However long Cal remains at UK, here is what we know (this is not a thread to discuss whether he should or shouldn't be our coach, there are about 79 of those threads right now).
1) Cal loves PGs, especially bigger ones. Yet he has had 2 small ones. But his preference it bigger ones. And this past year, Wheeler had a deficiency unrelated to his lack of height (shooting). So we usually only had 2 shooters in the game at a time. So playing 4-out or even 3-out wasn't an option, because if Wheeler or Brooks or Topping were outside the 3-pt line, the defenses didn't care (give them that shot). So it was our lack of 3 point shooting that "clogged the lanes", not our offense (although that may not have helped the matter).
2) We say Cal doesn't recruit shooters, but even though the 3pt line has moved back since his arrival, the 9 years before he came we had 3 players make 40% of their 3's (Fitch twice, Meeks once), and in his 13 seasons at UK we've had 9 guys do it (Lamb twice, Miller, Willis, Quickley, Grady, Booker, Murray, Sestina). And over those 9 years prior to Cal, UK made 34.9% of our 3's, while Cal's teams have made 35.4%. But I don't think anyone would argue, he values athletes over shooters.
3) Cal loves length, "rim protectors". And in his first 6 years he had 5 guys average 2+ Blk/gm (Davis, Noel, WCS twice, Towns), but in the past 7 seasons he has only had 1 (Richards). I think this is a critical piece in Cal's defensive strategy, guys who can erase mistakes by perimeter defenders allowing them to play tighter D outside.
4) Whether it is who he recruits, or how he develops, most of Cal's more successful players have been PG (or could play PG) or C or C/PF. Wall, Cousins, Bledsoe, Knight, Davis, Noel, Towns, Ulis, Murray, Fox, Randle, Bam, Quickley, SGA, Oscar, Tyty, Maxey, Richards. And not too many wings SG or SF or SF/PF, Lamb, MKG, Goodwin, Booker, Monk, PJ, Knox.
Next year
We don't know who will return, so we don't know what positions we need to replace. But we've already heard a few intriguing candidate names (Aimaq, Baldwin, Castleton, Broome). And we've heard that Collins is returning.
Collins certainly can provide that rim protector role, whether playing the 4 or 5, as long as he is strong enough to not get push out of the paint. I think his shooting and ability to put the ball on the floor look good enough to put him at the 4, so depending on who our 5 is we could have 2 rim protectors at a time (him and Broome could both swat 3 away per game). That would allow the guards to defend tighter, not having to worry if they got beat. Or if it was Collins & Aimaq, or Collins and Baldwin, you could have both the 4 & 5 as 3pt shooters, both roaming in and out of the paint & 3pt areas taking advantage of matchups. Or Collins and Oscar, would certainly be very good. Mix in some Toppin. and even without knowing who we will have at the 4 & 5, I think we will have a good mix of guys there. But imagine something like Aimaq/Baldwin/Collins/Toppin splitting the 4 & 5 positions.
Cal has played a number of seasons with 3 guard lineups. But it really depends on who he has. If no Sharpe and not some really strong replacement for him, I think it very possible he goes to a more traditional 3, but with 2 very good options (Hopkins, Livingston). And we think Hopkins does have some outside skills (so not like an MKG). He doesn't have to make 35-40% of his 3's, just make 30-35%, enough to be a threat, which will open up driving lanes for him. And you would then see him punish guards defending him going to the rim like Keels did for Duke. And I have hopes Livingston is a similar type player.
Wheeler is what he is. An ok change of pace PG you bring in for spurts, but not "the Guy" to run your team, simply because it is 4 on 5 when he is playing except during a fast break. So whether the unlikely happens and Tyty returns, or not, we have to add a PG who can play 25min/gm that MAKES 3's (say 35%+). There will be some of those in the portal, + there is the potential sign and reclassify of Dillingham or Wagner. So I am confident Wheeler will not be our starting PG next year.
Shooters. There is Fredrick, a very very good one. BUT how well can he return from his injury, and stay healthy??? Wallace looks like a good all around G recruit, but not specifically a shooter. So more in the Maxey, Tyty mold, maybe minus the PG skills. So assuming no Sharpe, we need at least 1, probably 2 more shooters to come in (35%+, preferably 40%+); may need 1 more even in the unlikely event Sharpe plays.
I have no doubt we will have a good team, a top 25 team, a team with 8-10 good players. But to be ELITE, you need those 3 guys who can be "Go-To Guys", someone who can get you a bucket when you need one. I think Collins could be one. If he returned (unlikely but possible) Oscar could be one. If he played (even more unlikely) Sharpe would be one. But it's too soon to know who those Go-To guys will be, but 2 of them should be guys who can play primarily outside making shots.
