did go to London and the Bahamas.

We go to the FF whenever UK is in it. Made arrangements yesterday for Phoenix next year.

I never give a thought to how much the coach makes. I want to win if the coach is over or under paid.

I’m looking forward to next season.

But I’m old enough to know that time passes fast enough. So I can wait. I’m not wishing any time away.

I haven’t seen the schedule so I don’t know if there’s any exciting places to go see the Cats next year.

The way you post, it appears to me that as long as UK makes an appearance in the SECT and NCAAT's, you're good.

I wish I was joking.

 

[kyjeff1]

Think the expectation should always be the same.

In a normal year, you can pick say 6 to 8 teams and be reasonably confident the title is coming from those teams.
The expectation should be to be one of those 6 to 8 teams.

How you beat some of the randomness of a one and done tournament is to be a title contender as many years as you can be.

Then you hope that a few turn into titles.

It's okay to still maintain high expectations AND also realize the college basketball landscape is changing and that it's going to be a lot harder to win titles now.

Very well put.

One thing is for sure, 9-16, Saint Peters, 12 losses, early NCAAT losses and home losses are not acceptable and I wish Cal would admit that instead of telling UK fans our expectations are ridiculous.