Georgia State Panthers
Conference: Sun Belt
Head Coach: Jonas Hayes
Began as Interim Head Coach at Xavier (won NIT in 2021-22)
3rd Season at Georgia State since 2022-23 (32-41)
Schedule (4-3)
11/04 BALL ST. W 71-66
11/08 at Mississippi St. L 66-101
11/13 at Jacksonville St. L 67-72
11/18 TOCCOA FALLS W 106-66
11/22 N.C. CENTRAL W 93-79
11/26 vs Austin Peay L 50-62
11/27 vs Tulsa W 74-71
11/29 at Kentucky (Rupp Arena: 20,545)
Game Info:
At Lexington, KY: 7pm EST
TV: SEC Network (Announcers: John Schriffen and Richard Hendrix)
Online: ESPN+, ESPN App
Radio: UK Sports Radio Net (Announcers: Tom Leach and Jack Givens)
Probable Starters
#7 F Zarique Nutter 6-7 210 Sr 16.2pts, 5.6reb, 3.2ast, 14.3% 3fg
#33 F Nick McMullen 6-8 235 Sr 9.5pts, 10.7reb, 1.3ast, 16.7% 3fg
#4 C Cesare Edwards 6-10 235 Sr 9.8pts, 6.2reb, 1.2ast, 66.7% 3fg
#11 G Toneari Lane 6-5 205 Sr 16.2pts, 2.2reb, 1.2ast, 40.8% 3fg
#22 G Malachi Brown 6-1 175 So 9.0pts, 3.7reb, 3.5ast, 36.4% 3fg
Key Reserves
#10 G Jelani Hamilton 6-6 205 Rs-Fr 9.7pts, 2.7reb, 45.8% 3fg
#21 F Clash Peters 6-9 230 Fr 3.3pts, 5.3reb, 0.0% 3fg
#1 G Malik Ferguson 6-4 190 So 1.6pts, 1.2reb, 1.2ast, 0.0% 3fg
#12 F “DK” Manyiel Dut 7-0 210 Rs-Fr 4.0pts, 3.5reb, 50.0% 3fg
KenPom Analysis
Best Numbers
Offensive Block%: #28 (they don’t get blocked)
Defensive FTA/FGA: #46 (they don’t send folks to the line)
Offensive Rebound%: #105
Worst Numbers:
Defensive TO%: #351 (they don’t force TOs)
2pt FG%: #268
Effective FG%: #250
FT%: #231
Team Statistics
Points Per Game 75.3
Points allowed 73.9
Scoring Margin 1.4
Field Goal Pct .444
FG% allowed .433
3PT FG Pct .338
3FG% allowed .324
FT Pct .688
Rebounds Per Game 41.0
Rebounds allowed 34.3
Rebounds Margin 6.7
Assists Per Game 12.1
Turnovers Per Game 12.4
Assist/Turnover Ratio 1.0
Steals Per Game 5.6
Blocks Per Game 2.1
Analysis: Kentucky welcomes the Georgia State Panthers to Rupp Arena for a day after Thanksgiving matchup hoping stay unbeaten at 7-0 at the end of the day. Georgia State will be playing its 3rd game in 4 days, coming fresh off a trip to Jacksonville, FL and 2 neutral site games against Austin Peay and Tulsa on Tuesday and Wednesday. They get Thanksgiving Day off before returning to action against UK in Rupp. Georgia State split those games, losing to Austin Peay 50-62 but beating Tulsa 74-71, which is their best win by the numbers. On the season, Georgia State is 4-3 but they don’t have a win over any team rated in KenPom’s top 200. They got whipped by Miss State back on November 8th in Starkville by a score of 66-101. This resume lands Georgia St at #220 overall on KenPom.
You may remember the Georgia State head coach Jonas Hayes for his head coaching start back in 2022 where he took over for Xavier Head Coach Travis Steele at the end of that season. He took over the Musketeers after the regular season ended and led them to an NIT title as their interim head coach. When Xavier decided not to permanently promote Hayes (instead re-hiring Sean Miller), he took the head coaching position at Georgia State on April 6, 2022, where he now enters his 3rd season with the Panthers.
Looking at the numbers, the first thing that jumps out at me is that Georgia State struggles to make shots. They struggle from 2 (only making 47.1% from the field), they struggle from 3 (only making 32.7%) and they even struggle from the FT line (only making 68.9%). So, it’s no surprise they rank #250 in the nation (according to KenPom) in effective FG%. Now, we’ve heard something similar just recently, about Western KY. But the difference in this game is that Georgia State’s defense isn’t much better than their offense. Some of their bad numbers are due to a strategy preference, in my opinion. These guys do not take any chances on defense. They don’t go for steals or blocks. They don’t even create turnovers much at all, which is the reason their defensive numbers are so bad. They are pretty good at keeping people from getting to the line for this same reason. They don’t foul much because their goal is to just stay in front and take no risks.
