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The East in 20?!?

The-Hack

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Oct 1, 2016
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I do not see Vandy, Mizzou or USCe having any shot at an East title mid way through the season.

Four teams will have a shot, and given Georgia’s consistent recruiting in the Top 3 the last few years, they have to be favored. Georgia gets a tough draw from the West, against Bama in Tuscaloosa in ‘20. They get their permanent West opponent, Auburn, at home. They have to travel to Lexington, and Jacksonville for the game most Dawg fans consider a road game, and get UT at home. Given that they travel to Lexington, “to” Jacksonville, and to Tuscaloosa, theirs might be the toughest slate in the East. If they lose to Bama, and stumble in either Lexington or Jacksonville, the door will open for others. And while recruiting has been on an elite level, Georgia has had some real “head-scratchers” under Smart, losing at home to USCe being the biggest, from last season.

Georgia is an enigma to me. They have had frequent spells of elite recruiting, had perhaps the greatest football player of all time in Herschel Walker, have dominated Kentucky in the total series, but have a mediocre Natty count compared to UT and Florida (and Bama, LSU, and Auburn). And while Florida and UT racked up ridiculous winning steaks against Kentucky from the 80’s until recently, many games being blowouts, Kentucky managed to beat Georgia a smattering of times during those 30 plus years, and played pretty competitively in most of the losses.

The heat will be on Smart to convert several years of ridiculously successful recruiting into a run at a Natty this season, or rational folk will question whether it can be done in Athens, with Smart and his staff.

Most Cat fans (and many others in the SEC) would object to my inclusion of UT in the hunt for the East, but they finished one of the more bizarre seasons in NCAA history last year very impressively. Edging Kentucky in Lexington and IU in their bowl game, and improving their poor play against USCe and Vandy, allowed them to rescue a season that was marred by early home losses to Georgia State and BYU, finishing 5-3 in conference. One of those SEC losses was a very competitive road loss at Bama.

UT has a stingy defense, but lost a lot of production at WR, and did not demonstrate an ability to run the ball with the power that Georgia and UK have mustered the last few seasons (and in UGA’s case, the last few decades). I think UT must rely more upon the run this season, given their WR losses.

UT gets Bama, Florida, and Kentucky at home and Georgia on the road. If they can win 2/3 of their toughest home games, they will be in the running for the East late into the season.

Florida must be considered the second likeliest to win the East, because they have only one potentially daunting true road game, at UT. Otherwise, they play LSU, and Kentucky in Gainesville, and Georgia in Jacksonville. Their other West opponent is Ole Miss on the road.

Their return of Trask is worrisome. I rewatched our loss, and he was a machine after their starter went down last year. But should TTW re-emerge, he might just re-create perhaps his best total game performance from two years ago.

Our early game in Gainesville will set the table for the presumptive challenger to Georgia for the East, but even a win might leave UK fans wishing our second West draw was to Ole Miss rather than to Auburn. Given that we travel to Gainesville and UF gets a rebuilding LSU at home, and a pillow cushion against Lane Kiffin’s first bite in ‘20, compared to our road trip to the Plains, Florida has the clear scheduling advantage. Obviously, the keys to our hopes are beating them, and hoping that LSU didn’t lose all their mojo to their record setting NFL draft.

For Kentucky to have a good shot at the East in 2020, they must be Road Warriors. Three of our presumably toughest games will be on the road: at UF, UT, and Auburn. I doubt our late season tilt against UGA at home could have the same “winner-take-all” implications as in 2018, unless we take at least two-out-of-three against these teams (and win at Mizzou). Fortunately, since 2016, Kentucky has shown it’s greatest sustained competitiveness on the road since the Bear Bryant era, going 9-10, with a couple of lost opportunities last year at State and USCe due to QB injuries. I don’t think 5-3 can win the East in 2020, but 6-2 could do it, if we win key heads-up matches, and if Bama and LSU do us favors in sweeping their Eastern opponents, and Auburn splits (losing to us at home and beating Georgia on the road).

My prediction on final Eastern standings:
(1) Georgia;
(2) Florida;
(3) Kentucky;
(4) UT;
(5) USCe;
(6) Vandy;
(7) Mizzou.

