Our Top 3 Pitchers are Better Than Louisville's Top Pitchers

[Yahtzee43]

I would put our Top 3 pitchers against UofL any day. Their pitchers are overrated, except for McKay. But, i don't think he is as good or have as much control as he did earlier in the season. I see our batters teeing off on him, since we have some really strong LH batters.

And, I think our hitters are much better than Louisville. They really only have 2-3 decent hitters and their only real dominant pitcher is McKay. But, he has not looked that good and dominant lately as he was early in the season.

I think we win this series with our bats. We are a top 5 hitting team and UofL has not played as good of a hitting team as us. McKay is struggling, and our batting is trending up big time over the last 2 weeks. Look at what FSU did to Louisville. We have a similar team and strengths as FSU.

I think we take them in 3 games. They win the first game. We win the second and third.

 

[Comebakatz3]

I think I have a baseball problem...

I am going to do some Louisville research over the week. I'll try to cover some things and see what kind of picture we can get of Louisville going into Friday.

 

[On-On-UK]

I'm no baseball guru, and my opinion don't mean squat.
But I would never make that assumption.

They've won 50 games and have played in the super regional
something like 4 or 5 straight years. I'd say that their pitching staff
is quite good.

I just think that this is our season and this weekend we will add two more bricks to the wall...

 

[Comebakatz3]

Here is some quick little breakdown I've done:

Prior to the NCAA tournament Louisville played 10 teams that made it into the NCAA tournament, and a total of 21 games against those opponents. They were Maryland, Xavier, Kentucky (x2), Clemson (x3), Florida State (x3), Vanderbilt, Wake Forest (x3), Virginia (x3), Indiana, and NC State (x3).

Against those teams Louisville went 13-8. In those 8 losses they gave up 63 runs, almost 8 runs on average per game. Of those 8 losses, 3 of them came on Friday nights, and 3 of them came against the Saturday starter, and the Indiana and Kentucky losses were obviously midweek losses. In these 8 games Louisville scored a combined 27 runs, or just over 3 runs per game. In fact, they only scored over 3 runs in two of those 8.

Still, that leaves 13 games that they won. In those games Louisville gave up 49 runs, for an average of just under 4 per game. They scored 89 runs in those 13 games, or an average of just under 7 per game.

So, as a whole, in the 21 games where they faced an NCAA tournament team they gave up an average of 5 runs per game while scoring an average of about 5.5 runs per game. Now, this is somewhat significant because if you look at the stats, Louisville is scoring an average of 7.3 runs per game and giving up just 3.4 runs per game to opponents. However, when you look at their games against NCAA tournament teams, the numbers become much closer.

By the way, of the teams that Louisville faced that made the tournament, 3 of them are going to be in Super Regionals. UK faced 6 different opponents that will play in Super Regionals this weekend.

For comparison sake:

Kentucky played 24 games against teams that made the NCAA tournament and scored a combined 144 runs, or 6 per game. Kentucky gave up 125 runs, or about 5 per game. Kentucky's overall average against other team's is 7.5 and give up 4.2. Kentucky also went .500 against these teams. It is also good to note that Kentucky also played 3 additional series (9 more games) against teams who had RPIs in the top 50, and UK went a combined 6-3 against those team and averaged roughly 7 runs per game while giving up just under 4 runs per game. Louisville, on the other hand, did not play any other teams with RPIs in the top 50.

By the way... I am just going to vent here for a second... How the ever loving hell did we get a top 30 RPI team as our 3 seed, and a top 35 RPI team as our 2 seed, both of whom have played outstanding schedules, while Louisville is graced with playing just one team in the tournament with a top 30 RPI, and their 3 seed is Xavier, who has an RPI of 72, and played a SOS in the 100s.

 

[Inlumine]

Here is some quick little breakdown I've done:

Prior to the NCAA tournament Louisville played 10 teams that made it into the NCAA tournament, and a total of 21 games against those opponents. They were Maryland, Xavier, Kentucky (x2), Clemson (x3), Florida State (x3), Vanderbilt, Wake Forest (x3), Virginia (x3), Indiana, and NC State (x3).