From a personnel standpoint, Georgia State’s best scorers are shooting guard #11 Toneari Lane, a 6-5 205lb Senior averaging 16.2 points, 2.2 rebounds, 1.2 assists and shooting 40.8% from 3, and small forward #7 Zarique Nutter, a 6-7 210lb Senior who averages 16.2 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 3.2 assists. Lane shoots the threes and Nutter drives and dishes, but isn’t much of a 3pt threat. The leading rebounder on the team is #33 Nick McMullen, a 6-8 235lb Senior forward averaging 9.5 points, 10.7 rebounds. He doesn’t shoot 3s, but he’s nearly averaging a double-double. The center is #4 Cesare Edwards, a 6-10 235lb Senior averaging 9.8 points, 6.2 rebounds, 1.2 assists and shooting 66.7% from 3 (2-3 on the season). The final starter is the point guard #22 Malachi Brown, a 6-1 175lb Sophomore averaging 9.0 points, 3.7 rebounds, 3.5 assists, and shooting 36.4% from 3.
From the bench, the biggest scoring threat is #10 Jelani Hamilton, a 6-6 205lb Redshirt Freshman averaging 9.7 points 2.7 rebounds and shooting 45.8% from 3. He’s coming in to shoot and 27 of his 47 attempts are from 3. He has the 2nd most 3pt attempts on the team, behind only Lane. After those first 6, there aren’t many players scoring much. Back-up big man #21 Clash Peters is a 6-9 230lb Freshman who averages 3.3 points, 5.3 rebounds and doesn’t shoot threes. #1 Malik Ferguson is a 6-4 190 sophomore guard averaging 1.6 points, 1.2 rebounds, and 1.2 assists and is 0-9 from 3. #12 F “DK” Manyiel Dut is a 7ft 210lb Redshirt Freshman who has only played in 2 games, scored 8 total points on the season and is only on this report because he’s a 7-footer and his name Dhiaukue. He has made 1 of 2 threes on the season, which was in Ga State’s game against Taccoa Falls College which is a Division 2 National Christian College school. He probably won’t see the floor against UK.
What to expect: This will be a blow-out for UK. According to the numbers, Georgia State and Bucknell are rated about the same, though Ga State is slightly better. How good will Georgia St be playing their 3rd game in 4 days with 6 primary scorers? The panthers want to get to the rim, similar to Western KY, but they’re not making many of those shots. UK’s defense will cause serious struggles for the Panthers. I expect a score similar to what Ga State got at Miss St. KenPom predicts UK 90- GSU 66, Haslametrics says UK 94-GSU 70, Bart Torvik predicts UK 93-GSU 66, and EvanMiya says UK 95-GSU 64. I think UK will be irritated at themselves after that WKU game and will come out ready to fight.
My Prediction: Kentucky 106 Georgia St 62
Conference: Sun Belt
Head Coach: Jonas Hayes
Began as Interim Head Coach at Xavier (won NIT in 2021-22)
3rd Season at Georgia State since 2022-23 (32-41)
Schedule (4-3)
11/04 BALL ST. W 71-66
11/08 at Mississippi St. L 66-101
11/13 at Jacksonville St. L 67-72
11/18 TOCCOA FALLS W 106-66
11/22 N.C. CENTRAL W 93-79
11/26 vs Austin Peay L 50-62
11/27 vs Tulsa W 74-71
11/29 at Kentucky (Rupp Arena: 20,545)
Game Info:
At Lexington, KY: 7pm EST
TV: SEC Network (Announcers: John Schriffen and Richard Hendrix)
Online: ESPN+, ESPN App
Radio: UK Sports Radio Net (Announcers: Tom Leach and Jack Givens)
Probable Starters
#7 F Zarique Nutter 6-7 210 Sr 16.2pts, 5.6reb, 3.2ast, 14.3% 3fg
#33 F Nick McMullen 6-8 235 Sr 9.5pts, 10.7reb, 1.3ast, 16.7% 3fg
#4 C Cesare Edwards 6-10 235 Sr 9.8pts, 6.2reb, 1.2ast, 66.7% 3fg
#11 G Toneari Lane 6-5 205 Sr 16.2pts, 2.2reb, 1.2ast, 40.8% 3fg
#22 G Malachi Brown 6-1 175 So 9.0pts, 3.7reb, 3.5ast, 36.4% 3fg
Key Reserves
#10 G Jelani Hamilton 6-6 205 Rs-Fr 9.7pts, 2.7reb, 45.8% 3fg
#21 F Clash Peters 6-9 230 Fr 3.3pts, 5.3reb, 0.0% 3fg
#1 G Malik Ferguson 6-4 190 So 1.6pts, 1.2reb, 1.2ast, 0.0% 3fg
#12 F “DK” Manyiel Dut 7-0 210 Rs-Fr 4.0pts, 3.5reb, 50.0% 3fg
KenPom Analysis
Best Numbers
Offensive Block%: #28 (they don’t get blocked)
Defensive FTA/FGA: #46 (they don’t send folks to the line)
Offensive Rebound%: #105
Worst Numbers:
Defensive TO%: #351 (they don’t force TOs)
2pt FG%: #268
Effective FG%: #250
FT%: #231
Team Statistics
Points Per Game 75.3
Points allowed 73.9
Scoring Margin 1.4
Field Goal Pct .444
FG% allowed .433
3PT FG Pct .338
3FG% allowed .324
FT Pct .688
Rebounds Per Game 41.0
Rebounds allowed 34.3
Rebounds Margin 6.7
Assists Per Game 12.1
Turnovers Per Game 12.4
Assist/Turnover Ratio 1.0
Steals Per Game 5.6
Blocks Per Game 2.1
Analysis: Kentucky welcomes the Georgia State Panthers to Rupp Arena for a day after Thanksgiving matchup hoping stay unbeaten at 7-0 at the end of the day. Georgia State will be playing its 3rd game in 4 days, coming fresh off a trip to Jacksonville, FL and 2 neutral site games against Austin Peay and Tulsa on Tuesday and Wednesday. They get Thanksgiving Day off before returning to action against UK in Rupp. Georgia State split those games, losing to Austin Peay 50-62 but beating Tulsa 74-71, which is their best win by the numbers. On the season, Georgia State is 4-3 but they don’t have a win over any team rated in KenPom’s top 200. They got whipped by Miss State back on November 8th in Starkville by a score of 66-101. This resume lands Georgia St at #220 overall on KenPom.
