Louisville Season Prediction

[Johnfarrel]

I typically wait until I get my Phil Steele mag before making any personal predictions about how the forthcoming season looks. And I try not to talk about UofL over here unless they are the subject of the conversation. But since they are...

UofL was a horrible football team in 2018. Just horrible in virtually every aspect of play. 2-10 is an enormous drop off for a team that was an 8/9 game winner against basically the same schedule the previous 4 years. The real question is: Why?

Disregarding luck, I think Performance is the product of 2 factors - Talent and Coaching.

If you look at Talent from a bird's eye view, the UofL 2015-2018 Rival's classes averaged #30.5. For comparison purposes, the UK classes that same period averaged #29.8. (UK certainly had the edge in the 2014 classes but I'm not sure how many of those guys were around as 5th year seniors.)

Which brings us to Coaching. I'm not making excuses but CBP lost his dad (not just his dad but his "football mentor") last year and I have heard rumors of a divorce. His UofL staff included his son and 2 son in laws, at least 2 of which had virtually no big time coaching experience.

Until the recent transfer surge UofL expected to return about 100 players from the 2018 roster, many from those "above average" recruiting classes. There are now about a dozen transfers on record, including maybe 3 or 4 who I thought would be key contributors this year.

But recruiting rankings are one thing and actual on field performance another. And regardless of rankings there are clearly some position holes on the current roster. Regarding 2019, the point is I have no idea how much "real" talent the new staff has to work with and no idea how that talent fits what they want to do. I suspect it will be very similar to UK's style - run the ball and play defense. But I have no idea how good they will be at it.

All that said, it brings me to the topic of the thread. Just this week I took a somewhat detailed look at UofL's schedule. It struck me it divided neatly into successive thirds of 4 games each. To that end:

1st 4 games (ND, EKU, WKU, @FSU): 3-1 would be miracle and 1-3 a disaster. Either result would have a big impact on the season overall but this clearly looks a like 2-2 start.

2nd 4 games (BC, @WF, Clem's Son, VA): IMO, the key part of the season. Clem's Son is a name-your-score game for the Tigers. At this time I have no idea about what returns for the other 3 but 2 of the games are at home. Can they find 2 wins here? 2-2 here would level the record to 4-4.

Last 4 games (@Miami, @NC St, 'Cuse and @UK): Clearly the toughest third of the schedule. 4 good teams, 3 on the road. Any win here would be a steal. Certainly looks like an 0-4 run as of today.

So until we start seeing actual 2019 games, it looks like 4-8; maybe 5-7 season to me.

Peace

Always enjoy your posts.

 

[3kidsandme]

5 7 would be a heck of a coaching job. I'm thinking 3 9

 

[STUCKNBIG10]

WOW, I just clicked on the link to the UL board in the OP. What a riot. A 6-6 record with that group would be a MIRACLE. I'm sorry, I don't know how anyone with a conscience could post that with a straight face. That reminds me of the old days over here when Joker was running us into the ground or Brooks was bringing us back from probation, but we'd still have a few guys declaring 10-2 to be reasonable.

It's not just the predicted record, but the score predictions are hilarious. Virtually no blowouts. Clemson scrapes by giving UL a "respectable loss". Clemson brings back their all-everything QB, tons of 5-star talent, and they hung 77 on UL last year but somehow will only win by 17 this year. Hilarious!

Enjoy this year, UK fans. UL is gonna be BAD and they will limp in here at the end of the year at somewhere between 1-10 (correct, I am not certain that they will beat both EKU and WKU) and 4-7 (and I think four wins would be extremely generous and would probably mean that Satterfield is a better coach than I think he is).

 

[Smashcat]

-They have a LOT of players transferring and not much in the way of new recruiting given Satterthorpe's late start.

Yep. They will stink it up and we will toy with them.