I think UK goes 5-3 in conference, 9-3, overall, and gets it’s second Ten win season in three years. I’d love to expect more, but with a road trip to Auburn (instead of a soft opponent like Arky or Ole Miss), and with road trips to UT and UF, our schedule does not compare favorably to Georgia’s and UF’s.
 
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I do not see Vandy, Mizzou or USCe having any shot at an East title mid way through the season.

Four teams will have a shot, and given Georgia’s consistent recruiting in the Top 3 the last few years, they have to be favored. Georgia gets a tough draw from the West, against Bama in Tuscaloosa in ‘20. They get their permanent West opponent, Auburn, at home. They have to travel to Lexington, and Jacksonville for the game most Dawg fans consider a road game, and get UT at home. Given that they travel to Lexington, “to” Jacksonville, and to Tuscaloosa, theirs might be the toughest slate in the East. If they lose to Bama, and stumble in either Lexington or Jacksonville, the door will open for others. And while recruiting has been on an elite level, Georgia has had some real “head-scratchers” under Smart, losing at home to USCe being the biggest, from last season.

Georgia is an enigma to me. They have had frequent spells of elite recruiting, had perhaps the greatest football player of all time in Herschel Walker, have dominated Kentucky in the total series, but have a mediocre Natty count compared to UT and Florida (and Bama, LSU, and Auburn). And while Florida and UT racked up ridiculous winning steaks against Kentucky from the 80’s until recently, many games being blowouts, Kentucky managed to beat Georgia a smattering of times during those 30 plus years, and played pretty competitively in most of the losses.

The heat will be on Smart to convert several years of ridiculously successful recruiting into a run at a Natty this season, or rational folk will question whether it can be done in Athens, with Smart and his staff.

Most Cat fans (and many others in the SEC) would object to my inclusion of UT in the hunt for the East, but they finished one of the more bizarre seasons in NCAA history last year very impressively. Edging Kentucky in Lexington and IU in their bowl game, and improving their poor play against USCe and Vandy, allowed them to rescue a season that was marred by early home losses to Georgia State and BYU, finishing 5-3 in conference. One of those SEC losses was a very competitive road loss at Bama.

UT has a stingy defense, but lost a lot of production at WR, and did not demonstrate an ability to run the ball with the power that Georgia and UK have mustered the last few seasons (and in UGA’s case, the last few decades). I think UT must rely more upon the run this season, given their WR losses.

UT gets Bama, Florida, and Kentucky at home and Georgia on the road. If they can win 2/3 of their toughest home games, they will be in the running for the East late into the season.

Florida must be considered the second likeliest to win the East, because they have only one potentially daunting true road game, at UT. Otherwise, they play LSU, and Kentucky in Gainesville, and Georgia in Jacksonville. Their other West opponent is Ole Miss on the road.

Their return of Trask is worrisome. I rewatched our loss, and he was a machine after their starter went down last year. But should TTW re-emerge, he might just re-create perhaps his best total game performance from two years ago.

Our early game in Gainesville will set the table for the presumptive challenger to Georgia for the East, but might leave UK fans wishing our second West draw was to Ole Miss rather than to Auburn. Given that we travel to Gainesville and UF gets a rebuilding LSU at home, and a pillow cushion against Lane Kiffin’s first bite in ‘20, compared to our road trip to the Plains, Florida has the clear scheduling advantage. Obviously, the keys to our hopes are beating them, and hoping that LSU didn’t lose their mojo to their record setting NFL draft.

[to be continued by edit].

I wouldn't wish a pox on anyone (but I am getting closer) but if I ever did Thug U would be at the top of the list.

And by the way, if you are going to say any nice things about them then I suggest you just retire early and let this "edit" guy "continue" the post, whoever he is.
 
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Our record against UK has been pretty good - its 26-3 the last 29 years and 10 straight. Stoopes is 0-7 vs the Bulldogs, with losses by 42, 32, 24, 3, 29, 17 and 21.

We lost a national title on the last play in 2017 - we know Smart can do it. We have 3 straight 11-1 seasons, are 17-1 against the East in that span. Smart has won 3 straight East titles, an SEC title, a CFB playoff game in the Rose Bowl and also a Sugar Bowl. Even in a moderately disappointing year last year we finished in the top five and were 4-1 vs teams in the top 15.

All of that it is factual matter. Not Tenn fan “we are still elite” gibberish, no spin, just facts. Next year is a new year however and the past doesnt mean anything.
 
