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Tournament Byes

weatherbird

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Gold Member
Aug 2, 2006
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Unless I have missed something, and although there are other scenarios to get these, these are at least a little bit possible, not likely, but possible:

UK goes 3-0 in the last 3 games:
Missouri loses to either Vandy or Oklahoma (road games where Missouri is 3-4 in conference)
Texas A&M lose to Florida on the road or Auburn at home
Ole Miss lose to Florida on the road
Tennessee lose to Alabama (home) and Ole Miss (Road where UT is 4-4)
We get the double bye, there are other options for getting the double bye, but this is the most likely of all of them, even if going 3-0 for us isn't. Without the losses by these teams, we will only get the single bye

UK goes 2-1 in the last 3 games (path to the double bye would require Tennessee to lose to South Carolina at home):
UK gets the single bye unless there is some crazy scenario that I haven't found other than the <0.1% chance the right scenario happens to get the double bye.

UK goes 1-2 in the last 3 games:
Lots of scenarios, most of which will give us the single bye, but there are worlds where we would not. The top 5 seeds we couldn't catch, Texas A&M is unlikely(they would have to lose out, but still play Auburn and Florida, plus a road game at LSU), so that leaves 2 single bye seeds, and 5 teams with an ability to get them. Arkansas would have to win out (road games at Vandy and South Carolina) to be part of that, so if you assume they lose at least 1 more game, then here are the other 3 teams left:
Ole Miss would have to go 1-2 to be tied (games against Florida on the road and Tenessee at home, plus Oklahoma at home)
Vanderbilt would have to go 2-1 to be tied (Missouri and Arkansas at home, Georgia on the road)
Miss St would have to go 2-1 to be tied (home against Texas and LSU, road against Arkansas)

We would need to finish ahead or tied with at least 2 of them.

What is the most likely scenario in your mind.
 
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