The perception of talent since 2015

[shadyCAT]

Being void of UK basketball the last week, have turned to the NBA to see how our guys are doing. What struck me is the high-level performance of the players who have been a part of our teams SINCE 2015.

Everyone always points to 2015 as the most talented team of the Cal era, but when looking at professional production of members of that squad, can we really say that anymore? Sure it was the best collection of RECRUITS in the 21st century, but were they really that talented? Karl and Devin are the only guys on that team who are making major impacts in the NBA. WCS has been a nice rotational guy, and Trey Lyles is barely averaging 2 ppg and holding onto his roster spot. Nobody else on that team, who should be in their basketball primes, is even on a roster only 5 years later.

If look at the statistics of Kentucky guys currently in the NBA, it's predominantly guys SINCE the 2015 squad. The 2017, 2018 and 2019 teams specifically. It feels like there has been a talent deficiency since 2015, but can we really say that?

2017: Bam and Fox are max-contract stars. Monk just dropped 36 last night. Hell, even Mulder has carved out a roster spot with Golden State.
2018: Shai is averaging 20 ppg all-star, Hami 12 ppg, PJ 12ppg and 7rpg, Knox and Vanderbilt aren't starters (6 ppg and 6 rpg), but have their roles carved out. Wenyen and Nick are even hanging onto rosters spots.
2019: Nick and PJ already disclosed above. Add Herro (17ppg), Keldon (15ppg) and Quickley (13 ppg).

I think you can make a good argument that Cal's teams in 2017 - 2019 were actually deeper with professional talent than his first five years. Early years were TOP heavy (AD, Cousins, Wall, Randle, Karl) but most of the starters on Cal's early teams never really had any longevity in the NBA.

I don't really have much of a punchline here (LOL), just found it somewhat fascinating. This board, myself included, highlights talent gaps for our "underachievement" since 2015, but the production on the professional level doesn't back that up. Maybe we don't give Cal enough credit for his early years? Produced historic levels of success with top recruits but not necessarily rosters full of NBA-staying power levels of talent. Conversely, the last three (tournament) years were major letdowns given how much talent was on the roster.

I just can't make sense of any of it. Go Cats!

 

[IrishMike409]

Being void of UK basketball the last week, have turned to the NBA to see how our guys are doing. What struck me is the high-level performance of the players who have been a part of our teams SINCE 2015.

Everyone always points to 2015 as the most talented team of the Cal era, but when looking at professional production of members of that squad, can we really say that anymore? Sure it was the best collection of RECRUITS in the 21st century, but were they really that talented? Karl and Devin are the only guys on that team who are making major impacts in the NBA. WCS has been a nice rotational guy, and Trey Lyles is barely averaging 2 ppg and holding onto his roster spot. Nobody else on that team, who should be in their basketball primes, is even on a roster only 5 years later.

If look at the statistics of Kentucky guys currently in the NBA, it's predominantly guys SINCE the 2015 squad. The 2017, 2018 and 2019 teams specifically. It feels like there has been a talent deficiency since 2015, but can we really say that?

2017: Bam and Fox are max-contract stars. Monk just dropped 36 last night. Hell, even Mulder has carved out a roster spot with Golden State.
2018: Shai is averaging 20 ppg all-star, Hami 12 ppg, PJ 12ppg and 7rpg, Knox and Vanderbilt aren't starters (6 ppg and 6 rpg), but have their roles carved out. Wenyen and Nick are even hanging onto rosters spots.
2019: Nick and PJ already disclosed above. Add Herro (17ppg), Keldon (15ppg) and Quickley (13 ppg).

I think you can make a good argument that Cal's teams in 2017 - 2019 were actually deeper with professional talent than his first five years. Early years were TOP heavy (AD, Cousins, Wall, Randle, Karl) but most of the starters on Cal's early teams never really had any longevity in the NBA.

I don't really have much of a punchline here (LOL), just found it somewhat fascinating. This board, myself included, highlights talent gaps for our "underachievement" since 2015, but the production on the professional level doesn't back that up. Maybe we don't give Cal enough credit for his early years? Produced historic levels of success with top recruits but not necessarily rosters full of NBA-staying power levels of talent. Conversely, the last three (tournament) years were major letdowns given how much talent was on the roster.

I just can't make sense of any of it. Go Cats!

Relying on these guys at 18 years to basically play perfectly 3 weekends in a row. Really really difficult to do.

