Scouting Louisville

[IL Wildcat]

Louisville Cardinals
Conference: Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC)
Head Coach: Pat Kelsey overall (267-126)
Winthrop Eagles (189-95) (Big South)
Charleston Cougars (75-27) (Coastal Athletic)
1st Year at Louisville (6-4)

Schedule/Results (6-4)
11/4 vs MOREHEAD St W, 93-45
11/9 vs 12 TENNESSEE L, 77-55
11/19 vs BELLARMINE W, 100-68
11/22 vs WINTHROP W, 76-61
11/27 vs 14 Indiana (neutral) W, 89-61
11/28 vs West Virginia (neutral) W, 79-70
11/29 vs Oklahoma (neutral) L, 69-64
12/3 vs 23 OLE MISS L, 86-63
12/8 vs 9 DUKE L, 76-65
12/11 vs UTEP W, 77-74
12/14 @ 5 Kentucky: Rupp Arena (20,500)

Game Info: December 14 in Lexington, KY
Game time: 5:15pm EST
TV: ESPN (Dan Shulman & Jay Bilas)
Spectrum Cable: Channel 28 DISH Network: Channel 140
DirecTV: Channel 206 U-verse: Channel 1602
Radio: UK Sports Network (Tom Leach & Jack Givens)
Radio Over the air: WLAP-AM 630, WBUL-FM 98.1
Satellite radio: XM Channel 190, Internet Channel 960
Louisville broadcast: XM Channel 371

Probable Starters
#24 G Chucky Hepburn 6-2 190 Sr 14.1pts, 3.3reb, 4.8ast, 3.2stl, 32.6% 3fg
#6 G Reyne Smith 6-2 190 Sr 12.1pts, 3.1reb, 37.1% 3fg
#1 G J’Vonne Hadley 6-6 215 5th Yr Sr 9.8pts, 8.0reb, 1.8ast, 25.0% 3fg
#0 F James Scott 6-11 220 So 7.0pts, 5.8reb, 1.1ast, 0.0% 3fg
#93 F Noah Waterman 6-11 230 6th Ye Sr 6.2pts, 4.1reb, 1.0blk, 22.0% 3fg

Key Reserves
#5 G Terrence Edwards Jr. 6-6 205 5th Yr Sr 12.9pts, 3.2reb, 2.1ast, 26.1% 3fg
#9 F Khani Rooths 6-8 205 Fr 4.1pts, 3.3reb, 18.2% 3fg
#13 C Frank Anselem-Ibe 6-10 220 5th Yr Sr 0.3pts, 1.0reb, 0.0% 3fg
OUT #7 F Kasean Pryor 6-10 225 5th Yr Sr 12.0pts, 6.1reb, 2.1ast, 1.6stl, 15.2% 3fg

Team Statistics
Points per game 76.0
Points allowed 68.1
Scoring margin +7.9
Field goal pct .428
FG% allowed .422
3-point FG pct .282
3FG% allowed .329
Free throw pct .707
Rebounds per game 38.7
Rebounds allowed 34.7
Rebounding margin +4.0
Assists per game 13.6
Turnovers per game 13.3
Turnovers forced 15.6
Turnover margin +2.2
Assist/turnover ratio 1.0
Steals per game 8.0
Blocks per game 3.4

KenPom Analysis
Overall rating: #59
Offense: #79
Defense: #42
Best Numbers
Off 2pt%: #13
Def Non-Steal TO%: #24
Off Rebounding %: #35
Worst Numbers
Off 3pt%: #341 (27%)
Off Turnover%: #224
Def 3pt%: #213 (33.9%)
Off Effective FG%: #205

Analysis: Well, for many the biggest game of the year is here. It’s Kentucky. It’s Louisville. It’s ESPN. It’s Shulman and Bilas (and Rupp Arena soft serve ice cream will get a cameo). The state of Kentucky’s 2 most historic teams and 2 of the greatest programs in men’s college basketball. UK comes in sporting a #5 ranking in the latest AP poll, with a 9-1 overall record, with huge neutral site wins over Duke and Gonzaga. Louisville comes in with a 6-4 record with big neutral site wins over Indiana and West Virginia but 20+ point losses to Tennessee and Ole Miss, an 11pt loss to Duke and a close loss to Oklahoma on a neutral court. I didn’t realize it before I started preparing this, but this will be this Louisville team’s first true road game of the season.

Both teams have an injury or two that are significant. As we know, the Cats are definitely missing PG Kerr Kriisa for this game and could potentially be missing Lamont Butler if he’s not quite healed from his ankle injury. We’re all hoping he will be back for this game. Meanwhile, Louisville has lost starting forward Kasean Pryor a 6-10 225 5th Year Senior who was averaging 12.0 points, 6.1 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.6 steals to a season-ending ACL injury. They are also missing Aboubacar Traore (broken arm) and Koren Johnson (shoulder). Traore was a starter to begin the season, though Johnson was not quite as important to the team. The Cardinals only played a total of 8 players in their last game versus UTEP, which they won 77-74, and big man Anselem-Ibe only played 5 minutes. So, it’s basically a 7-man rotation.

