Will UK experience a top 20 FB Season?
- Thread starter mtn cat1
- Start date
Despite the returnees, there's a lot of questions surrounding this team. I'm not convinced they'll break .500.
A lot depends on the QB. Baring injury we will have a run game but to be top 20 we have to have a passing game. Hopefully Wilson or Hoak will be the QB we have needed since Woodson.
Yeah its tough to say. The defense should be improved and they run game should be great. As mentioned before will depend a lot on QB play. If Wilson or Hoak really perform then its not out of the realm to see us in the top 25. We do have a difficult start to the season. First 6 games at CMU, @ Florida, Murray St, Miss State, South Carolina then at A&M before the bye week. Gotta start at least 3-3. If you can open the year 4-2 before the bye we are in great shape.
Until they show me something different on the field of play, I consider the Cats to be range-bound between 5-7 and 7-5 in the regular season, and have felt this way for the past several seasons. That said, I'd love to see a breakout season.
I like your optimism OP, but in my mind, fringe top 25 is probably more realistic. I try to temper my expectations and take it one game at a time. I hope you're right though! Go Cats!
All about QB play.
This past season would've been top 20 had they finished off either UF or Ole Miss plus a bowl win...
As bad as the defense was and as close to 5-7 as we could've been, top 20 season was realistic last year...so this year its realistic if we get any type of decent QB play (big IF).
This past season would've been top 20 had they finished off either UF or Ole Miss plus a bowl win...
As bad as the defense was and as close to 5-7 as we could've been, top 20 season was realistic last year...so this year its realistic if we get any type of decent QB play (big IF).
I'b be pleasantly surprised, but not counting on it. The only loss I see getting even mildly easier is MSU & we were blown out there. I think @ MO gets significantly harder. Being @ LV makes that still tough. Net, 6-6 +/- 1 seems about right to me.
Scheduling matters:
-3 games are setup for Kentucky to have easy wins. Have to win them, no excuses.
-Vanderbilt, SC, and Mizzou. These are teams we have beaten the last 2-4 seasons and need to continue to keep them in their places. Win these 3 and it gets you to 6 wins.
-Louisville, Tennessee, Mississippi State. These teams that have our number over the last 10-20-30 years, but we are not far off from beating them. Louisville loses their entire production from last season, we have to beat them. Mississippi State returns a lot, but loses a coach that had our number along with the game being at home. Tennessee is not better than us and I think we return more while they break in a new staff. Win 2 of 3 of these games and you are at 8 wins(historic season already)
-Georgia, TAMU, Florida. Three different teams, but 3 teams that just seem like they are on another level than us talent wise. Georgia is the best of the 3, but we get them at home. TAMU has a new coach, but soooo much talent and a crazy stadium. Florida...well you know the deal. Win 1 game and you get to 9 wins.
There is our 9-3 season where we can be ranked. Winning SEC record too. Not impossible at all, but knowing our history..
-3 games are setup for Kentucky to have easy wins. Have to win them, no excuses.
-Vanderbilt, SC, and Mizzou. These are teams we have beaten the last 2-4 seasons and need to continue to keep them in their places. Win these 3 and it gets you to 6 wins.
-Louisville, Tennessee, Mississippi State. These teams that have our number over the last 10-20-30 years, but we are not far off from beating them. Louisville loses their entire production from last season, we have to beat them. Mississippi State returns a lot, but loses a coach that had our number along with the game being at home. Tennessee is not better than us and I think we return more while they break in a new staff. Win 2 of 3 of these games and you are at 8 wins(historic season already)
-Georgia, TAMU, Florida. Three different teams, but 3 teams that just seem like they are on another level than us talent wise. Georgia is the best of the 3, but we get them at home. TAMU has a new coach, but soooo much talent and a crazy stadium. Florida...well you know the deal. Win 1 game and you get to 9 wins.
There is our 9-3 season where we can be ranked. Winning SEC record too. Not impossible at all, but knowing our history..
I am sorry but if you think the op is really being optimistic then you must not have read many of his posts. He is anti Stoops anti Cal,, just pretty much anti. IMO he is just trying to set up a disappointment!
Its all about execution and game planning when you begin to have older experienced players starting and in waiting depth. We probably have some starting that are not as talented as we hope we'll have in the future but they are miles ahead of what we have seen in the past so if the players perform and the coaches coach and prepare them well for the games, the sky should be the only limit.
![[eyeroll]](http://l.yimg.com/j/assets/img/emoticons/rolleye/rolleye0011.r191677.gif "Eye roll [eyeroll]")
I think so, but a few breaks, plus or minus, will be the deciding factor.
Quarterback play and line play. Our D line was what it was, but our line for whatever reason has yet to equal their run blocking with their pass blocking.
I got high hopes, but gotta see some big steps up.
I got high hopes, but gotta see some big steps up.
2018...very few high quality teams average in the low to mid 20's ...unless UK crosses that 28 -35 threshold they don't stand a chance. Let's hope changes are made to get there. The offense is in much worse shape than the defense because of schemes.
That's why we play the games, instead of deciding the season in internet posts. Because of the chicken little corner in our fan base, there is always a lot of pessimism and glass half empty sentiment here. Every team enters every season with questions to answer. Chance Poore will have a big responsibility on his shoulders. Our returning defensive linemen have to step it up. But I see 17 returning starters including Benny Snell, Josh Allen, Mike Edwards. I like our chances, and I think this is Stoops' best team to date.
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Big range of possible outcomes. I'll tell you what kind of season I expect after a conference game, maybe two.
Our season hinges on QB play. We have had average to good QB play the last 2 years and have been 7-5.. yes Johnson won us some games so h his grit. But without having blue tinited glasses on our QB play has been average. If Wilson or Hoak can play at above average to really good we have a chance to build something special for UK standards.