 

[Marleydogg]

Good post. Worth thinking about. Does 3-4 rotational NBA guys, ala 17,19, work better, or 1 or2 NBA superstar with marginal NBA talent ala 12,15 perform better in college?

 

[StubbornPenny]

You forgot Maxey who’s had a few big games

 

[jcbu246]

Makes me upset honestly, because Quickley, PJ, and other previous returners make the perfect argument for why players need to stay. If next year's class finishes with our 5 stars returning then it will be a very good year

 

[Cefiro]

Good post. Worth thinking about. Does 3-4 rotational NBA guys, ala 17,19, work better, or 1 or2 NBA superstar with marginal NBA talent ala 12,15 perform better in college?

Well, we won it in 2012 and were the best teams in 10 and 15 so give me the 1 or 2 superstars.

 

[Sawnee Cat]

Seeing the facts in writing on this message board reminds me once again just how much OAD sucks.

 

[STL_Cat]

I guess it goes to show you that you can put together a really good college basketball team with good talent, experience, and chemistry. A revolving door isn’t the answer.

 

[FrankUnderwood]

Being void of UK basketball the last week, have turned to the NBA to see how our guys are doing. What struck me is the high-level performance of the players who have been a part of our teams SINCE 2015.

Everyone always points to 2015 as the most talented team of the Cal era, but when looking at professional production of members of that squad, can we really say that anymore? Sure it was the best collection of RECRUITS in the 21st century, but were they really that talented? Karl and Devin are the only guys on that team who are making major impacts in the NBA. WCS has been a nice rotational guy, and Trey Lyles is barely averaging 2 ppg and holding onto his roster spot. Nobody else on that team, who should be in their basketball primes, is even on a roster only 5 years later.

If look at the statistics of Kentucky guys currently in the NBA, it's predominantly guys SINCE the 2015 squad. The 2017, 2018 and 2019 teams specifically. It feels like there has been a talent deficiency since 2015, but can we really say that?

2017: Bam and Fox are max-contract stars. Monk just dropped 36 last night. Hell, even Mulder has carved out a roster spot with Golden State.
2018: Shai is averaging 20 ppg all-star, Hami 12 ppg, PJ 12ppg and 7rpg, Knox and Vanderbilt aren't starters (6 ppg and 6 rpg), but have their roles carved out. Wenyen and Nick are even hanging onto rosters spots.
2019: Nick and PJ already disclosed above. Add Herro (17ppg), Keldon (15ppg) and Quickley (13 ppg).

I think you can make a good argument that Cal's teams in 2017 - 2019 were actually deeper with professional talent than his first five years. Early years were TOP heavy (AD, Cousins, Wall, Randle, Karl) but most of the starters on Cal's early teams never really had any longevity in the NBA.

I don't really have much of a punchline here (LOL), just found it somewhat fascinating. This board, myself included, highlights talent gaps for our "underachievement" since 2015, but the production on the professional level doesn't back that up. Maybe we don't give Cal enough credit for his early years? Produced historic levels of success with top recruits but not necessarily rosters full of NBA-staying power levels of talent. Conversely, the last three (tournament) years were major letdowns given how much talent was on the roster.

I just can't make sense of any of it. Go Cats!

the problem isn’t that they’re lacking talent. Of course many will be good after a few years of NBA training, coaching and millions in investment. The issue is relying on ALL freshman all season long and 6 games in a row.

 

[AGEE11]

2017 always bugs me. We were the best team in the Nation and were rolling in March.

I still can't stand the site of the rooferee

 

[jcbu246]

I hope this season moves us away from having to rely on all-freshman again, this has been painful 😑

 

[Cefiro]

Seeing the facts in writing on this message board reminds me once again just how much OAD sucks.

OAD does work, just not the way Cal is recruiting right now. If you’re getting OADs you need the elite of the elite who are sure fire top picks. The problem is we’re not getting those guys anymore.

 

[jcbu246]

OAD does work, just not the way Cal is recruiting right now. If you’re getting OADs you need the elite of the elite who are sure fire top picks. The problem is we’re not getting those guys anymore.

I hate OAD. I want to already know a player

 

[H00SIER-Cat]

Really good points OP.

But we've learned this on rafters the last few weeks:

1. Cal is woke
2. OAD is broke
3. lifetime contracts a joke.

/s

 

[Creed Bratton]

2017 always bugs me. We were the best team in the Nation and were rolling in March.

I still can't stand the site of the rooferee

I am not a violent person but if I ever ran into that douche on the street I would probably need bail money.