Those hoping for an absolute slaughter of Louisville in Rupp on Saturday afternoon may be disappointed, though we’re all hoping for domination. Even without these injured players, the Cardinals have been competitive against most everyone, Tennessee and Ole Miss not withstanding. Even against Duke, and without the players I’ve mentioned here, they still were competitive. In fact, they had a lead until about the 8-minute mark in that game when Duke finally began to assert itself and pushed a lead to double-digits and held a comfortable lead to the end.

Looking at Louisville, one thing that jumps out is that play hard on defensive every time down the floor and on offense they will shoot threes all day. They are actually accomplishing what Mark Pope wants UK to do. They’re averaging 30 threes a game. (31.8 to be exact). Problem is, they’re making less than 9 threes a game and shooting 27%. That makes them a very inefficient team. But the problem is, if those threes are falling, they are a threat.

Looking at personnel, the top scorer on the team is their point guard #24 Chucky Hepburn, a 6-2 190lb Senior averaging 14.3 points, 3.3 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 3.2 steals, and shooting 33.3% from 3. He is leading the team in point, assists, and steals. He does a little bit of everything for the team. His backcourt mate is #6 shooting guard Reyne Smith, a 6-2 190lb Senior averaging 12.1 points, 3.1 rebounds, and shooting 37.1% from 3. He has shot 81 threes on the season, which is nearly double the number of attempts of anyone else on the team. The small forward is #1 J’Vonne Hadley a 6-6 215lb 5th Year Senior averaging 9.8 points, 8.0 rebounds, 1.8 assists, and shoots 25.0% from 3. Down low, the Cards have a pair of 6-11 forwards starting. #0 James Scott is a 6-11 220lb Sophomore averaging 7.0 points, 5.8 rebounds, 1.1 assists, and doesn’t shoot threes. The other starter was a player for Mark Pope last season at BYU. It’s #93 Noah Waterman a 6-11 230lb 6th Year Senior averaging 6.2 points, 4.1 rebounds, 1.0 block, and shooting 22.0% from 3.

From the bench, the top scorer is #5 Guard Terrence Edwards Jr. a 6-6 205lb 5th Year Senior averaging 12.9 points, 3.2 rebounds, 2.1 assists, and shooting 26.1% from 3. Honestly, Edwards is averaging more minutes than all but 2 of the starters, so we’ll be seeing quite a bit of him. He’s pretty much subs in for both the 2 and the 3, which is why he’s out there a lot. The other 2 bench guys are big men: #9 F Khani Rooths a 6-8 205lb Freshman averaging 4.1 points, 3.3 rebounds, and shooting 18.2% from 3 and #13 Frank Anselem-Ibe a 6-10 220lb 5th Year Senior who isn’t playing or contributing much.

I fully expect Louisville to be playing this game like their hair is on fire. As we heard from Terrence Edwards this week, this is their biggest game of the season and if Louisville fans had to pick one win for the season, this is it. He even said playing against UK is the only reason he signed with UL. They will be giving maximum effort all night. If we had our entire team, I’d say just run those 10 guys out there and wear these guys out, but if we’re missing Lamont Butler, I don’t think that would be an advisable strategy. UK has a bunch of better shooters than Louisville has, but that won’t stop the Cards from firing up 30+ from downtown. If those threes are falling at any decent percentage, it could be a tough game. If UK’s threes are falling like we know they can, it could become a dominant win for UK. What will happen? Haslametrics predicts UK 84 UL 70. EvanMiya projects UK 83 UL 70. Bart Torvik says UK 84- UL 73. KenPom predicts UK 83-UL 72. DRatings has UK winning 87-79.

My prediction: Kentucky 90 UofL 80

 

[Tprinceuk]

I've watched them a couple times and I feel if Butler plays we will win comfortably, I also hadn't realized this is their first true road game so you would think that would be in our favor also.

 

[Bkocats]

I’m actually a little concerned
We all know how opposing teams tend to shoot lights out from three at Rupp, and right now our three point shooting has been not so great
Hopefully our guys will come out on fire and stay that way

 

[westerncat]

I hope our 3 point shooting percentage raises a lot tomorrow. I want to run them out of the gym. Can't stand UL or any of their fans. I don't know who is worse UL or Duke.

 

[will1976]

Thanks for the write up!

 

[MdWIldcat55]

I don't think some Kentucky fans understand this is a game Louisville is capable of winning -- unlike recent years -- with Kentucky dealing with injuries to both true PGs.

I know Mark Pope has tried to convey to the players that they have to match Louisville's intensity and I hope the players were listening. I watched the Cards blow out Indiana. And I watched them lead Duke for 3/4s of the game.

Play like they did in the second halves of Duke and Gonzaga and the Cats will be fine. Play like they did against Colgate for most of the game after going up 17-0 and we'll be sweating it out.

