Parlays anyone? Better think twice

[Tskware]

I almost never bet a parlay, and after reading an article in WSJ today about the rise of parlays on gambling sites, I will definitely avoid them. The takeaway is what a losing prop they are for bettors. Average profit on "normal" bets is somewhere between 6-7% or so (higher than I would have thought), but gambling sites make about 20% on parlays, making them a classic sucker bet. By way of comparison, think the take at a race track is 12-13%, which is pretty much impossible to overcome in the long run. Naturally, the gambling sites heavily promote parlays, because they are making a killing on them.

Parlay vous?

 

[Blue-ish]

Along those lines, be aware when at the casino.

Sucker Bets: 10 of the Worst and Bad Bets in a Casino

It’s always nice to avoid some of the bad bets in a casino and here’s a quick look at some of those to avoid.

www.888casino.com

 

[TOMCATS1990]

Love me some parlays

 

[secrules3]

Love me some parlays

I don't ever bet on ANYTHING other than CFB Parlays.

Love me some Parlays. Never win but those 3-9k payouts are so nice to look at until after the noon games 😱😡

 

[CapnBlubs]

What I wish people would do is record the stats and confront some of the celebrity endorsers with the terrible track record of their parlay picks (which I doubt they even actually make - probably just interns). If you're going to con people you deserve the scrutiny.

 

[satcheluk]

I almost never bet a parlay, and after reading an article in WSJ today about the rise of parlays on gambling sites, I will definitely avoid them. The takeaway is what a losing prop they are for bettors. Average profit on "normal" bets is somewhere between 6-7% or so (higher than I would have thought), but gambling sites make about 20% on parlays, making them a classic sucker bet. By way of comparison, think the take at a race track is 12-13%, which is pretty much impossible to overcome in the long run. Naturally, the gambling sites heavily promote parlays, because they are making a killing on them.

Parlay vous?

I often play 8-12 team parlays of home favorites of two TDs or more. It usually pays out +125-+200 and usually pays out. I cannot figure out basketball betting.

 

[Deeeefense]

I use money line parlays about 80% of the time. You can parlay two 6 point favorites and get about 10:11 odds your favor, whereas if you take either side on a spread bet your at 11:10. The parlay is much easier to hit and it pays more.

 

[bradyjames]

I use money line parlays about 80% of the time. You can parlay two 6 point favorites and get about 10:11 odds your favor, whereas if you take either side on a spread bet your at 11:10. The parlay is much easier to hit and it pays more.

This is the first argument I have ever read that makes good sense compared to straight up bet.

 

[PopesReignOverCardinals]

Parlays and scratch-offs are how I made my millions.

 

[catsfanbgky]

I play the hell out of prop bets on Prize Picks. I usually play 4/5 a night in the NBA and a few every Sunday in the NFL. Very seldon do college. But UK / Arkansas I had a 4 leg prop bet : $20 to win $200.

Amari Williams over 19.5 points and rebounds (had 33) Thanks Amari for your best effort of the year.

Otega Oweh under 17 points (scored 10) - he had been struggling lately and figured Thiero would be on him)

Jaxson Robinson over 17.5 points and rebounds (23) He has been scoring a bunch lately and he is always good for 3/4 rebounds.

Adou Thiero over 22.5 points and rebounds (scored 29) he averages 16.4 points and 6.3 rebounds and I figured he would get above his averages, UK struggles with rebounding and physical guards / SF. He ended up with 21 points and 8 rebounds.

 

[UKmatt1]

I don’t have the necessary bank roll for single bets to make me any money unless I’m thinking long term and I don’t. If I had say $2K to bet on a game I would do that. But I’m trying to win $5K off $10

 

[catsfanbgky]

I don’t have the necessary bank roll for single bets to make me any money unless I’m thinking long term and I don’t. If I had say $2K to bet on a game I would do that. But I’m trying to win $5K off $10

Good luck. LOL, not a chance in hell. $10 is one 0-2 day, or 1 0-1 day. I have 2 separate accounts. One I bet pretty serious money on games (I posted 50 or so plays in the Gambling threads this year), and another account I do for fun on Prize Picks. I deposited $200 about 3 months ago when I signed up. After a rough 2/3 days, it sits at $692. I usually play 3/4 leg bets on there, payouts range from 5-1 to 10-1.

Every now and then I will play a 4 leg "Goblin" pick (discounted player props, but pay less. A 4 leg pays 2-1 and I will throw $50 on them. Just last night I had Derrick White over 10.5 points / Alperen Sengun over7.5 rebounds / Pascal Siakam over 14.5 points / Norman Powell over 1.5 3's hit. $20 paid $110. I will also play "Demon" picks, opposite of Goblin picks, Demon marks up a players stats, hard to hit, but pays very well. I do not play them for near as much as Goblin picks (hard to hit thus risky wager. Last one I hit was on the 31st. It was a 2 leg, Durant over 3.5 3's (made 5) / Brandon Podzienski over 2.5 3"s (made 4). 15-1, $10 paid $150. I needed luck though, Podzienski only had one 3 pointer, and hit 3 in the last 7 minutes of the game. I have lost 2 Demon bets this week.