Against those teams Louisville went 13-8. In those 8 losses they gave up 63 runs, almost 8 runs on average per game. Of those 8 losses, 3 of them came on Friday nights, and 3 of them came against the Saturday starter, and the Indiana and Kentucky losses were obviously midweek losses. In these 8 games Louisville scored a combined 27 runs, or just over 3 runs per game. In fact, they only scored over 3 runs in two of those 8.

Still, that leaves 13 games that they won. In those games Louisville gave up 49 runs, for an average of just under 4 per game. They scored 89 runs in those 13 games, or an average of just under 7 per game.

So, as a whole, in the 21 games where they faced an NCAA tournament team they gave up an average of 5 runs per game while scoring an average of about 5.5 runs per game. Now, this is somewhat significant because if you look at the stats, Louisville is scoring an average of 7.3 runs per game and giving up just 3.4 runs per game to opponents. However, when you look at their games against NCAA tournament teams, the numbers become much closer.

By the way, of the teams that Louisville faced that made the tournament, 3 of them are going to be in Super Regionals. UK faced 6 different opponents that will play in Super Regionals this weekend.

For comparison sake:

Kentucky played 24 games against teams that made the NCAA tournament and scored a combined 144 runs, or 6 per game. Kentucky gave up 125 runs, or about 5 per game. Kentucky's overall average against other team's is 7.5 and give up 4.2. Kentucky also went .500 against these teams. It is also good to note that Kentucky also played 3 additional series (9 more games) against teams who had RPIs in the top 50, and UK went a combined 6-3 against those team and averaged roughly 7 runs per game while giving up just under 4 runs per game. Louisville, on the other hand, did not play any other teams with RPIs in the top 50.

By the way... I am just going to vent here for a second... How the ever loving hell did we get a top 30 RPI team as our 3 seed, and a top 35 RPI team as our 2 seed, both of whom have played outstanding schedules, while Louisville is graced with playing just one team in the tournament with a top 30 RPI, and their 3 seed is Xavier, who has an RPI of 72, and played a SOS in the 100s.

Interesting. What is your take away from that?

 

[Mojocat]

For the sake of argument, let's assume we have two relatively evenly matched teams. I'll point out Louisville has basically been ranked top 5 all year, they'll have the home crowd and that they are veterans of super regionals and even, respecting the coaching staff anyway, the CWS. But again for argument's sake, assume evenly matched.

Even with that, I can't get my hopes up too high when I see their Friday and Saturday starters are lefties, and we simply don't hit lefties as well from what I gather. It nullifies our biggest strength.

I love the mojo around this team, and if you believe in "team of destiny" stuff (as I do), there's plenty to be hopeful about. Still, it feels a little more uphill than it should be when you're talking the 7 seed vs the 9 seed.......

 

[Comebakatz3]

Interesting. What is your take away from that?

Well, I think my point was simply that Louisville has played a relatively easy schedule in some respect. The overall SOS is 69th and the OOC SOS is 226th. In conference they obviously played a much tougher schedule, but they played teams with RPIs of: 131, 84, 26, 17, 13, 75, 90, 118, 15, and 9. So, they played a total of 12 games against top 50 RPI, and 15 games against teams outside the top 75. On the other hand, UK played conferences opponents with RPIs of: 33, 36, 19, 20, 49, 4, 31, 85, 54, 3. So, Kentucky played 8 teams with RPIs in the top 50.

So, I think I was just trying to possibly get a clearer picture of what their team does in terms of scoring and giving up runs against some of the best opponents they face rather than what they do against an astonishingly weak schedule overall. Now, I don't know if I did that entirely, and it is stats and you can play with them and skew them all over the place, but I think it gives a bit different picture. 27 of their 60 games, almost half, have been against teams that have RPIs over 101. So, I just wanted to try to focus in on the "quality" teams they played and what happened rather than the higher RPI teams.

 

[bigbluegrog]

For the sake of argument, let's assume we have two relatively evenly matched teams. I'll point out Louisville has basically been ranked top 5 all year, they'll have the home crowd and that they are veterans of super regionals and even, respecting the coaching staff anyway, the CWS. But again for argument's sake, assume evenly matched.

