ADVERTISEMENT

Had NIL existed years earlier, what effect might we've seen at UK?

JonathanW

All-American
Jan 3, 2003
26,479
12,103
113
I think the first significant one would have been D.Johnson after 2015 season. He knew at best he would be a 2nd round pick and go to the G-league. But his family was in such a financial situation that he felt he had to go for it. He wouldn't have gotten rich off NIL, but he would have done well enough that his family wouldn't have been struggling. Then he returns in 15-16 season as the missing piece for that team with 2 AA's at guard (Ulis & Murray), a hard-nosed defender in Briscoe, Poythress playing at 80%, Lee, Willis, Matthews, Hawkins. Maybe Skal doesn't join us knowing DJ is returning, but in retrospect that would have been more than ok (Ulis, Murray, Briscoe, Poythress, Johnson - bench of Lee, Willis, Matthews, Hawkins). Probably takes us from 2nd round loss to E8 or maybe F4. And raises his stock to possibly late first round pick status, while banking a few hundred K w/ NIL.

Then Ulis! He had to leave when he did, while his NBA stock was as high as it was going to ever get. If he waits another year, even playing at same AA level, he probably falls out of 2nd round. But no doubt had he had NIL he would have seen Oscar like NIL $, making as much (or more) in JR & SR years at UK as he did in the NBA total. But...would Fox have came then? Did Monk come because of Fox? So a lot of uncertainty how that would have affected the 16-17 team. Then in 17-18 we had a boat-load of FR, but not top 15 FR except maybe Knox. So maybe we don't get Green, but I could see the rest of those FR coming to join Ulis and Gabriel. Maybe SGA doesn't get the opportunity to emerge as a FR, backing up Ulis & Diallo (or maybe Cal plays him over Diallo at the SG/2 or goes 3G lineup again). Ulis, SGA, Diallo, Knox, PJ w/ bench of Gabriel, Vanderbilt (when healthy), Richards. But that steadying SR pressence may have been just what that team needed to reach a F4.
 
  • Like
Reactions: chroix
Depends on whether or not they're actually going to make it substantial or keep what they've had. The current UK NIL is nothing to write home about. $100,000 = "meh" for a kid like Dakari.

But if Cal can get that up higher for kids in that Archie Goodwin level, we might see some significant player retention.
 
NIL has already shown that it can keep elite kids in college longer. The success of our one-and-done system has been predicated on not having to play against elite experienced talent.
At any point, our success under NIL, would depend on how CCC bought into it and collectives.
 
John Wall and AD would've had a blank check deal in place. With Cal's staff in those early years, Peevy still here, it would've been even more ridiculous of a ride than it was pre-2016.
 
  • Like
Reactions: chroix
I think the first significant one would have been D.Johnson after 2015 season. He knew at best he would be a 2nd round pick and go to the G-league. But his family was in such a financial situation that he felt he had to go for it. He wouldn't have gotten rich off NIL, but he would have done well enough that his family wouldn't have been struggling. Then he returns in 15-16 season as the missing piece for that team with 2 AA's at guard (Ulis & Murray), a hard-nosed defender in Briscoe, Poythress playing at 80%, Lee, Willis, Matthews, Hawkins. Maybe Skal doesn't join us knowing DJ is returning, but in retrospect that would have been more than ok (Ulis, Murray, Briscoe, Poythress, Johnson - bench of Lee, Willis, Matthews, Hawkins). Probably takes us from 2nd round loss to E8 or maybe F4. And raises his stock to possibly late first round pick status, while banking a few hundred K w/ NIL.

Then Ulis! He had to leave when he did, while his NBA stock was as high as it was going to ever get. If he waits another year, even playing at same AA level, he probably falls out of 2nd round. But no doubt had he had NIL he would have seen Oscar like NIL $, making as much (or more) in JR & SR years at UK as he did in the NBA total. But...would Fox have came then? Did Monk come because of Fox? So a lot of uncertainty how that would have affected the 16-17 team. Then in 17-18 we had a boat-load of FR, but not top 15 FR except maybe Knox. So maybe we don't get Green, but I could see the rest of those FR coming to join Ulis and Gabriel. Maybe SGA doesn't get the opportunity to emerge as a FR, backing up Ulis & Diallo (or maybe Cal plays him over Diallo at the SG/2 or goes 3G lineup again). Ulis, SGA, Diallo, Knox, PJ w/ bench of Gabriel, Vanderbilt (when healthy), Richards. But that steadying SR pressence may have been just what that team needed to reach a F4.
Maybe, but for me, the more interesting question to ponder that is raised by your post is: what would NIL look like today if it had started 40 years ago versus starting only 5 or 10 years ago?