 

[MegaBlue05]

I’m actually a little concerned
We all know how opposing teams tend to shoot lights out from three at Rupp, and right now our three point shooting has been not so great
Hopefully our guys will come out on fire and stay that way

Looking at those numbers I get a bad feeling that one of those guys shooting in the teens percentage wise will make 3-4 given how randoms tend to light up the nets at Rupp.

Hopefully we close out better on shooters and contest all outside shots.

 

[Bluesnky]

Man. Kelsey really needs a win here. They are 6-4 and unlikely to make the tournament. They lose seven seniors and don’t have much more to sell recruits/portal players than they did last year. No commitments for next year, although they will have a healthy Aly Khalifa coming off a redshirt year. This roster was hyped by the media coming into the year and they don’t have a lot to show for it.

 

[Bkocats]

I don't think some Kentucky fans understand this is a game Louisville is capable of winning -- unlike recent years -- with Kentucky dealing with injuries to both true PGs.

I know Mark Pope has tried to convey to the players that they have to match Louisville's intensity and I hope the players were listening. I watched the Cards blow out Indiana. And I watched them lead Duke for 3/4s of the game.

Play like they did in the second halves of Duke and Gonzaga and the Cats will be fine. Play like they did against Colgate for most of the game after going up 17-0 and we'll be sweating it out.

Exactly my concerns
We should run them out of the gym with what we have and our coach.
But we HAVE been playing rather lackadaisically come out intense and stay that way and we should be good

 

[Dontworryboutit23]

Louisville Cardinals
Conference: Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC)
Head Coach: Pat Kelsey overall (267-126)
Winthrop Eagles (189-95) (Big South)
Charleston Cougars (75-27) (Coastal Athletic)
1st Year at Louisville (6-4)

Schedule/Results (6-4)
11/4 vs MOREHEAD St W, 93-45
11/9 vs 12 TENNESSEE L, 77-55
11/19 vs BELLARMINE W, 100-68
11/22 vs WINTHROP W, 76-61
11/27 vs 14 Indiana (neutral) W, 89-61
11/28 vs West Virginia (neutral) W, 79-70
11/29 vs Oklahoma (neutral) L, 69-64
12/3 vs 23 OLE MISS L, 86-63
12/8 vs 9 DUKE L, 76-65
12/11 vs UTEP W, 77-74
12/14 @ 5 Kentucky: Rupp Arena (20,500)

Game Info: December 14 in Lexington, KY
Game time: 5:15pm EST
TV: ESPN (Dan Shulman & Jay Bilas)
Spectrum Cable: Channel 28 DISH Network: Channel 140
DirecTV: Channel 206 U-verse: Channel 1602
Radio: UK Sports Network (Tom Leach & Jack Givens)
Radio Over the air: WLAP-AM 630, WBUL-FM 98.1
Satellite radio: XM Channel 190, Internet Channel 960
Louisville broadcast: XM Channel 371

Probable Starters
#24 G Chucky Hepburn 6-2 190 Sr 14.1pts, 3.3reb, 4.8ast, 3.2stl, 32.6% 3fg
#6 G Reyne Smith 6-2 190 Sr 12.1pts, 3.1reb, 37.1% 3fg
#1 G J’Vonne Hadley 6-6 215 5th Yr Sr 9.8pts, 8.0reb, 1.8ast, 25.0% 3fg
#0 F James Scott 6-11 220 So 7.0pts, 5.8reb, 1.1ast, 0.0% 3fg
#93 F Noah Waterman 6-11 230 6th Ye Sr 6.2pts, 4.1reb, 1.0blk, 22.0% 3fg

Key Reserves
#5 G Terrence Edwards Jr. 6-6 205 5th Yr Sr 12.9pts, 3.2reb, 2.1ast, 26.1% 3fg
#9 F Khani Rooths 6-8 205 Fr 4.1pts, 3.3reb, 18.2% 3fg
#13 C Frank Anselem-Ibe 6-10 220 5th Yr Sr 0.3pts, 1.0reb, 0.0% 3fg
OUT #7 F Kasean Pryor 6-10 225 5th Yr Sr 12.0pts, 6.1reb, 2.1ast, 1.6stl, 15.2% 3fg

Team Statistics
Points per game 76.0
Points allowed 68.1
Scoring margin +7.9
Field goal pct .428
FG% allowed .422
3-point FG pct .282
3FG% allowed .329
Free throw pct .707
Rebounds per game 38.7
Rebounds allowed 34.7
Rebounding margin +4.0
Assists per game 13.6
Turnovers per game 13.3
Turnovers forced 15.6
Turnover margin +2.2
Assist/turnover ratio 1.0
Steals per game 8.0
Blocks per game 3.4

KenPom Analysis
Overall rating: #59
Offense: #79
Defense: #42
Best Numbers
Off 2pt%: #13
Def Non-Steal TO%: #24
Off Rebounding %: #35
Worst Numbers
Off 3pt%: #341 (27%)
Off Turnover%: #224
Def 3pt%: #213 (33.9%)
Off Effective FG%: #205

Analysis: Well, for many the biggest game of the year is here. It’s Kentucky. It’s Louisville. It’s ESPN. It’s Shulman and Bilas (and Rupp Arena soft serve ice cream will get a cameo). The state of Kentucky’s 2 most historic teams and 2 of the greatest programs in men’s college basketball. UK comes in sporting a #5 ranking in the latest AP poll, with a 9-1 overall record, with huge neutral site wins over Duke and Gonzaga. Louisville comes in with a 6-4 record with big neutral site wins over Indiana and West Virginia but 20+ point losses to Tennessee and Ole Miss, an 11pt loss to Duke and a close loss to Oklahoma on a neutral court. I didn’t realize it before I started preparing this, but this will be this Louisville team’s first true road game of the season.