 

[Creed Bratton]

OAD does work, just not the way Cal is recruiting right now. If you’re getting OADs you need the elite of the elite who are sure fire top picks. The problem is we’re not getting those guys anymore.

and you need some seasoned guys who have been on your team 2,3 or 4 years as well. We haven't been getting the elite guys and unable to keep good to great role players around either. Definitely been a worst case scenario.

 

[jcbu246]

and you need some seasoned guys who have been on your team 2,3 or 4 years as well. We haven't been getting the elite guys and unable to keep good to great role players around either. Definitely been a worst case scenario.

Cal has to be looking at that nonconference schedule next year. Hopefully he gets both or one of the 2 'stars' this year to return

 

[BigBlueFanGA]

OAD does work, just not the way Cal is recruiting right now. If you’re getting OADs you need the elite of the elite who are sure fire top picks. The problem is we’re not getting those guys anymore.

No, OAD does not work, it never has.

 

[shadyCAT]

I've analyzed this every way I can. We've had superstars, top draft picks, returning 5 stars, 4 stars, Kentucky kids and seniors. With 2012 being the (wonderful) outlier, my only conclusion is that no matter what the roster makeup or Seed is, the NCAA tournament under Cal is going to be a gut wrenching thrill ride. I hate it as much as I love it. It giveth, it taketh. This season is so frustrating because history under Cal shows, get into the dance and we have a chance. Missing the entire tournament is heartbreaking, because in most cases we are going to get to the final minute of every game with a chance to win - and then you just never know what could happen! Not having that chance just freaking sucks.

 

[JonathanW]

OAD does work, just not the way Cal is recruiting right now. If you’re getting OADs you need the elite of the elite who are sure fire top picks. The problem is we’re not getting those guys anymore.

This ^ I can agree with.
And I am fine with the 2nd tier guys, if you have enough of them, and IF they REALIZE they are 2nd TIER guys. Don't come in 2nd tier thinking you are top, don't come in 4th tier thinking you are 2nd tier.

IMO, the only Cal recruits who should have expected to be OAD were Wall, Cousins, Davis, Noel, Randall, Bam, Fox, Skal (lol, turns out he wasn't close).
Maybe I forgot a couple.
Then guys like Murray, Monk, Knight, Jones, MKG, certainly had good reason to hope they were.
The twins had to know they were slow, PJ had to know he was short, Diallo had to know he couldn't shoot. Not things they can't overcome, but certainly obstacles to be OAD.

 

[the nail at the foul line]

There is no direct correlation between a successful college basketball team and success in the NBA. There is no direct correlation between success in the NBA and being on a successful college basketball team.

 

[JwUKFan11]

People that say OAD “doesn’t work” are really just stupid. There isn’t a system out there that you can go to that “just works” every year. We have seen teams win with a single draft pick, we have seen teams win with multiple draft picks, and even a combination. There isn’t a do this and you are guaranteed to be more likely to win a title strategy.

 

[gwjenning]

As long as they are good in the NBA is all that matters right?
June is what matters!

 

[jwphelps]

Being void of UK basketball the last week, have turned to the NBA to see how our guys are doing. What struck me is the high-level performance of the players who have been a part of our teams SINCE 2015.

Everyone always points to 2015 as the most talented team of the Cal era, but when looking at professional production of members of that squad, can we really say that anymore? Sure it was the best collection of RECRUITS in the 21st century, but were they really that talented? Karl and Devin are the only guys on that team who are making major impacts in the NBA. WCS has been a nice rotational guy, and Trey Lyles is barely averaging 2 ppg and holding onto his roster spot. Nobody else on that team, who should be in their basketball primes, is even on a roster only 5 years later.

If look at the statistics of Kentucky guys currently in the NBA, it's predominantly guys SINCE the 2015 squad. The 2017, 2018 and 2019 teams specifically. It feels like there has been a talent deficiency since 2015, but can we really say that?

2017: Bam and Fox are max-contract stars. Monk just dropped 36 last night. Hell, even Mulder has carved out a roster spot with Golden State.
2018: Shai is averaging 20 ppg all-star, Hami 12 ppg, PJ 12ppg and 7rpg, Knox and Vanderbilt aren't starters (6 ppg and 6 rpg), but have their roles carved out. Wenyen and Nick are even hanging onto rosters spots.
2019: Nick and PJ already disclosed above. Add Herro (17ppg), Keldon (15ppg) and Quickley (13 ppg).