1) Cal loves PGs, especially bigger ones. Yet he has had 2 small ones. But his preference it bigger ones. And this past year, Wheeler had a deficiency unrelated to his lack of height (shooting). So we usually only had 2 shooters in the game at a time. So playing 4-out or even 3-out wasn't an option, because if Wheeler or Brooks or Topping were outside the 3-pt line, the defenses didn't care (give them that shot). So it was our lack of 3 point shooting that "clogged the lanes", not our offense (although that may not have helped the matter).
2) We say Cal doesn't recruit shooters, but even though the 3pt line has moved back since his arrival, the 9 years before he came we had 3 players make 40% of their 3's (Fitch twice, Meeks once), and in his 13 seasons at UK we've had 9 guys do it (Lamb twice, Miller, Willis, Quickley, Grady, Booker, Murray, Sestina). And over those 9 years prior to Cal, UK made 34.9% of our 3's, while Cal's teams have made 35.4%. But I don't think anyone would argue, he values athletes over shooters.
3) Cal loves length, "rim protectors". And in his first 6 years he had 5 guys average 2+ Blk/gm (Davis, Noel, WCS twice, Towns), but in the past 7 seasons he has only had 1 (Richards). I think this is a critical piece in Cal's defensive strategy, guys who can erase mistakes by perimeter defenders allowing them to play tighter D outside.
4) Whether it is who he recruits, or how he develops, most of Cal's more successful players have been PG (or could play PG) or C or C/PF. Wall, Cousins, Bledsoe, Knight, Davis, Noel, Towns, Ulis, Murray, Fox, Randle, Bam, Quickley, SGA, Oscar, Tyty, Maxey, Richards. And not too many wings SG or SF or SF/PF, Lamb, MKG, Goodwin, Booker, Monk, PJ, Knox.
Next year
We don't know who will return, so we don't know what positions we need to replace. But we've already heard a few intriguing candidate names (Aimaq, Baldwin, Castleton, Broome). And we've heard that Collins is returning.
Collins certainly can provide that rim protector role, whether playing the 4 or 5, as long as he is strong enough to not get push out of the paint. I think his shooting and ability to put the ball on the floor look good enough to put him at the 4, so depending on who our 5 is we could have 2 rim protectors at a time (him and Broome could both swat 3 away per game). That would allow the guards to defend tighter, not having to worry if they got beat. Or if it was Collins & Aimaq, or Collins and Baldwin, you could have both the 4 & 5 as 3pt shooters, both roaming in and out of the paint & 3pt areas taking advantage of matchups. Or Collins and Oscar, would certainly be very good. Mix in some Toppin. and even without knowing who we will have at the 4 & 5, I think we will have a good mix of guys there. But imagine something like Aimaq/Baldwin/Collins/Toppin splitting the 4 & 5 positions.
Cal has played a number of seasons with 3 guard lineups. But it really depends on who he has. If no Sharpe and not some really strong replacement for him, I think it very possible he goes to a more traditional 3, but with 2 very good options (Hopkins, Livingston). And we think Hopkins does have some outside skills (so not like an MKG). He doesn't have to make 35-40% of his 3's, just make 30-35%, enough to be a threat, which will open up driving lanes for him. And you would then see him punish guards defending him going to the rim like Keels did for Duke. And I have hopes Livingston is a similar type player.
Wheeler is what he is. An ok change of pace PG you bring in for spurts, but not "the Guy" to run your team, simply because it is 4 on 5 when he is playing except during a fast break. So whether the unlikely happens and Tyty returns, or not, we have to add a PG who can play 25min/gm that MAKES 3's (say 35%+). There will be some of those in the portal, + there is the potential sign and reclassify of Dillingham or Wagner. So I am confident Wheeler will not be our starting PG next year.
Shooters. There is Fredrick, a very very good one. BUT how well can he return from his injury, and stay healthy??? Wallace looks like a good all around G recruit, but not specifically a shooter. So more in the Maxey, Tyty mold, maybe minus the PG skills. So assuming no Sharpe, we need at least 1, probably 2 more shooters to come in (35%+, preferably 40%+); may need 1 more even in the unlikely event Sharpe plays.
I have no doubt we will have a good team, a top 25 team, a team with 8-10 good players. But to be ELITE, you need those 3 guys who can be "Go-To Guys", someone who can get you a bucket when you need one. I think Collins could be one. If he returned (unlikely but possible) Oscar could be one. If he played (even more unlikely) Sharpe would be one. But it's too soon to know who those Go-To guys will be, but 2 of them should be guys who can play primarily outside making shots.
