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Updated Win/Loss Projections for the SEC

Oct 10, 2008
5,407
8,793
113
Springboro, Ohio
What are your thoughts?



Hot off the presses from @BetDSI

SEC Regular Season Win Totals:

Alabama 10.5 (Over -130, Under +110)
Georgia 10.5
Auburn 9
Miss. St. 8
LSU 7.5
Texas A&M 7
S. Carolina 7
Florida 7
Missouri 6.5
Ole Miss 6
Kentucky 6
Tennessee 5.5
Arkansas 5.5
Vanderbilt 5
 
With a gun to my head and I had to bet,, I would take under on Bama and Ga,, 11 wins doesn't leave much room for error. Would take over on UK b/c I think anything under 7 wins will be very very disappointing.
 
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Pretty good listing . . . . and it points out our key games for getting to a winning SEC slate: TAMU, Mizzou, Kentucky, Vandy, South Carolina, Tennessee and Florida are listed from 5 to 7 wins. We MUST make hay when the sun is shining against these opponents in 2018, to make a solid step forward.
 
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The schedule does not line up in Ky's favor. Tex A/M replacing Ole Miss is never good.Playing them at their place is a certain loss. We win 3-4 ooc games + Vandy. Tough season. We go 4-8. If things go in our favor, we may pick up a win at Mizzou and maybe sneak one out vs. USC or ul. IMO, 6 wins is our max for this season.
 
The schedule does not line up in Ky's favor. Tex A/M replacing Ole Miss is never good.Playing them at their place is a certain loss. We win 3-4 ooc games + Vandy. Tough season. We go 4-8. If things go in our favor, we may pick up a win at Mizzou and maybe sneak one out vs. USC or ul. IMO, 6 wins is our max for this season.

Really? 1 SEC win?
 
so,, you won't be disappointed if UK is 4-8?
Never said that. But 6 wins will include an upset or two won’t it? If you have to have two upsets to get to .500, you can’t be upset with 6-6. You want 7 wins to be satisfied. Do you expect 3 upsets?
 
Never said that. But 6 wins will include an upset or two won’t it? If you have to have two upsets to get to .500, you can’t be upset with 6-6. You want 7 wins to be satisfied. Do you expect 3 upsets?
First off, you don't know that we will be underdogs 8 times. You won't find a line on individual games that far out for good reason, Vegas doesn't know which team will be best in each game this far ahead. If we have the season I expect then we will be favored more often at not at game time.
 
Projecting a whole season right now is one or two injuries away from being zero per cent right.
Waaaaaaaaay too many variables.
Kentuckys first bowl season under Mark Stoops involved an injured can't miss four star quarterback being replaced by an unheard of JC. Also had a three star running back no one knew much of turning into a thousand yard powerhouse.
Last year's 9 win team turned into a barely 7 win team when the heralded strength of the team....the secondary...turned into a sieve.

Gotta wait and see.
 
First off, you don't know that we will be underdogs 8 times. You won't find a line on individual games that far out for good reason, Vegas doesn't know which team will be best in each game this far ahead. If we have the season I expect then we will be favored more often at not at game time.
You expect to be favored more often than not. You are expecting to be favored in 7 out of 12 games then. I hope you're right but I think you are setting yourself up for disappointment with those expectations.
 
You expect to be favored more often than not. You are expecting to be favored in 7 out of 12 games then. I hope you're right but I think you are setting yourself up for disappointment with those expectations.
look me up after the season on here, you might find me disappointed. Then again, you might not, we will see!
 
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Never said that. But 6 wins will include an upset or two won’t it? If you have to have two upsets to get to .500, you can’t be upset with 6-6. You want 7 wins to be satisfied. Do you expect 3 upsets?

Ehhhh, how many of our past SEC wins were we favored in? What does that matter? Plus, it's very possible we will be favored vs Tennessee. Our past 4 SC wins, we were the underdogs. I'm not sure what you're talking about, if you measure how a season should go based on if your team is going to be favored, then that's pretty sad my friend. Pretty laughable really. If we get less than 7 wins with this team, the majority of this fanbase will not be happy. Fans don't look at Vegas lines and say "hey it's alright, we were 7 point dogs" we shouldn't have won anyway. Not how the average football fan opperates. If they did, the majority of SEC coaches from 10 years ago would still have their jobs.

