Big Ten, SEC power grab tough to stomach but difficult to argue amid College Football Playoff negotiations
Big Ten and SEC aim to have their brands and schedule strength do the flexing
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Dennis Dodd on SEC- Big 10 power grab
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Eventually going to be 4 conferences with 16 teams or two conferences with 4 divisions of 8 each. 64 total teams. Hope UK is one of them.
I been saying this for awhile, that meeting of Big and SEC commissioner meeting was to discuss GPA. I believe it was the start of what you just posted and how they were going to divide the rest of the teams and to discuss if allmembers of current conferences get in. Vandy could be in trouble because they aren't competitive in football, Tennessee, who wants someone who can't follow rules and then goes off whining. Northwestern and Rutgers could be 2 in trouble from Big.
I think the trigger will be FSU leaving the ACC, 5-6 will probably leave shortly after. If ND wants to remain independent, f'em, let them make a schedule with Sunbelt, mountain west and OVC teams and sell those to TV.
I think there will be a few P4 teams committed and a few group teams get in.
I think this is ready to happen, just waiting for that trigger to be squeezed.
The more I've read & listened too this week, i believe what happens next is the SEC absorbs the best football schools of the ACC.
Because everyone needs to understand, this isn't SEC vs Big 10, not anymore. This is a war of Fox (with minor partners CBS& NBC) vs ESPN/ABC. And ESPN/ABC cannot afford to lose any more good football schools to Fox/Big 10. They already stole Pac 12 After Dark, losing USC/Oregon/Washington 10:30 pm est games will hurt ESPN. ESPN owns ACC tv, they will guide ratings draw programs out of there and to the SEC rather than let any go to the Big 10/Fox.
So, I fully expect the SEC to add FSU, Clemson, N Carolina, NC St, VA Tech, & Virginia. Big 10 will sweep up some scraps, Miami, GA Tech, Pitt, Syracuse.
Because everyone needs to understand, this isn't SEC vs Big 10, not anymore. This is a war of Fox (with minor partners CBS& NBC) vs ESPN/ABC. And ESPN/ABC cannot afford to lose any more good football schools to Fox/Big 10. They already stole Pac 12 After Dark, losing USC/Oregon/Washington 10:30 pm est games will hurt ESPN. ESPN owns ACC tv, they will guide ratings draw programs out of there and to the SEC rather than let any go to the Big 10/Fox.
So, I fully expect the SEC to add FSU, Clemson, N Carolina, NC St, VA Tech, & Virginia. Big 10 will sweep up some scraps, Miami, GA Tech, Pitt, Syracuse.
Uk would have nothing to worry about if it shakes out to 64 teams. It wouldn't even be close. At 48, we should still probably be ok. If it's 32, then we would be on the bubble, if even that.
If this happens looks like dUKe and UL on outside
If basketball was even a third as relevant as football, we'd make a 32 easily. Unfortunately, basketball isn't even THAT relevant.
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The SEC doesn't need, or want, to add a single team. As it is now, a schedule can be devised where every team plays every conference opponent every other season. Add more teams, and goodbye to that. Screw that. A&M STILL hasn't visited Lexington. Devil take that. With that rant over, it would be nice indeed if Louisville gets screwed. I'd like to see the University of Cincinnatah get screwed as well.
They would be welcome in the Big 12! place is already a heckuva basketball conference with Arizona & Kansas & Houston.
I don't think that happens. As I posted above I believe, just opinion, that FSU leaving is the trigger. I also believe SEC takes Miami and FSU and leave the Virgina schools alone.
One think I hadn't really thought much about is that 10:30 game every Saturday night. I half way expect ESPN to push the SEC to fill that slot,
they advised the ACC to add Cal & Stanford to help fill this slot. Probably use Utah/Colorado/Arizona as well.
Exactly, and there would be no benefit whatsoever for a network to have a 10:30 PM SEC game. Have no idea what Grumpy is glooming and dooming about.
