I agree. But the problem is (as of now) there are no 50/50 games in those 8. 45/55 (2 point 'dawg in Knoxville) is about as good as it gets. Bottom line: probably going to take 4 upsets (and 2 of 'em in the 10 point 'dawg range) to get 8 wins.
Peace
Tell me what you believe our path to 8-4 is.
- Thread starter ukgrad2004
- Start date
Peace
I know what you’re saying about what the oddsmakers think, but I’m going with what I think are close to being tossup games.
Florida....I think talent wise we’re every bit as good as they are this year.
Tennessee...see above.
South Carolina...it’s a home game and we beat them last season.
Missouri...great offense, but we can pound Benny and keep them off the field.
Louisville...Jackson is gone, as is 8 starters from a defense that wasn’t good in the first place.
Actually, we need to go at least 3-2 in these five games.
The UL spread won't be 9.5 when we play, you can count on that.
Fans go with what they think for fun and support but oddsmakers do it for money!
![[laughing]](http://l.yimg.com/j/assets/img/emoticons/classic/laugh.r191677.gif "Laughing [laughing]")
Assuming losses to MSU, aTm and GA winning 3 of the above 5 would put the Cats at 7-5 regular season. That is 1 game short of the 8-4 mark the OP was addressing. And 4 of those 5 games are on the road. FWIW, right now 7 wins is what I expect but I'll be damned if I can name any others than 3 OOCs and Vandy.
Peace
Miss st I s starting to get “the voodoo” on us....hard game to win - seems that we should be a lot more competitive in that series
I didn't say that it isn't a tough game. It is. Just saying that the environment is not at all a factor that will hurt UK.
We stand a good chance against every team on the schedule. We shouldn’t be shy about it.
The scary thing about this schedule is that there aren't many "sure things" outside of the 3 OOC and Vandy. The great thing about this schedule is that every game is winnable.
Yes, even Georgia. Georgia is becoming a juggernaut, but we play them at home the week after they play UF and the week before they play Auburn. Couldn't ask for a better scenario than that.
Yes, even Georgia. Georgia is becoming a juggernaut, but we play them at home the week after they play UF and the week before they play Auburn. Couldn't ask for a better scenario than that.
I got your opinion. I don't necessarily agree, but understand. Two years ago, we did shut their crowd down early and did a pretty good job of keeping them out of the outcome. Four years ago, I suspect that the crowd played a role in our safety McWilson dropping a pass that landed right in his breadbasket that could have sealed a UK win late in the fourth quarter. I think their crowd played a role in the frustration of Francois in Petrino's only win over a ranked team this second go at UL. Its a crowd that can be quieted, but in big games they can be influential.
Fai
Fair enough. In all honesty I think 7-5 is probably about right.Fans go with what they think for fun and support but oddsmakers do it for money!
Assuming losses to MSU, aTm and GA winning 3 of the above 5 would put the Cats at 7-5 regular season. That is 1 game short of the 8-4 mark the OP was addressing. And 4 of those 5 games are on the road. FWIW, right now 7 wins is what I expect but I'll be damned if I can name any others than 3 OOCs and Vandy.
Peace
Not sure how you come up with the equal talent to Fla. Go look at the recruiting rankings. Did they underperform last year? Absolutely! But to say there is equal talent on the field, I don’t buy it.
Tier 1: 3 non conference + Vandy - Wins
Tier 2: Scar, Miss State, @Tenn, @Mizzou, @Louisville
Tier 3: @Florida (talent wise probably belong in Tier 2, but that 32 game win streak is hard to predict going down there and winning), @A&M, UGA
Tier 1: 4 wins
Tier 2: 3-2 (my predictions would be Scar/Mizzou/Tenn)
Tier 3: win one of these and its the cherry on top
7-5
Tier 2: Scar, Miss State, @Tenn, @Mizzou, @Louisville
Tier 3: @Florida (talent wise probably belong in Tier 2, but that 32 game win streak is hard to predict going down there and winning), @A&M, UGA
Tier 1: 4 wins
Tier 2: 3-2 (my predictions would be Scar/Mizzou/Tenn)
Tier 3: win one of these and its the cherry on top
7-5
Like every other yr if the defense can't stop the run UK will struggle. The offseason losses on defense really hurts and has to adjust the expectations
If we win cupcake games, win 3 SEC games and beat Louisville, we win 8 games. I think we need to win 4 conference games, minimum, to have a successful season ... with the high expectations because of returning players.
Don't consider any game a pipe dream before it's played...was Troy beating LSU in BR a pipe dream last year. In the long run I'm hoping one of these guys will do fine. I'm much more concerned about the offense being turned loose a little more... Don't consider any lead safe.