I think you can make a good argument that Cal's teams in 2017 - 2019 were actually deeper with professional talent than his first five years. Early years were TOP heavy (AD, Cousins, Wall, Randle, Karl) but most of the starters on Cal's early teams never really had any longevity in the NBA.

I don't really have much of a punchline here (LOL), just found it somewhat fascinating. This board, myself included, highlights talent gaps for our "underachievement" since 2015, but the production on the professional level doesn't back that up. Maybe we don't give Cal enough credit for his early years? Produced historic levels of success with top recruits but not necessarily rosters full of NBA-staying power levels of talent. Conversely, the last three (tournament) years were major letdowns given how much talent was on the roster.

I just can't make sense of any of it. Go Cats!

But have you noticed that some of these UK guys who are flourishing were not the focal point of Cal's UK teams. And the players that were the focal point on most cases are not doing as well??????

 

[SmedMoley]

People that say OAD “doesn’t work” are really just stupid. There isn’t a system out there that you can go to that “just works” every year. We have seen teams win with a single draft pick, we have seen teams win with multiple draft picks, and even a combination. There isn’t a do this and you are guaranteed to be more likely to win a title strategy.

There is no hard and fast formula for winning titles. There are some that have a greater success rate than others. Strict OAD sure isn't that system. Truth is, there have been a few freshman lead teams that have won it, and they relied heavily on upperclassmen in the rotation. Us in 2012, Duke in 2015. The closest a mostly freshman team got was us in 2014. Now, you can look at teams with a few sure-fire NBA ready upperclassmen and a few solid/elite underclassmen seem to do very well (UNC, Villanova, Virginia, Louisville in 2013, Duke in 2010). Yeah, I'd say that formula has had the most success. It's just very difficult to get that kind of talented upperclassmen, these days.

 

[St.PatterSoN-54-]

Many of the vocal detractors also assume that Cal should just be able to point to the pile of studs and select the ones he wants. There are 100 other hyenas out there who would sell their mother's kidney to land a star recruit.

 

[shadyCAT]

But have you noticed that some of these UK guys who are flourishing were not the focal point of Cal's UK teams. And the players that were the focal point on most cases are not doing as well??????

Devin Booker is the most obvious example of this. Tough spot for Cal with that one. Booker was obviously the more talented player, but Aaron Harrison had a proven track record of major success in the NCAA Tournament. If he benches Aaron for Devin and we still lose, it would have been unforgiveable.

However, since 2015, I'd say most of the guys flourishing in the NBA now were most definitely focal points of their respective teams at Kentucky. Can debate whether or not Cal put them in the best offensive system to maximize their offense efficiencies, but they were all the leading minute earners on their respective teams...except Quickley in 2019.

Have always wondered what that team might have looked like if we started Quick that whole season and built his confidence (in the same way Cal is trying to do with Askew now). Hagans was such a shooting liability and while his off the ball defense was terrific, he struggled keeping quick guards in front of him. Jarred Harper won that Elite Eight game by dominating his matchup with Hagans (especially late in the game and OT). Seeing IQ flourish now, wonder if that season would have been any different if IQ was groomed all season for that very moment.

 

[ABlockalypseBrow]

Many of the vocal detractors also assume that Cal should just be able to point to the pile of studs and select the ones he wants. There are 100 other hyenas out there who would sell their mother's kidney to land a star recruit.

What happened to “We eat first”? Guess Cal’s gone from a lion to another hyena.

 

[ABlockalypseBrow]

OP, a couple points. First you’re looking at roster spots but it’s a lot easier to stay on a roster as a young guy than a veteran because your salary is so much smaller the team is basically paying pennies for potential.

Second, those top heavy recruiting classes is exactly what people point to Cal missing on since 2015. We haven’t had a top 5 draft pick except Fox and no wonder that was our only year we played like contenders in March.

 

[KyFaninNC]

For me. I don’t care what they do in the NBA. I want college players. I do not follow the NBA. I follow UK and college basketball. Bringing in a bunch of potential NBA prospects is what’s wrong with UK right now.

 

[St.PatterSoN-54-]

What happened to “We eat first”? Guess Cal’s gone from a lion to another hyena.

Arizona and LSU and UL and Duke and others blatantly buying players HAPPENED. Would you have UK also do that and get dragged through the mud for it? I honestly think that many on this board would be fine with it.

 

[St.PatterSoN-54-]

For me. I don’t care what they do in the NBA. I want college players. I do not follow the NBA. I follow UK and college basketball. Bringing in a bunch of potential NBA prospects is what’s wrong with UK right now.

