Matt Jones makes playoff pitch
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A 3 loss SEC team could. Hell a undefeated FSU team didn't make the playoffs last year. SEC conference is #1, so 2/3 loss teams will make it. Remember there are only 4 power conferences left and the ACC is rated very weak (FSU getting left out last year). A 3 loss SEC team would get in over a 2 loss ACC team because the team from the SEC will have had a lot more / better quality wins. Yes it can and will happen, maybe not UK, but A SEC team will get in.
9 and 3 is unlikely to get UK in. They would have to be ranked 11th in final playoff poll to make it as the 12th spot goes to the group of 5 cupcake sacrificial lamb team.
It wouldn't have happened in 2018 or 2021 if there had been a 12 team playoff.
I'm all for going 9 and 3 and seeing if this year is different though.
It wouldn't have happened in 2018 or 2021 if there had been a 12 team playoff.
I'm all for going 9 and 3 and seeing if this year is different though.
I can't predict the future or would move to Lexington and become famous betting the horses, bet no one ever said that before. But I think a 3 loss team gets left out too. With the group team getting a bid, all 4 P4 teams getting automatic bid, leaves 7 spots. But reading other boards, 10 teams feel they have a chance at 10 wins and the playoffs.
I think Missouri is probably 6th-7th best team but hit the lottery with their schedule and the only way they are out is making SEC championship and getting 3rd loss, or maybe even 2nd loss. I think they play at Bama and officials will protect Bama who smokes Missouri.
I think big and SEC each get 3 teams in, a 3 loss team could make it but with so many teams with a shot at 10 don't think so. The group team and the other 2 champions gets us to 9 teams. ND is probably the only 3 loss team that gets in and they will likely win 9-10 which leaves 2 spots. It likely comes down to does the conference runner up in ACC and big 12 deserve to be in over 4th place teas in b10 or SEC.
FSU didn't get left out because the ACC was weak, they got left out because they were a shell of the team they were after QB was injured. They beat a 10 win LSU by 3 TDs in the opener. Bama beat them by 2 TD and 11 win OM beat them by 6 pts. At full strength FSU was a top 4 team.
That is true, but also true is the ACC is considered VERY weak conference. 2 things can both be true. Yes they would have got in if the QB was healthy, but they didn't and a undefeated team was left out of the playoffs. Tell me, who outside of a healthy FSU was good last year ? A bunch of meh teams.
ACC bowl record 5-6
Wins :
GTech 30 UCF 17
Duke 17 Troy 10
VTech 41 Tulane 20
BC 23 SMU 14
Clemson 38 UK 35
Not ONE of the 5 wins is considered a quality win. Clemson a top ACC team nearly lost to a very mediocre UK team.
Losses :
USF 45 Syracuse 0
USC 42 Louisville 28 (not really that close)
WVU 30 UNC 10
K-State 28 NC State 19
Rutgers 31 Miami 24
Georgia 63 FSU 0
ACC teams was really only close in the Rutgers / Miami game. Beating the likes of Troy, UCF, Tulane, SMU while losing to teams like USF, WVU, Rutgers is not a ringing endorsement of a strong conference. NC State in a fairly even matchup with K-State did not ever have a chance for the win.
ACC bowl record 5-6
Wins :
GTech 30 UCF 17
Duke 17 Troy 10
VTech 41 Tulane 20
BC 23 SMU 14
Clemson 38 UK 35
Not ONE of the 5 wins is considered a quality win. Clemson a top ACC team nearly lost to a very mediocre UK team.
Losses :
USF 45 Syracuse 0
USC 42 Louisville 28 (not really that close)
WVU 30 UNC 10
K-State 28 NC State 19
Rutgers 31 Miami 24
Georgia 63 FSU 0
ACC teams was really only close in the Rutgers / Miami game. Beating the likes of Troy, UCF, Tulane, SMU while losing to teams like USF, WVU, Rutgers is not a ringing endorsement of a strong conference. NC State in a fairly even matchup with K-State did not ever have a chance for the win.