Both teams have an injury or two that are significant. As we know, the Cats are definitely missing PG Kerr Kriisa for this game and could potentially be missing Lamont Butler if he’s not quite healed from his ankle injury. We’re all hoping he will be back for this game. Meanwhile, Louisville has lost starting forward Kasean Pryor a 6-10 225 5th Year Senior who was averaging 12.0 points, 6.1 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.6 steals to a season-ending ACL injury. They are also missing Aboubacar Traore (broken arm) and Koren Johnson (shoulder). Traore was a starter to begin the season, though Johnson was not quite as important to the team. The Cardinals only played a total of 8 players in their last game versus UTEP, which they won 77-74, and big man Anselem-Ibe only played 5 minutes. So, it’s basically a 7-man rotation.

Those hoping for an absolute slaughter of Louisville in Rupp on Saturday afternoon may be disappointed, though we’re all hoping for domination. Even without these injured players, the Cardinals have been competitive against most everyone, Tennessee and Ole Miss not withstanding. Even against Duke, and without the players I’ve mentioned here, they still were competitive. In fact, they had a lead until about the 8-minute mark in that game when Duke finally began to assert itself and pushed a lead to double-digits and held a comfortable lead to the end.

Looking at Louisville, one thing that jumps out is that play hard on defensive every time down the floor and on offense they will shoot threes all day. They are actually accomplishing what Mark Pope wants UK to do. They’re averaging 30 threes a game. (31.8 to be exact). Problem is, they’re making less than 9 threes a game and shooting 27%. That makes them a very inefficient team. But the problem is, if those threes are falling, they are a threat.

Looking at personnel, the top scorer on the team is their point guard #24 Chucky Hepburn, a 6-2 190lb Senior averaging 14.3 points, 3.3 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 3.2 steals, and shooting 33.3% from 3. He is leading the team in point, assists, and steals. He does a little bit of everything for the team. His backcourt mate is #6 shooting guard Reyne Smith, a 6-2 190lb Senior averaging 12.1 points, 3.1 rebounds, and shooting 37.1% from 3. He has shot 81 threes on the season, which is nearly double the number of attempts of anyone else on the team. The small forward is #1 J’Vonne Hadley a 6-6 215lb 5th Year Senior averaging 9.8 points, 8.0 rebounds, 1.8 assists, and shoots 25.0% from 3. Down low, the Cards have a pair of 6-11 forwards starting. #0 James Scott is a 6-11 220lb Sophomore averaging 7.0 points, 5.8 rebounds, 1.1 assists, and doesn’t shoot threes. The other starter was a player for Mark Pope last season at BYU. It’s #93 Noah Waterman a 6-11 230lb 6th Year Senior averaging 6.2 points, 4.1 rebounds, 1.0 block, and shooting 22.0% from 3.

From the bench, the top scorer is #5 Guard Terrence Edwards Jr. a 6-6 205lb 5th Year Senior averaging 12.9 points, 3.2 rebounds, 2.1 assists, and shooting 26.1% from 3. Honestly, Edwards is averaging more minutes than all but 2 of the starters, so we’ll be seeing quite a bit of him. He’s pretty much subs in for both the 2 and the 3, which is why he’s out there a lot. The other 2 bench guys are big men: #9 F Khani Rooths a 6-8 205lb Freshman averaging 4.1 points, 3.3 rebounds, and shooting 18.2% from 3 and #13 Frank Anselem-Ibe a 6-10 220lb 5th Year Senior who isn’t playing or contributing much.

I fully expect Louisville to be playing this game like their hair is on fire. As we heard from Terrence Edwards this week, this is their biggest game of the season and Louisville fans only care had to pick one win for the season, this is it. HE even said playing against UK is the only reason he signed with UL. They will be giving maximum effort all night. If we had our entire team, I’d say just run those 10 guys out there and wear these guys out, but if we’re missing Lamont Butler, I don’t think that would be an advisable strategy. UK has a bunch of better shooters than Louisville has, but that won’t stop the Cards from firing up 30+ from downtown. If those threes are falling at any decent percentage, it could be a tough game. If UK’s threes are falling like we know they can, it could become a dominant win for UK. What will happen? Haslametrics predicts UK 84 UL 70. EvanMiya projects UK 83 UL 70. Bart Torvik says UK 84- UL 73. KenPom predicts UK 83-UL 72. DRatings has UK winning 87-79.