Please prepare a list of recruits that are good enough to play for UK, but that are not good enough to immediately go one and done. I’m sure the coaching staff would appreciate your input.

 

[shadyCAT]

OP, a couple points. First you’re looking at roster spots but it’s a lot easier to stay on a roster as a young guy than a veteran because your salary is so much smaller the team is basically paying pennies for potential.

Second, those top heavy recruiting classes is exactly what people point to Cal missing on since 2015. We haven’t had a top 5 draft pick except Fox and no wonder that was our only year we played like contenders in March.

Good points, and I agree to an extent! But I'd be curious to see how many of the key early year Cal guys ever scored at the level some of the recent guys have in the NBA. Lamb, Jones, Teague, Harrisons, Young, Dakari, Marcus Lee, Archie, Ulis, Poythress, etc. Did those guys ever average double figures? Could be wrong, just seems like the recent (young) Cal guys are actually producing at levels that would suggest they will stick. Knight and MKG are the only early Cal guys I can think of that actually produced at a decent level in the NBA at some point, but have since dropped off.

I have also long since argued that the Top 5 guys are the missing ingredient the last few years. Found it hard to argue against it. However, than I started looking at HALF of the Cal teams who actually did make the Final Four.

2011: No top 5 pick, and Knight was the only one to have any semblance of an NBA career.
2014: No top 5 pick, and Randle/WCS were the only players to have any semblance of an NBA career.

On the surface it feels like Cal made two Final Fours will less talented teams (2011 and 2014) than he has had recently (2017, 2018 and 2019). So in other words, I don't think our talent levels have dipped necessarily. We have just been losing the close games in March that we were winning back in the early Cal years. And I'm not really sure why...

 

[ABlockalypseBrow]

Arizona and LSU and UL and Duke and others blatantly buying players HAPPENED. Would you have UK also do that and get dragged through the mud for it? I honestly think that many on this board would be fine with it.

Was no one really buying players before? Honestly what really happened is UK went from Nike’s favored school to send recruits, to now Coach K eats their firsts and we get leftovers pretty please. It’s up to Cal to mend that relationship with Nike or find another way. Rumor had it they were upset we skipped the Nike tournament a few years ago, seems like Cal thought he was doing it all on his own and is too proud to admit he had help.

Nike cheats in ways that are absurdly 100% transparent, legal and within NCAA rules, like paying parents to run AAU programs. You act like us and Cal weren’t being “dragged through the mud” by the media already, so if it’s within rules and no punishments apply who cares what east coast haters say?

 

[St.PatterSoN-54-]

Was no one really buying players before? Honestly what really happened is UK went from Nike’s favored school to send recruits, to now Coach K eats their firsts and we get leftovers pretty please. It’s up to Cal to mend that relationship with Nike or find another way. Rumor had it they were upset we skipped the Nike tournament a few years ago, seems like Cal thought he was doing it all on his own and is too proud to admit he had help.

Nike cheats in ways that are absurdly 100% transparent, legal and within NCAA rules, like paying parents to run AAU programs. You act like us and Cal weren’t being “dragged through the mud” by the media already, so if it’s within rules and no punishments apply who cares what east coast haters say?

You have a good point about Nike. Not playing in their tournament was a mistake.

Still, you didn’t answer the bigger question. I’ll make it easier. To get Zion, would you have been willing to have it known by EVERYONE that either you or someone close to the program gave his family a mansion? Or would you be willing to have been caught on witetap arranging payments to get another top level recruits? Or to have one of our assistants go to prison for it? I’m not.

 

[ABlockalypseBrow]

Good points, and I agree to an extent! But I'd be curious to see how many of the key early year Cal guys ever scored at the level some of the recent guys have in the NBA. Lamb, Jones, Teague, Harrisons, Young, Dakari, Marcus Lee, Archie, Ulis, Poythress, etc. Did those guys ever average double figures? Could be wrong, just seems like the recent (young) Cal guys are actually producing at levels that would suggest they will stick. Knight and MKG are the only early Cal guys I can think of that actually produced at a decent level in the NBA at some point, but have since dropped off.

I have also long since argued that the Top 5 guys are the missing ingredient the last few years. Found it hard to argue against it. However, than I started looking at HALF of the Cal teams who actually did make the Final Four.

2011: No top 5 pick, and Knight was the only one to have any semblance of an NBA career.
2014: No top 5 pick, and Randle/WCS were the only players to have any semblance of an NBA career.