Like you said, everything you just typed is true, but with a healthy QB FSU was in regardless of how weak the conference was. But he was injured and the committee decided to take Bama and Texas and leave FSU out, which looks like a good move today.
Having said all of that, the SEC will probably have 5 teams make the playoffs.
My opinion who the teams will be
Georgia
Texas
Ole Miss
Tenn.
Missouri
Other teams in the running and may take the 5th spot :
Bama
LSU
SEC will not get all 7 in, but I feel pretty safe in predicting 5 will. MINIMUM of 4.
My opinion who the teams will be
Georgia
Texas
Ole Miss
Tenn.
Missouri
Other teams in the running and may take the 5th spot :
Bama
LSU
SEC will not get all 7 in, but I feel pretty safe in predicting 5 will. MINIMUM of 4.
It depends on the year. The final CFP rankings in 2022 had a 9-3 Kansas State team ranked #9. In 2018, Florida, LSU and Penn State would have all made it at 9-3. Chances are more likely than not, but if UK were to finish 9-3 this year with their 3 losses all to top 10 teams and a win or 2 against top 25 teams, then I could see it.
When it gets to 16, 3 loss teams will 100% be making it every year. There are not enough 2 or less loss teams to fill the bracket.
People say pre season rankings are not important. It’s how you finish. That’s complete bullshit. If Alabama starts the season ranked #5 and somehow loses 3. It’s possible They. remain in the top 12. Depends on who they lose to and when.
Start the season unranked like we are and that’s probably impossible.
Everyone sleeping on LSU.
Their schedule is very manageable and they have a very good QB who was stuck behind Heisman winner. Plus they upgraded their D by taking Mizzou’s DC.
Bet em if you bet!
Last season there were 4 SEC teams with 10+ win regular season wins, Bama, OM, Missouri and UGA. LSU finished 10-3 after bowl and ranked 22th, but was not in top 12 selection night.
But no year will be the same and 9-3 in SEC could get you in some years and not the next.
But no year will be the same and 9-3 in SEC could get you in some years and not the next.
Name brand matters. If it ever came down to 9 and 3 UK or 9 and 3 ND we aren't getting in. Same with if both UK and bama are 9 and 3 and last spot goes to one of them. It is what it is.
Yeap. Add Texas this year and that is how I came up with my 5 SEC teams make the playoffs prediction.
One more time, he isn't predicting 9 wins, he's making the case that 9 wins and a playoff birth is not, in his word, "crazy" to think about.
Until we get a complete coaching staff change, we will never be in playoff. Coach Stoops will never get us were we want to be. This is his 12th year and has not done shvt. I'm more for a football coach change than I was for Cal's sorry ase gone. We need a new young progressive coach that will and can recruit. A older coach with a big salary and with our fan base that won't put major pressure on him to produce become lazy. Lazy, but still getting a monthly check for $750,000. 8 & 4 and 7 & 5 does not warraant $750,000 per month. We can get a young coach for half that price and win more than Stoops has or will going forward. I'm not sure why our fan base fears getting a worse coach. I hear so many fans say that Stoops is not the answer, but then say he is the best we have had. being below 50% win rate in the SEC is not what we want. With TX & OK joinging the SEC and going to 9 conference games, I fear Stoops can't get bowl eligible 50% of the time. If you are happy with that performance, then shame on you.
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Oh…. I see… It’s easy. Just go grab a young energetic coach. Like Florida ,Auburn , Texas A&M, Miami, USC, and other historically better programs than us have done. You really think it’s that easy?
If it was ,we would not have a better record the last 5 years than all those schools I listed.
You should be thankful for what CMS has done here. I believe he is overpaid as all coaches are, but his results of pulling us out of the basement beside Vandy is a great accomplishment. Vandy still resides there. We were on par with only them in that basement for the 10 years before Stoops arrived. We are now ahead of Florida. Florida is closer to Vandy than we are. Florida still out recruits us I’ll remind you.
Be careful what you ask for. Mitch Barnhart will make that next hire if Stoops leaves. You really think good ole Mitch is gonna go grab a young energetic fireplug that all these other schools can’t find..? Mitches first priority in a new coach will be how much time he spends in church.
