Nate Silver: UK Has a 94% Chance of Making Sweet 16

[Smashcat]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/march-madness-predictions-2015/#mens

 

[anon_kxlrmusn5ugsm]

They had better get focused, regardless of the late start or whatever excuse there is. If they come out flat tomorrow, that could be the end of the run. After tomorrow's win and I believe they will win, anymore games like last night is a loss.

 

[wildcatsboston1984]

And UK's odds of getting to the final four, the title game, and winning the title have all dropped. It was at 73%/54%/41% prior to yesterday. Now it is 71%/51%/37%. Normally it goes up with more teams eliminated. I guess the numbers really hated the way we won yesterday.

 

[anon_kxlrmusn5ugsm]

How did Villanova's chances move? They looked very impressive, very focused and all business. Arizona too. Our boys better wake up and get serious.

 

[wild mandu]

Originally posted by wildcatsboston1984:
And UK's odds of getting to the final four, the title game, and winning the title have all dropped. It was at 73%/54%/41% prior to yesterday. Now it is 71%/51%/37%. Normally it goes up with more teams eliminated. I guess the numbers really hated the way we won yesterday.

Arizona and Villanova played hard for 40 minutes, not down to the level of their competition.

But stats don't win games, so whatever.

 

[slford00]

Originally posted by wildcatsboston1984:
And UK's odds of getting to the final four, the title game, and winning the title have all dropped. It was at 73%/54%/41% prior to yesterday. Now it is 71%/51%/37%. Normally it goes up with more teams eliminated. I guess the numbers really hated the way we won yesterday.

I would suspect our lower "odds" of winning have nothing to do with the way we won, but instead the fact that the other three games in our region yesterday were all won by the higher seeded teams (8 beat 9, 6 beat 11, and 3 beat 14). While those are the results you would expect, as of yesterday there was still a statistical chance that 9, 11, and 14 could have advanced, and our odds of beating them should we face them would be higher.

Therefore, since there is now a 100% certainty that the round of 32 in our region will include 8, 6, and 3 seeds (as opposed to 60-70-80% as of yesterday, or whatever the odds were that those teams would advance) instead of 9/11/14 seeds, our chances have dropped.

They are all meaningless numbers, but that's my interpretation.

 

[Willy4UK]

Originally posted by BlueinTex:


They had better get focused, regardless of the late start or whatever excuse there is. If they come out flat tomorrow, that could be the end of the run. After tomorrow's win and I believe they will win, anymore games like last night is a loss.

Hate to see them come all this way only to play uninspired.

That will work against the Hamptons, but the higher we go and the lack of effort will cost us.

 

[Shawn (uk7spd)]

Originally posted by slford00:

Originally posted by wildcatsboston1984:
And UK's odds of getting to the final four, the title game, and winning the title have all dropped. It was at 73%/54%/41% prior to yesterday. Now it is 71%/51%/37%. Normally it goes up with more teams eliminated. I guess the numbers really hated the way we won yesterday.

I would suspect our lower "odds" of winning have nothing to do with the way we won, but instead the fact that the other three games in our region yesterday were all won by the higher seeded teams (8 beat 9, 6 beat 11, and 3 beat 14). While those are the results you would expect, as of yesterday there was still a statistical chance that 9, 11, and 14 could have advanced, and our odds of beating them should we face them would be higher.

Therefore, since there is now a 100% certainty that the round of 32 in our region will include 8, 6, and 3 seeds (as opposed to 60-70-80% as of yesterday, or whatever the odds were that those teams would advance) instead of 9/11/14 seeds, our chances have dropped.

They are all meaningless numbers, but that's my interpretation.

Spot on IMO. The "odds" of teams advancing past a certain round are necessarily dependent on what teams are in their path. Thus, a team's odds will change as lower or higher seeds advance because the previous odds accounted for the odds that the lower seed could beat the higher seed. So if the higher seed wins, UK's odds will drop slightly, and if the lower seed wins, UK's odds will rise slightly.

 

[Xzandernm]

Originally posted by Shawn (uk7spd):

Originally posted by slford00:

Originally posted by wildcatsboston1984:
And UK's odds of getting to the final four, the title game, and winning the title have all dropped. It was at 73%/54%/41% prior to yesterday. Now it is 71%/51%/37%. Normally it goes up with more teams eliminated. I guess the numbers really hated the way we won yesterday.

I would suspect our lower "odds" of winning have nothing to do with the way we won, but instead the fact that the other three games in our region yesterday were all won by the higher seeded teams (8 beat 9, 6 beat 11, and 3 beat 14). While those are the results you would expect, as of yesterday there was still a statistical chance that 9, 11, and 14 could have advanced, and our odds of beating them should we face them would be higher.