 

[jauk11]

I'm always a glass half full guy, but damn.... University Six was a really, really bad football team last year and it looked like the S&C staff had left town the year before and just left a note to the linemen to eat lots of pizza and drink plenty of beer. They were the worst FBS team I've seen a UK team play since I suppose UTEP in 2002, and I can't really remember a worse P5 team ever. Satterthorpe is a no nonsense guy, a good coach and will at the very least change the culture, but he's going to need a lot of time to produce a turnaround.

Well, you have to admit that diet will make their weight gains look impressive.

 

[Crankdatmustard]

This is the best looking roster in regards to talent and depth that UK has EVER fielded.

 

[HoptownCat93]

It's funny how over there...they keep saying that our season wasn't that good.

We beat more ranked teams last season than they have in the last 10 years lol.

They keep thinking that we are going to revert back back to the Joker days....

Even though Stoops has never taken a step back record-wise

And let's be real....we dropped an interception to seal the game in 2014 with a far inferior roster...and 2015 and 2017 they won solely because of Lamar Jackson. Our recruiting has gotten better and better....we now have more talent. Charlie's guys are gone...Lamar ain't walkin through the door. They are down!

 

[Caveman Catfan]

We beat more ranked teams last season than they have played in the last 10 years lol.

I believe UL under Petrino beat ONE ranked team. Stoops had that bested before last year, but last year alone he blew that out of the water. 10-3 with 3 top 25 wins and an OT loss to A&M on the road. UL has never had that kind of season. In 2012, Strong lead UL to a 11-2 record with one win over a top 25 team, UF in the bowl game, and a final AP ranking of #13. That was an awesome year, but not as good as UK in 2018.

 

[Pike 96]

I typically wait until I get my Phil Steele mag before making any personal predictions about how the forthcoming season looks. And I try not to talk about UofL over here unless they are the subject of the conversation. But since they are...

UofL was a horrible football team in 2018. Just horrible in virtually every aspect of play. 2-10 is an enormous drop off for a team that was an 8/9 game winner against basically the same schedule the previous 4 years. The real question is: Why?

Disregarding luck, I think Performance is the product of 2 factors - Talent and Coaching.

If you look at Talent from a bird's eye view, the UofL 2015-2018 Rival's classes averaged #30.5. For comparison purposes, the UK classes that same period averaged #29.8. (UK certainly had the edge in the 2014 classes but I'm not sure how many of those guys were around as 5th year seniors.)

Which brings us to Coaching. I'm not making excuses but CBP lost his dad (not just his dad but his "football mentor") last year and I have heard rumors of a divorce. His UofL staff included his son and 2 son in laws, at least 2 of which had virtually no big time coaching experience.

Until the recent transfer surge UofL expected to return about 100 players from the 2018 roster, many from those "above average" recruiting classes. There are now about a dozen transfers on record, including maybe 3 or 4 who I thought would be key contributors this year.

But recruiting rankings are one thing and actual on field performance another. And regardless of rankings there are clearly some position holes on the current roster. Regarding 2019, the point is I have no idea how much "real" talent the new staff has to work with and no idea how that talent fits what they want to do. I suspect it will be very similar to UK's style - run the ball and play defense. But I have no idea how good they will be at it.

All that said, it brings me to the topic of the thread. Just this week I took a somewhat detailed look at UofL's schedule. It struck me it divided neatly into successive thirds of 4 games each. To that end:

1st 4 games (ND, EKU, WKU, @FSU): 3-1 would be miracle and 1-3 a disaster. Either result would have a big impact on the season overall but this clearly looks a like 2-2 start.

2nd 4 games (BC, @WF, Clem's Son, VA): IMO, the key part of the season. Clem's Son is a name-your-score game for the Tigers. At this time I have no idea about what returns for the other 3 but 2 of the games are at home. Can they find 2 wins here? 2-2 here would level the record to 4-4.

Last 4 games (@Miami, @NC St, 'Cuse and @UK): Clearly the toughest third of the schedule. 4 good teams, 3 on the road. Any win here would be a steal. Certainly looks like an 0-4 run as of today.

