"The barely undefeated, about-to-lose Kentucky Wildcats"

[bigbluelou]

According to this guy at CNBC. (Clearly a basketball expert...see bio below.)


"I think Kentucky is off to a hot start this season," said [Ed] Feng. "It's the opposite of last season, when they started preseason No. 1, but struggled during the regular season." Feng points out that "they only really played well in the tournament," and his analysis of the numbers shows that this year, "the real Kentucky is somewhere between last year's and this year's team."

So look out for a loss. Don't be surprised when it comes. It probably won't be Tuesday night against a weak Missouri team, but it might be sooner than you think.


Notes

The author is Eric Chemi, Senior Editor-at-Large, Data Journalism. Before that, he worked at Bloomberg TV and Businessweek as head of data and research. He previously worked as a trader at JPMorgan and Fortress Investment Group. Chemi graduated with a degree in Electrical Engineering and Computer Science from MIT.

Ed Feng is the founder of the Power Rank, a sports data information service. Feng holds a Ph.D. and is a math whiz. He admits that Kentucky in any given game should be the winner.




This post was edited on 1/13 1:08 PM by bigbluelou

 

[ThroughBlue]

Congrats on 5000

 

[jarms24]

My wife was barely pregnant twice. I lost a ton of sleep over that near miss.

 

[ymmot31]

Working on my second million Jason, its' no big deal really.

 

[ThroughBlue]

Are we anymore "barely undefeated" than Virginia?


We are a lot more undefeated than every other team

 

[GLR5555]

Originally posted by ymmot31:

Working on my second million Jason, its' no big deal really.

Same here. Gave up on the first.

 

[catfaninsc]

Originally posted by GLR5555:

Originally posted by ymmot31:

Working on my second million Jason, its' no big deal really.

Same here. Gave up on the first.

I needed a good laugh today.

 

[catben]

I'm almost positive we will remain undefeated.

 

[BlueFE]

The break on the data is absolutely ridiculous as well. At one point in the article, the author offers a comment that even if Kentucky were 90% favorites in every game, that still implies that they should lose one out of every ten games. What? So the authors attaches a singular set of data (one game) and tries to blanket it across the whole (the remaining season)? In what realm of data analysis would anyone be allowed to make that kind of asinine statement? His entire conjecture and premise reek of fallacies as that is NOT how data is to be interpreted.

 

[bigbluelou]

Originally posted by ThroughBlue:
Congrats on 5000

Wow didn't even notice. Thanks.

 

[On-On-UK]

Originally posted by catben:
I'm almost positive we will remain undefeated.

I am certain we'll remain undefeated -
unless we lose a game.

Then I'm not so sure...

 

[LowCountryCat]

Originally posted by bigbluelou:

Originally posted by ThroughBlue:
Congrats on 5000

Wow didn't even notice. Thanks.

Jeebus Cripes, now you've ruined it. Look at the way you've started your second 5000 posts. Pathetic.

 

[StubbornPenny]

Congrats to these data analysts for barely being writers.

 

[yabbadabbadoo]

no losses for this team

tonight, and Saturday at Alabama will reassure the doubters

 

[Gary4UK]

Might is the key word..... Some people can make a living saying might....

 

[maverick1]

Ease up on the writer guys, I can see his point. For instance, a couple years ago I saw a dude barely bowl a 300 game in a tourney on TV. In like the fourth or fifth frame the 7 pin teetered a bit before finally falling. The guy was still pretty pissed about it when he finished the match.

 

[bigbluelou]

Originally posted by Prime MF:

Originally posted by bigbluelou:

Originally posted by ThroughBlue:
Congrats on 5000

Wow didn't even notice. Thanks.

Jeebus Cripes, now you've ruined it. Look at the way you've started your second 5000 posts. Pathetic.

 

[bigbluelou]

Originally posted by maverick1:
Ease up on the writer guys, I can see his point. For instance, a couple years ago I saw a dude barely bowl a 300 game in a tourney on TV. In like the fourth or fifth frame the 7 pin teetered a bit before finally falling. The guy was still pretty pissed about it when he finished the match.

I *almost* didn't LOL at this and spew Diet Mountain Dew all over my keyboard.

 

[preacherfan]

Originally posted by bigbluelou:

Originally posted by maverick1:
Ease up on the writer guys, I can see his point. For instance, a couple years ago I saw a dude barely bowl a 300 game in a tourney on TV. In like the fourth or fifth frame the 7 pin teetered a bit before finally falling. The guy was still pretty pissed about it when he finished the match.

I *almost* didn't LOL at this and spew Diet Mountain Dew all over my keyboard.

Now, I know why I like you! You also drink Diet Mt Dew! I just bought 15 2-litre bottles at Wal-mart. It was on sale for $1.

 

[bigbluelou]

Originally posted by preacherfan:

Originally posted by bigbluelou:

Originally posted by maverick1:
Ease up on the writer guys, I can see his point. For instance, a couple years ago I saw a dude barely bowl a 300 game in a tourney on TV. In like the fourth or fifth frame the 7 pin teetered a bit before finally falling. The guy was still pretty pissed about it when he finished the match.

I *almost* didn't LOL at this and spew Diet Mountain Dew all over my keyboard.

Now, I know why I like you! You also drink Diet Mt Dew! I just bought 15 2-litre bottles at Wal-mart. It was on sale for $1.

Oh heck, there are MANY reasons to like me! Just ask me and I'll tell you.

