When the sports world shut down in March due to COVID-19, we knew uncertain times were ahead. Big Blue Nation is feeling that even today as the NBA once again reshuffled its pre-draft calendar.
On Saturday morning there were a couple of adjustments that could directly impact what the Kentucky Wildcat roster could look like next winter.
For starters, potential early-entry candidates were given a second opportunity to declare for the 2020 draft. The initial deadline for a decision was set for April 26, almost two full months ahead of the June 25 draft. Now the selection show has been delayed until October 16, and the second window for prospects now is extended to August 17.
Next there is the issue of withdrawal. NBA bylaws state that potential draftees have up until ten days before the draft to withdraw. That would put the date at October 6 before a player has to make a final decision on which route he will embark.
This impacts Kentucky's roster on several fronts, particularly with Olivier Sarr and Makur Maker.
So what does this mean for Olivier Sarr? Wake Forest's Danny Manning was fired on April 25, one day before the deadline to enter the draft process. Just 12 later on May 6, Sarr announced that he would be attending the University of Kentucky for what would be a fourth and final season. But that was assuming he would be approved to play this year.
Saturday's announcement puts an already precarious situation into further limbo. A scenario with seemingly two endings is now doubled in possibilities.
This could open up the door for Sarr to go the professional route
This is the newest different route. Sarr now has 58 days from the time of the announcement to decide if he wants to test the draft waters. It would seem that he would make that decision sooner rather than later. The reason for declaring is for the player to get the most possible amount of feedback and information.
There are sixty selections in the NBA Draft or two rounds of thirty picks. Those who are taken in the first half get guaranteed contract money by their new team. Players who are taken in the second round have no such guarantee. They have to make a team, and many times go through the G-League route or even play internationally.
G-League players make up to $125,000 per year. They can also sign two-way contracts. According to the league.nba.com, "NBA teams may have up to two players under NBA Two-Way Contracts who will spend the bulk of the season in the NBA G League and not more than 45 days with their NBA team. Two-Way players are paid a corresponding daily amount based on the number of days they play in each league. Only players in their fourth NBA season or earlier are able to sign Two-Way Contracts, which can be for either one or two seasons."
These players can also sign ten-day contracts with an NBA team.
Sarr is currently not on any of the most reliable NBA Draft boards that we have seen. If he does declare for the draft and doesn't get the positive feed back he requires then next season would be a big one in improving his stock. He discussed that with Jeff Borzello after committing to Kentucky.
"That's one of the reasons I chose Kentucky," Sarr said. "They have the resources and they do a great job of getting big men ready for the NBA. But it's not about what I say; it's about what I do on the court. I need to put the work in and show that I am one of these guys. They showed they can do it in the past at a high rate. Now it's my turn to do my job and become one of those well-known names."
Sarr could pull out of the draft and return to school
This is where logistics begin to go off the straight line. Sarr could have up to October 6 to make his decision. Obviously the uncertainty related to COVID creeps in again with the starting dates for the 2020 fall semester. There is a chance it could be delayed, although there has been no decision made in stone yet. Making a decision that late and attending Kentucky are moot points. If Sarr does put his toes in the water, he will have to pull them out by August. Kentucky hopes that eight weeks will be enough time.
Sarr doesn't go into the draft and waits on an NCAA decision
As I spoke with different people on Saturday, there were plenty of musings of how this ruling might impact Sarr being granted a waiver to play next season. There were two main points around his request. First, Manning was fired one day before the entry deadline, and he didn't have time to go through the process of declaring for the draft. In fact, sources close to the Wake Forest program have told us that Manning basically convinced Sarr to stay in college for one more season between the end of the 2018-19 campaign and his firing.
The fear that the ruling might hurt his chances are because now he has the opportunity to declare and go through the ceremonies before making a decision. But it shouldn't be a slam dunk that he wouldn't receive a waiver because of that. Sarr has committed to Kentucky with the expectation of playing there before Saturday's decision by the NBA. He is now in a different situation than he found himself in at Wake Forest.
Second, there are too many conflicting dates with deadlines for both the NBA and college that it leads to excessive uncertainty for the player. With the COVID situation as well, the safe thing for the player is to go to college in a controlled environment.
So far the NCAA rulings for waivers have been player friendly. Johnny Juzang and D.J. Carton received quick rulings in their favor to attend new colleges.
Also, don't forget that Sarr's coach was fired. This has been a huge reason in the past for players transferring from one school to another, and in many cases getting eligibility.