With this recent basketball hire Mitch never truly considered Hurley or Oats.
Mitch wanted Drew or Pope. Two people that are deeply involved in their religion, as he is.
I would put my confidence in his next hire NOT putting us back in the basement at less than 10%
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Guys, there's ample history to go back and check. Before there was a 12 team playoff, there was the New Year's 6 bowl games made up of...12 teams. Chosen by the committee as best teams or automatic qualifiers. Just like playoff teams will be chosen this year. 3 loss teams did get in before. And that was when the Pac 12 took up one automatic spot. Even easier this year
Ole Miss in 2014
Wisconsin in 2016
Auburn in 2017 (I can't tell if this is AQ or because they were 7th, but still evidence)
Florida in 2018
And I'm leaving out teams that had 3 losses but got in as quasi AQs. Sometimes teams fill in as conference representative for semifinal team. But still, a few of them were top 12 ranking and would've gotten in anyway. So could add a few more to list.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Year's_Six
Ole Miss in 2014
Wisconsin in 2016
Auburn in 2017 (I can't tell if this is AQ or because they were 7th, but still evidence)
Florida in 2018
And I'm leaving out teams that had 3 losses but got in as quasi AQs. Sometimes teams fill in as conference representative for semifinal team. But still, a few of them were top 12 ranking and would've gotten in anyway. So could add a few more to list.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Year's_Six
A lot I disagree with in this post. Stoops 'can't and won't recruit'? Have you looked at our recruiting under Stoops compared to pretty much every other coach we've had in the past? Don't forget that our instate recruiting is very thin compared to all the other SEC schools, our NIL is less than many in both the B10 and SEC. It's very difficult to build a playoff program with these 2 very huge disadvantages. Is Stoops a great coach? No, I don't think so. His tendency to be overly conservative and let opponents stay within striking distance is maddening to me. But, he hasn't done 'shvt'? C'mon, that's just factually incorrect.
History is littered with 'the next great coach' crapping the bed and being run out of town. I mean, Lincoln Riley will most likely start feeling heat at USC if they don't make the playoffs this year. And there are very few places that have all the advantages that USC has and Riley was a 'genius' at OK and NFL teams were panting to make him their head coach before he went to the Trojans. Closer to home, you'd have been happy with Liam Coen as our HC? Young, progressive and very mediocre last year as OC, imo. Did not coach to his personnel and did not see a whole bunch of improvement in Leary as the season progressed. Who will be the next 'great' coach is as much of a guessing game as how a 4* LB recruit will improve, develop and perform in the SEC.
I agree that he is overpaid. I also agree that almost every HC in big-time CFB is overpaid. That's the going rate for a coach who has had success, who has stuck around for more than a decade and is coaching in the SEC. I think it's ridiculous but it is reality. A new coach for half the money may produce half the wins. Or, if he's very successful at UK, he may be the next Auburn or Ohio State or USC or LSU or Michigan head coach where he'll get the big bucks. You're not going to be able to continue to pay a good, young coach half as much for very long. There are better and richer programs who'd poach him, not to mention the NFL.
You could very well be right, but under the current alignment I dint think either conference will get 5 in. And there is this, if Texas had been in the SEC last year there ikely wouldn't have been 5 teams with 10 wins either.
4 SEC teams will make the playoff, it is possible a 3 loss team can make it depending on who losses were against.
Of all of the teams I listed a few post up, which ones do you think will have more than 2 losses ? I can see where a SEC team with 3 losses get in. If will mostly consist of SEC / Big conference teams, 1 ACC team, 1 Big 12, and the Group of 5. BIG conference is top heavy, it is not as deep as the SEC. A 3 loss top 5 SEC school would get in over a 2 loss ACC / Big 12 team, they just will.
I wanted Cal gone, because since 2018, he was performing below our program’s historic average. When he came, we were the winningest BB program in history. Now we aren’t.
When Stoops arrived we historically had more losses than wins: we now have more wins than losses.
A clear delineation between between a Coach who failed to maintain a program’s status, and one who enhanced a program’s status.