Those are the likely options but ESPN going to take some beatings in the ratings when Big can counter with Oregon, Washington, USC and UCLA. Be tough on east coast teams with a 10:30 kickoff.
Not doom and gloom, JHB presented a viable option, but payouts come from ratings which determines how much a commercial cost.. Which game you watching, Oregon vs Wash or Cal vs Stanford at 10:30? If we going to compete for ratings at that time slot we going to have to bite the bullet once or twice a year.
You see it the same way I see it. ESPN is not going to let FOX and the B1G take the best teams out off the ACC. 2024 will be FSU's last year in the ACC. Once that happens the ACC is done.
Yep. There isn't this much smoke for no reason. If the GOR were as all powerful as people think then they wouldn't be doing any maneuvering or talking. The ACCs biggest problem is that they have 5 Vandy's and have to split money with them evenly. FSU has one of the nations gest 'brands' from a marketing standpoint... and they get squat for it because they are stuck playing Wake, Duke and BC. Even Miami fell off a cliff once they landed in the ACC. It's just not a good football conf for modern audiences.
If that happens I can see UK dropping FB because it would become an expense rather than a revenue stream.
It won't be D1-AA, that's already spoken for.
I think it is more likely another subdivision is formed. Everyone between Super BCS league and D1-AA will form a division. Basically, the bottom half/ 6-8 teams in each P5 and some G5.
I don't think it will be 64 teams, because that is the exact issue we are facing right now and why there is all the upheaval/fuss. Too many people are lumped into "P5/BCS". The upper middle class to top class of P5 have separated.
In no way is it logical or fair to drop Va-Tech, UL, Miss St, Kansas St, Oklahoma St, etc onto Furman, North Dakota St, etc...
That's literally why D1-AA exists, there was a separation. D1/P5/BCS football separated from them.
That's all that is happening here. Another separation has occurred naturally over time as a couple dozen programs just got bigger, better, richer, etc...
Also, UK will make the cut. We are one of few dozen athletic programs that are self-funding, and actually make some money in another sport other than football. We also have at the very least big regional appeal, and even a little bit of national mass appeal with some decent alumni strongholds across the nation.
Football would not be dropped if we didn't make the cut because it would still be the biggest money maker. Just like NDSU football is the biggest money maker for them. They didn't drop it just because they're not "P5 BCS"
With little or no TV money, FB becomes very expensive (especially at 88 scholarships). I can definitely see schools that would not be profitable without TV decide to eliminate the expense.
This is one option I can see happening. I think that top group will be a small group with basically no rules about NIL. UGA won't be in that top group, we just don't have the mega boosters for that.
A UK professor did a study in the 80's that showed most athletic depts lost money. People donating money makes up for the loss at the vast majority of schools. If the top 40ish schools go on their own for football and basketball then the other sports are going to have to some massive changes.
If Furman can afford a solid football team, we can.
Again, football makes money. Even without TV. 55,000 seats at $40, give or take whatever the average price is, plus the lounges/suites, plus alcohol, plus $5 dogs and water. Multiplied by 8 games. Then the K fund and big boosters. Plus, the trademark royalties, local media deals.
Also, this idea that there will not be a market for anyone outside of the BCS super/semi pro league is false. That's like saying nobody cares about football outside of the NFL.
Streaming services, apple, YouTube, amazon, Facebook, twitter, would all probably line up and divvy up rights. Or even the big traditional media, comcast, fox, Disney would still probably be interested in whatever division/league formed once big BCS league separated. Maybe not at as big of a price tag, but still, it's content.
Trent Dilfer was on radio with Cole Cubelic last week talking about the future structure if CFB. Dilfer is not just a G5 head coach at UAB, but is connected as you can get. Former ESPN talking head, NFL QB, recruiting event organizer.