That is another factor that must go in Kentucky's favor. It must be done expediently. If the process drags on past the beginning of the fall semester. Don't look for Sarr to hang around waiting to see what happens.
"I could go pro, play one year in the EuroLeague, somewhere to get ready for the NBA," Sarr told Borzello. "There's no way I sit out."
How does Saturday's news impact Makur Maker
If for any reason Sarr does not play for Kentucky next season, the next option will be Makur Maker. The seven-footer out of California is ranked No. 18 in the Class of 2020.
Almost everything we said about the decision dates and deadlines on Oliver Sarr hold true for Makur Maker. The difference is that he already has his name in the draft. Now he has until October 16 to pull it out. That leaves us where we are with Sarr. He cannot stay out anywhere close to that time frame and have college eligibility.
Cats Illustrated has spoken with his guardian, Edward Smith, on several occasions. Smith has told us in the past that he would keep his name in until the last couple of days if he were to pull out and opt for college. At that time the date had not been changed from June, so now the big question is would they wait until October?
"So it's all going to depend on how this draft process shapes up. If he gets a promise with a team that is vested in seeing him develop then he has to make a choice whether he wants to go to college or go to the pros. I think if he likes the position he is in he can pro. If he doesn't, he can always go to college. There's nothing bad about college, " Smith told us when we last interviewed him.
If he does indeed go to college his choices are Kentucky, UCLA, and Howard. Most think the battle would come down to the Wildcats and Bruins. Smith has mentioned staying on the West Coast quite often in the past. He has added if, "he were not staying out West, then he would go on the national stage and he would look at Kentucky."
What do you know and when did you know it
One in the hand is worth two in the bush. Sarr is the player in hand, and next year's look revolves around what Olivier Sarr hears and when he hears it. The bottom line is that Sarr needs to hear something before school starts. Even if the NCAA says no dice to eligibility, that still puts Maker in play. Anything later than that, and he is possibly gone to another venue, and obviously maker will not be in Lexington when school starts.
In other words nobody knows right now what is going to happen. That was an almost prophetic point that Edward Smith made with us all the way back in April.
"We don't know how it's going to shape up. We don't know exactly what's happening. So that's where this whole thing is up in the air. Yep, this whole thing is up in the air."
On Saturday morning there were a couple of adjustments that could directly impact what the Kentucky Wildcat roster could look like next winter.
For starters, potential early-entry candidates were given a second opportunity to declare for the 2020 draft. The initial deadline for a decision was set for April 26, almost two full months ahead of the June 25 draft. Now the selection show has been delayed until October 16, and the second window for prospects now is extended to August 17.
Next there is the issue of withdrawal. NBA bylaws state that potential draftees have up until ten days before the draft to withdraw. That would put the date at October 6 before a player has to make a final decision on which route he will embark.
This impacts Kentucky's roster on several fronts, particularly with Olivier Sarr and Makur Maker.
So what does this mean for Olivier Sarr? Wake Forest's Danny Manning was fired on April 25, one day before the deadline to enter the draft process. Just 12 later on May 6, Sarr announced that he would be attending the University of Kentucky for what would be a fourth and final season. But that was assuming he would be approved to play this year.
Saturday's announcement puts an already precarious situation into further limbo. A scenario with seemingly two endings is now doubled in possibilities.
This could open up the door for Sarr to go the professional route
This is the newest different route. Sarr now has 58 days from the time of the announcement to decide if he wants to test the draft waters. It would seem that he would make that decision sooner rather than later. The reason for declaring is for the player to get the most possible amount of feedback and information.
There are sixty selections in the NBA Draft or two rounds of thirty picks. Those who are taken in the first half get guaranteed contract money by their new team. Players who are taken in the second round have no such guarantee. They have to make a team, and many times go through the G-League route or even play internationally.
G-League players make up to $125,000 per year. They can also sign two-way contracts. According to the league.nba.com, "NBA teams may have up to two players under NBA Two-Way Contracts who will spend the bulk of the season in the NBA G League and not more than 45 days with their NBA team. Two-Way players are paid a corresponding daily amount based on the number of days they play in each league. Only players in their fourth NBA season or earlier are able to sign Two-Way Contracts, which can be for either one or two seasons."
These players can also sign ten-day contracts with an NBA team.
