If this was the NBA 15 years ago I’d agree but 4 out, 1 in is clearly the way to go right now. Nova, Warriors, etc. Matchups work both ways so while getting the ball in the post will favor uk, can you imagine any of those bigs getting caught in a switch and having to deal with any of Duke’s wings on the perimeter?
I think the whole game is rebounding and free throws. Duke will get fouled a ton so they have to hit from the line. Uk will win the rebounding game but it can’t be by double digits and Duke has to limit offensive rebounds because that could be a main area of scoring for uk.
Such a good matchup because the teams are so different.
Lol, I just want to point a few things out. Your analysis is pretty poor.
Duke has not been able to guard anybody in man-to-man in the OAD era. If they zone UK, they’re going to get absolutely blistered because UK has a lot of really, really good shooters. UK also has more capability of going 4 out and 1 in, or even 5 out on offense, than Duke has (let’s be real here. Bolden can’t shoot, Zion can’t shoot, Barrett has always had a pretty poor jumper, and Tre Jones is leaves a lot to be desired in regards to 3 point shooting over the course of his career. Cam Reddish is your only semi-consistent 3 point and free throw shooting threat, and the dude is fairly streaky, and super soft.
Mind you, when I say that these Duke players can’t shoot, I’m looking at shooting mechanics, historical numbers, so on and so forth.
I just don’t see Duke having the firepower from outside to be able to score effectively on UK, and if Duke is going to try to take it down low, the reality is they’re going to go against a deeper, more talented overall, and more experienced frontcourt than they have.