It should be but who knows how Prepared we ll be. A real wildcard with this staff
Yep. Missouri is the projected spread I'm not sure I completely buy. They're projected as a 10-ish point favorite. Let's revisit that projection a few weeks into the season (say, after they've played at Purdue and we've played at Florida).
Maybe it's right (Drew Lock is awesome), but I think there's a good deal of uncertainty about that team.
It's tough.
I think people under-sell the significance of beating SC FOUR STRAIGHT YEARS.
We can't exactly just bank that win, the way some teams have done for us for years at a time.
So, in addition to maintaining that series dominance, we have to win @ UT and/or @ FL.
We haven't won @ UT since 1984. We haven't won @ UF since 1979.
Then we also have to make sure we beat Vandy, while also going on the road to beat Missouri.
This isn't easy, especially for a team that just lot a QB who was a relative "winner", at least when compared to years of predecessors.
IMO, we need the QB play to be better than expected, and that only happens if it's Terry Wilson, and he's the Terry Wilson that was good enough to sign with Oregon.
If he's not the guy, then I think we have problems, and will struggle to snag 3 wins in conference.
Now, if there is a real surprise win out there to be had, look at the A&M game.
No real history there between the teams that's relevant at all to this upcoming game.
I wouldn't consider winning there to be any more shocking than going into Columbia and winning 2 of the last 3 seasons.
I think people under-sell the significance of beating SC FOUR STRAIGHT YEARS.
We can't exactly just bank that win, the way some teams have done for us for years at a time.
So, in addition to maintaining that series dominance, we have to win @ UT and/or @ FL.
We haven't won @ UT since 1984. We haven't won @ UF since 1979.
Then we also have to make sure we beat Vandy, while also going on the road to beat Missouri.
This isn't easy, especially for a team that just lot a QB who was a relative "winner", at least when compared to years of predecessors.
IMO, we need the QB play to be better than expected, and that only happens if it's Terry Wilson, and he's the Terry Wilson that was good enough to sign with Oregon.
If he's not the guy, then I think we have problems, and will struggle to snag 3 wins in conference.
Now, if there is a real surprise win out there to be had, look at the A&M game.
No real history there between the teams that's relevant at all to this upcoming game.
I wouldn't consider winning there to be any more shocking than going into Columbia and winning 2 of the last 3 seasons.
Pull 2-3 upsets then we should get 8 . Need them to be road wins as well. I think we hold at home and beat UL, UT, UF on road we get 8.
%Chance of winning
Sept. 1 CENTRAL MICHIGAN 65%
Sept. 8 at Florida 43%
Sept. 15 MURRAY STATE 91%
Sept. 22 MISSISSIPPI STATE 43%
Sept. 29 SOUTH CAROLINA 59%
Oct. 6 at Texas A&M 27%
Oct. 13 Open Date
Oct. 20 VANDERBILT 68%
Oct. 27 at Missouri 57%
Nov. 3 GEORGIA 29%
Nov. 10 at Tennessee 50%
Nov. 17 MIDDLE TENNESSEE 72%
Nov. 24 at Louisville 46%
I just put those odds down from my head and my thoughts on the opponent and our team. You add those up you get 6.5 wins. We get a couple good breaks we win 7, we get a couple of bad breaks we win 6. It's going to take a lot good breaks or us being significantly better at QB (about the same as last 2 years is my prediction) than I think we are to get to 8 imo. We could very well be significantly worse at QB than I think we are too. Who knows? At this point that is the big mystery for UK Football in 2018.
Sept. 1 CENTRAL MICHIGAN 65%
Sept. 8 at Florida 43%
Sept. 15 MURRAY STATE 91%
Sept. 22 MISSISSIPPI STATE 43%
Sept. 29 SOUTH CAROLINA 59%
Oct. 6 at Texas A&M 27%
Oct. 13 Open Date
Oct. 20 VANDERBILT 68%
Oct. 27 at Missouri 57%
Nov. 3 GEORGIA 29%
Nov. 10 at Tennessee 50%
Nov. 17 MIDDLE TENNESSEE 72%
Nov. 24 at Louisville 46%
I just put those odds down from my head and my thoughts on the opponent and our team. You add those up you get 6.5 wins. We get a couple good breaks we win 7, we get a couple of bad breaks we win 6. It's going to take a lot good breaks or us being significantly better at QB (about the same as last 2 years is my prediction) than I think we are to get to 8 imo. We could very well be significantly worse at QB than I think we are too. Who knows? At this point that is the big mystery for UK Football in 2018.
I think UF and South Carolina are make or break games for anything more than 6.UF is UF and 31 is 31(not talking flavors of ice cream either) Will we be good enough to have a chance to win when the 4th quarter of that game rolls around and can we get it done if we are in that position.