Big DMD fan here. That's a good buy on the 2-liters! My son is working for Pepsico part-time while finishing his undergrad (if he ever does.) Anyway, he can purchase "damaged" goods that can't be put out on store shelves. I can get 12-packs for $1.25 all the time. I just bought twelve 12-packs of various flavors for $15.00...the extra fridge in the garage is well-stocked.

 

[barryn2000]

Barely Undefeated...brought to you by the makers of "Almost Pregnant"™ and "Accidentally On Purpose"™

 

[bluescat92]

I all ways heard Cats have nine lives. Minus three ot' s we still have six to go...lol. Go Big Blue

 

[Major_Tom]

Everyone's got an opinion. 'Merica

 

[KWilt43atbuzz]

CLUTTER HERE! GET YOUR ICE COLD CLUTTER HERE!!!

 

[ColonelCat]

If we don't lose, we will remain undefeated. I believe my math's correct. 4 out of 3 people struggle with math.

 

[maverick1]

Originally posted by ColonelCat:
If we don't lose, we will remain undefeated.

I like the way you think.

 

[Blueaz]

Originally posted by barryn2000:
Barely Undefeated...brought to you by the makers of "Almost Pregnant"™ and "Accidentally On Purpose"™

I use the phrase " it's like being a kinda pregnant" all the time...LOL

 

[bigbluelou]

Originally posted by ColonelCat:
If we don't lose, we will remain undefeated. I believe my math's correct. 4 out of 3 people struggle with math.

Also remember that 82.3% of all statistics are made up on the spot.

 

[Ryan Lemonds Diary]

Duke is almost winless too.

 

[preacherfan]

Originally posted by bigbluelou:

Originally posted by preacherfan:

Originally posted by bigbluelou:

Originally posted by maverick1:
Ease up on the writer guys, I can see his point. For instance, a couple years ago I saw a dude barely bowl a 300 game in a tourney on TV. In like the fourth or fifth frame the 7 pin teetered a bit before finally falling. The guy was still pretty pissed about it when he finished the match.

I *almost* didn't LOL at this and spew Diet Mountain Dew all over my keyboard.

Now, I know why I like you! You also drink Diet Mt Dew! I just bought 15 2-litre bottles at Wal-mart. It was on sale for $1.

Oh heck, there are MANY reasons to like me! Just ask me and I'll tell you.

Big DMD fan here. That's a good buy on the 2-liters! My son is working for Pepsico part-time while finishing his undergrad (if he ever does.) Anyway, he can purchase "damaged" goods that can't be put out on store shelves. I can get 12-packs for $1.25 all the time. I just bought twelve 12-packs of various flavors for $15.00...the extra fridge in the garage is well-stocked.

I am envious! Wowsers! That iis a good deal!

 

[Tummygoat]

Alabama will be tough on Saturday. I don't see us overlooking LSU, but Bama can be sneaky for us.

 

[maverick1]

Originally posted by bigbluelou:
I can get 12-packs for $1.25 all the time. I just bought twelve 12-packs of various flavors for $15.00...the extra fridge in the garage is well-stocked.

May I come live with you? I don't need a room or bed, just access to that extra fridge. TIA

 

[UKWildcats#8]

Originally posted by Tummygoat:
Alabama will be tough on Saturday. I don't see us overlooking LSU, but Bama can be sneaky for us.

Overlook Alabama? The team that beat A&M by 21 while we had to go to double OT to beat them? I doubt it.

 

[WACB]

Originally posted by KWilt43atbuzz:
CLUTTER HERE! GET YOUR ICE COLD CLUTTER HERE!!!

 

[fuzz77]

Originally posted by BlueFE:
The break on the data is absolutely ridiculous as well. At one point in the article, the author offers a comment that even if Kentucky were 90% favorites in every game, that still implies that they should lose one out of every ten games. What? So the authors attaches a singular set of data (one game) and tries to blanket it across the whole (the remaining season)? In what realm of data analysis would anyone be allowed to make that kind of asinine statement? His entire conjecture and premise reek of fallacies as that is NOT how data is to be interpreted.

The likelihood that you will win a game is different for every game. That said...yes, a favorite who has a 90% chance of winning will lose 10% of the time vs that opponent. Thing is, you don't play anyone 10 times in a season...but again, if you are a 90% favorite each time then chances are that you will lose 10% of the time.
Will it happen??? In any one season, who knows because the sample size is too small. It's like flipping a coin. There's a 50% chance that it will land on Heads each time you flip the coin. Now you might flip it 10 times and get 8 Heads and 2 Tails but if you flipped the coin 10,000 times then you will likely come really close to the 50/50 distribution.

Seeing that they guy is a math wiz, he's only looking at the numbers and reporting the probabilities...which is exactly what Vegas looks at to set their odds.

 

[BlueSince92]

Originally posted by bigbluelou:

You know, you're right. I'm a little off center today...I promise to pick my game up on my very next post!

Tweak It, Lou!!!!

 

[Blueisbest]

Sounds like another hack job from a barely educated, about to be unemployed journalist.

 

[John Frusciante]

Originally posted by GLR5555:

Originally posted by ymmot31:

Working on my second million Jason, its' no big deal really.

Same here. Gave up on the first.

 

[bigbluelou]

Originally posted by maverick1:

Originally posted by bigbluelou:
I can get 12-packs for $1.25 all the time. I just bought twelve 12-packs of various flavors for $15.00...the extra fridge in the garage is well-stocked.

 

[maverick1]

Originally posted by bigbluelou:

Originally posted by maverick1:

Originally posted by bigbluelou:
I can get 12-packs for $1.25 all the time. I just bought twelve 12-packs of various flavors for $15.00...the extra fridge in the garage is well-stocked.

You drive a hard bargain but........DEAL !!!