So until we start seeing actual 2019 games, it looks like 4-8; maybe 5-7 season to me.

Peace

the problem with your argument is it is WAY oversimplified to compare Rivals ranking for UK and UL from purely the end rank result.

Stoops was and is a line of scrimmage guy who has constantly focused on the LOS and adding speed on defense. UK's most highly ranked players have been spread throughout the roster.
While it's well documented that Pretino stocked up on Offensive skill players at the expense of other roster spots. most of your highest rated recruits over the last 4 years were QB's and WR's that haven't panned out much. take them away and the recruiting talent gap increases significantly

 

[Caveman Catfan]

Before Wildcard responds, UL’s best season was 2006 when it beat 3 top 25 teams and finished #6. That was an awesome season. While that Miami team was grossly overrated early in the year, I think that year in the Big East arguably tops the season UK just had by a narrow margin.

 

[uksam21]

I believe UL under Petrino beat ONE ranked team. Stoops had that bested before last year, but last year alone he blew that out of the water. 10-3 with 3 top 25 wins and an OT loss to A&M on the road. UL has never had that kind of season. In 2012, Strong lead UL to a 11-2 record with one win over a top 25 team, UF in the bowl game, and a final AP ranking of #13. That was an awesome year, but not as good as UK in 2018.

A Florida team that couldn't have a cared a flying fart in space to be in New Orleans that night.

 

[uksam21]

Before Wildcard responds, UL’s best season was 2006 when it beat 3 top 25 teams and finished #6. That was an awesome season. While that Miami team was grossly overrated early in the year, I think that year in the Big East arguably tops the season UK just had by a narrow margin.

agree with this but that was 13 years ago. How about since Louisville moved to a major conference? Petrino 2.0 beat 1 top 25 team in nearly 5 years of coaching.

 

[RocknRollCats]

It's funny how over there...they keep saying that our season wasn't that good.

We beat more ranked teams last season than they have in the last 10 years lol.

They keep thinking that we are going to revert back back to the Joker days....

Even though Stoops has never taken a step back record-wise

And let's be real....we dropped an interception to seal the game in 2014 with a far inferior roster...and 2015 and 2017 they won solely because of Lamar Jackson. Our recruiting has gotten better and better....we now have more talent. Charlie's guys are gone...Lamar ain't walkin through the door. They are down!

If you catch a U6 fan trying to diminish our 10 win season while playing in the best conference in the country, ask that fan, "How many times has a U6 football team won 10 or more games while playing in a P5 conference?"

The answer: Zero. Has never happened.

 

[BigBoyBlueMMA]

If Satterfeld wins 6 with this bunch of Heathens......He Gone Bro!!! He will be next Ball Coach at USC or head coach in waiting at BAMA as he would be a GOD of a Coach

 

[RocknRollCats]

I typically wait until I get my Phil Steele mag before making any personal predictions about how the forthcoming season looks. And I try not to talk about UofL over here unless they are the subject of the conversation. But since they are...

UofL was a horrible football team in 2018. Just horrible in virtually every aspect of play. 2-10 is an enormous drop off for a team that was an 8/9 game winner against basically the same schedule the previous 4 years. The real question is: Why?

Disregarding luck, I think Performance is the product of 2 factors - Talent and Coaching.

If you look at Talent from a bird's eye view, the UofL 2015-2018 Rival's classes averaged #30.5. For comparison purposes, the UK classes that same period averaged #29.8. (UK certainly had the edge in the 2014 classes but I'm not sure how many of those guys were around as 5th year seniors.)

Which brings us to Coaching. I'm not making excuses but CBP lost his dad (not just his dad but his "football mentor") last year and I have heard rumors of a divorce. His UofL staff included his son and 2 son in laws, at least 2 of which had virtually no big time coaching experience.

Until the recent transfer surge UofL expected to return about 100 players from the 2018 roster, many from those "above average" recruiting classes. There are now about a dozen transfers on record, including maybe 3 or 4 who I thought would be key contributors this year.

