ESPN predicts every matchup on UK conference slate (finishing 13-5)

[bigbluelou]

They predict we go 13-5...here's their percentage win probability for each matchup. TIFWIW.

• @Florida: 35.6%
• Missouri: 85.1%
• @Texas A&M: 27.1%
• Miss St: 68.9%
• Georgia: 83.3%
• @S. Carolina: 60.9%
• @Arkansas: 51.1%
• Florida: 68.7%
• Tennessee: 51.1%
• @Vandy: 83.4%
• Ole Miss: 82.4%
• @Auburn: 26.4%
• @LSU: 63.1%
• Alabama: 55.0%
• @Miss St: 38.0%
• Arkansas: 82.3%
• Vandy: 94.8%
• @Tennessee: 24.6%

Their model puts a lot of weight on home/away locations according to the article.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

Damn, two of our five hardest games are in the next 3 match ups.

 

[HerrosHeroes]

Dream on ESPN

Those 2 percentages they give us at UF and Texas AM tells me all I need to know about their “model”.

The powers that be in CT apparently dont now that UK is loaded with a bunch of alpha dawgs.

This aint pigskin ESPN!

 

[Cats192]

They predict we go 13-5...here's their percentage win probability for each matchup. TIFWIW.

• @Florida: 35.6%
• Missouri: 85.1%
• @Texas A&M: 27.1%
• Miss St: 68.9%
• Georgia: 83.3%
• @S. Carolina: 60.9%
• @Arkansas: 51.1%
• Florida: 68.7%
• Tennessee: 51.1%
• @Vandy: 83.4%
• Ole Miss: 82.4%
• @Auburn: 26.4%
• @LSU: 63.1%
• Alabama: 55.0%
• @Miss St: 38.0%
• Arkansas: 82.3%
• Vandy: 94.8%
• @Tennessee: 24.6%

Their model puts a lot of weight on home/away locations according to the article.

I think Texas A&M will be tough, but winnable.

Florida, we should win.

I'm not scared of Auburn. MSU? I'll be surprised if we lose that.

@UT will be a tough one.

I think we lose 2 or 3. 5 seems high.

 

[know1]

So we finish with 9 losses overall.

 

[bigbluelou]

Damn, two of our five hardest games are in the next 3 match ups.

I think the 4 losses I predicted in the poll thread were @A&M, @Ark, @Auburn, and @UT. All but the Ark game they show in the 20's percentages. Ark shows 51.1% but it seems we have a hard time there, and they were *supposed* to be good this year so I guess by then maybe they will have improved? But then so will we so who knows.

 

[HerrosHeroes]

I think Texas A&M will be tough, but winnable.

Florida, we should win.

I'm not scared of Auburn. MSU? I'll be surprised if we lose that.

@UT will be a tough one.

I think we lose 2 or 3. 5 seems high.

It is high friend. We about to make believers out of the naysayers.

 

[CUJO_1970]

If Calipari manages to lose 7 regular season games with this group it will be a massive failure.

 

[bigbluelou]

I think the three that sort of surprise me are the home games against Miss St, FL, and Bama. Their percentages are basically saying State and FL would beat us 1 out of 3 times at Rupp and Bama would be nearly 1/1. I don't see this at all.

 

[JonathanW]

Statisticallly, their model puts too much weight on Home vs Away.

When I created my model 15+ years ago, to estimate how much weight to adjust H vs A, I looked at several years of data across all 30+ conferences in-conference games. Why in-conference only? Because most P5 non-conference Home games are mismatches (cupcake games) that would bias the results. And I found consistently about a 13% advantage to Home vs Neutral.

But also, they clearly undervalue this UK team. Look at the teams we have H & A with, and the midpoint (which should approximate the odds they would give on Neutral court):
UF 35.6 and 68.7 = 52.15%
UT 51.1 and 24.6 = 37.8%
V 83.4 and 94.8 = 89.1%
Ark 51.1 and 82.3 = 66.7%
MSU 38 and 68.9 = 53.45%

So they consider us barely better than Florida and Miss St, and significantly worse than UT.

 

[HerrosHeroes]

I think the three that sort of surprise me are the home games against Miss St, FL, and Bama. Their percentages are basically saying State and FL would beat us 1 out of 3 times at Rupp and Bama would be nearly 1/1. I don't see this at all.

Big, they are in denial up there because we are better than UCONN this season.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

If Calipari manages to lose 7 regular season games with this group it will be a massive failure.

It would be a bit of a letdown, but keep in mind, the SEC is very strong as a whole this year.

Three top10 teams in Kenpom.
Two more in the top25
Two in the top50
Five in the top100

The SEC might be one of those conferences where a team going 9-9 is still considered "good" like it was for the B12 and B10 the last few years.(I dont agree with this theory, but if they apply it to other conferences then..)

It's too bad the SEC did so poorly against top25 competition to start the year.

 

[bigbluelou]

Statisticallly, their model puts too much weight on Home vs Away.

