UK-Albany Predictions: Interesting Stats

[bigbluelou]

(Mods, I am requesting that you please do not delete or merge with Old_Red's prediction thread. I put these metrics in that thread for reference, but very few people will see them. I thought this would be a good place for general discussion of the Rafters' game predictions for those who don't participate. Thanks.)

Below are current stats on our predictions for the Albany game. I rounded to whole numbers for ease of reading. Table below. Feel free to discuss.

1. Data points: 57 (so far)
2. Avg score: 90-59
3. Avg margin: 31
4. Min margin: 10
5. Max margin: 59
6. Avg turnovers - Albany: 18
7. Min score - UK: 71
8. Max score - UK: 123
9. Min score - Albany: 41
10. Max score - Albany: 75
11. Min turnovers - Albany: 13
12. Max turnovers - Albany: 37 (seriously!)
13. Full disclosure: My early prediction was 85-57 and 19 TO's.

Very normal distribution as one might expect.

 

[bigbluelou]

DAYUM.

Good stuff though. Love these kinds of things. Used to use KenPom's metrics when I would bet college basketball games.

Thanks! I love it too. Hope others enjoy it as well. I was a little surprised by the range on the min scores, max scores and margins but I guess I shouldn't be. Opinions are like...well, you know.

I still can't believe someone had 37 turnovers...that HAS to be a typo.

 

[Smashcat]

(Mods, I am requesting that you please do not delete or merge with Old_Red's prediction thread. I put these metrics in that thread for reference, but very few people will see them. I thought this would be a good place for general discussion of the Rafters' game predictions for those who don't participate. Thanks.)

Below are current stats on our predictions for the Albany game. I rounded to whole numbers for ease of reading. Table below. Feel free to discuss.

1. Data points: 57 (so far)
2. Avg score: 90-59
3. Avg margin: 31
4. Min margin: 10
5. Max margin: 59
6. Avg turnovers - Albany: 18
7. Min score - UK: 71
8. Max score - UK: 123
9. Min score - Albany: 41
10. Max score - Albany: 75
11. Min turnovers - Albany: 13
12. Max turnovers - Albany: 37 (seriously!)
13. Full disclosure: My early prediction was 85-57 and 19 TO's.

Very normal distribution as one might expect.

I hope Albany doesn't win 75-71.

 

[docholiday51]

very interesting stuff here,it would be fun to know what player has the best(lowest) deviation from the actual scores over the course of a season.

 

[lawrencekash]

Hope you do this often but please before I put my random guess in?

 

[bigbluelou]

Hope you do this often but please before I put my random guess in?

hahaha...might as well wait till the last minute.

 

[bigbluelou]

very interesting stuff here,it would be fun to know what player has the best(lowest) deviation from the actual scores over the course of a season.

That would be good to do...unfortunately there's no way I would have time to do it. My job is already getting 60 hard hours/week out of me. Wife has already called 911 several times thinking I was someone breaking in.

 

[bigbluelou]

I hope Albany doesn't win 75-71.

Ahhhh...I see what you did there. Nice.