But recruiting rankings are one thing and actual on field performance another. And regardless of rankings there are clearly some position holes on the current roster. Regarding 2019, the point is I have no idea how much "real" talent the new staff has to work with and no idea how that talent fits what they want to do. I suspect it will be very similar to UK's style - run the ball and play defense. But I have no idea how good they will be at it.

All that said, it brings me to the topic of the thread. Just this week I took a somewhat detailed look at UofL's schedule. It struck me it divided neatly into successive thirds of 4 games each. To that end:

1st 4 games (ND, EKU, WKU, @FSU): 3-1 would be miracle and 1-3 a disaster. Either result would have a big impact on the season overall but this clearly looks a like 2-2 start.

2nd 4 games (BC, @WF, Clem's Son, VA): IMO, the key part of the season. Clem's Son is a name-your-score game for the Tigers. At this time I have no idea about what returns for the other 3 but 2 of the games are at home. Can they find 2 wins here? 2-2 here would level the record to 4-4.

Last 4 games (@Miami, @NC St, 'Cuse and @UK): Clearly the toughest third of the schedule. 4 good teams, 3 on the road. Any win here would be a steal. Certainly looks like an 0-4 run as of today.

So until we start seeing actual 2019 games, it looks like 4-8; maybe 5-7 season to me.

Peace

WC, I will preface by conceding that I generally enjoy your posts. The occasional troll bait really doesn't bother me. Your posts are interesting.

Having said that, this post appears to be colored more Cardinal red than ususal.

While I won't dispute that UL will field more than a few talented skilled position players on the offensive side of the ball, I don't see enough experienced talent in the trenches to project much improvement at all on the OL or DL.

For that matter, the defensive talent overall is suspect.

In the absence of quality players on the OL and DL and unproven defenders, more generally, I suggest an 0-12 outcome is more likely than 6-6.

Don't be at all surprised if U6 starts 0-4.

As UK has learned the hard way, when EKU and WKU see vulnerability at a bigger cross-state university, they come to play inspired football.

 

[STUCKNBIG10]

It's funny how over there...they keep saying that our season wasn't that good.

We beat more ranked teams last season than they have in the last 10 years lol.

They keep thinking that we are going to revert back back to the Joker days....

Even though Stoops has never taken a step back record-wise

And let's be real....we dropped an interception to seal the game in 2014 with a far inferior roster...and 2015 and 2017 they won solely because of Lamar Jackson. Our recruiting has gotten better and better....we now have more talent. Charlie's guys are gone...Lamar ain't walkin through the door. They are down!

This is true, especially the part that says that we beat more ranked teams last year than they have in a decade. We got wins over UF, Miss State, and Penn State. Throw in good wins over Mizzou and South Carolina, and UK had a good resume last year.

For UL, I struggle to think of many wins over really good teams during their "glory years". They beat the mighty gators in the sugar bowl and they beat FSU with Jimbo on their gameday game, but there aren't many others. Always remember that even their best years were built on the backs of weak scheduling.

 

[RocknRollCats]

Louisville Cardinals
ACC FBS | 0-0

• Passing Yards
  164th
  211.1 PYPG
• Rushing Yards
  196th
  141.5 RYPG
• Total Yards Per Game
  207th
  352.6 YPG

Wow...

 

[uksam21]

This is true, especially the part that says that we beat more ranked teams last year than they have in a decade. We got wins over UF, Miss State, and Penn State. Throw in good wins over Mizzou and South Carolina, and UK had a good resume last year.

For UL, I struggle to think of many wins over really good teams during their "glory years". They beat the mighty gators in the sugar bowl and they beat FSU with Jimbo on their gameday game, but there aren't many others. Always remember that even their best years were built on the backs of weak scheduling.

5 wins over bowl teams and 3 of those were by double digits (Florida, South Carolina, and Miss State). We had Penn State down 27-7 in the 4th quarter also.

