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Vegas Tourney Odds

KneeBurns

Junior
Mar 18, 2006
2,050
510
113
For those of you wondering what “our friends in the desert” think


Gonzaga +300
Zona 650
Kentucky 800
Kansas 850
Baylor, Auburn 1200
Nova Tennessee 1400
Coach Ratface and the fallin’ Floppers 1600



 
For those of you wondering what “our friends in the desert” think


Gonzaga +300
Zona 650
Kentucky 800
Kansas 850
Baylor, Auburn 1200
Nova Tennessee 1400
Coach Ratface and the fallin’ Floppers 1600




First time we’ve seen you since UK blasted your Jayhawks. You didn’t even stop by to tip your cap. :(
 
A component of handicapping is gauging the public intrest but to act like it isn't a close representation of who they think (handicap) will win, from an odds standpoint, is silly.
Odds are set to get 1/2 on each side while casinos take the juice. They don't build those buildings because they are gambling. They build those buildings because we are gambling. Depending on the collective wisdom of all gamblers, odds move. Because the collective wisdom of all gamblers is really good, we see so many games be decided by the hook (1/2 point). Vegas oddsmakers are no doubt good, but it is everyone gambling everywhere that set the ultimate odds.
 
Odds are set to get 1/2 on each side while casinos take the juice. They don't build those buildings because they are gambling. They build those buildings because we are gambling. Depending on the collective wisdom of all gamblers, odds move. Because the collective wisdom of all gamblers is really good, we see so many games be decided by the hook (1/2 point). Vegas oddsmakers are no doubt good, but it is everyone gambling everywhere that set the ultimate odds.
Ive been handicapping since I was 16 years old. Nothing you said has anything to do with what I mentioned.

spreads are set by handicappers before the first dollar is laid. Those lines are set based on a multitude of factors (analytics being used primarily now).

once it opens of course the betting public (potentially) will move a point spread. But generally speaking, the handicappers are so accurate, that there will be even money come in on each side of that point spread.

More times than not, the point spread won't move, but the money may move slightly. Go from -110 on each side so -115 and -105...etc

he said the list of favorites to win it all weren't indicative of who they "think" will win. My answer to that is they don't "think". They handicap. And those handicaps will be very close to what they "think" a score will be. In his case it wasn't about a point spread, but rather odds to win it all. The list above is absolutely who they "think" will win it all from an odds standpoint. That "thought" takes into account where they believe money will/should fall.

and you are correct, they aren't building billion dollar casinos because everyone is winning
 
Ive been handicapping since I was 16 years old. Nothing you said has anything to do with what I mentioned.

spreads are set by handicappers before the first dollar is laid. Those lines are set based on a multitude of factors (analytics being used primarily now).

once it opens of course the betting public (potentially) will move a point spread. But generally speaking, the handicappers are so accurate, that there will be even money come in on each side of that point spread.

More times than not, the point spread won't move, but the money may move slightly. Go from -110 on each side so -115 and -105...etc

he said the list of favorites to win it all weren't indicative of who they "think" will win. My answer to that is they don't "think". They handicap. And those handicaps will be very close to what they "think" a score will be. In his case it wasn't about a point spread, but rather odds to win it all. The list above is absolutely who they "think" will win it all from an odds standpoint. That "thought" takes into account where they believe money will/should fall.

and you are correct, they aren't building billion dollar casinos because everyone is winning
I didn't quote your post to disagree with you, I guess I was just adding to what you said. I don't think we disagree.
 
Vegas is giving these teams a 94% chance of winning it. I’ve got it at 62%. Close, but off just subtly enough for them to make money.
 
For the record, 14-1 for UT is the only one of these where I think Vegas is giving you better odds than they should. Auburn is close.
 
Ive been handicapping since I was 16 years old. Nothing you said has anything to do with what I mentioned.

spreads are set by handicappers before the first dollar is laid. Those lines are set based on a multitude of factors (analytics being used primarily now).

once it opens of course the betting public (potentially) will move a point spread. But generally speaking, the handicappers are so accurate, that there will be even money come in on each side of that point spread.

More times than not, the point spread won't move, but the money may move slightly. Go from -110 on each side so -115 and -105...etc

he said the list of favorites to win it all weren't indicative of who they "think" will win. My answer to that is they don't "think". They handicap. And those handicaps will be very close to what they "think" a score will be. In his case it wasn't about a point spread, but rather odds to win it all. The list above is absolutely who they "think" will win it all from an odds standpoint. That "thought" takes into account where they believe money will/should fall.

and you are correct, they aren't building billion dollar casinos because everyone is winning
Your medal is in the mail SIR
Jeez
 
Who wins Indiana/Wyoming tonight??
Just curious what your OPINION is??

I’ll say
Indiana 74
Wyoming 67

so I’ll say IN -7

who u got???
 
Ive been handicapping since I was 16 years old. Nothing you said has anything to do with what I mentioned.

spreads are set by handicappers before the first dollar is laid. Those lines are set based on a multitude of factors (analytics being used primarily now).

once it opens of course the betting public (potentially) will move a point spread. But generally speaking, the handicappers are so accurate, that there will be even money come in on each side of that point spread.

More times than not, the point spread won't move, but the money may move slightly. Go from -110 on each side so -115 and -105...etc

he said the list of favorites to win it all weren't indicative of who they "think" will win. My answer to that is they don't "think". They handicap. And those handicaps will be very close to what they "think" a score will be. In his case it wasn't about a point spread, but rather odds to win it all. The list above is absolutely who they "think" will win it all from an odds standpoint. That "thought" takes into account where they believe money will/should fall.

and you are correct, they aren't building billion dollar casinos because everyone is winning
Don’t forget that Vegas gets millions of betting monies from California and with Zags a top seed they will affect the odds on the other teams.
 
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