You can cherry pick a few players, sure. It is not an exact science. But OVERALL, it is a very good indicator. If you recruit top 40 classes chances are you will regularly be in bowls. Recruit past the 40's and your team will struggle in a power 5 conference.
Look at the recruiting rankings in the SEC every year and you will see the same schools atop the standings (Bama, Ga, UF, LSU, TxAm, Auburn). UT usually recruits well but they were terribly coached and have lost a ton of those players over the years. Who are the schools that usually recruit in the bottom 4 historically? Vandy, Ky, Mizzou and Ole Miss. Those are usually the 4 worst teams in the league. It ain't rocket science.