Not to mention you have no clue how a team will end up being by the time we play them. Last preseason Florida was projected SEC E champs, Mizzou wasn't going to even win 4 games, Georgia wasnt a playoff team, SC was going to stomp us, MSU was going to be bad, Ole Miss was an easy win, Tenn was going to improve, we would have a great secondary.
 
Ehhhh, how many of our past SEC wins were we favored in? What does that matter? Plus, it's very possible we will be favored vs Tennessee. Our past 4 SC wins, we were the underdogs. I'm not sure what you're talking about, if you measure how a season should go based on if your team is going to be favored, then that's pretty sad my friend. Pretty laughable really. If we get less than 7 wins with this team, the majority of this fanbase will not be happy. Fans don't look at Vegas lines and say "hey it's alright, we were 7 point dogs" we shouldn't have won anyway. Not how the average football fan opperates. If they did, the majority of SEC coaches from 10 years ago would still have their jobs.

Not to mention you have no clue how a team will end up being by the time we play them. Last preseason Florida was projected SEC E champs, Mizzou wasn't going to even win 4 games, Georgia wasnt a playoff team, SC was going to stomp us, MSU was going to be bad, Ole Miss was an easy win, Tenn was going to improve, we would have a great secondary.

How in the heck else am I supposed to measure how I think season should go? It's called a prediction. What are you basing the record on? You are guessing as much as I am. All the teams you listed above could be worlds better (you have no clue how a team will end up by the time we play them). What then? We shall see but I've seen enough UK football that I won't be sucked in to the 7 wins or bust crowd. (unless you count 7-6 with a bowl win) I think we will be a better team than last year but the record may not reflect it. I just don't see 4-4 again in the SEC. The SEC is a brutal bitch. You are right though that UT very well could be a train wreck by the time we play them. I hope the same for UL at the end of the season. If we get that win on the road and are 4-0 in the non-conference I'll feel a little better about your 7 win season. I'm going in to the season hoping for 6-6 and a bowl and anything else will be extra.
 
If the odds were being set today I think UK would probably be favored in 2 SEC games, underdogs in 3 and the other 4 would be a 2 pt or less and I don't know which team would be favored. Favored over Vandy and UT. Vandy has trouble getting the athletes to compete in football, inspite of what UT fans will tell you, their talent level isn't number 4 in the conference, maybe according to the rankings but that isn't taking into account all the players who left the program after a year. Underdogs against UGA, A&M and Carolina. UGA is going to be young but UK is catching them too late in the year, A&M is very talented, they have been about as undisciplined as any SEC team you will see. In spite of UK on a 4 game streak, Carolina will have maybe the best WR group in the conference led by a returning Debo Samuel and a 3 year starter at QB. Plus they got better as the year went alone. Missouri will have a top QB who will give eveery defense trouble, MSST will return a top QB, if recovered, who is a huge threat to run, UF has brought in 1 transfer WR who is suppose to be eligible and another who is applying for a hardship to be eligible, plus getting numerous suspended players back.

But every team has some questions to answer.

UK-QB play and improved DL
Vandy-replacing Webb and improve defense
UT-May have the most find a QB and RB, entire defense plus adapting a new scheme
Missour-Will they play defense
UF-QB play and defense
Carolina-find a secondary and improved DL play.
UGA-will be young on defense, can the running threat be replaced
 
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Never said that. But 6 wins will include an upset or two won’t it? If you have to have two upsets to get to .500, you can’t be upset with 6-6. You want 7 wins to be satisfied. Do you expect 3 upsets?

If we are underdogs in 8 games then yes.
 
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Playing them at their place is a certain loss.

A & M is an enigma wrapped in a riddle at this point. I do not count them as an automatic loss.

And South Carolina?

We played half a game of "keep away" with them at their place last year, to preserve a win that was pretty obvious from the start of the second half. They lost most of their defense, including perhaps their best LB in program history.
 
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How in the heck else am I supposed to measure how I think season should go? It's called a prediction. What are you basing the record on? You are guessing as much as I am. All the teams you listed above could be worlds better (you have no clue how a team will end up by the time we play them). What then? We shall see but I've seen enough UK football that I won't be sucked in to the 7 wins or bust crowd. (unless you count 7-6 with a bowl win) I think we will be a better team than last year but the record may not reflect it. I just don't see 4-4 again in the SEC. The SEC is a brutal bitch. You are right though that UT very well could be a train wreck by the time we play them. I hope the same for UL at the end of the season. If we get that win on the road and are 4-0 in the non-conference I'll feel a little better about your 7 win season. I'm going in to the season hoping for 6-6 and a bowl and anything else will be extra.
Your thinking is spot on. There are 4 wins at this point and I would call us a favorite at UT. We will have to upset somebody to get to 6. Could we win 7 or 8? Absolutely. A lot of things could happen and several of these will have to happen for us to win more than 6.