Even with that, I can't get my hopes up too high when I see their Friday and Saturday starters are lefties, and we simply don't hit lefties as well from what I gather. It nullifies our biggest strength.

I love the mojo around this team, and if you believe in "team of destiny" stuff (as I do), there's plenty to be hopeful about. Still, it feels a little more uphill than it should be when you're talking the 7 seed vs the 9 seed.......

Does anyone (Comebak?) know our BA comparing righties vs. lefties? Keep in mind that we have two switch hitters.....

 

[bigbluegrog]

Here is some quick little breakdown I've done:

Prior to the NCAA tournament Louisville played 10 teams that made it into the NCAA tournament, and a total of 21 games against those opponents. They were Maryland, Xavier, Kentucky (x2), Clemson (x3), Florida State (x3), Vanderbilt, Wake Forest (x3), Virginia (x3), Indiana, and NC State (x3).

Against those teams Louisville went 13-8. In those 8 losses they gave up 63 runs, almost 8 runs on average per game. Of those 8 losses, 3 of them came on Friday nights, and 3 of them came against the Saturday starter, and the Indiana and Kentucky losses were obviously midweek losses. In these 8 games Louisville scored a combined 27 runs, or just over 3 runs per game. In fact, they only scored over 3 runs in two of those 8.

Still, that leaves 13 games that they won. In those games Louisville gave up 49 runs, for an average of just under 4 per game. They scored 89 runs in those 13 games, or an average of just under 7 per game.

So, as a whole, in the 21 games where they faced an NCAA tournament team they gave up an average of 5 runs per game while scoring an average of about 5.5 runs per game. Now, this is somewhat significant because if you look at the stats, Louisville is scoring an average of 7.3 runs per game and giving up just 3.4 runs per game to opponents. However, when you look at their games against NCAA tournament teams, the numbers become much closer.

By the way, of the teams that Louisville faced that made the tournament, 3 of them are going to be in Super Regionals. UK faced 6 different opponents that will play in Super Regionals this weekend.

For comparison sake:

Kentucky played 24 games against teams that made the NCAA tournament and scored a combined 144 runs, or 6 per game. Kentucky gave up 125 runs, or about 5 per game. Kentucky's overall average against other team's is 7.5 and give up 4.2. Kentucky also went .500 against these teams. It is also good to note that Kentucky also played 3 additional series (9 more games) against teams who had RPIs in the top 50, and UK went a combined 6-3 against those team and averaged roughly 7 runs per game while giving up just under 4 runs per game. Louisville, on the other hand, did not play any other teams with RPIs in the top 50.

By the way... I am just going to vent here for a second... How the ever loving hell did we get a top 30 RPI team as our 3 seed, and a top 35 RPI team as our 2 seed, both of whom have played outstanding schedules, while Louisville is graced with playing just one team in the tournament with a top 30 RPI, and their 3 seed is Xavier, who has an RPI of 72, and played a SOS in the 100s.

Great detailed research.....thank you for your efforts!

 

[Comebakatz3]

Does anyone (Comebak?) know our BA comparing righties vs. lefties? Keep in mind that we have two switch hitters.....

I don't. I have not seen anywhere that actually provides a detailed breakdown like that. I would definitely love to know though. Of course, there are a lot of interesting stats that I'd love to see. haha

 

[Black Diamond Cat]

Great discussion, UofL did run thru a very good baseball league ACC, for the 2nd straight year. UK had an outstanding season in an outstanding league SEC.
The 2 teams split their games this season, The Cards scored 12 total runs, the Cats scored 14 total runs. This was of course against mid-week pitching, although Z Thompson is a weekend guy right now IMO.
The games are all at noon, with the forecast calling for mid 80's Fri. and Sat. and low 90's on Sunday.
The games will be played on a Sports turf field, so no bad hops should come into play, and UK plays there every year so that should help.
Pitching will no doubt, be the key to victory. UK will probably send J Lewis out Fri, and if they win, would probably send Z Thompson out Sat. I f the Cats lose game 1, look for a Hjelle- McKay match up on Sat. Hopefully we can win Fri. and save Hjelle for a possible winner take all game on Sunday.