No way I can attempt to make any predictions since I'm not sure what we have right now much less our opponents.

What does stand out to me however is that Georgia's offense was not very good last year and they will now be putting the pieces together with the Wake Transfer at QB. Not sure yet how that goes but if they struggle offensively again than we could have a competitive race in the East with at least 3 times. The Dawg defense should be among the elite nationally.

Kentucky is in a position to make a run this year. They must win on the road against the Vols and Gators but they can afford a loss on The Plains. However none of that will matter unless we can beat the Dawgs. The road to Catlanta runs through Athens, fortunately Athens is temporarily moved to Lexington this year.
 
Our record against UK has been pretty good - its 26-3 the last 29 years and 10 straight. Stoopes is 0-7 vs the Bulldogs, with losses by 42, 32, 24, 3, 29, 17 and 21.

We lost a national title on the last play in 2017 - we know Smart can do it. We have 3 straight 11-1 seasons, are 17-1 against the East in that span. Smart has won 3 straight East titles, an SEC title, a CFB playoff game in the Rose Bowl and also a Sugar Bowl. Even in a moderately disappointing year last year we finished in the top five and were 4-1 vs teams in the top 15.

All of that it is factual matter. Not Tenn fan “we are still elite” gibberish, no spin, just facts. Next year is a new year however and the past doesnt mean anything.
I don't think anyone on here would argue with Georgia being the team to beat in east. Recruiting has just been way better than everyone else. Georgia should have beaten UK every year, talent level has never been close.
 
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I do not see Vandy, Mizzou or USCe having any shot at an East title mid way through the season.

Four teams will have a shot, and given Georgia’s consistent recruiting in the Top 3 the last few years, they have to be favored. Georgia gets a tough draw from the West, against Bama in Tuscaloosa in ‘20. They get their permanent West opponent, Auburn, at home. They have to travel to Lexington, and Jacksonville for the game most Dawg fans consider a road game, and get UT at home. Given that they travel to Lexington, “to” Jacksonville, and to Tuscaloosa, theirs might be the toughest slate in the East. If they lose to Bama, and stumble in either Lexington or Jacksonville, the door will open for others. And while recruiting has been on an elite level, Georgia has had some real “head-scratchers” under Smart, losing at home to USCe being the biggest, from last season.

Georgia is an enigma to me. They have had frequent spells of elite recruiting, had perhaps the greatest football player of all time in Herschel Walker, have dominated Kentucky in the total series, but have a mediocre Natty count compared to UT and Florida (and Bama, LSU, and Auburn). And while Florida and UT racked up ridiculous winning steaks against Kentucky from the 80’s until recently, many games being blowouts, Kentucky managed to beat Georgia a smattering of times during those 30 plus years, and played pretty competitively in most of the losses.

The heat will be on Smart to convert several years of ridiculously successful recruiting into a run at a Natty this season, or rational folk will question whether it can be done in Athens, with Smart and his staff.

Most Cat fans (and many others in the SEC) would object to my inclusion of UT in the hunt for the East, but they finished one of the more bizarre seasons in NCAA history last year very impressively. Edging Kentucky in Lexington and IU in their bowl game, and improving their poor play against USCe and Vandy, allowed them to rescue a season that was marred by early home losses to Georgia State and BYU, finishing 5-3 in conference. One of those SEC losses was a very competitive road loss at Bama.

UT has a stingy defense, but lost a lot of production at WR, and did not demonstrate an ability to run the ball with the power that Georgia and UK have mustered the last few seasons (and in UGA’s case, the last few decades). I think UT must rely more upon the run this season, given their WR losses.

UT gets Bama, Florida, and Kentucky at home and Georgia on the road. If they can win 2/3 of their toughest home games, they will be in the running for the East late into the season.

Florida must be considered the second likeliest to win the East, because they have only one potentially daunting true road game, at UT. Otherwise, they play LSU, and Kentucky in Gainesville, and Georgia in Jacksonville. Their other West opponent is Ole Miss on the road.

Their return of Trask is worrisome. I rewatched our loss, and he was a machine after their starter went down last year. But should TTW re-emerge, he might just re-create perhaps his best total game performance from two years ago.

