I will give you the first 3 OOC games plus Vandy. Take away UGA and A&M, I'm not sure I see us going 4-2 against everyone else.
Tell me what you believe our path to 8-4 is.
- Thread starter ukgrad2004
- Start date
I think it is very possible, maybe not quite probable. This is my most likely route to our Cats winning eight games.
Sept. 1 CENTRAL MICHIGAN (W)
Sept. 8 at Florida (W)
Sept. 15 MURRAY STATE (W)
Sept. 22 MISSISSIPPI STATE
Sept. 29 SOUTH CAROLINA (W)
Oct. 6 at Texas A&M
Oct. 13 Open Date
Oct. 20 VANDERBILT (W)
Oct. 27 at Missouri (W)
Nov. 3 GEORGIA
Nov. 10 at Tennessee (W)
Nov. 17 MIDDLE TENNESSEE (W)
Nov. 24 at Louisville
Sept. 1 CENTRAL MICHIGAN (W)
Sept. 8 at Florida (W)
Sept. 15 MURRAY STATE (W)
Sept. 22 MISSISSIPPI STATE
Sept. 29 SOUTH CAROLINA (W)
Oct. 6 at Texas A&M
Oct. 13 Open Date
Oct. 20 VANDERBILT (W)
Oct. 27 at Missouri (W)
Nov. 3 GEORGIA
Nov. 10 at Tennessee (W)
Nov. 17 MIDDLE TENNESSEE (W)
Nov. 24 at Louisville
While I won't predict 8 wins this season, I also will not at this point concede A&M and UL on the road. Both of those road games will be against good teams in tough environments. If we have a punter and kicker, I think there is a chance UK surprises one of those teams. That said, I think it may take UK playing at its best to beat USClite for the fifth time in a row.
And let me be clear, there is a reason I didn't mark the other games as losses. I think we stand a great chance against Louisville and who knows what will happen with MSU.
I currently believe MSU is the second hardest game on our schedule, even at home.
6 of 7 games at home are winnable. Does it happen? IDK. Then, 2 from Missou, FL, TN, Louisville.
A&M and UofL are both beatable. Georgia is the only game on that schedule I have zero expectation. We can win any of the others. Just depends on what kind of mistakes we make and what our opponents make that we capitalize on.
All of the games are winnable! Yes, I said all. However, 8 of the 12 are also losable. I think we win the 4 occ and Vandy and split 4 of the other 8. I believe people are going to be surprised at the Florida and Georgia games the most though!
Go Big Blue!
IMO beat The Gators! A win in the Swamp will make beating Mizzo, Texas A&M, Miss. State, lot more predictable. I'm counting wins versus o.o.c.teams and Vandy.
Win 2 of UF,MSU USC.There are 6 wins to be had in the remaining games.
UL is not a tough environment. We win there more often than we beat them at home.
I think 8 wins are possible, but so is 5.
To get there, I think the most likely path is:
3 OOC
Candy
South Carolina
Mizzou
Tennessee
UL
To get there, I think the most likely path is:
3 OOC
Candy
South Carolina
Mizzou
Tennessee
UL
That schedule right there is why UK is one of the best P5 jobs in football.
Low expectations combined with cupcakes both in the SEC and out of conference make a bowl birth almost impossible NOT to achieve.
I am a little cautious about posting now but I .ca see getting to 8 wins, but taking a different route. I believe UK goes 4-0 in the OOC games, think UofL is going to be down this year. Which leaves 4 conference games to get, Vandy is one and someone will hire Mason as their new DC next year. I think Missouri has handcuffed themelf hiring Dooley as OC who plans to slow their offense down. UT will have 2 top WR, but haven't found anyone to throw to them and don't have a dominant back to lean on. The other may surprise, I think A&M will be the 8th. The other games are winnable, but with a healthy Fitzgerald and that defensive front at State, it's not a good matchup.
UF will have almost 40 players they didn't have last year, a full signing class, 9 suspended players return and 2 WR transfers have been declared eligible, it's impossible to know what they will be like. The plus is 3rd and Grantham is their DC, snap it quick while they are running to position.
Carolina is expecting to be good, but UK has their number right now. Offensivel Samuel is a stud, the other WR are SEC receivers, but had inflated stats because they couldn't run the ball last season. They get their RB back, but he isn't a dominant type back. Defensively they lost 7 starters and will be small in the secondary until the transfer is ruled on. I was torn on putting Carolina or A&M on the road to 8, both are very winnable.
UGA lost a lot on both sides of the ball, physically the only one who can't be replaced is Smith at LB, even the RB have proven backs who have waited till time, what's lost is their leadership. WR and OL will both be deep, no WR will have huge stats because about 8 will play, at least that is what we are being told. I think potentially UGA could be good, but several games we could lose and UK is one of those. 10-2 wouldn't shock me, but neither would 12-0.
UF will have almost 40 players they didn't have last year, a full signing class, 9 suspended players return and 2 WR transfers have been declared eligible, it's impossible to know what they will be like. The plus is 3rd and Grantham is their DC, snap it quick while they are running to position.
Carolina is expecting to be good, but UK has their number right now. Offensivel Samuel is a stud, the other WR are SEC receivers, but had inflated stats because they couldn't run the ball last season. They get their RB back, but he isn't a dominant type back. Defensively they lost 7 starters and will be small in the secondary until the transfer is ruled on. I was torn on putting Carolina or A&M on the road to 8, both are very winnable.
UGA lost a lot on both sides of the ball, physically the only one who can't be replaced is Smith at LB, even the RB have proven backs who have waited till time, what's lost is their leadership. WR and OL will both be deep, no WR will have huge stats because about 8 will play, at least that is what we are being told. I think potentially UGA could be good, but several games we could lose and UK is one of those. 10-2 wouldn't shock me, but neither would 12-0.