Back in 1984, the head of the NCAA proposed permitting NIL and also suggested creation of a semi-professional “open division.”

I wonder how things might’ve evolved differently if the university presidents had taken his advice back then.
 
  • Like
Reactions: chroix
NIL has already shown that it can keep elite kids in college longer. The success of our one-and-done system has been predicated on not having to play against elite experienced talent.
At any point, our success under NIL, would depend on how CCC bought into it and collectives.
What "elite" kids have stayed in college longer? I can't think of any, if there are it's a very very small number. NBA is all of their ultimate dream. So I think the only ones NIL can increase the odds of them staying longer are those that are "flawed in NBA eyes", i.e. too short being the most common one.
 
  • Like
Reactions: chroix
Well, at first we would have VERY clearly been behind the curve.

But we would have figured it out before now, and be in a better spot than we're currently in.
 
  • Like
Reactions: chroix
No local big business to fund them. Unless they were running cigarette ads with them.
Maybe, but Duke also has a wealthy and well connected alumni base.

For example, Tim Cook (Apple CEO) graduated from Duke’s business school and is a member of Duke’s Board of Trustees. Adam Silver (NBA Commissioner) is also a Duke grad and member of the Board of Trustees.

It’s hard to say what might’ve happened to Duke. You may be right, or maybe Duke would’ve been able to effectively mobilize their alumni.
 
  • Like
Reactions: chroix
No local big business to fund them. Unless they were running cigarette ads with them.
Uh, you would be wrong!
I worked 15 years for a big-Pharma company just 10 miles from Duke's campus (& lived 27 years now <30min away), and our President for many years was a BIG Duke supporter (Iron Duke). Lots of Biotech companies in the area too. The Triangle is one of the fastest growing areas in the nation, and has been for years.
Duke has a very good medical school and internationally known business school. Lots of rich kids going in, and lots of Richer adults coming out of Duke.
 
  • Like
Reactions: chroix
Why would you say Duke would have been hosed?


I would agree with this because DUKE was paying kids when we all the sudden stopped getting them. Would have been even recruiting ground again and like or hate Cal he wins a lot of times in that scenario.
 
Monumental difference in the Cal era if he comes through just one time. Gotta assume when the FBI stuff started we either stopped writing checks because Cal had an inside man in the FBI so Kentucky stopped paying players or Kentucky stopped getting players because they refused to pay.

I’m going with the second option and if we were allowed to pay players legally and Cal embraced it as he is now then no reason the 2010-2015 run would not have continued until this day.

NIL the entire time completely changes the talent Cal has and at that point needs a good break to have that elusive 2nd title.
 
Uh, you would be wrong!
I worked 15 years for a big-Pharma company just 10 miles from Duke's campus (& lived 27 years now <30min away), and our President for many years was a BIG Duke supporter (Iron Duke). Lots of Biotech companies in the area too. The Triangle is one of the fastest growing areas in the nation, and has been for years.
Duke has a very good medical school and internationally known business school. Lots of rich kids going in, and lots of Richer adults coming out of Duke.
Yeah, but mostly assholes. I would hire a Duke grad to mow my lawn, though.
 
Last edited:
Uh, you would be wrong!
I worked 15 years for a big-Pharma company just 10 miles from Duke's campus (& lived 27 years now <30min away), and our President for many years was a BIG Duke supporter (Iron Duke). Lots of Biotech companies in the area too. The Triangle is one of the fastest growing areas in the nation, and has been for years.
Duke has a very good medical school and internationally known business school. Lots of rich kids going in, and lots of Richer adults coming out of Duke.

I hear you but it’s all hypothetical and who knows how it all shakes out if this change happened 40 years ago. I think UNC steals the juice from Duke and they dominate the state. I also think it would have hurt Kansas and a few other schools that are big now but relatively isolated. Would Bama have been as dominant in football? Hard to say but I could see a scenario where the Miami’s and Georgetown’s of the world fare better than they have and rural state schools pay the price.
 
These are Duke grads. Think about it
cheer-basketball.gif
 
I don't know what you guys are talking about. Duke has been using their own form of NIL for years. Six figure jobs for all the family members. Million dollar homes to live in while attending school.

Pretty sure they formed their basketball collective about 35 years ago. We're all just catching up.
 
ADVERTISEMENT
ADVERTISEMENT