Therefore, since there is now a 100% certainty that the round of 32 in our region will include 8, 6, and 3 seeds (as opposed to 60-70-80% as of yesterday, or whatever the odds were that those teams would advance) instead of 9/11/14 seeds, our chances have dropped.

They are all meaningless numbers, but that's my interpretation.

Spot on IMO. The "odds" of teams advancing past a certain round are necessarily dependent on what teams are in their path. Thus, a team's odds will change as lower or higher seeds advance because the previous odds accounted for the odds that the lower seed could beat the higher seed. So if the higher seed wins, UK's odds will drop slightly, and if the lower seed wins, UK's odds will rise slightly.

I don't think it's what seed wins like you think. Nova jumped 5% over all to win but Ncst the higher seed advanced(they increase 4% chance of getting past Nc st)

 

[Samwise Ganjee]

 

[Bardstown]

Anyone could see we played a very small team and looked average.

 

[Bardstown]

Plus the sec is not doing great.

 

[slford00]

Originally posted by Xzandernm:

Originally posted by Shawn (uk7spd):

Originally posted by slford00:

Originally posted by wildcatsboston1984:
And UK's odds of getting to the final four, the title game, and winning the title have all dropped. It was at 73%/54%/41% prior to yesterday. Now it is 71%/51%/37%. Normally it goes up with more teams eliminated. I guess the numbers really hated the way we won yesterday.

I would suspect our lower "odds" of winning have nothing to do with the way we won, but instead the fact that the other three games in our region yesterday were all won by the higher seeded teams (8 beat 9, 6 beat 11, and 3 beat 14). While those are the results you would expect, as of yesterday there was still a statistical chance that 9, 11, and 14 could have advanced, and our odds of beating them should we face them would be higher.

Therefore, since there is now a 100% certainty that the round of 32 in our region will include 8, 6, and 3 seeds (as opposed to 60-70-80% as of yesterday, or whatever the odds were that those teams would advance) instead of 9/11/14 seeds, our chances have dropped.

They are all meaningless numbers, but that's my interpretation.

Spot on IMO. The "odds" of teams advancing past a certain round are necessarily dependent on what teams are in their path. Thus, a team's odds will change as lower or higher seeds advance because the previous odds accounted for the odds that the lower seed could beat the higher seed. So if the higher seed wins, UK's odds will drop slightly, and if the lower seed wins, UK's odds will rise slightly.

I don't think it's what seed wins like you think. Nova jumped 5% over all to win but Ncst the higher seed advanced(they increase 4% chance of getting past Nc st)

Again, I don't know for sure, but I still think changes in percentage odds has more to do with the rest of the bracket than how a one seed performs in ONE game against a 16 seed.

In Nova's case, I would guess that their 5% increase in overall chances of winning the tourney has a large part to do with Iowa State going down (in a different region, but on their side of the bracket) as well as UCLA winning (another double-digit seed that advanced). Their increased chances of winning in the next round probably reflects that--despite seeding--they have better odds of beating NC State than they would have had for beating LSU and their bigs.

I could be wrong, but I have a really, really hard time believing that after going 34-0 and dominating all season, our chances of winning the whole tournament would drop by a whole 4% because of our performance in ONE game against a 16-seed.

 

[BBNinSC]

Watch the bump in those odds after a win over Cincinnati tomorrow.

 

[wildcatsboston1984]

Originally posted by wild mandu:

Originally posted by wildcatsboston1984:
And UK's odds of getting to the final four, the title game, and winning the title have all dropped. It was at 73%/54%/41% prior to yesterday. Now it is 71%/51%/37%. Normally it goes up with more teams eliminated. I guess the numbers really hated the way we won yesterday.

Arizona and Villanova played hard for 40 minutes, not down to the level of their competition.

But stats don't win games, so whatever.

Yes, but the Pomeroy offensive and defensive efficiency numbers barely changed for all three teams. Don't know what formulas they used, but I didn't figure these games would matter so much as to decrease Kentucky's odds. Kentucky didn't play THAT bad.

 

[wildcatsboston1984]

Villanova was 46/29/11 (Final Four, title game, champions) before the games yesterday. After yesterday's games, they improved to 53/36/16. They are now 15% more likely to go to the Final Four after beating a 16 seed than before? I don't get that. Curb stomping a 16-seed is supposed to be factored into the odds to begin with. Silver must have changed his formulas this year for there to be such a drastic increase in their odds despite no one in the East region getting upset.

I would completely understand it if that had been Duke getting such a big jump in odds since their #3 and #6 seeds got ousted yesterday, but they only got a 2%/1%/0% increase. So basically, obliterating a 16-seed has a bigger impact on the odds in the tournament than a #3 and a #6 seed losing. That's illogical.

 

[caneintally]

LOL if anyone thinks UK will be uninspired tomorrow or from here on out ( unless we play a team like Valpo) you havent been watching this team all year. If it is a good team this team destroys them.