 

[Inlumine]

Well, I think my point was simply that Louisville has played a relatively easy schedule in some respect. The overall SOS is 69th and the OOC SOS is 226th. In conference they obviously played a much tougher schedule, but they played teams with RPIs of: 131, 84, 26, 17, 13, 75, 90, 118, 15, and 9. So, they played a total of 12 games against top 50 RPI, and 15 games against teams outside the top 75. On the other hand, UK played conferences opponents with RPIs of: 33, 36, 19, 20, 49, 4, 31, 85, 54, 3. So, Kentucky played 8 teams with RPIs in the top 50.

So, I think I was just trying to possibly get a clearer picture of what their team does in terms of scoring and giving up runs against some of the best opponents they face rather than what they do against an astonishingly weak schedule overall. Now, I don't know if I did that entirely, and it is stats and you can play with them and skew them all over the place, but I think it gives a bit different picture. 27 of their 60 games, almost half, have been against teams that have RPIs over 101. So, I just wanted to try to focus in on the "quality" teams they played and what happened rather than the higher RPI teams.

If I read it right, Louisville was 13-8 against tournament teams and Kentucky was 12-12, which would favor Louisville on a % basis. However maybe the fact that Kentucky has played more games overall against tournament teams would bode well for Kentucky in a high leverage situation.

Either way, thanks for compiling!

 

[Comebakatz3]

If I read it right, Louisville was 13-8 against tournament teams and Kentucky was 12-12, which would favor Louisville on a % basis. However maybe the fact that Kentucky has played more games overall against tournament teams would bode well for Kentucky in a high leverage situation.

Either way, thanks for compiling!

I think you got it. What is pretty impressive about their record against the NCAA tournament opponents is that 7 of the wins came in true road games. They got 5 wins at home and 1 win at a neutral site in Florida (against Maryland). One of their losses was technically at a neutral site, but it was still in Louisville, so I counted it as a home loss.

@NC State 2-1
@ Virginia 2-1
Wake 2-1
@Clemson 3-0
Florida State 0-3
Xavier 1-0
Maryland 1-0
@Indiana 0-1
@Kentucky 0-1
Kentucky 1-0
Vanderbilt 1-0

Kentucky's schedule looked like this against their tournament opponents:

@UNC 0-3
*Delaware 0-1
@TAMU 3-0
Vanderbilt 2-1
@Miss State 1-2
LSU 2-1
@Florida 1-2
*LSU 0-1
Louisville 1-0
@Louisville 0-1
Indiana 1-0
Xavier 1-0

That means that 7 of Kentucky's 12 wins came while Kentucky was at home. Two of their losses came at neutral sites (LSU and Delaware).

So, their record in that regard is a lot more impressive. Just interesting that they had to play some of the better teams they faced on the road and they were fairly successful in doing so.

If you want to spin it even more... Louisville was 2-4 against teams still playing in Super Regionals, with every one of their games but one played in Louisville. Meanwhile, Kentucky was 10-8 against teams still playing in Super Regionals, with 5 of their wins coming on the road. We can kind of spin this however we want.

 

[Comebakatz3]

Great discussion, UofL did run thru a very good baseball league ACC, for the 2nd straight year. UK had an outstanding season in an outstanding league SEC.
The 2 teams split their games this season, The Cards scored 12 total runs, the Cats scored 14 total runs. This was of course against mid-week pitching, although Z Thompson is a weekend guy right now IMO.
The games are all at noon, with the forecast calling for mid 80's Fri. and Sat. and low 90's on Sunday.
The games will be played on a Sports turf field, so no bad hops should come into play, and UK plays there every year so that should help.
Pitching will no doubt, be the key to victory. UK will probably send J Lewis out Fri, and if they win, would probably send Z Thompson out Sat. I f the Cats lose game 1, look for a Hjelle- McKay match up on Sat. Hopefully we can win Fri. and save Hjelle for a possible winner take all game on Sunday.