My prediction: Kentucky 90 UofL 80

The desperation Louisville is gonna play with tomorrow is why I think this game is a lot closer than a lot are expecting. Ultimately I think Louisville gets in some foul trouble and starts to get tired. Thats why the cats get a win by 8, 82-74. Good job on the scouting report as always.

 

[rivercatinfl]

Looking at those numbers I get a bad feeling that one of those guys shooting in the teens percentage wise will make 3-4 given how randoms tend to light up the nets at Rupp.

Hopefully we close out better on shooters and contest all outside shots.

Their guards are quick and can penetrate but that's about it. It's going to be interesting how we play them on defense.
We don't want them to get beer muscles if we can help it.

 

[IL Wildcat]

The desperation Louisville is gonna play with tomorrow is why I think this game is a lot closer than a lot are expecting. Ultimately I think Louisville gets in some foul trouble and starts to get tired. Thats why the cats get a win by 8, 82-74. Good job on the scouting report as always.

Yeah, I agree. They will be playing desperate. The thing that gives me solace here is that Pope understands this rivalry very well and he knows how important it is to the fans and to the Commonwealth. There is no way he lets the team take this game lightly. Louisville will be desperate but our team will be very focused.

 

[Cold Stout Beer]

I hope our 3 point shooting percentage raises a lot tomorrow. I want to run them out of the gym. Can't stand UL or any of their fans. I don't know who is worse UL or Duke.

Im so glad I don’t live near any. In sure they are loud and obnoxious after the football outcome and a new basketball coach.

 

[megablue]

Another great scouting report … Thanks !!
For me, if Butler does not play, a major concern is how Robinson handles what I suspect will be tight on-ball pressure defense by Hepburn. Secondarily, how we match up inside with what I suspect will be physical tenacity. I think we win 88-74 and I do not expect Butler to play much, if at all. GO CATS !!!

 

[hoggwildcat]

Yeah, I agree. They will be playing desperate. The thing that gives me solace here is that Pope understands this rivalry very well and he knows how important it is to the fans and to the Co.monwealth. There is no way he lets the team take this game lightly. Louisville will be desperate but our team will be very focused.

UL sure didn't look to desperate against UTEP

 

[Fox2monk]

Looking at those numbers I get a bad feeling that one of those guys shooting in the teens percentage wise will make 3-4 given how randoms tend to light up the nets at Rupp.

Hopefully we close out better on shooters and contest all outside shots.

Defend the 3 and drive the ball this game. They have little front court depth now. We need to try and get Hepburn in trouble. He is the head of the snake on both ends. Without him they will be toast.

 

[megablue]

Defend the 3 and drive the ball this game. They have little front court depth now. We need to try and get Hepburn in trouble. He is the head of the snake on both ends. Without him they will be toast.

I agree … he is quick, pesky and tenacious, but can be very erratic. Getting him in early foul trouble would be great for us.

 

[BigBlueFanGA]

Louisville Cardinals
Conference: Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC)
Head Coach: Pat Kelsey overall (267-126)
Winthrop Eagles (189-95) (Big South)
Charleston Cougars (75-27) (Coastal Athletic)
1st Year at Louisville (6-4)

Schedule/Results (6-4)
11/4 vs MOREHEAD St W, 93-45
11/9 vs 12 TENNESSEE L, 77-55
11/19 vs BELLARMINE W, 100-68
11/22 vs WINTHROP W, 76-61
11/27 vs 14 Indiana (neutral) W, 89-61
11/28 vs West Virginia (neutral) W, 79-70
11/29 vs Oklahoma (neutral) L, 69-64
12/3 vs 23 OLE MISS L, 86-63
12/8 vs 9 DUKE L, 76-65
12/11 vs UTEP W, 77-74
12/14 @ 5 Kentucky: Rupp Arena (20,500)

Game Info: December 14 in Lexington, KY
Game time: 5:15pm EST
TV: ESPN (Dan Shulman & Jay Bilas)
Spectrum Cable: Channel 28 DISH Network: Channel 140
DirecTV: Channel 206 U-verse: Channel 1602
Radio: UK Sports Network (Tom Leach & Jack Givens)
Radio Over the air: WLAP-AM 630, WBUL-FM 98.1
Satellite radio: XM Channel 190, Internet Channel 960
Louisville broadcast: XM Channel 371

Probable Starters
#24 G Chucky Hepburn 6-2 190 Sr 14.1pts, 3.3reb, 4.8ast, 3.2stl, 32.6% 3fg
#6 G Reyne Smith 6-2 190 Sr 12.1pts, 3.1reb, 37.1% 3fg
#1 G J’Vonne Hadley 6-6 215 5th Yr Sr 9.8pts, 8.0reb, 1.8ast, 25.0% 3fg
#0 F James Scott 6-11 220 So 7.0pts, 5.8reb, 1.1ast, 0.0% 3fg
#93 F Noah Waterman 6-11 230 6th Ye Sr 6.2pts, 4.1reb, 1.0blk, 22.0% 3fg