I don't know that I've been this cautiously optimistic, I am excited and think that this team can take us places we haven't been in more than a decade. I also know the perennial heartbreak that comes with being a UK football fan.
Would definitely take 9 or maybe even 10 regular season wins, barring a win over Georgia or someone else highly ranked. South Carolina won 8 regular season games (9 with the bowl win over Michigan) and didn't crack the Top 25.
SEC East schedule doesn't give a ton of opportunities for respect-earning wins.
SEC East schedule doesn't give a ton of opportunities for respect-earning wins.
Think the schedule will be much tougher this fall...staff dropped the ball last season.
IMO we were a quarterback away from having 9/10 wins this year - so if Wilson fits the bill - we should be good.
Problem is, how much do teams like Fla, UT, etc improve with their new staffs?
Problem is, how much do teams like Fla, UT, etc improve with their new staffs?
I think you screwed one thing up in your post, instead of the chicken little corner we have the chicken tiny corner, not tiny in speaking out though.
I'm looking at 12-1. lose to Harris and Wills in the SEC playoff-----hard to beat those Kentucky players even if they have the wrong jersey on------of course this prediction is before we play our first game.
I will be thrilled with nine wins, fairly satisfied with eight------which means we still lose some games I hate to lose, Georgia the only one we should be a real long shot in-------with our reputation (well earned from decades of neglect) we will probably be underdogs in most games.
And PRP, I think we should rearrange the schedule so we play Florida, MSU, AND Thug U the first game of the year before their coaches settle in. A triple header on opening day.
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Like everyone else UK has the 3 built in wins for 18. One positive for UK is 4 of their SEC opponents will have new coaches and installing new schemes. But the other side of that is 3 of them are upgrades, MSU may not be.
The other teans, Missouri, seemed to figure some things out late in the season and ended up finishing strong and return some offense including a very good QB. Bandy loses their all time leading rusher but return an experienced QB. SC, LOSES the top TE in the conference but may have the best group of WR in the conference and are getting maybe the most explosive player in the conference back. But they lose quite a bit defensively including their best player. UGA loses Chubb and Michel, but return Swift who averaged nearly 8ypc and Holyfield was at almost 6, plus the leading WR, and 1 OL. I think UGAs offense will be as effective and much more balanced. Defensively we have to replace 7 starters, all can be except for Smith, we don't have anyone to replace him.
The other teans, Missouri, seemed to figure some things out late in the season and ended up finishing strong and return some offense including a very good QB. Bandy loses their all time leading rusher but return an experienced QB. SC, LOSES the top TE in the conference but may have the best group of WR in the conference and are getting maybe the most explosive player in the conference back. But they lose quite a bit defensively including their best player. UGA loses Chubb and Michel, but return Swift who averaged nearly 8ypc and Holyfield was at almost 6, plus the leading WR, and 1 OL. I think UGAs offense will be as effective and much more balanced. Defensively we have to replace 7 starters, all can be except for Smith, we don't have anyone to replace him.
I think that if Snell goes down, the QB position remains in question, and the defense doesn't change much from last yr........4-5 wins is very possible.
However, if Benny-be-Benny, the QB question is answered, and the defense takes a good step forward.................9 wins is very possible.
Which means that realistically we're someone in the middle.......~7 wins.
However, if Benny-be-Benny, the QB question is answered, and the defense takes a good step forward.................9 wins is very possible.
Which means that realistically we're someone in the middle.......~7 wins.
I'm not sold on A&M or their new staff. I think this one might be the key to a "special" season.
We've performed well above expectations the last three seasons in at least one SEC road game, and I hope that tendency travels well to College Station.
I think these 2 comments realistically address the 2018 situation. The real issue here is "returning performance" not so much "returning players". Experience means A LOT in QB play but it is hard to assess experience otherwise.
If you were "good" last year and return many players there is a certain logical expectation to be "good" again this year. If you were "bad" last year and return many players the issue becomes "improvement" and that can be a dicey proposition. All assuming a similar SOS of course.
Last year the Cats returned 17 starters (per Phil Steele) from a team that went 7-6 in 2016. Just looking at some big numbers, in 2016 the Cats were #56 in total offense (424 YPG) and #88 in total defense (450 YPGA). In 2017 the Cats were #106 in total offense (343 YPG) and #93 in total defense (436 YPGA). There was no improvement in 2017 over 2016 and they went 7-6 each year. Furthermore, Sagarin had the 2016 SOS at #46 and the 2017 SOS at #61.
FWIW, the very early S&P+ 2018 Projections have 7 2018 opponents ranked higher than #64 UK with spreads ranging from +5.4 (SC) to +22.1 (GA), unadjusted for home fields. Only 3 opponents are ranked in his Top 25 (MSU, aTm and GA) but UofL, MO, FL and SC are ranked between #29 and #34.
Peace
Maybe next year we can make U6 have to punt and score more than 17 points on them when they had given up 30+ pts to 8 different teams.
I am looking forward to it.
Are you, sometimes I wonder, might mean an extension for Stoops-------and Gran-----and Marrow-------and several other good coaches I think he has gradually managed to assemble.
It is exciting to start all over again, isn't it, and it is what we are noted for.
As much as liked SJ, I also agree with you on this. We need a little more electricity at the position.
Have to get nasty on defense to crack the top 20. We don't play an offensive style to do it on offense alone. If the defense gets stingy, we can do it. I think we are starting to build the depth at LB and DB to do that but not sure it will be this year.
That's a safe prediction, since every team's season hinges on quarterback play. But this team will need defensive stops. As long as Benny Snell stays healthy, our offense will have an opportunity to develop chemistry and be productive. But an improved defense will be the difference between a decent season and a breakout season.
