Kentucky 112th. Transfer production counts. UK hurt by the model not considering returning RB rushing yards to be relatively important, as well as the loss of returning passes defended.
Methodology:
My returning production formula looks at the most predictive key personnel stats -- the numbers that have the most impact on improvement or regression from season to season. What percentage of your QBs' combined passing yardage is returning? Your offensive line snaps? Your defensive tackles for loss? Returning production is weighted based on what correlates most strongly with year-to-year changes in SP+.
The weighting for the offensive returning production formula changes from year to year as I get more data to play with. The current iteration is as follows:
Returning QB passing yards: 29%
Returning RB rushing yards: 5%
Returning WR/TE receiving yards: 34%
Returning OL snaps: 33%
Those who have been following my work for a while might be surprised by that last number. For a long time, I tracked offensive line starts as the best possible way of measuring experience and continuity up front, but its year-to-year correlations weren't very strong and didn't factor much into the overall equation. But having snap count data at my disposal now has opened things up. As it turns out, continuity up front, as measured by your percentage of snaps returning, has a pretty hefty impact on your year-to-year progression or regression. That makes sense, of course -- your offensive line makes up nearly half of your offensive lineup.
Defense is a little bit trickier. The units aren't quite as well-defined -- teams play with three or four linemen, three or four linebackers, four or five defensive backs -- but this is approximately what goes into the defensive returning production figure:
Returning tackles: 56%
Returning tackles for loss: 6%
Returning sacks: 7%
Returning passes defensed: 31%
This ends up being a nice blend of raw tackling figures and disruption stats. Apparently disruption in the passing game is harder to replace -- continuity matters more there.
Perhaps because of this, continuity in the back of the defense has far more of an effect on your stats than continuity up front. Returning production in the secondary ends up accounting for about 59% of your overall statistical change, a monstrous amount compared to linebackers (minus-33%) and defensive linemen (minus-8%). Apparently change up front is much easier to account for, which might surprise some.
Methodology:
My returning production formula looks at the most predictive key personnel stats -- the numbers that have the most impact on improvement or regression from season to season. What percentage of your QBs' combined passing yardage is returning? Your offensive line snaps? Your defensive tackles for loss? Returning production is weighted based on what correlates most strongly with year-to-year changes in SP+.
The weighting for the offensive returning production formula changes from year to year as I get more data to play with. The current iteration is as follows:
Returning QB passing yards: 29%
Returning RB rushing yards: 5%
Returning WR/TE receiving yards: 34%
Returning OL snaps: 33%
Those who have been following my work for a while might be surprised by that last number. For a long time, I tracked offensive line starts as the best possible way of measuring experience and continuity up front, but its year-to-year correlations weren't very strong and didn't factor much into the overall equation. But having snap count data at my disposal now has opened things up. As it turns out, continuity up front, as measured by your percentage of snaps returning, has a pretty hefty impact on your year-to-year progression or regression. That makes sense, of course -- your offensive line makes up nearly half of your offensive lineup.
Defense is a little bit trickier. The units aren't quite as well-defined -- teams play with three or four linemen, three or four linebackers, four or five defensive backs -- but this is approximately what goes into the defensive returning production figure:
Returning tackles: 56%
Returning tackles for loss: 6%
Returning sacks: 7%
Returning passes defensed: 31%
This ends up being a nice blend of raw tackling figures and disruption stats. Apparently disruption in the passing game is harder to replace -- continuity matters more there.
Perhaps because of this, continuity in the back of the defense has far more of an effect on your stats than continuity up front. Returning production in the secondary ends up accounting for about 59% of your overall statistical change, a monstrous amount compared to linebackers (minus-33%) and defensive linemen (minus-8%). Apparently change up front is much easier to account for, which might surprise some.