Key Reserves
#5 G Terrence Edwards Jr. 6-6 205 5th Yr Sr 12.9pts, 3.2reb, 2.1ast, 26.1% 3fg
#9 F Khani Rooths 6-8 205 Fr 4.1pts, 3.3reb, 18.2% 3fg
#13 C Frank Anselem-Ibe 6-10 220 5th Yr Sr 0.3pts, 1.0reb, 0.0% 3fg
OUT #7 F Kasean Pryor 6-10 225 5th Yr Sr 12.0pts, 6.1reb, 2.1ast, 1.6stl, 15.2% 3fg

Team Statistics
Points per game 76.0
Points allowed 68.1
Scoring margin +7.9
Field goal pct .428
FG% allowed .422
3-point FG pct .282
3FG% allowed .329
Free throw pct .707
Rebounds per game 38.7
Rebounds allowed 34.7
Rebounding margin +4.0
Assists per game 13.6
Turnovers per game 13.3
Turnovers forced 15.6
Turnover margin +2.2
Assist/turnover ratio 1.0
Steals per game 8.0
Blocks per game 3.4

KenPom Analysis
Overall rating: #59
Offense: #79
Defense: #42
Best Numbers
Off 2pt%: #13
Def Non-Steal TO%: #24
Off Rebounding %: #35
Worst Numbers
Off 3pt%: #341 (27%)
Off Turnover%: #224
Def 3pt%: #213 (33.9%)
Off Effective FG%: #205

Analysis: Well, for many the biggest game of the year is here. It’s Kentucky. It’s Louisville. It’s ESPN. It’s Shulman and Bilas (and Rupp Arena soft serve ice cream will get a cameo). The state of Kentucky’s 2 most historic teams and 2 of the greatest programs in men’s college basketball. UK comes in sporting a #5 ranking in the latest AP poll, with a 9-1 overall record, with huge neutral site wins over Duke and Gonzaga. Louisville comes in with a 6-4 record with big neutral site wins over Indiana and West Virginia but 20+ point losses to Tennessee and Ole Miss, an 11pt loss to Duke and a close loss to Oklahoma on a neutral court. I didn’t realize it before I started preparing this, but this will be this Louisville team’s first true road game of the season.

Both teams have an injury or two that are significant. As we know, the Cats are definitely missing PG Kerr Kriisa for this game and could potentially be missing Lamont Butler if he’s not quite healed from his ankle injury. We’re all hoping he will be back for this game. Meanwhile, Louisville has lost starting forward Kasean Pryor a 6-10 225 5th Year Senior who was averaging 12.0 points, 6.1 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.6 steals to a season-ending ACL injury. They are also missing Aboubacar Traore (broken arm) and Koren Johnson (shoulder). Traore was a starter to begin the season, though Johnson was not quite as important to the team. The Cardinals only played a total of 8 players in their last game versus UTEP, which they won 77-74, and big man Anselem-Ibe only played 5 minutes. So, it’s basically a 7-man rotation.

Those hoping for an absolute slaughter of Louisville in Rupp on Saturday afternoon may be disappointed, though we’re all hoping for domination. Even without these injured players, the Cardinals have been competitive against most everyone, Tennessee and Ole Miss not withstanding. Even against Duke, and without the players I’ve mentioned here, they still were competitive. In fact, they had a lead until about the 8-minute mark in that game when Duke finally began to assert itself and pushed a lead to double-digits and held a comfortable lead to the end.

Looking at Louisville, one thing that jumps out is that play hard on defensive every time down the floor and on offense they will shoot threes all day. They are actually accomplishing what Mark Pope wants UK to do. They’re averaging 30 threes a game. (31.8 to be exact). Problem is, they’re making less than 9 threes a game and shooting 27%. That makes them a very inefficient team. But the problem is, if those threes are falling, they are a threat.

Looking at personnel, the top scorer on the team is their point guard #24 Chucky Hepburn, a 6-2 190lb Senior averaging 14.3 points, 3.3 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 3.2 steals, and shooting 33.3% from 3. He is leading the team in point, assists, and steals. He does a little bit of everything for the team. His backcourt mate is #6 shooting guard Reyne Smith, a 6-2 190lb Senior averaging 12.1 points, 3.1 rebounds, and shooting 37.1% from 3. He has shot 81 threes on the season, which is nearly double the number of attempts of anyone else on the team. The small forward is #1 J’Vonne Hadley a 6-6 215lb 5th Year Senior averaging 9.8 points, 8.0 rebounds, 1.8 assists, and shoots 25.0% from 3. Down low, the Cards have a pair of 6-11 forwards starting. #0 James Scott is a 6-11 220lb Sophomore averaging 7.0 points, 5.8 rebounds, 1.1 assists, and doesn’t shoot threes. The other starter was a player for Mark Pope last season at BYU. It’s #93 Noah Waterman a 6-11 230lb 6th Year Senior averaging 6.2 points, 4.1 rebounds, 1.0 block, and shooting 22.0% from 3.