On the surface it feels like Cal made two Final Fours will less talented teams (2011 and 2014) than he has had recently (2017, 2018 and 2019). So in other words, I don't think our talent levels have dipped necessarily. We have just been losing the close games in March that we were winning back in the early Cal years. And I'm not really sure why...

Your examples point to our other issues. Namely shooting. We had some great and clutch shooting in 2011 from Lamb and Knight to even a usual non-shooter like Liggins hitting a huge one. Obviously in 2014 Aaron became super clutch on those close out shots.

Our teams have just not made those types of shots much since then in the tournament. Herro shot like 13% from 3, Murray shot badly in 2016 in the 2 games. 2017 is the exception and unsurprisingly our sole contender. Other years we just didn’t have any elite shooters to speak of at all.

It just seems like Calipari’s offense has been figured out plus he has failed to emphasize shooters in his system or recruiting. We have our best shooter in this year’s team being called out in every post-game press conference like he’s the only one making mistakes on defense. People say we can’t win in March without BJ/Clarke but history says we need someone to make shots like only Allen or Mintz do to make a final four.

 

[ABlockalypseBrow]

You have a good point about Nike. Not playing in their tournament was a mistake.

Still, you didn’t answer the bigger question. I’ll make it easier. To get Zion, would you have been willing to have it known by EVERYONE that either you or someone close to the program gave his family a mansion? Or would you be willing to have been caught on witetap arranging payments to get another top level recruits? Or to have one of our assistants go to prison for it? I’m not.

The thing is with Zion is it’s not “known” they were “given” a mansion. As far as I know they rented it and paid for it with Nike AAU money. That’s shady and 100% allowed, but so was Cal hiring players family at Memphis and the like.

It’s absurd to act like we have to hand recruits bags of cash to win, there’s no proof Coach K and his staff are having to do that. Should the NCAA close the loopholes Puke is exploiting? Sure! But until then we’re playing with one hand behind our back for zero reason and by the way, the media still considers UK dirtier than Puke so we’ve gained nada.

 

[St.PatterSoN-54-]

The thing is with Zion is it’s not “known” they were “given” a mansion. As far as I know they rented it and paid for it with Nike AAU money. That’s shady and 100% allowed, but so was Cal hiring players family at Memphis and the like.

It’s absurd to act like we have to hand recruits bags of cash to win, Coach K and his staff are not doing that. Should the NCAA close the loopholes Puke is exploiting? Sure! But until then we’re playing with one hand behind our back for zero reason and by the way, the media still considers UK dirtier than Puke so we’ve gained nada.

We can agree to disagree on Duke. Are you willing for UK to be lumped in with LSU and Arizona? I just want to know how far down this rabbit hole you're willing to go.

 

[willievic]

Good post. Worth thinking about. Does 3-4 rotational NBA guys, ala 17,19, work better, or 1 or2 NBA superstar with marginal NBA talent ala 12,15 perform better in college?

Ask the Virginia and Villanova coaches, or even the two coaches at U Conn, who beat us in the Tournament. Oates at Alabama might have an opinion.

OLD STOLL FIELD GUY!

 

[wcc31]

Good points, and I agree to an extent! But I'd be curious to see how many of the key early year Cal guys ever scored at the level some of the recent guys have in the NBA. Lamb, Jones, Teague, Harrisons, Young, Dakari, Marcus Lee, Archie, Ulis, Poythress, etc. Did those guys ever average double figures? Could be wrong, just seems like the recent (young) Cal guys are actually producing at levels that would suggest they will stick. Knight and MKG are the only early Cal guys I can think of that actually produced at a decent level in the NBA at some point, but have since dropped off.

I have also long since argued that the Top 5 guys are the missing ingredient the last few years. Found it hard to argue against it. However, than I started looking at HALF of the Cal teams who actually did make the Final Four.

2011: No top 5 pick, and Knight was the only one to have any semblance of an NBA career.
2014: No top 5 pick, and Randle/WCS were the only players to have any semblance of an NBA career.

On the surface it feels like Cal made two Final Fours will less talented teams (2011 and 2014) than he has had recently (2017, 2018 and 2019). So in other words, I don't think our talent levels have dipped necessarily. We have just been losing the close games in March that we were winning back in the early Cal years. And I'm not really sure why...

Yep- shots went our way in ‘11 and ‘14, and against us in ‘15, ‘17, ‘18 and ‘19.