Dilfer said a breakaway of the top 40, top 50 programs is in the motion. And this isn't a 5 yr thing, a 10 yr away event. This could happen as soon as next yr, in 18 months. Earlier in this thread it was asked how schools get the money to get out of ACC grant of rights, Dilfer says the answer for all of this breakaway thing is private investment equity. Brokerage companies are literally going around CFB folks and doing analysis asking "how much is the Georgia athletic department worth, how about FSU, and Texas."
Why a breakaway, because there is so damn much money. And it is making less and less sence for the Ohios and Alabamas and Texases to share the huge money they feel they are responsible for drawing with the Purdues and Vandys and Northwesterns. Or even giving big payday games to Kent St and Middle Tennessee and Buffalo.
Fans who recently say "wow I don't like all the changes in CFB, the NIL and portal...." have no idea, no clue the massive reorganization that is still to come. Where would Kentucky land on this shakeup? Wish I could say I'm confident in our inclusion.
Dilfer said a breakaway of the top 40, top 50 programs is in the motion. And this isn't a 5 yr thing, a 10 yr away event. This could happen as soon as next yr, in 18 months. Earlier in this thread it was asked how schools get the money to get out of ACC grant of rights, Dilfer says the answer for all of this breakaway thing is private investment equity. Brokerage companies are literally going around CFB folks and doing analysis asking "how much is the Georgia athletic department worth, how about FSU, and Texas."
Why a breakaway, because there is so damn much money. And it is making less and less sence for the Ohios and Alabamas and Texases to share the huge money they feel they are responsible for drawing with the Purdues and Vandys and Northwesterns. Or even giving big payday games to Kent St and Middle Tennessee and Buffalo.
Fans who recently say "wow I don't like all the changes in CFB, the NIL and portal...." have no idea, no clue the massive reorganization that is still to come. Where would Kentucky land on this shakeup? Wish I could say I'm confident in our inclusion.
UK was ranked 16th on most profitable Ath Dept list. I would feel confident in being in a top40 and likely top 30. Top 25 would likely put us out just due to population and economics.
If it goes this route I honestly wouldn’t mind being in the Triple-A or new Group of 5 or whatever ranks. This ish isn’t even college football anymore. And I don’t mean “back when the kids just played for the love of the game.” I mean, college football without these traditional rivalries, etc. is just pro football light. Don’t care one bit about not being a part of that
There is a potential for thousand's of fans all across the country just drop being a FB fan, I can see it happen... May not but I believe lot's of people will give it a thought.... Depends on what happens to UK of how I would feel, I don't watch other teams like I used too... I only watch if UK is playing, I also stopped watch as many pro games...
GBB
GBB
I am not 100% basketball won't remain as it is today. I mean it works pretty well so why mess with it? Whatever happens, it's being driven by football. I couldn't tell you what nights bb plays.
We would make 32 I feel like. Anything less would be def room to worry.
How profitable the department is won’t have anything to do with making it in or not. If it’s a 64 team breakout I feel good about being in but if it’s less than that I do not.
Could you imagine how s#1tfaced fans would be tailgating all day for a 10:30/9:30 Central time kickoff?
If there is a majority of schools leaving I don’t they have to pay any at all. The problem last time they tried was they were one or two votes short . I’m not sure what bringing the new three teams in does to that vote .
However if ten teams go then they should have a majority any way .
A majority of schools leaving isn't needed to kill the ACC. One entity by itself can decide to kill the ACC, and their time to do it is in 10 months.
Know who? ESPN.
How? The vaunted ESPN ACC TV agreement that every media guy has cited for years that lasts until 2035....doesn't. ESPN can kill it after 2027. And if they decide that, they will notify the ACC in Jan 2025.
saturdayroad.com
Try & tell me how any judge, even in North Carolina Court, will rule FSU owes $550M in forfeited grant of rights....if there are no longer any ESPN TV rights to grant?
