SEC Over/Under Win Totals
- Thread starter Smashcat
- Start date
You can get 6 right now at some books 5dimes has it at 6 but its 140/100
If this is counting the SEC Championship and all bowl games, I might consider mortgaging the house and putting it on Alabama at 10.5!
Bama - OVER
Auburn - Stay away (have to play Bama, LSU, Georgia, + Clemson on road)
Georgia - Over (though I think they push)
LSU - Stay away; too many unknowns, plus Orgeron is coach
Florida - Stay away; they are finicky. They could lose to UK or Vandy, but could beat UT and Georgia.
UT - UNDER; they have more talent than people realize, but they also have butch jones as coach. Plus ,their schedule includes annual loss to Bama, Loss to LSU, at least one loss between UF and UGA; tossup against Ga Tech, virtual tossup against UK in lexington (the week after Bama), another roady against Mizzou with a dangerous QB, an improved South carolina team that beat them last year; 8 wins will be tough for them to get, especially if they lose the opener.
A&M - Over; Sumlin never wins many big games (post Manziell), but he wins 8 or 9 every year.
UK - Stay away; these are heady times, I think needing to win 8 games to cash in just doesn't have enough upside. If number were 6, I'd be all in.
Arkansas - Stay away; brutal division, too many unknowns, and an OOC game against TCU
Mizzou - UNDER; this team is bad and the coaching staff looked in over its head.
Vandy - Stay away; same rationale as above for UK; needing Candy to win 7 games to cash in just doesn't make sense
Miss - OVER; this team still has talent. They'll win 6+ games
Miss St - WAY OVER; their QB is legit, their coach is second best coach in SEC. Sure, division is brutal, but they win at least a few against Arky, Miss, LSU, and Aubie. They always play a soft OOC schedule too. This is a layup.
South Carolina - Stay away; i think they're going to be really bad, but may be good enough to win 6. tough schedule - SEC games + NC State and Clemson OOC
As everything looks today I think 7 is a good O/U number but would not pay that vigorish to play the Over against a 6. Furthermore, I never think bets that tie your $ the entire season embody good $ management.
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Peace
I am thinking five to six right now. The schedule is tough, and I like the schedule in even years better such as 2014,2016,2018.... and so on becuase it puts games UK never wins such as Florida and Tennessee on the road, while games UK has a chance of winning at home such as Vanderbilt. No reason to waste home games by playing teams UK can't beat anywhere.
I think UK wins the games against the G5. Plus two SEC games minimum, I think they can get a third SEC win but it will take a close win over a pretty good opponent.
I think UK wins the games against the G5. Plus two SEC games minimum, I think they can get a third SEC win but it will take a close win over a pretty good opponent.
If you still think this way, you are out of step with what is happening now inside our football program. Don't be afraid. LOL! 7 wins is the right number for a Vegas book to post for our over/under, but we have a good shot to win 8-9 this year if everything goes right. Depends on winning a couple of competitive road games. But this team is capable of it.
Vegas isn't buying all the South Carolina hype, also not cutting McElwain much slack.
I understand the sentiment, but I think the improved recruiting and momentum around the program will result in far fewer "can't win, never win" types of games. UK's not ready to beat Alabama or Ohio state, but teams like Florida and Tennessee shouldn't be considered unbeatable any longer. Vandy has beaten UT at least three times in the last 6-7 years. South Carolina regularly beats UT. Mizzou won the east by beating both teams a handful of times. It's time for UK to step up.
Vegas used 7 only because they knew they'd get the eternal optimists to bet one way and realists the other. Agree, they're capable of beating some teams on the road, but every team in the SEC is capable of beating every other team. Doing it is another thing.
Great observations. There is more balance in the SECE than I can remember. Every game on our 2017 schedule is realistically winnable, which is a big change historically. Every game should be competitive. We won't win all of them, but we shouldn't get blown out this year. Being more consistent and taking better care of the football can be the difference between 7 wins and 9 wins. A great season from SJ and a healthy season for Benny could take us farther.
I agree with you but I'm 28 so it's hard to see Florida and Tennessee as winnable games, UK is 1-53 against those teams in my life and 1-39 since I started following UK. Don't get me started on how pissed I was after the 2014, 2015 Florida games.
If I forget about history then the only unwinnable game this year is at Georgia. The SEC west is a guantlet but the Mississippi teams are the draw I would prefer. At Vandy is never scary nor is at G5 southern miss. Beating the G5 plus Vandy and Missouri is a must this year, which I expect will happen.
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I get it. I'm 39, and started following closely in the early 90s, so I have much the same track record of misery.