 

[uksam21]

5 wins over bowl teams and 3 of those were by double digits (Florida, South Carolina, and Miss State). We had Penn State down 27-7 in the 4th quarter also.

Louisville would have lost to all 5 of those teams last year and likely all by double digits.

 

[HoptownCat93]

This is true, especially the part that says that we beat more ranked teams last year than they have in a decade. We got wins over UF, Miss State, and Penn State. Throw in good wins over Mizzou and South Carolina, and UK had a good resume last year.

For UL, I struggle to think of many wins over really good teams during their "glory years". They beat the mighty gators in the sugar bowl and they beat FSU with Jimbo on their gameday game, but there aren't many others. Always remember that even their best years were built on the backs of weak scheduling.

I'll give them credit...they did field some very talented and well coached units over the years....but they did it in the CUSA, BigLEAST, and the AAC.

They moved up...they had a lot of NFL talent and stumbled upon the greatest athlete in college history....and tbh they really haven't done anything other than the big win over the overrated Florida State team.

Boston College, Virginia, Weak Forrest, and UVa is who they play every year. Compare that to the supposedly weak SEC East (bottom) of Missouri, USCjr, Tennessee, and Vanderbilt. More talented teams top to bottom on our schedule.

Now that they have to face better athletes and programs with comparable money week in and out....they've faltered because it shows how hard it is to win at that level. They went all in on athletes...you can win with that style in the Big Least....but if you aren't recruiting Clemson/FSU type athletes you cannot sustain that without strong line play.

 

[uksam21]

Louisville would have lost to all 5 of those teams last year and likely all by double digits.

We also beat Vandy another bowl team from last year.

 

[STUCKNBIG10]

5 wins over bowl teams and 3 of those were by double digits (Florida, South Carolina, and Miss State). We had Penn State down 27-7 in the 4th quarter also.

Vandy also went to a bowl, so we actually had 6 wins over bowl teams (assuming you include the win we had over the team that we faced in our bowl)

 

[EclipsingYou]

6 WINS? HAHAHAHA!!!! UL is going to be the worst BCS conference school in the country. I'm not exaggerating one bit. 4 wins would be a miracle with that roster. 1-11 or 2-10 is most likely, but 0-12 wouldn't be a stretch. They are HISTORICALLY bad.

 

[FltDoc]

1-11 at best

2-10 my guess....

anyone thinking that they beat UK this year is laughable. Only way they can hurt us this year is if we bet on the 21pt. spread, and we somehow don't make it!

Go CATS!

 

[WildCard]

Have to give WC credit he knows how to needle UK. Guy is amazing

I saw nothing in my earlier post that I would call "needling". However, I am pretty thick skinned.

Wildcard, very nice analysis. I agree a 6-6 result would be miraculous.

Always enjoy your posts.

Thank you guys. I try hard to be objective - on both boards - and sometimes catch a little grief (more here than Cardinal boards). I hope you guys are not trashed for your compliments.

I have no idea what kind of Coach Satterfield is but with the short recruiting class, the mass transfers and Bobby Petrinos complete failure to recruit lineman on both sides of the ball I'd have to believe 6 wins or more a miracle.

Now I do think some of the suffering last year was players quitting on Petrino. They might be more motivated to play for the new staff, I dunno. He'll have to get his team to buy in. Last year when we played them they were pretty much just motivated to commit personal fouls.

@WildCard ...but I think you missed a very important point on why UL was 2-10 last year.

Roster imbalance. OL and DL were not up to the quality of their opponents. That’s as nice as I can say “They sucked and they sucked HARD”...

I agree with the above 2 posts and concur that both offensive and defensive football begins on the line.

Interestingly enough, in those "even recruiting years" noted in my earlier post, the Cards recruited 16 OLs and 18 DLs and UK recruited 17 OLs and 18 DLs in that 2015-2018 cycle. I'm too lazy to dig up individual rankings and status but that's pretty close as far as numbers go. Raw talent and development are 2 different things. There is no doubt that O-line coaching in his second term was much more disjointed than in his first term. I really don't know who is left at either school (2019 OL and DL) but it clearly favors UK.