You think that they will hold McKay to the second game? Who do you think they go with in game 1? If I am them I throw McKay first and hope to get the 1st game win in order to put all the pressure on Kentucky to win 2 games in a row on the road.

 

[Black Diamond Cat]

You think that they will hold McKay to the second game? Who do you think they go with in game 1? If I am them I throw McKay first and hope to get the 1st game win in order to put all the pressure on Kentucky to win 2 games in a row on the road.

I think he pitched Saturday against Oklahoma, which was a close game until the 7th or 8th inning when Louisville got 10 of their 11 runs in that game.

 

[Black Diamond Cat]

I think he pitched Saturday against Oklahoma, which was a close game until the 7th or 8th inning when Louisville got 10 of their 11 runs in that game.

Yes, I thought he pitched Saturday against OU, he went 6.1 innings, 3 hits, 1 run, 1 er, 7 K's, but got a no decision. They could go with McLure or the other starter for game 1.

 

[RogerIndy]

UofL did run thru a very good baseball league ACC

Actually, they didn't play UNC this season, the best team in the conference

 

[Old_Red]

I don't. I have not seen anywhere that actually provides a detailed breakdown like that. I would definitely love to know though. Of course, there are a lot of interesting stats that I'd love to see. haha

ESPN has a PDF, look at page 16.

 

[Comebakatz3]

ESPN has a PDF, look at page 16.

I'll be a son of a gun! Look at you coming up strong in the clutch!

 

[Comebakatz3]

That's amazing that there are 4 teams hitting above .300 against lefties and we're the only one hitting over .300 on righties. Also interesting that we're one of just 3 teams with over 600 at bats against lefties and the only one with over 500 against righties.

 

[STUCKNBIG10]

Here is some quick little breakdown I've done:



By the way... I am just going to vent here for a second... How the ever loving hell did we get a top 30 RPI team as our 3 seed, and a top 35 RPI team as our 2 seed, both of whom have played outstanding schedules, while Louisville is graced with playing just one team in the tournament with a top 30 RPI, and their 3 seed is Xavier, who has an RPI of 72, and played a SOS in the 100s.

UL somehow gets an easy draw most years for their home regional. I've said this all year, UL has very few really good wins and they played an absolutely pathetic OOC schedule. I think their national seed is questionable at best.

 

[Black Diamond Cat]

Actually, they didn't play UNC this season, the best team in the conference

No they didn't play in the regular season. Would have met in the ACC tourney, but FSU beat the Cards. The Tar Heels, by the way are done thanks to Davidson, so Best team, I think maybe , maybe not !

 

[teach them linear]

Don't forget our struggles with lefties mostly included lefty hitting squires behind the plate. Coach inserted righty hitting Cottam behind the dish. I think it was quite a concession defensively as Cole is just not "settled" receiving and doesn't throw as well.

I think aside from Hjelle and Salow Louisville has better pitching but we have significantly better hitting. I really like our chances, I'm glad it is not in the not so power friendly field in Omaha.

 

[CardHack]

Hjelle won't be saved for Sunday; I haven't seen a SuperRegional yet that had a Friday or Saturday guy saved unless under extreme circumstances. This year I can't imagine the order for Louisville won't be McKay, McClure then Bennett on Sunday.

 

[Mojocat]

ESPN has a PDF, look at page 16.

Thanks! I'm missing something though. It says we have 509 hits in 155 at bats against righties - clearly impossible, so you think they just got the column headings reversed. But even the math is wrong - it says that's an average against righties of .328, but I think if you carry your one.....155/509 is .305.

 

[Comebakatz3]

Thanks! I'm missing something though. It says we have 509 hits in 155 at bats against righties - clearly impossible, so you think they just got the column headings reversed. But even the math is wrong - it says that's an average against righties of .328, but I think if you carry your one.....155/509 is .305.

Good catch. So, here is what I think is the problem... it is supposed to be 1,554 at bats against righties. I got that number by subtracting the overall number at bats by the number of at bats it claims we've had against lefties. If you then divide the 509 hits by the 1,554 at bats, you get the .328 necessary.