Last year, one 10-2 team would have been left out - exactly 12 P5 teams had 2 or fewer losses, and one G5 champ gets in. In 2022, we would have had TWO 3 loss teams in a 12 team playoff, but both won their conference championship game. In 2021, 3-loss Utah would have gotten in. So, it's possible.
He's crazier than a shit house rat.
They didn't expand the play offs for 9-3 teams.
They expanded it so all the P4s could get their best in, then Notre Dame, and maybe a feel-good story undefeated G5. Thus, appealing to a wider audience and not becoming so regionalized that you lose mass appeal.
Guys it's not that hard to do the math on this.
Basically, the top 3 teams in every conference are getting in.
The years Notre Dame is in the hunt, and or there's a great undefeated G5, the question will be who's #3 do you leave out?
They didn't expand the play offs for 9-3 teams.
They expanded it so all the P4s could get their best in, then Notre Dame, and maybe a feel-good story undefeated G5. Thus, appealing to a wider audience and not becoming so regionalized that you lose mass appeal.
Guys it's not that hard to do the math on this.
Basically, the top 3 teams in every conference are getting in.
The years Notre Dame is in the hunt, and or there's a great undefeated G5, the question will be who's #3 do you leave out?
'Best' G5 team gets an automatic bid, regardless, IIRC. So, a 2-loss G5 team will automatically be selected over a 2-loss P4 team regardless of the rankings. Throw in ND (are they ACC? are they independent? are they to be considered like the G5 since they aren't in a P4 conference?) plus the G5 and I think you'll have top 3 SEC and B10 pretty much every year and probably top 2 of B12 and ACC and that's about it. Hard to believe a 2-loss ACC and/or B12 would supplant a 3-loss SEC/B10 team (depending on the losses, of course) but I think that's how it'll shake out a lot of years. If ND has 3 losses, might see another SEC or B10 included.
Are conference championship games still going to be held? It's possible that two teams could play 3 times in a year (regular season, conference championship, CFP playoffs), if so. That's just plain stupid, imo.
Another possibility: let's say you're 12-0 Georgia (I know, what are the odds of THAT?). You know regardless of the outcome of the SEC championship game, you're in the playoff. Do you sit your stars for the SECC since that game is basically meaningless? Play the starters only half? If you lose, you might have to play an additional game (top 4 get a bye). But, if your starting QB tears up a knee in an SECC game, it doesn't matter that you get a bye the first round. Maybe not a catastrophic injury but a concussion or a high ankle sprain or a dislocated finger on the throwing hand. All sorts of injuries can and will occur that could seriously threaten your chances of winning it all. And, for what? An SECC championship ring, perhaps? 100% of players and coaches would choose CFP championship rings under every circumstance over a conference championship. So, you may see players opt out of conference championship games if risk/reward is skewed enough.
Are conference championship games still going to be held? It's possible that two teams could play 3 times in a year (regular season, conference championship, CFP playoffs), if so. That's just plain stupid, imo.
Another possibility: let's say you're 12-0 Georgia (I know, what are the odds of THAT?). You know regardless of the outcome of the SEC championship game, you're in the playoff. Do you sit your stars for the SECC since that game is basically meaningless? Play the starters only half? If you lose, you might have to play an additional game (top 4 get a bye). But, if your starting QB tears up a knee in an SECC game, it doesn't matter that you get a bye the first round. Maybe not a catastrophic injury but a concussion or a high ankle sprain or a dislocated finger on the throwing hand. All sorts of injuries can and will occur that could seriously threaten your chances of winning it all. And, for what? An SECC championship ring, perhaps? 100% of players and coaches would choose CFP championship rings under every circumstance over a conference championship. So, you may see players opt out of conference championship games if risk/reward is skewed enough.