While we pull some upsets, we can't give up any upsets.
Our QB could turn out to be special.
We could meet one or two opponents who have injuries to key players or they have imploded.
We could play a team that picks us to have 4 or 5 turnovers.

These are all things we can hope for but to expect these things to happen is refusing to remove the blue tinted shades.
 
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aTm.....I thought when Johnny Football led them to an Alabama win they were there. Always seem to have depth, talent.....and fade down the stretch. Sometimes in a bizarre fashion.
What will JF bring them to???? Gonna be interesting.
S Carolina....maybe so. It seems they lost an awful lot on d, though.
Vandy....it always seems they get right to the edge then fall backwards. To be honest, I was hoping Mason would step back and UK would offer him the DC slot.
Missouri.....they are gonna score.
Mississippi State, well.....without Mullen, we will see.
Florida was an enigma last year. Too much talent to not be better.
Tennessee.....gonna be some hand wringing and growing pains.
Kentucky....if the defense and quarterback play can be more efficient, they should be competitive.

I will have to put in my opinion on this....with the returning experience and some greater depth on defense, if they ARENT improved then perhaps that DC hunt needs to go into high gear.
 
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I've never really been on the Stoops bandwagon and if 6 or less wins happens, I think a bunch more people will be off as well. Year 6 and we might fall back a couple of games in the win column with a bunch of coaching changes and us with the most talented team at UK ever (by the rankings).

That is why the last couple of years were disappointments to me with so many teams down and we blew our chance at big years (should have had at least 9 wins with last year's schedule and how down a bunch of teams were). Now we risk falling back down further as these down teams make coaching changes and are likely to rebound from their disappointing years. I think Stoops blew his shot at making us a legitimate team (contend for the SEC East) and we might be headed back to near the cellar of the league.
 
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There's enough experience and talent to win 8 plus.

No, there isn't.

First of all, experience doesn't always equate to talent. And what talent there is will be offset quite often by the Stoops and Co. coaching gaffes.

Looking at the schedule...5-7. An upset somewhere will get them an exhibition game in December.
 
No, there isn't.

First of all, experience doesn't always equate to talent. And what talent there is will be offset quite often by the Stoops and Co. coaching gaffes.

Looking at the schedule...5-7. An upset somewhere will get them an exhibition game in December.
WRONG!
This season's team has more experience and depth than last season and UK was just a single play from a 8 win season. A better defense, even better running game and a QB that doesn't have two ligaments torn in his knee will power UK to a GREAT season. Some people need to stick to golf.
 
Doesn't everybody know that UK is the only SEC team that doesn't get better?

I don't think that is the issue. The
No, there isn't.

First of all, experience doesn't always equate to talent. And what talent there is will be offset quite often by the Stoops and Co. coaching gaffes.

Looking at the schedule...5-7. An upset somewhere will get them an exhibition game in December.

Stoops is getting the blame for the UF mess last year, and ultimately the buck stops at him, but there are 2 coaches who failed to get that corrected before it should be blamed on stoops.

As for as Stoops overall coaching, while UK has improved recruiting under stoops, UT and Carolina have both finished with higher ranked classes all 4 years for the sr class that just left. Yet UK beat both last year and has a nice little streat going against Carolina. MSST has recruited with 3-4 spots of UK, UF has recruited quite a bit higher than UK over those same 4 years, but was very fortunate to beat UK last year. If Stoops is going such a poor job coaching,how is he beating teams who have better talent, according to the rankings? UK;s class rankings over those 4 years would put UK between 10-12 in talent based on recruiting rankings, but UIK has been around 6-7 in SEC standings at seasons end the last 2 years. From those numbers it would seem UK's staff is doing a pretty good job.
 
Talent makes a world of difference. I'm sure Alabama and Georgia fans could point to a few close games and even a thimbleful of losses the past three years where the coaching was off. There were likely some wins in there that Mark Stoops could have registered IF he had the Alabama and Georgia talent.

Exactly, Saban isn't winning championships because he is outcoaching other coaches, he is winning because he is putting better players on the field. Recruiting rankings and the NFL draft back show that. When or if he stops recruiting top 5 classes he will stop winning all the time.
 