Prize Picks is a site if you really want to enjoy watching games, risk very little money. I do not try and break the bank on there, it is more entertainment. Just last night I was up until 1 AM waiting for the Pacer / Clippers game to end. The Pacer and Clippers, lol.

 

[Cleatortoises]

As an proprietor of a place that dabbled in accepting friendly wagers, we loved us some parlay players.
We announced and celebrated the winners loudly and smiled knowingly.

 

[Tf2217]

Most large parlays are garbage. Even more in basketball than football. Idk how many times I've seen absolute BS kill a parlay.
I'll play 4-6 legs at most most of the time.

 

[HalHR2500]

3 team parlays are reasonable hits
4 and above very hard
College BB offers value every day if you do a little research
Pound the boost days when available!

 

[JC CATS]

Love me some parlays

Same and teasers giving another 6.5 points, cannot resist

 

[Deeeefense]

For those interested in the math behind a 2 game parlay here it is. If you just want to know the odds go to the end:

To determine the breakeven win percentage needed to make the parlay bet more profitable than betting each game separately, let's break it down step by step.

Step 1: Expected Profit from Straight Bets​

Each individual bet is at -110 odds, meaning you risk $110 to win $100 (or $1110 to win $1000 in your scenario).

• Win probability needed to break even on a single bet:
  110(110+100)=110210≈52.38%\frac{110}{(110+100)} = \frac{110}{210} \approx 52.38\%(110+100)110=210110≈52.38%
• Let P be the probability of a single bet winning.
• Expected return for betting each game separately:
  EVstraight=2P−1EV_{\text{straight}} = 2P - 1EVstraight=2P−1
  Since you place two separate bets, the expected return per dollar is:
  EVtotal straight=2(2P−1)EV_{\text{total straight}} = 2(2P - 1)EVtotal straight=2(2P−1)

Step 2: Expected Profit from the Parlay Bet​

A parlay bet pays 2.6:1, meaning if you risk $1110, you win $2886 if both bets hit.

• The probability of both games winning is P2P^2P2.
• Expected return per dollar for the parlay:
  EVparlay=3.6P2−1EV_{\text{parlay}} = 3.6P^2 - 1EVparlay=3.6P2−1

Step 3: Find the Breakeven Probability​

To find when the parlay is more profitable than betting separately, we set:

EVparlay≥EVtotal straightEV_{\text{parlay}} \geq EV_{\text{total straight}}EVparlay≥EVtotal straight3.6P2−1≥2(2P−1)3.6P^2 - 1 \geq 2(2P - 1)3.6P2−1≥2(2P−1)3.6P2−1≥4P−23.6P^2 - 1 \geq 4P - 23.6P2−1≥4P−23.6P2−4P+1≥03.6P^2 - 4P + 1 \geq 03.6P2−4P+1≥0

Step 4: Solve the Quadratic Equation​

3.6P2−4P+1=03.6P^2 - 4P + 1 = 03.6P2−4P+1=0
Using the quadratic formula:

P=−(−4)±(−4)2−4(3.6)(1)2(3.6)P = \frac{-(-4) \pm \sqrt{(-4)^2 - 4(3.6)(1)}}{2(3.6)}P=2(3.6)−(−4)±(−4)2−4(3.6)(1)P=4±16−14.47.2P = \frac{4 \pm \sqrt{16 - 14.4}}{7.2}P=7.24±16−14.4P=4±1.67.2P = \frac{4 \pm \sqrt{1.6}}{7.2}P=7.24±1.6
Approximating:

P=4±1.267.2P = \frac{4 \pm 1.26}{7.2}P=7.24±1.26P=5.267.2≈0.73orP=2.747.2≈0.38P = \frac{5.26}{7.2} \approx 0.73 \quad \text{or} \quad P = \frac{2.74}{7.2} \approx 0.38P=7.25.26≈0.73orP=7.22.74≈0.38
Since we are looking for a profitable strategy, we take the higher value:

P≈73%P \approx 73\%P≈73%

Final Answer​

To make the parlay a better bet than betting each game separately, you need to be correct at least 73% of the time on your individual picks.

Credit: ChatGPT

 

[Thecycle27]

It depends if you are a serious gambler or recreational. Serious gamblers rarely play parlays. Even those guys overall winning percentage isn’t great but they hit the + odds more frequently. They also get the best line value. People that are betting $100-$500 a day are betting straight and do a lot of research.

Recreational gamblers like me $5-$25 can hit 5-10 times a year that covers the annual spend. I love parlays but understand the odds are against me. For me it makes the games more interesting.