From the bench, the top scorer is #5 Guard Terrence Edwards Jr. a 6-6 205lb 5th Year Senior averaging 12.9 points, 3.2 rebounds, 2.1 assists, and shooting 26.1% from 3. Honestly, Edwards is averaging more minutes than all but 2 of the starters, so we’ll be seeing quite a bit of him. He’s pretty much subs in for both the 2 and the 3, which is why he’s out there a lot. The other 2 bench guys are big men: #9 F Khani Rooths a 6-8 205lb Freshman averaging 4.1 points, 3.3 rebounds, and shooting 18.2% from 3 and #13 Frank Anselem-Ibe a 6-10 220lb 5th Year Senior who isn’t playing or contributing much.

I fully expect Louisville to be playing this game like their hair is on fire. As we heard from Terrence Edwards this week, this is their biggest game of the season and if Louisville fans had to pick one win for the season, this is it. He even said playing against UK is the only reason he signed with UL. They will be giving maximum effort all night. If we had our entire team, I’d say just run those 10 guys out there and wear these guys out, but if we’re missing Lamont Butler, I don’t think that would be an advisable strategy. UK has a bunch of better shooters than Louisville has, but that won’t stop the Cards from firing up 30+ from downtown. If those threes are falling at any decent percentage, it could be a tough game. If UK’s threes are falling like we know they can, it could become a dominant win for UK. What will happen? Haslametrics predicts UK 84 UL 70. EvanMiya projects UK 83 UL 70. Bart Torvik says UK 84- UL 73. KenPom predicts UK 83-UL 72. DRatings has UK winning 87-79.

My prediction: Kentucky 90 UofL 80

A caveat...UL shot way better than the norm early in the game and Duke acted flat coming off the big win vs Auburn. Eventually UL's terrible shooting returned and Duke woke up. I think you're giving UL far too much credit for that game. This game is more likely to be a slaughter than a nail biter.

 

[Digger-Cat]

We need our shooters to start hitting shots. The poor shooting is what is causing a lot of hand wringing by UK fans.
I'd bet my house on at least 2 UL players hitting every 3 they shoot for long stretches. We all know it's going to happen, our guys need to start hitting too.
UL is a poor 3pt defensive team and if they try to sell out on defending the 3, we need to burn them in the paint with Carr and Williams.

The poor outside shooting has gone on long enough, it's time to get on track there.

 

[Crums Bald Spot]

Their PG, Hepburn, is a player and can disrupt the game on O and D. You lock him down, it's over. That's why having a healthy Butler would equal a blowout. I am not expecting Butler to play and even if he does, not be 100%. So we'll need Oweh to step up on D and really lock in on Hepburn.

As long as the don't suddenly become Golden State from 3, we should win going away. The rest of their line up is pretty unassuming and Waterman is absolute garbage. Carr is going to work him.

 

[Bluesnky]

Defend the 3 and drive the ball this game. They have little front court depth now. We need to try and get Hepburn in trouble. He is the head of the snake on both ends. Without him they will be toast.

I’ll do my part and frame him for a bank job.

 

[Oldbluefart]

Having to work with many UL fans, I watch parts of many of their games so I can participate in conversations with them.
UL is streaky. They play hard, shoot the hell out of threes and that can carry you only so far.
I am no way in the class of IL Wildcat in scouting but if UK pounds the ball inside, Car, Williams, Garrison will have nice games. Mix in Oweth with his overall game, UL will be busy and have no choice but to try and double team at times leaving our outside shooters to do their thing, hit shots.
UL guard, Hepburn is good. If Butler is healthy, Hepburn will have his hands full as will Butler. No Hepburn and UL is toast.
Just got to come to play for 40 minutes and all will be good in Big Blue land

 

[UKSanders]

Their PG, Hepburn, is a player and can disrupt the game on O and D. You lock him down, it's over. That's why having a healthy Butler would equal a blowout. I am not expecting Butler to play and even if he does, not be 100%. So we'll need Oweh to step up on D and really lock in on Hepburn.

As long as the don't suddenly become Golden State from 3, we should win going away. The rest of their line up is pretty unassuming and Waterman is absolute garbage. Carr is going to work him.

Not sure what’s going on with Waterman, but he is one that concerns me this game. As the 5 position, he is a career 37% 3pt shooter, with his best season of just over 50% (38/72).

 

[Villecard502]

Yeah, I agree. They will be playing desperate. The thing that gives me solace here is that Pope understands this rivalry very well and he knows how important it is to the fans and to the Co.monwealth. There is no way he lets the team take this game lightly. Louisville will be desperate but our team will be very focused.

I hope we don't play desperate....with 7 guys we'll run out of gas ever faster;

Unfortunately I don't see us being very competitive in this game. Hepburn is so so good but plays aggressive defense and has gotten in some foul trouble. I see him picking up his second foul mid way thru 1st half. Watterman will continue to kill us by doing stupid stuff and going 0-5 from three.