When I created my model 15+ years ago, to estimate how much weight to adjust H vs A, I looked at several years of data across all 30+ conferences in-conference games. Why in-conference only? Because most P5 non-conference Home games are mismatches (cupcake games) that would bias the results. And I found consistently about a 13% advantage to Home vs Neutral.

But also, they clearly undervalue this UK team. Look at the teams we have H & A with, and the midpoint (which should approximate the odds they would give on Neutral court):
UF 35.6 and 68.7 = 52.15%
UT 51.1 and 24.6 = 37.8%
V 83.4 and 94.8 = 89.1%
Ark 51.1 and 82.3 = 66.7%
MSU 38 and 68.9 = 53.45%

So they consider us barely better than Florida and Miss St, and significantly worse than UT.

Good post, good info.

 

[dlh331]

Cal:
8-0 at MSU
Won last 5 at Florida
Won 3 of last 4 at UT

 

[caneintally]

If Calipari manages to lose 7 regular season games with this group it will be a massive failure.

LOL I think we lose 4-5 BUT even 7 with what 8 freshmen is INSANE. 99.9% of cbb would lose minimum of 10 games with this roster due to youth. I know people don't like to acknowledge Cal is the best there has ever been and probably ever will be with youth in this game but it is proven all the time. I think best case scenario we lose 2 more game worst 6 more games. Even worst case would have us a 2 or 3 seed and SEC champs. OHHH THE HORROR LOL.

 

[bigbluelou]

I think Texas A&M will be tough, but winnable.

Florida, we should win.

I'm not scared of Auburn. MSU? I'll be surprised if we lose that.

@UT will be a tough one.

I think we lose 2 or 3. 5 seems high.

Agree with all the above on paper, but we always have a head scratcher or two. Who knows when those will come. That's why I voted 14-4, not because I think we should lose 4 games but because of those head scratchers.

 

[Woodsmoke]

So we finish with 9 losses overall.

And your ass will be happy

 

[GoBIG BLUE]

It would be a bit of a letdown, but keep in mind, the SEC is very strong as a whole this year.

Three top10 teams in Kenpom.
Two more in the top25
Two in the top50
Five in the top100

The SEC might be one of those conferences where a team going 9-9 is still considered "good" like it was for the B12 and B10 the last few years.(I dont agree with this theory, but if they apply it to other conferences then..)

It's too bad the SEC did so poorly against top25 competition to start the year.

Yeah I was suprised Vandy only lost by 6 to NC State and last week only by 2 to Memphis. They seem to not be as bad as their ranked

 

[JonathanW]

They predict we go 13-5...here's their percentage win probability for each matchup. TIFWIW.

• @Florida: 35.6%
• Missouri: 85.1%
• @Texas A&M: 27.1%
• Miss St: 68.9%
• Georgia: 83.3%
• @S. Carolina: 60.9%
• @Arkansas: 51.1%
• Florida: 68.7%
• Tennessee: 51.1%
• @Vandy: 83.4%
• Ole Miss: 82.4%
• @Auburn: 26.4%
• @LSU: 63.1%
• Alabama: 55.0%
• @Miss St: 38.0%
• Arkansas: 82.3%
• Vandy: 94.8%
• @Tennessee: 24.6%

Their model puts a lot of weight on home/away locations according to the article.

Also, using Expected Value calculation, they are actually estimating us with only 11.9 (round to 12) wins, so 12-6.

 

[bigbluelou]

Also, using Expected Value calculation, they are actually estimating us with only 11.9 (round to 12) wins, so 12-6.

I know some statistics but you are obviously beyond me. What is the expected value calculation that gets this to 11.9?

 

[Smashcat]

Opening on the road at Florida and closing on the road at UT. Nasty bookends.

 

[Blueheart32]

It looks like ESPN just simply copied KenPom predictions.

 

[Cowtown Cat]

Don’t see 5 losses. IMO, 4 at most.

 

[OmahaCats]

If Calipari manages to lose 7 regular season games with this group it will be a massive failure.

I wouldn’t say that

 

[bradscats]

Cal:
8-0 at MSU
Won last 5 at Florida
Won 3 of last 4 at UT

Also won 4 of last 5 at Arkansas.

 

[BigKari]

I think this is close to spot on, I’ve been saying 14-4 which probably wins us the league outright. 13-5, W over Grazonga, and SEC Tourney Final is a 2 seed. Anything better than that, we are in the hunt for a 1.

14-4, beat Zags, & SEC tourney champs, likely secures a 1 seed.

 

[know1]

And your ass will be happy

Not a bit. It's unacceptable here to keep having that many losses every year at UK. I'm upset about it.

It actually seems like you are the one who would be happy with it.

 

[BigKari]

Yeah I was suprised Vandy only lost by 6 to NC State and last week only by 2 to Memphis. They seem to not be as bad as their ranked

Solid coach, suspect talent. Stackhouse needs to get out of there.

