I'm not buying any of this. My opinion: Calipari gets a pass this season, no matter what happens. I doubt it will be a losing season, but anything is possible.
December includes...
At Miami (not impossible, but tough), then neutral game with Michigan (which will be tough).
Then comes the SEC, which is gonna be tough for everyone. 18 games of murderer's row. He's got 2 losses already with a couple more likely before January. OOC 9-4 is likely. I bet 10-8 is the best he'll do in the SEC, could be worse. So, 19-12 is likely, and a bubble team.
But 8-10 in the SEC and 17-14 overall is also possible, which leaves them an NIT team. From what I've seen of Arkansas so far, they're gonna have a tough time winning anything on the road.
Having said all this, I still say it's a free pass this season for Cal. They've inversted too much to drop him quickly. Do it again next year and they'll lose patience with him quickly.