*NCAA Tourney Predictive Model - 01/23/22 UPDATE*

[Aike]

We got a little weaker, but managed to rise one spot to the 8th best rating after our week on the road.

Mississippi St. vaulted up 10 spots to 23, just ahead of our showdown this week.

Here’s the latest Top 32. Let me know if you have any questions.

1. Auburn 3.31 unchanged
2. Arizona 3.24 unchanged
3. Gonzaga 2.98 unchanged
4. Houston 2.68 unchanged
5. Baylor 2.55 up 2
6. Tennessee 2.54 unchanged
7. Kansas 2.47 down 2
8. Kentucky 2.13 up 1
9. Duke 2.11 down 1
10. LSU 2.02 unchanged
11. Iowa 1.99 unchanged
12. Florida 1.74 up 4
13. Texas 1.71 down 1
14. Villanova 1.69 up 1
15. OH ST 1.60 up 2
16. Alabama 1.581 up 3
17. Purdue 1.580 down 4
18. UCONN 1.57 down 4
19. Illinois 1.43 up 2
20. FL ST 1.41 up 5
21. Oklahoma 1.40 down 1
22. Xavier 1.38 up 1
23. Miss ST 1.32 up 10
24. Oklahoma 1.30 unchanged
25. TX Tech 1.283 up 1
26. Iowa ST 1.280 down 8
27. Marquette 1.254 unchanged
28. Memphis 1.245 down 6
29. UCLA 1.23 down 1
30. Michigan ST 1.20 unchanged
31. Loyola-Chi 1.14 up 1
32. St. Mary’s 1.1

 

[Oldbluefart]

Aike; how does your model factor in the injuries? I think any reasonable person would agree the outcome yesterday had a greater chance to be different than what it was if not for the injuries.
If Auburn had lost Smith for the game or their center for long stretches (Wheeler) the outcome could have been much different as well.
Thoughts?
Once again, thanks for doing this. Enjoy reading your posts.

 

[Aike]

It doesn’t factor in injuries explicitly. To some degree, you have to use common sense. If you know a key player was out, and that affected the team, factor that in on your own.

On the other hand, the ability to advance in the tournament includes being able to overcome injuries, foul trouble, etc. Sometimes you have to ask yourself, what version of this team will I expect to see in March?

Its one thing to think about what the best version of a team looks like. Slightly different to think about what the most likely version is.

Another reason I would love to see Sharpe developed into a contributor this season. We look like a championship contender when fully healthy and clicking. But the reality is that we look more like an Elite Eight team because we struggle with injuries. One more strong contributor could swing things in our favor.

 

[Aike]

Set up a website this afternoon. A little rough, but so is Kenpom. Check it out.

Website link

 

[BBUK]

Set up a website this afternoon. A little rough, but so is Kenpom. Check it out.

Website link

Good stuff. Will you keep the site up?

 

[Aike]

Good stuff. Will you keep the site up?

I’m planning to.

 

[HerrosHeroes]

Nice job Aike..8 is spot on IMHO.

 

[ColonelCat]

Aike; how does your model factor in the injuries? I think any reasonable person would agree the outcome yesterday had a greater chance to be different than what it was if not for the injuries.
If Auburn had lost Smith for the game or their center for long stretches (Wheeler) the outcome could have been much different as well.
Thoughts?
Once again, thanks for doing this. Enjoy reading your posts.

I think you meant Kessler not wheeler. I agree on kessler, after Toppin fouled out Brooks could not get that pick and roll, and Oscar had to pick up two players hence 3-4 dunks for Kessler.

 

[Aike]

Nice job Aike..8 is spot on IMHO.

It seems about right, all things considered.