South Carolina will be gunning for us because of recent history,we are at home so they should have their work cut out for them but I'm pretty sure they have the game marked on the calendar. They will want this game as much as just about any on heir schedule.We will have to be ready to match that level.
South Carolina will be gunning for us because of recent history,we are at home so they should have their work cut out for them but I'm pretty sure they have the game marked on the calendar. They will want this game as much as just about any on heir schedule.We will have to be ready to match that level.
I appreciate your effort on this, but you are seriously giving us a 59% chance to beat South Carolina and only 65% to beat C. Michigan? I'd drop about 10 points at least in the Carolina game and add about 25 or 30 to CMU.
If it’s any consolation ESPN’s FPI predicts 5.4 wins and a 13th place finish in the SEC.
Murray State will probably be the first game I get to. Coming back from Hilton Head opening day, my intent is to be in Lexington before kickoff. If we get back early enough then I'll head down to the Krog, but most likely I'll be home sometime after gametime. No worries, satellite radio will have Leach and the boys covering my gameday needs!
Thanks for replying to my thread guys. I don't gamble but right now I would bet on 7-5. Can't go any higher than that without knowing where we stand at QB. Like other posters have said, if we go 2-1 or better against UF/MSU/SC, then a special season becomes a real possibility.
I really hope you people are right and that we get to 8 wins. I just have a hard time seeing us beating Florida and Tennessee on the road. Both were poor teams last year, but both have new coaches and we haven't beaten Florida in Gainesville since 1979 and Tennessee in Knoxville since 1984. Mullen was at Miss. State for 8 years I believe and UK beat him just once. So, I have a hard time believing that UK can go into those environments and get a W.
Louisville killed us a year ago and it took a somewhat miracle fumble for us to win the year before that (although we should have killed them in 2015 after being up 21-0 or whatever it was). They lost a Heisman winner, but still hard for me to really believe that we will beat them after they killed us. Not to mention that UK struggles with running QBs (always have) and they will have another good one.
Louisville killed us a year ago and it took a somewhat miracle fumble for us to win the year before that (although we should have killed them in 2015 after being up 21-0 or whatever it was). They lost a Heisman winner, but still hard for me to really believe that we will beat them after they killed us. Not to mention that UK struggles with running QBs (always have) and they will have another good one.
(1) I guess, by that logic, it took a dropped interception by McWilson for them to beat us in 2014?
(2) It did not take a miracle fumble for UK to beat UL. That was a high scoring game where a lot of plays were made, including Benny's fumble that helped UL and the last minute drive down the field that set up the FG. One play did not determine that game.
This thread makes me want to hang myself! Bunch of scaredy cat fans and a turd fan trying to downplay expectations. We have won 14 games the last two years with way less experience and talent. If we can't win 8 freaking games this year it's time to rethink who is coaching this team. It's year 6 and we are to scared to expect a good season. The coaches have all the pressure and I guarantee you they expect more than a mediocre season. Let's raise the expectations and pack Commonwealth.
I call it a miracle because of the entire situation regarding the fumble. First, that it happened with the game tied and on the 9 yard line with under 1:40 to play. Second, because it really wasn't forced in the traditional sense. We didn't punch the ball out or put a hat on the ball. Jackson was playing loose with the ball and fighting to stay up and luckily for UK his wrist hit the ground and caused a fumble. An inch the other way and the back of his hand hits and it isn't ruled a fumble and they have second down and the ball with the clock still running. Heck, if the refs don't rule it a fumble in the first place then they might not overturn it on review and we wouldn't have had the opportunity for the game winning field goal.
Yes, a game is not typically made up of one play, but of many, but that was certainly a defining moment that entirely changed that game and without that fumble we likely lose because the amount of time left would have been probably somewhere under 30 seconds when UK got the ball back.
Tradition sense? He was scrambling for his life trying to make something happen, because he was pressured by defenders. I think that is how many fumbles happen.
Yes, admittedly, UK helped to create this good fortune with pressure. Jackson wasn't just standing there with no one around and dropped the ball. He was dancing around and fighting for positive yards and in doing so he braced with the hand that had the football. They ruled it a fumble. There was a ton of argument of whether it really was or was not a fumble because it was extremely close to being the back of the hand. If they don't rule it a fumble on the field I doubt they overturn it and give the ball to UK, it was that close.
If UK went in and blindsided Jackson and rocked him so he dropped the ball we wouldn't be having this conversation because UK would have definitely created that fumble. However, that isn't what happened. We got a big time break very very late in a football game with our opponent on the UK 9 yard line. All I have done is point that out, and even also pointed out that we should have eaten their cookies the year before after getting off to an amazing start.
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