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I think that our coaching and talent are to the point that getting 6 wins on any given yr will be the norm. Next yr I don’t think is any different. 6 wins would be going par for the course.

Now, that being said with what we have returning from a 7 win team, I would bet the over but I wouldn’t be very confident. Like Grumpy said there are legitimate questions all over the SEC. The schedule is a little tougher. We still have questions about QB and run stop. And although I think that Stoops and company are good enough to get to 6 wins on any given yr, I don’t think he’s good enough to take us to new found glory yet.

My waaay to early prediction is 7-5. But we certainly could land anywhere between 6-9 wins.
 
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I think that our coaching and talent are to the point that getting 6 wins on any given yr will be the norm. Next yr I don’t think is any different. 6 wins would be going par for the course.

Now, that being said with what we have returning from a 7 win team, I would bet the over but I wouldn’t be very confident. Like Grumpy said there are legitimate questions all over the SEC. The schedule is a little tougher. We still have questions about QB and run stop. And although I think that Stoops and company are good enough to get to 6 wins on any given yr, I don’t think he’s good enough to take us to new found glory yet.

My waaay to early prediction is 7-5. But we certainly could land anywhere between 6-9 wins.

With all the returning starters UK has for 18, I don't think UK has to win games with QB play, They just can't afford to lose games because of QB play. That's why I think the QB will be whoever shows the best ball security. Now that probably won't get UK to Atlanta but on the flip side it probably won't lead to losing games you shouldn't lose either. Carolina looks at their game against us as the most important conference game of the year, we always get their best shot, but even after losing 4 straight to UK still look down on them. USC will be a tough game for UGA, at their place, probably night game and they are thinking win that game and they win the East. UGA on the other hand will have a young defense with likely more than 1 frosh getting alot of snaps. It's the scariest game on our schedule for me, I think UT struggles and another winless SEC season is possible, they are way down on talent because Butch ran so many kids off. We luck out getting UK late in the year, the young guys will have nearly a season of experience by then, AU game is at home, I feel pretty good about it. I think UK is in the top 3 toughest games we have in 18 and may be the toughest of the 3, Carolina gets us early in the year before the defense gets comfortable., if we played them 8th or 9th, wouldn't concern me too much.
 
With all the returning starters UK has for 18, I don't think UK has to win games with QB play, They just can't afford to lose games because of QB play. That's why I think the QB will be whoever shows the best ball security. Now that probably won't get UK to Atlanta but on the flip side it probably won't lead to losing games you shouldn't lose either. Carolina looks at their game against us as the most important conference game of the year, we always get their best shot, but even after losing 4 straight to UK still look down on them. USC will be a tough game for UGA, at their place, probably night game and they are thinking win that game and they win the East. UGA on the other hand will have a young defense with likely more than 1 frosh getting alot of snaps. It's the scariest game on our schedule for me, I think UT struggles and another winless SEC season is possible, they are way down on talent because Butch ran so many kids off. We luck out getting UK late in the year, the young guys will have nearly a season of experience by then, AU game is at home, I feel pretty good about it. I think UK is in the top 3 toughest games we have in 18 and may be the toughest of the 3, Carolina gets us early in the year before the defense gets comfortable., if we played them 8th or 9th, wouldn't concern me too much.


Agreed.

Somewhere deep inside of me, I have a feeling that we are building up for a break out season.......now whether that is this season or 3 yrs from now, I don't know. That being said, I tend to be a very even keeled and level headed.....so, you likely won't catch me predicting such.
 
^To clarify, a breakout season to me is about 9+ regular season wins.....maybe 8 wins if they are convincing and strong (especially if it leaves you with a feeling that future seasons will be bright)
 
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I think 18 may be that season, right or wrong I think UK is likely to take a step back in 19 from the `18 season for several reasons. I think UGA will be very good in 19 on both sides of the ball with alot of experience, Carolina will have another year of experience, UF, UT and MSU will all be in 2nd year of rebuild and new schemes while UK will be replacing almost the entire starting D and Snell will have an option to leave.
 
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Pretty good listing . . . . and it points out our key games for getting to a winning SEC slate: TAMU, Mizzou, Kentucky, Vandy, South Carolina, Tennessee and Florida are listed from 5 to 7 wins. We MUST make hay when the sun is shining against these opponents in 2018, to make a solid step forward.
Could not have said it better... You are spot on... It is now or never time...
 
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