Our early game in Gainesville will set the table for the presumptive challenger to Georgia for the East, but even a win might leave UK fans wishing our second West draw was to Ole Miss rather than to Auburn. Given that we travel to Gainesville and UF gets a rebuilding LSU at home, and a pillow cushion against Lane Kiffin’s first bite in ‘20, compared to our road trip to the Plains, Florida has the clear scheduling advantage. Obviously, the keys to our hopes are beating them, and hoping that LSU didn’t lose all their mojo to their record setting NFL draft.

For Kentucky to have a good shot at the East in 2020, they must be Road Warriors. Three of our presumably toughest games will be on the road: at UF, UT, and Auburn. I doubt our late season tilt against UGA at home could have the same “winner-take-all” implications as in 2018, unless we take at least two-out-of-three against these teams (and win at Mizzou). Fortunately, since 2016, Kentucky has shown it’s greatest sustained competitiveness on the road since the Bear Bryant era, going 9-10, with a couple of lost opportunities last year at State and USCe due to QB injuries. I don’t think 5-3 can win the East in 2020, but 6-2 could do it, if we win key heads-up matches, and if Bama and LSU do us favors in sweeping their Eastern opponents, and Auburn splits (losing to us at home and beating Georgia on the road).

My prediction on final Eastern standings:
(1) Georgia;
(2) Florida;
(3) Kentucky;
(4) UT;
(5) USCe;
(6) Vandy;
(7) Mizzou.

I think UK goes 5-3 in conference, 9-3, overall, and gets it’s second Ten win season in three years. I’d love to expect more, but with a road trip to Auburn (instead of a soft opponent like Arky or Ole Miss), and with road trips to UT and UF, our schedule does not compare favorably to Georgia’s and UF’s.
UT has only two consensus Nattys. 1951 and 1998
 
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UGA is going to have an elite defense. Not sure their transfer QB is the solution some of their fan bases seems to think he is. I'm sure they'll win the SECE, but not sure Newman improves upon what Fromm got them. Monken's offense may take time to learn too.

I think UT knocks off Florida this year. I can't be the only one who thinks Florida hits a low ceiling with Trask at QB. I think they'd be better off with Emory Jones under center if he can make the leap this year

UT and UK are very similar. UT's offensive line and backfield will be the strength of the offense. They graduated their stud WRs so not much of a deep threat, and the QBs are usually solid and sometimes great. If they start the freshman they'll have growing pains but they know what they can get from Guarantano. Defensively, UT's secondary isn't as good as UK's but their defensive line is loaded. I would have said the linebacker corp is equal prior to Oats' illness, so now I'd say UT's is a bit better.
 
Our record against UK has been pretty good - its 26-3 the last 29 years and 10 straight. Stoopes is 0-7 vs the Bulldogs, with losses by 42, 32, 24, 3, 29, 17 and 21.

We lost a national title on the last play in 2017 - we know Smart can do it. We have 3 straight 11-1 seasons, are 17-1 against the East in that span. Smart has won 3 straight East titles, an SEC title, a CFB playoff game in the Rose Bowl and also a Sugar Bowl. Even in a moderately disappointing year last year we finished in the top five and were 4-1 vs teams in the top 15.

All of that it is factual matter. Not Tenn fan “we are still elite” gibberish, no spin, just facts. Next year is a new year however and the past doesnt mean anything.
How you are still allowed to post here is baffling. You show nothing but disrespect to our program and fans.
 
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Not saying we will beat GA but do know our overall talent on both sides will again take a step up from where we were last year. QB the only position in question for me. While we have good experienced ones not sure how good they will play, unlike all the other positions that we know will be good and deep. The freshman class coming in maybe one of the best ever, so we are gaining on GA and FL IMO.
 
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All of that it is factual matter.

Yes, and those facts show a damn good program, on a level I hope UK can get to.

But I just see Kirby’s first four seasons at 44-12, stunningly similar to Mark Richt’s first four at 42-10. Playing at a level in the Top 5 in the nation, but missing the NT by just “that much.”

I think this could and should be the year, if the QB works out for UGA.
 
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Great post OP

Thanks.

I’ve seen credible posters predict we win the East. That is possible, given the strengths we have on O-line and on defense, but only if QB and WR positions perform at as high a level as the other positions.