Sarr is currently not on any of the most reliable NBA Draft boards that we have seen. If he does declare for the draft and doesn't get the positive feed back he requires then next season would be a big one in improving his stock. He discussed that with Jeff Borzello after committing to Kentucky.
"That's one of the reasons I chose Kentucky," Sarr said. "They have the resources and they do a great job of getting big men ready for the NBA. But it's not about what I say; it's about what I do on the court. I need to put the work in and show that I am one of these guys. They showed they can do it in the past at a high rate. Now it's my turn to do my job and become one of those well-known names."
Sarr could pull out of the draft and return to school
This is where logistics begin to go off the straight line. Sarr could have up to October 6 to make his decision. Obviously the uncertainty related to COVID creeps in again with the starting dates for the 2020 fall semester. There is a chance it could be delayed, although there has been no decision made in stone yet. Making a decision that late and attending Kentucky are moot points. If Sarr does put his toes in the water, he will have to pull them out by August. Kentucky hopes that eight weeks will be enough time.
Sarr doesn't go into the draft and waits on an NCAA decision
As I spoke with different people on Saturday, there were plenty of musings of how this ruling might impact Sarr being granted a waiver to play next season. There were two main points around his request. First, Manning was fired one day before the entry deadline, and he didn't have time to go through the process of declaring for the draft. In fact, sources close to the Wake Forest program have told us that Manning basically convinced Sarr to stay in college for one more season between the end of the 2018-19 campaign and his firing.
The fear that the ruling might hurt his chances are because now he has the opportunity to declare and go through the ceremonies before making a decision. But it shouldn't be a slam dunk that he wouldn't receive a waiver because of that. Sarr has committed to Kentucky with the expectation of playing there before Saturday's decision by the NBA. He is now in a different situation than he found himself in at Wake Forest.
Second, there are too many conflicting dates with deadlines for both the NBA and college that it leads to excessive uncertainty for the player. With the COVID situation as well, the safe thing for the player is to go to college in a controlled environment.
So far the NCAA rulings for waivers have been player friendly. Johnny Juzang and D.J. Carton received quick rulings in their favor to attend new colleges.
Also, don't forget that Sarr's coach was fired. This has been a huge reason in the past for players transferring from one school to another, and in many cases getting eligibility.
That is another factor that must go in Kentucky's favor. It must be done expediently. If the process drags on past the beginning of the fall semester. Don't look for Sarr to hang around waiting to see what happens.
"I could go pro, play one year in the EuroLeague, somewhere to get ready for the NBA," Sarr told Borzello. "There's no way I sit out."
How does Saturday's news impact Makur Maker
If for any reason Sarr does not play for Kentucky next season, the next option will be Makur Maker. The seven-footer out of California is ranked No. 18 in the Class of 2020.
Almost everything we said about the decision dates and deadlines on Oliver Sarr hold true for Makur Maker. The difference is that he already has his name in the draft. Now he has until October 16 to pull it out. That leaves us where we are with Sarr. He cannot stay out anywhere close to that time frame and have college eligibility.
Cats Illustrated has spoken with his guardian, Edward Smith, on several occasions. Smith has told us in the past that he would keep his name in until the last couple of days if he were to pull out and opt for college. At that time the date had not been changed from June, so now the big question is would they wait until October?
"So it's all going to depend on how this draft process shapes up. If he gets a promise with a team that is vested in seeing him develop then he has to make a choice whether he wants to go to college or go to the pros. I think if he likes the position he is in he can pro. If he doesn't, he can always go to college. There's nothing bad about college, " Smith told us when we last interviewed him.
If he does indeed go to college his choices are Kentucky, UCLA, and Howard. Most think the battle would come down to the Wildcats and Bruins. Smith has mentioned staying on the West Coast quite often in the past. He has added if, "he were not staying out West, then he would go on the national stage and he would look at Kentucky."
What do you know and when did you know it
One in the hand is worth two in the bush. Sarr is the player in hand, and next year's look revolves around what Olivier Sarr hears and when he hears it. The bottom line is that Sarr needs to hear something before school starts. Even if the NCAA says no dice to eligibility, that still puts Maker in play. Anything later than that, and he is possibly gone to another venue, and obviously maker will not be in Lexington when school starts.
In other words nobody knows right now what is going to happen. That was an almost prophetic point that Edward Smith made with us all the way back in April.
"We don't know how it's going to shape up. We don't know exactly what's happening. So that's where this whole thing is up in the air. Yep, this whole thing is up in the air."