I will take (2) SEC road wins at Missouri and Tennessee ... I think we will win (1) but not both.
It’s a rivalry game on an away field against a team that has had our number more often than not over the past six years.
I agree with the Florida game being a big game we have a punchers chance to win. I think we win 8 games either way if we were to go to the Georgia game undefeated the Game becomes a toss up. I really believe in old MO especially if you have the talent and experience to back it up and the win over Florida could give the team the Momentum needed to make a run for the EAST TITLE.
Everything will hinge on QB play and stopping the opponents run game, everything.
I can bear 5 wins...but:
Here’s the caveat- we can’t get rolled by ANYONE. There truly is not one team that should beat us by 20+ points...
If it happens, it’s on Stoops. He should be shitcanned if we get embarrassed like we did last year against UofL, UGA or Miss St. inexcusable with a veteran team.
Hard-fought losses are a sign of preparedness, heart, selflessness and toughness... getting pistol whipped is a sign your coach sucks.
Here’s the caveat- we can’t get rolled by ANYONE. There truly is not one team that should beat us by 20+ points...
If it happens, it’s on Stoops. He should be shitcanned if we get embarrassed like we did last year against UofL, UGA or Miss St. inexcusable with a veteran team.
Hard-fought losses are a sign of preparedness, heart, selflessness and toughness... getting pistol whipped is a sign your coach sucks.
A&M maybe but not UL. Neither UK nor UL have an intimidating home field. Both UK and UL trade wins purely on who is better. The home field basically has had no impact whatsoever. This is different than it is with other teams. UK is far more likely to beat Florida or Tennessee in Lexington than on the road but with UL it doesn't really matter.
I think that Florida this year, like last year, is a deal-breaker. With the negativity of the Florida loss last year, we just seemed to have lost our confidence, even with the SEC East being somewhat down.
With our schedule this year and the SEC apparently being stronger, I am afraid that a loss to Florida might be devastating.
I remember that game so well. That teams first string was legit just absolutely no depth. My oldest son was 2 and ate a Yorkie turd mid 4th qtr. I had him under the sink running back and fourth trying to not miss anything.#1 LSU
Let's count all of the years UK went without at least one 20+ point loss.
I believe 2007 was the last time that happened.
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I don’t think it would take much to surprise Louisville. That is a very very winnable game. Lamar Jackson is in the NFL now.
Looking strictly at the 8 other games, the projected spread for those games, the historic winning percentage of those spreads and averaging it over those 8 games we see that the Cats should win 2 of those 8 games for a 6 win regular season. Which ones? TN and SC are the two "most likely" (followed by a 3 way tie of MSU, @MO and @UofL). (edit)
FWIW, the "summary" projection of (probably) winning 2 of the remaining 8 is more accurate than attempting to individually identify which 2 it will be. The Cats project as at least a 9.5 'dawg in all but SC (3.5 'dawg) and TN (2.0 'dawg).
All just math. We'll see how it goes in real life.
Peace
FWIW, the "summary" projection of (probably) winning 2 of the remaining 8 is more accurate than attempting to individually identify which 2 it will be. The Cats project as at least a 9.5 'dawg in all but SC (3.5 'dawg) and TN (2.0 'dawg).
All just math. We'll see how it goes in real life.
Peace
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Agree. It's going to come down to winning at least two 50/50 games.
One of the more friendly schedules we've had in a long time.
Six of the seven home games are very winnable. We're better than Missouri. UT and UF are down. UL is post Lamar.
Kyle Field and the aggies are an unknown. They were mediocre last year with some bad games and an offensive friendly defense. However, their home field atmosphere is well known and they have a new coach who has a championship ring.
Basically, the path to 8 is 6 home wins and stealing two on the road.
Six of the seven home games are very winnable. We're better than Missouri. UT and UF are down. UL is post Lamar.
Kyle Field and the aggies are an unknown. They were mediocre last year with some bad games and an offensive friendly defense. However, their home field atmosphere is well known and they have a new coach who has a championship ring.
Basically, the path to 8 is 6 home wins and stealing two on the road.
beat Florida and this becomes an entirely different question . . . GBB
Let’s go with the 3 OoC wins and Vandy you propose op. The 3 key games are MSU and SC at home, and UL. We’ve beaten all 3 in recent years. We may be dogs in all 3, but those are winnable games for a program on the rise. If that’s in fact what we are. Then maybe at Missouri for 8. UT isn’t on top of the world having gone 0-8 last year. Could we finally win in Knoxville for the first time in over 30 years? Nah! But maybe.
We absolutely should beat Tennessee. They figure to be hot garbage. Jeremy Pruitt halfway sounded to me like he already knows it.
And they lost eight starters off a defense that already wasn’t very good.
Having grown up in Harlan with Knoxville but 2 hours away and Lexington 4 it was a big part of my youth. Our TV stations were out of Knoxville, the tri cities, and Asheville, NC. I want to see UK end that streak in Knoxville as bad as I want anything in sports. Even more than the overall steak against Florida. We need to take care of our that business to though.
Win the 4 OOC games, and go 4-4 in the SEC, like we have the past 2 seasons and ...... Viola, 8 wins and maybe an Outback Bowl bid !!
I agree w the sentiment, but not the extreme. For example ... we lost a close one to UF last year. Was the team prepared? And showed heart, selflessness and toughness? Or did we lose bc of coaching?
Most on here would say coaching. All Im disagreeing with is it doesnt have to be one or the other. It could be both, or neither.
Yes, Im being Capt Obvious. But i think many on here believe its one or the other ONLY.
I do agree with your first comment; i could handle 5-7 if we are competitive and play like a P5 team should.
I cant wait for the season!