Georgia and UF are now good enough that no team short of Top 5 play is going to sneak into Atlanta, as did a very good (but not elite) Mizzou a few seasons back, actually twice in a row.

And any team hoping to do it better have a favorable schedule.

And my analysis on that is to see where the four presumed competitors in the East play one another, and then where they play their toughest West opponent. If we assume home field holds an advantage, and accept Georgia fans’ thinking that the Jacksonville game with UF is really a UF home game, then we have a “score” among the 4 best in the East as follows:

Team: Home: . . . . . . . . Away
UGA: — One . . . . . . . . . Three
UT: —— Three . . . . . . . . One
UF: —— Three . . . . . . . . One
UK: —— One . . . . . . . . . Three

Hence, UT and Florida have clear scheduling advantages this season, as their presumably toughest opponents are mostly at home, with Georgia and Kentucky having to travel further to face their toughest.

The irony, though, is that this years’ schedule closely resembles that of 2018, when we traveled to Kyle Field, narrowly losing to a very good A & M. We have Auburn, instead, and I wouldn’t rank them as a much tougher road opponent than A & M.

And although I leave the rest of the our opponents and the East out of the conversation, there are some interesting thoughts about those teams. Mizzou and Miss. State will both have new coaches, and on average that means a step back from the prior year’s competiveness. Vandy looks to be pretty weak, and Muschamp might be on his last leg by the time the Cocks get to Lexington. We have won 4 of the last 5 in Lexington against USCe. I think we beat those 4, and win one of the games against UF, UT, Auburn and Georgia. But should we beat UF in our second game, we will be playing on house money, thereafter. Win another of the remaining three presumably most difficult games, and things get interesting!
 
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It's very unlikely any SEC team makes the playoffs unless it is a complete team.

Agreed. And with Georgia and Florida’s recruiting, I would extend the thought (now) to even getting to Atlanta. Frankly, the two times Mizzou did it, I doubt those Mizzou teams could have beaten Kentucky’s 2018 team. Yes, they were top 10/15ish, as was Kentucky in 2018, but Georgia in ‘18 (and for the foreseeable future) is Top 4/5, minimum, and UF is nipping at their heels.
 
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I do not see Vandy, Mizzou or USCe having any shot at an East title mid way through the season.

Four teams will have a shot,...
Hack, that's a damn good post. So is your third one. If I played the "likes" game I would have given you one! Heck, maybe even two! [laughing]

The 2020 SECE certainly does look like a 3 tier group of the "Top 2" (GA and FL), the "Next 2" (TN and UK) and "the other 3". The order within groups can flip but it will be hard to "move up" a tier.

Games against the SEC Fabulous 5 (I no longer count TN in a Super 6 [winking]) may well hold the difference this year.

GA (3 Games): AL (A); AU (H) and FL (N)
FL (2 Games): LSU (H); GA (N)

UK (3 Games): FL and AU (A); GA (H)
TN (3 Games): FL and AL (H); GA (A)

In the "Top 2", FL looks to have the "easier" schedule (especially with 2020 LSU still a bit of a question mark due to some huge player losses). But in all likelihood the winner of the FL/GA game will be the winner of the SECE.

The difference in the "Next 2" is tougher to call. But AL anywhere might be tougher than AU on the road. That might slightly overall favor UK. However, just like the GA/FL game will likely decide #1 and #2 in the SECE, head to head results of UK/TN may well decide 3rd place. All JMO

Peace
 
I think we go 6-2 in the SEC this year. I understand the knocks against UGA, but they recruit so well. Sure, maybe we make a big leap and take them down. It could happen. South Carolina inexplicably gives them hell, who weve beaten what...like 5 out of the last 6?

But Im not predicting that to happen. And Id say someone else will get us. The most likely is Florida. I understand Trask bailed then out after we injured Franks, bur youre not going to convince me Florida is any better than us. Weve been neck and neck the last 4 or 5 years with them. I u derstand why outsiders may not see it, but all of us here know the drill. Florida aint shit

Who knows. This is all fun and filler. Who would have thought at this time last season Lynn Bowden was going to be our QB? So much changes each week in CFB. Thats why ita so damned good.
 
Our record against UK has been pretty good - its 26-3 the last 29 years and 10 straight. Stoopes is 0-7 vs the Bulldogs, with losses by 42, 32, 24, 3, 29, 17 and 21.