You may remember the Georgia State head coach Jonas Hayes for his head coaching start back in 2022 where he took over for Xavier Head Coach Travis Steele at the end of that season. He took over the Musketeers after the regular season ended and led them to an NIT title as their interim head coach. When Xavier decided not to permanently promote Hayes (instead re-hiring Sean Miller), he took the head coaching position at Georgia State on April 6, 2022, where he now enters his 3rd season with the Panthers.
Looking at the numbers, the first thing that jumps out at me is that Georgia State struggles to make shots. They struggle from 2 (only making 47.1% from the field), they struggle from 3 (only making 32.7%) and they even struggle from the FT line (only making 68.9%). So, it’s no surprise they rank #250 in the nation (according to KenPom) in effective FG%. Now, we’ve heard something similar just recently, about Western KY. But the difference in this game is that Georgia State’s defense isn’t much better than their offense. Some of their bad numbers are due to a strategy preference, in my opinion. These guys do not take any chances on defense. They don’t go for steals or blocks. They don’t even create turnovers much at all, which is the reason their defensive numbers are so bad. They are pretty good at keeping people from getting to the line for this same reason. They don’t foul much because their goal is to just stay in front and take no risks.
From a personnel standpoint, Georgia State’s best scorers are shooting guard #11 Toneari Lane, a 6-5 205lb Senior averaging 16.2 points, 2.2 rebounds, 1.2 assists and shooting 40.8% from 3, and small forward #7 Zarique Nutter, a 6-7 210lb Senior who averages 16.2 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 3.2 assists. Lane shoots the threes and Nutter drives and dishes, but isn’t much of a 3pt threat. The leading rebounder on the team is #33 Nick McMullen, a 6-8 235lb Senior forward averaging 9.5 points, 10.7 rebounds. He doesn’t shoot 3s, but he’s nearly averaging a double-double. The center is #4 Cesare Edwards, a 6-10 235lb Senior averaging 9.8 points, 6.2 rebounds, 1.2 assists and shooting 66.7% from 3 (2-3 on the season). The final starter is the point guard #22 Malachi Brown, a 6-1 175lb Sophomore averaging 9.0 points, 3.7 rebounds, 3.5 assists, and shooting 36.4% from 3.
From the bench, the biggest scoring threat is #10 Jelani Hamilton, a 6-6 205lb Redshirt Freshman averaging 9.7 points 2.7 rebounds and shooting 45.8% from 3. He’s coming in to shoot and 27 of his 47 attempts are from 3. He has the 2nd most 3pt attempts on the team, behind only Lane. After those first 6, there aren’t many players scoring much. Back-up big man #21 Clash Peters is a 6-9 230lb Freshman who averages 3.3 points, 5.3 rebounds and doesn’t shoot threes. #1 Malik Ferguson is a 6-4 190 sophomore guard averaging 1.6 points, 1.2 rebounds, and 1.2 assists and is 0-9 from 3. #12 F “DK” Manyiel Dut is a 7ft 210lb Redshirt Freshman who has only played in 2 games, scored 8 total points on the season and is only on this report because he’s a 7-footer and his name Dhiaukue. He has made 1 of 2 threes on the season, which was in Ga State’s game against Taccoa Falls College which is a Division 2 National Christian College school. He probably won’t see the floor against UK.
What to expect: This will be a blow-out for UK. According to the numbers, Georgia State and Bucknell are rated about the same, though Ga State is slightly better. How good will Georgia St be playing their 3rd game in 4 days with 6 primary scorers? The panthers want to get to the rim, similar to Western KY, but they’re not making many of those shots. UK’s defense will cause serious struggles for the Panthers. I expect a score similar to what Ga State got at Miss St. KenPom predicts UK 90- GSU 66, Haslametrics says UK 94-GSU 70, Bart Torvik predicts UK 93-GSU 66, and EvanMiya says UK 95-GSU 64. I think UK will be irritated at themselves after that WKU game and will come out ready to fight.
My Prediction: Kentucky 106 Georgia St 62