I feel like UK will come out hot for a change....hit like 13,14 threes while UL will stay cold and finish with 5 or 6. I wish we had Pryor, Traore, and Johnson but we don't. 85-63 Cats.

Good luck rest of season

 

[chroix]

Rough first road game. That’s not great scheduling.

 

[Crums Bald Spot]

Not sure what’s going on with Waterman, but he is one that concerns me this game. As the 5 position, he is a career 37% 3pt shooter, with his best season of just over 50% (38/72).

He has the potential to get hot. But we also have a few guys who are due to pick it up from 3 - Almonor, Carr, Jaxon - though he's picked it up recently, and Oweh have all struggled more than I would have expected. Hoping 1 or more of those guys catch fire to help Brea.

 

[UKWildcats1987]

They have lost to the two sec teams they played by 20 plus each.

 

[UKSanders]

He has the potential to get hot. But we also have a few guys who are due to pick it up from 3 - Almonor, Carr, Jaxon - though he's picked it up recently, and Oweh have all struggled more than I would have expected. Hoping 1 or more of those guys catch fire to help Brea.

Yeah, I agree the Cats have a 3-4 guys who could definitely get hot. I was just noticing Waterman has been shooting significantly well below his career average. I could see Amari and/or Garrison not closing out well, and his having a couple of clean looks allowing him to be the guy no one expected to give UL a few 3s thereby inspiring the Cards to keep it close.

 

[Villecard502]

Yeah, I agree the Cats have a 3-4 guys who could definitely get hot. I was just noticing Waterman has been shooting significantly well below his career average. I could see Amari and/or Garrison not closing out well, and his having a couple of clean looks allowing him to be the guy no one expected to give UL a few 3s thereby inspiring the Cards to keep it close.

There might be a guy that gets hot but I can PROMISE you it won’t be Watterman. You’re better off leaving open and playing 5 on 4 with everyone else. It’s amazing how bad he is. So so frustrating! But i guarantee you he throws up atleast 5 threes today anyhow

 

[Fox2monk]

I hope we don't play desperate....with 7 guys we'll run out of gas ever faster;

Unfortunately I don't see us being very competitive in this game. Hepburn is so so good but plays aggressive defense and has gotten in some foul trouble. I see him picking up his second foul mid way thru 1st half. Watterman will continue to kill us by doing stupid stuff and going 0-5 from three.

I feel like UK will come out hot for a change....hit like 13,14 threes while UL will stay cold and finish with 5 or 6. I wish we had Pryor, Traore, and Johnson but we don't. 85-63 Cats.

Good luck rest of season

I’m worried that he will cause a lot of issues if Butler doesn’t play. He’s a regally good defender. Obviously the Cards aren’t deep and that helps but if they shoot well they can compete with anyone. Obviously I think we win but I don’t think it will be a blowout. Hope I am wrong.

 

[Fox2monk]

There might be a guy that gets hot but I can PROMISE you it won’t be Watterman. You’re better off leaving open and playing 5 on 4 with everyone else. It’s amazing how bad he is. So so frustrating! But i guarantee you he throws up atleast 5 threes today anyhow

I’ve seen too many bad shooters light Rupp up over the years to believe that totally lol.

 

[Fox2monk]

He has the potential to get hot. But we also have a few guys who are due to pick it up from 3 - Almonor, Carr, Jaxon - though he's picked it up recently, and Oweh have all struggled more than I would have expected. Hoping 1 or more of those guys catch fire to help Brea.

Almonor could really do well this game, he’s due to hit 3-4 of em. So is everyone else.

 

[NociHTTP]

I have faith that Pope has addressed the mental letdowns, and that we send the birdies chirping back to where they came from.

 

[Villecard502]

I’ve seen too many bad shooters light Rupp up over the years to believe that totally lol.

Ha! I get it but you’ve never watched Watterman!

 

[Fox2monk]

I have faith that Pope has addressed the mental letdowns, and that we send the birdies chirping back to where they came from.

At least Ville Card doesn’t seem to be douchy like most fans from other teams that come here.

 

[Villecard502]

At least Ville Card doesn’t seem to be douchy like most fans from other teams that come here.

Most fans aren’t like that at most schools…..it’s just they are usually the loudest!

 

[NociHTTP]

At least Ville Card doesn’t seem to be douchy like most fans from other teams that come here.

I don't remember him, but I see him in this thread I was talking about the team and the fans at the game.

 

[Fox2monk]

Most fans aren’t like that at most schools…..it’s just they are usually the loudest!

We have had plenty over the years who act fine until they win lol. Or ones like Denimvest who act all friendly and immediately go to other sites and talk crap.

 

[NociHTTP]

We have had plenty over the years who act fine until they win lol. Or ones like Denimvest who act all friendly and immediately go to other sites and talk crap.

Does he talk crap about our site?

 

[Villecard502]

Well I was right about Watterman jacking a bunch of threes…..just didn’t think he would shoot 5 in first half. I HATE being right