We lost a national title on the last play in 2017 - we know Smart can do it. We have 3 straight 11-1 seasons, are 17-1 against the East in that span. Smart has won 3 straight East titles, an SEC title, a CFB playoff game in the Rose Bowl and also a Sugar Bowl. Even in a moderately disappointing year last year we finished in the top five and were 4-1 vs teams in the top 15.

All of that it is factual matter. Not Tenn fan “we are still elite” gibberish, no spin, just facts. Next year is a new year however and the past doesnt mean anything.

To be fair I like Kirby and Georgia both. If I wasn’t a UK fan I would be a Georgia fan in the SEC, have pulled for them in all of their big games, but does it not seem as if Kirby is on the exact same path as richt? He wins a ton of games but never the big ones
 
Kirby is on the exact same path as richt?

A point I alluded to, above. Kirby is 44-12, and Richt was at 42-10 at the same point in time, with similar rankings.

If Smart can continue his stunningly successful recruiting, he can separate himself, but to date, the end results of each of their first 4 seasons look damn near identical.

Frankly, I think this is the Dawgs’ year: knock in the door 4 times in a row, and eventually it opens.
 
A point I alluded to, above. Kirby is 44-12, and Richt was at 42-10 at the same point in time, with similar rankings.

If Smart can continue his stunningly successful recruiting, he can separate himself, but to date, the end results of each of their first 4 seasons look damn near identical.

Frankly, I think this is the Dawgs’ year: knock in the door 4 times in a row, and eventually it opens.

sorry I missed your post. Me and a friend have been keeping up with this for a long time, it’s the same trajectory, Kirby is fantastic but it’s the same thing richt got fired for when he lost more than 1-2 games. I could see them breaking through but there’s still teams on a different level than Georgia.
 
To be fair I like Kirby and Georgia both. If I wasn’t a UK fan I would be a Georgia fan in the SEC, have pulled for them in all of their big games, but does it not seem as if Kirby is on the exact same path as richt? He wins a ton of games but never the big ones

2020 will be Kirby's 5th as a head coach, it took Saban 11 years, Dabo 9, Mack Brown at least 15, coach O and Urban 6 years. Why is Kirby expected to win quicker than either of those, 1 considered the greatest ever?

He may never win it, but in 3 of the 4 years as a head coach he was still in the hunt when we played our 13th game.

Has he been perfect, absolutely not, but every other head coach has made a call that cost him a game.

Here are some differences between Richt and Kirby. Richt is an extremely loyal man, once he made a hire he wasn't going to hold that coach accountable and would not make a change. Kirby has terminated an OC, a DL coach plus 2 assistants have gone to be P5 head coaches, no one was interested in Richt's assistants. Richt recruited RB and QB pretty well, but was hands off the D and recruited OL as an afterthought, we seldom signed an OL over 280. When Kirby arrived we didn't have an OT on the roster, we took a grad transfer from FCS Rhode Island and moved our tallest OG to tackle. That isn't the case any longer, had 3 drafted in latest draft including the 1st OL taken and both OT going in the 1st. Starters this fall will be a guy that made a first team AA and Big12 defensive player of the year a non factor. The other OT will come from a group of 3 frosh, 1 considered a better prospect than Andrew Thomas was. The 2 OG were starter until injuries sidelined them, 3 of them will likely be drafted next spring. Richt didn't value OL at all.

Richt woud not seek a transfer to help a weak area, Kirby has brought in 2 QB this off season, both with starting experience at P5 programs, because we only had 3 QB on scholarship.

The depth we have now, especially on the defensive side of the ball is unreal, we have a 2 year starter that is now number 3 on the depth chart. None will put up big numbers because we rotate so many players, only 2-3 defensive guys play more than 25 plays a game. Under Richt we had 350+ DL playing 70 snaps a game.

Our D will be better this fall, was number 1 scoring D last fall. But we swap A&M for Bama so our schedule will be a little tougher, I think/hope our offense will be improved but it might not be, but probably won't be any worse.
 
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The key to our season is beating Florida in the swamp on 9/12. Do that and we should be in the thick of the division competition into Nov. Lose to Florida and we will be playing a stand in place season.

I doubt Georgia will play an undefeated regular season schedule. The Dogs have a really good roster, but replacing a bunch of key players from last year.
 
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