Again, like I said above this isn't about SEC vs Big 10, it is Fox vs ESPN. IMO next year ESPN notifies ACC it is terminating the TV deal. Then 4 to 6 ACC schools go to the SEC after 2027. So ESPN can keep FSU from becoming an unrestricted free agent, who can be scooped up by Fox & the Big 10. Clemson, North Carolina, prob NC St & VA Tech come along as a bonus.
Then remnants of the ACC get picked over by Fox/Big 10, Miami, Geo Tech, Pitt, Duke, the schools with good academic reps.
If all this shakes out it will be damn hard for the Doamers to remain on the sidelines
Know who? ESPN.
How? The vaunted ESPN ACC TV agreement that every media guy has cited for years that lasts until 2035....doesn't. ESPN can kill it after 2027. And if they decide that, they will notify the ACC in Jan 2025.
ESPN to have 'unilateral' option to end media rights deal with ACC, per report - Saturday Road
ESPN's media deal with the ACC includes an interesting twist.
saturdayroad.com
Try & tell me how any judge, even in North Carolina Court, will rule FSU owes $550M in forfeited grant of rights....if there are no longer any ESPN TV rights to grant?
Again, like I said above this isn't about SEC vs Big 10, it is Fox vs ESPN. IMO next year ESPN notifies ACC it is terminating the TV deal. Then 4 to 6 ACC schools go to the SEC after 2027. So ESPN can keep FSU from becoming an unrestricted free agent, who can be scooped up by Fox & the Big 10. Clemson, North Carolina, prob NC St & VA Tech come along as a bonus.
Then remnants of the ACC get picked over by Fox/Big 10, Miami, Geo Tech, Pitt, Duke, the schools with good academic reps.
If all this shakes out it will be damn hard for the Doamers to remain on the sidelines
Thats exactly where I have felt we are heading, even posted it a couple times. That meeting the Big and SEC commissioners had wasn't to discuss graduation rates. I think it was to discuss who in those 2 conferences were going to be in, or out. I think everyone in SEC is in, other than maybe Vandy, maybe Arky. But I think 3-4 of the Big will on the bubble too. And to discuss out the ACC and Big12 will be divided. I think there will be several schools from both of those conferences omitted.
I have no idea if this good or bad. With the amount of money be discussed TV will determine schedules and cupcake games will be a thing of the past. I believe there will be 64 teams in this with 2 "conferences" and 3 divisions in each conference. Play everyone in your division and fill the schedule with teams from other divisions or maybe a couple crossovers against the other conference. Don't think it will be on free TV anymore, every game will be PPV. Just my opinion, right or wrong its what i am going with for now.
A majority of schools leaving isn't needed to kill the ACC. One entity by itself can decide to kill the ACC, and their time to do it is in 10 months.
Know who? ESPN.
How? The vaunted ESPN ACC TV agreement that every media guy has cited for years that lasts until 2035....doesn't. ESPN can kill it after 2027. And if they decide that, they will notify the ACC in Jan 2025.
ESPN to have 'unilateral' option to end media rights deal with ACC, per report - Saturday Road
ESPN's media deal with the ACC includes an interesting twist.
Try & tell me how any judge, even in North Carolina Court, will rule FSU owes $550M in forfeited grant of rights....if there are no longer any ESPN TV rights to grant?
Again, like I said above this isn't about SEC vs Big 10, it is Fox vs ESPN. IMO next year ESPN notifies ACC it is terminating the TV deal. Then 4 to 6 ACC schools go to the SEC after 2027. So ESPN can keep FSU from becoming an unrestricted free agent, who can be scooped up by Fox & the Big 10. Clemson, North Carolina, prob NC St & VA Tech come along as a bonus.
Then remnants of the ACC get picked over by Fox/Big 10, Miami, Geo Tech, Pitt, Duke, the schools with good academic reps.
If all this shakes out it will be damn hard for the Doamers to remain on the sidelines
You and I agree on an awful lot about how we think this plays out.
Need to keep conferences as is for all other sports- let football do its own thing
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