Never was there intent to upset anyone about Stoops. I have been a Kentucky fan longer than a lot on this forum have been alive. I'm 79 in 6 weeks. i have lived through a ton of disappointments. CMS has not and will not get UK to Atlanta or near the 12 team playoff. Stoops has a 11 year career in the SEC at Kentuck and is below 50%. How we continue to hope, pray, or even think things are going to get better is beyond me. His recruiting compared to past coaches has zero merit. The comparison is how he compares to other SEC programs. Currently KY is 10th in SEC. Florida and Ole Miss are currently barely behind us but will be above us come December signing date. This means we are 12th out of 14 teams. That recruiting is crap and will NEVER get us in SEC championship game. How can anyone be happy with that performance. If we were paying Stoops $1 million dollars a year he should still be fired. Our University deserves more and should demand more, especially paying $9 million a year. How long did it take Auburn and Tennessee to improve their program after firing sorry coaches. If our next coach craps the bed, we currently have a $9 millions dollar that craps the bed. I will be thrilled with just being bowl eligible with current coaching staff. That is the ceiling of this head coach. 11 years going on 12 and we are still at best a middle of the pack SEC team.
So you think 3 teams from the ACC and Big 12 get in ? LOL, who are they ? FSU and a bunch of meh teams who will have a minimum of 3 losses. Same for Big 12. Name me three teams who will get and not have 3 losses in both conferences. YOU CAN"T. And I guaran Damn Tee you, a three loss ACC team or Big 12 team will NOT get in over a three loss SEC team. IT WILL NOT HAPPEN. Those conferences do not have the quality wins needed to compete with the SEC. There is a legit 8 teams from the SEC who have a CHANCE to make the playoffs. Not saying all 8 will make it, but 8 has a chance.
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The ACC outside of FSU, the teams predicted to finish somewhere between 2nd and 6th :
Clemson
Miami
SMU
NC State
Virginia Tech
Not a one of those teams finish with less than 3 losses, and I would be willing to bet any amount you want to lose. That is a bunch of 8-4, MAYBE 9-3 teams.
SEC
Georgia
Texas
Bama
Ole Miss
LSU
UT
Missouri
Texas A&M
NONE of those teams lose more than 3 games, 4 max (A&M), and a bunch will only lose 1/2. So you are telling me teams like Miami, SMU, NC State, and Virginia Tech has a better chance than the 4th / 5th / 6th / 7th place SEC teams ? What are you smoking ??
Clemson
Miami
SMU
NC State
Virginia Tech
Not a one of those teams finish with less than 3 losses, and I would be willing to bet any amount you want to lose. That is a bunch of 8-4, MAYBE 9-3 teams.
SEC
Georgia
Texas
Bama
Ole Miss
LSU
UT
Missouri
Texas A&M
NONE of those teams lose more than 3 games, 4 max (A&M), and a bunch will only lose 1/2. So you are telling me teams like Miami, SMU, NC State, and Virginia Tech has a better chance than the 4th / 5th / 6th / 7th place SEC teams ? What are you smoking ??
ACC standing last year : (outside of FSU)
Clemson 9-4
Louisville 9-4
NC State 9-4
Vir. Tech 7-6
Miami 7-6
SMU 10-3 (in the AAC, not ACC)
Big 12 (with out Texas and Oklahoma)
Ok State - 9-4
WVU 9-4
K-State 9-4
Iowa State 7-6
LOL, sure those teams will get in over a Texas, Bama, Ole Miss, LSU, UT, Missouri.
FSU from the ACC Ok. State from the Big 12. MAYBE Clemson sneaks in IF every bounce falls their way, but I say no. Utah from the Big 12.
Clemson 9-4
Louisville 9-4
NC State 9-4
Vir. Tech 7-6
Miami 7-6
SMU 10-3 (in the AAC, not ACC)
Big 12 (with out Texas and Oklahoma)
Ok State - 9-4
WVU 9-4
K-State 9-4
Iowa State 7-6
LOL, sure those teams will get in over a Texas, Bama, Ole Miss, LSU, UT, Missouri.
FSU from the ACC Ok. State from the Big 12. MAYBE Clemson sneaks in IF every bounce falls their way, but I say no. Utah from the Big 12.
I said it's unlikely, but not impossible . I cited the two times UK went 9 and 3 and they wouldn't have made a 12 team playoff either season. The brand name 9 and 3 teams will get the bid over everyone else. Wait and see.
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