Looks like a lot of the last numbers are probably chopped off in the chart, but that is what is going on.

 

[Black Diamond Cat]

Hjelle won't be saved for Sunday; I haven't seen a SuperRegional yet that had a Friday or Saturday guy saved unless under extreme circumstances. This year I can't imagine the order for Louisville won't be McKay, McClure then Bennett on Sunday.

The only way Hjelle would be saved for Sunday, would be if UK were to win on Friday. Even then, they would probably go with him on Saturday, looking to try and wrap it up. That is a lot of ifin, but he won't go on Friday, but is probably going on Saturday.

 

[Mojocat]

Good catch. So, here is what I think is the problem... it is supposed to be 1,554 at bats against righties. I got that number by subtracting the overall number at bats by the number of at bats it claims we've had against lefties. If you then divide the 509 hits by the 1,554 at bats, you get the .328 necessary.

Looks like a lot of the last numbers are probably chopped off in the chart, but that is what is going on.

Good sleuthing!

Back to the original point, if we're batting .296 against lefties - that's pretty good, and I probably overstated that "disadvantage". Of course, McKay is no ordinary lefty.....

 

[Comebakatz3]

Good sleuthing!

Back to the original point, if we're batting .296 against lefties - that's pretty good, and I probably overstated that "disadvantage". Of course, McKay is no ordinary lefty.....

It is certainly a disadvantage compared to .328, but it is still darn good, and I am willing to bet that UK is probably better against lefties when a lefty starts as opposed to against them when a lefty is brought in as relief. By that I simply mean that we're probably better when we can stack our lineups one way or the other. Where we might have a bit more of a disadvantage is when we have 7 lefties hitting and then they bring in a righty and we still have 5 guys hitting from the left side instead of possibly two.

 

[CatsFanGG24]

Hypothetical: Lewis starts game 1, cats jump out to a 5-3 lead or so...Lewis pitch count climbs to the 90s in the 4th/5th...would you be willing to use Thompson in long relief? Or just hope you can piece some innings together until Salow? I trust Machamer, but would worried about others...even Logue.

How far out of the norm do you go to win game 1?

 

[beasleythecard]

You think that they will hold McKay to the second game?

i believe that would be a solid approach.

 

[Comebakatz3]

Hypothetical: Lewis starts game 1, cats jump out to a 5-3 lead or so...Lewis pitch count climbs to the 90s in the 4th/5th...would you be willing to use Thompson in long relief? Or just hope you can piece some innings together until Salow? I trust Machamer, but would worried about others...even Logue.

How far out of the norm do you go to win game 1?

Well, it all depends on the situation, IMO. If UK leads 5-0 and then in the 4th or 5th Lewis gets into trouble and gives up 3 runs and runners are still on first and second (or loaded) and 1 out or less then I probably greatly consider taking him out. If UK is leading 5-0 and Lewis gave up a 3 run home run to make the game 5-3 and the bases are clear, even at 90 pitches that early I might leave him in and see if he can get me the inning and just continue to improve.

So, if I have to take him out that early, I think it would again depend on the situation. I think Machamer has done great lately and I would highly consider bringing him in to get me out of the situation, and then take me further. I also think that Logue has done a fine job, and I might consider bringing him in. I think Logue has proven to be a very solid middle reliever, and in two middle relief outings he has pitched 6 innings and given up 0 runs, 0 earned runs, and has given up just 4 hits while striking out 8 batters. So, it appears that he somewhat has the ability to be a pretty good stopper and inning eat, possibly better at that than at starting.

It is also entirely possible to throw a couple of people for 1 or 2 innings. For instance, if you're in the fourth you have Machamer come in to get you through the 6th. 7th and 8th are pitched by Logue and the 9th by Salow. This, ideally, allows you to bring most of them back for another outing the next day, or Sunday.

 

[Comebakatz3]

i believe that would be a solid approach.

Possibly, but I think game 1 is just so darn important in a three game series. All the pressure to win two games in a row is just huge. I wouldn't question an extremely smart and competent Louisville coach if that is his decision, but if I were in his seat in the dugout I'd have a hard time taking McKay off of Friday.