 

[Jamal Mercer]

12-6

 

[502 Wildcat]

Conference road games are tough, and we have not played a true road game yet (Louisville was a quasi home game).

For that reason, I do think we split our first two road games, we lose either in Gainesville or College Station. Florida and Texas A&M are both solid teams.

I do think we will figure it out as we go along and get more reps with Bradshaw/Ugo in the lineup (as good as Aaron was against Penn and UNC, we are clearly still adapting). Our defense as a whole still isn't where it needs to be, either. I don't think we will ever be elite defensively with this group but I do think we improve as a team, with rotations, help defense, communication, etc. We still have lapses in that regard, and I don't think that will remain the case as we approach March.

 

[JonathanW]

I know some statistics but you are obviously beyond me. What is the expected value calculation that gets this to 11.9?

It's actually quite simple, just add up each proportion (i.e. 76% =0.76) So, it's the sum of the individual probabilities.

To give an example, say Team X is favored to win all 18 games, BUT they are just barely favored to win them all (say 55% probability for each game). Then you would not expect them to win all 18, but rather you would expect them to win 55% of the 18 games (9.9 round to 10). Each game is a a sample of the entire population of games that two teams could play. Like if you give us 100 games vs UNCW, I would be willing to bet we would win at least 80 of them, but that 1 time we played them (unfortunately) came from the <20% part.

 

[JonathanW]

As a statistician, I think of every event/game as having a certain probability, no game outcome is a certainty. I see 2 games (at UT and at TAMU) where we may be slight underdog, and 1 more (at Auburn) that be a coin toss (50/50). So add up those game probabilities and you get an expected value (number) of wins. So I’ve added my probability estimates for each game above. They add up to 13.55 wins, which I’ll round to 14-4.
I missed the "over/under" part, so 13.5 is closer to my 13.55 calculated estimation. These are personal estimates of game outcomes, and not calculated from my model.

0.75 @ Florida
0.9 Missouri
0.45 @ Texas A&M
0.85 Mississippi St
0.8 @ Georgia
0.8 @South Carolina
0.7 @ Arkansas
0.9 Florida
0.65 Tennessee
0.8 @ Vanderbilt
0.85 Ole Miss
0.5 @ Auburn
0.9 @ LSU
0.8 Alabama
0.7 @ Mississippi St
0.85 Arkansas
0.95 Vanderbilt
0.4 @ Tennessee

 

[the nail at the foul line]

Why do we seem to play at Arkansas every year?

 

[BBNinSC]

It’s never easy to play at Florida, but we have better than a 35% chance of winning. Common sense without help of analytics tells me that we have a 68% chance of winning

 

[JonathanW]

It’s never easy to play at Florida, but we have better than a 35% chance of winning. Common sense without help of analytics tells me that we have a 68% chance of winning

Yeah, the Florida one is the craziest. They give us only a 4.3% larger chance of winning at Florida than they give Florida winning at Rupp.

 

[$Z71$]

The problem with this is it will change every day as more games are played. So with them statistics currently available through 11 games that is the prediction. GameDay odds will be different based on outcomes of every other game played. So looking at this at this point in the season is basically meaningless.

 

[BC_Wader]

Not a bit. It's unacceptable here to keep having that many losses every year at UK. I'm upset about it.

It actually seems like you are the one who would be happy with it.

This isn't a scrub league we play in. Even when the league was down for years recently, it's hard as hell being Kentucky and winning on the road. I'm not a Cal fluffer but he's right when he says we're everyone's Super Bowl. Road conference games seem historically harder for us than any other league team. That KENTUCKY across the chest brings out the best in opponents it seems. With that being said, I see 15 conference wins and that is good in any league. We're gonna be a tough out come tourney time.

 

[CB3UK]

Not buying it. This group is good. I expect 2 maybe 3 losses, but at the end of the season the SEC title is coming home to Lexington. We're not fvcking around this year.

 

[Woodsmoke]

Not a bit. It's unacceptable here to keep having that many losses every year at UK. I'm upset about it.

It actually seems like you are the one who would be happy with it.

“You don’t know the details”

 

[Fox2monk]

They predict we go 13-5...here's their percentage win probability for each matchup. TIFWIW.

• @Florida: 35.6%
• Missouri: 85.1%
• @Texas A&M: 27.1%
• Miss St: 68.9%
• Georgia: 83.3%
• @S. Carolina: 60.9%
• @Arkansas: 51.1%
• Florida: 68.7%
• Tennessee: 51.1%
• @Vandy: 83.4%
• Ole Miss: 82.4%
• @Auburn: 26.4%
• @LSU: 63.1%
• Alabama: 55.0%
• @Miss St: 38.0%
• Arkansas: 82.3%
• Vandy: 94.8%
• @Tennessee: 24.6%

Their model puts a lot of weight on home/away locations according to the article.

Yeah that’s not exactly the best kinda odds I’ve seen. I could see us drop 5 games but I can also see is losing less than 3.