One of their fans watched our spring game, reported back to their board that we suck. Said pretty much that Stoops will get outcoached and U6 wins

One?

I didn't realize UK was so average last year. And that the teams we beat were also average. Weird.

Nor did I. FWIW, I saw a 10-3 SEC team that was (I believe) 2-2 vs final AP Top 25 competition.

WOW, I just clicked on the link to the UL board in the OP. What a riot. A 6-6 record with that group would be a MIRACLE. I'm sorry, I don't know how anyone with a conscience could post that with a straight face. That reminds me of the old days over here when Joker was running us into the ground or Brooks was bringing us back from probation, but we'd still have a few guys declaring 10-2 to be reasonable.

Well, that's what site writers (and hard core fans) usually project.

It's funny how over there...they keep saying that our season wasn't that good.

Anyone who says that is either a hard core hater (plenty on each side) or simply doesn't know squat about the game (lots of those on each side as well).

the problem with your argument is it is WAY oversimplified to compare Rivals ranking for UK and UL from purely the end rank result.

Not arguing; just trying to take a bird's eye look at the talent on hand question. For what little it is worth, Phil Steele had UofL #31 in his 2018 pre-season power numbers but had them #46 in his post season projections. UK was #75 pre-season and unranked (i.e., not in his top 60 post season projection). The only "point" here is UK did much better than "expected" and UofL did much worse.

A Florida team that couldn't have a cared a flying fart in space to be in New Orleans that night.

Well IDK about that. But I do know it was an 11-1 FL team ranked #3 in the country going into the game against a 10-2 UofL team ranked #21.

WC, I will preface by conceding that I generally enjoy your posts. The occasional troll bait really doesn't bother me. Your posts are interesting.

Having said that, this post appears to be colored more Cardinal red than ususal.

Thank you. But I don't see a lot of red in my earlier post. I am only penciling in 2 wins. The other 2 (or maybe even 3 ) wins would have to come over teams that, right now, I think are average at best and may be beatable at home. We will see how it goes.

I'll give them credit...they did field some very talented and well coached units over the years....but they did it in the CUSA, BigLEAST, and the AAC.

They moved up...they had a lot of NFL talent and stumbled upon the greatest athlete in college history....and tbh they really haven't done anything other than the big win over the overrated Florida State team.

Boston College, Virginia, Weak Forrest, and UVa is who they play every year. Compare that to the supposedly weak SEC East (bottom) of Missouri, USCjr, Tennessee, and Vanderbilt. More talented teams top to bottom on our schedule....

Certainly UofL's best records have come against "weaker" schedules. Probably true for most teams. And it has been a longggg climb to get a spot in a P5 conference. But for the 4 SEC "bottom feeders" you mention the average final Sagarin ranking for those teams is #46. You mention UVA twice for the UofL opponents. I'll sub in very sub par #67 FSU and the average there is #52 - pretty damn close. Going with a more typically average opponent (#48 GT) makes the average ranking #47. The upshot here is, since joining the ACC, the UofL and UK SOS has been basically equal.

Whew! Longest post ever. I'm worn out!

Peace

 

[ThePhoenix]

That whole prediction article is funny (no shot at 6-6), but the funniest part was that they would only lose to Clemson 44-27. I almost fell out of my chair.

 

[HoptownCat93]

Certainly UofL's best records have come against "weaker" schedules. Probably true for most teams. And it has been a longggg climb to get a spot in a P5 conference. But for the 4 SEC "bottom feeders" you mention the average final Sagarin ranking for those teams is #46. You mention UVA twice for the UofL opponents. I'll sub in very sub par #67 FSU and the average there is #52 - pretty damn close. Going with a more typically average opponent (#48 GT) makes the average ranking #47. The upshot here is, since joining the ACC, the UofL and UK SOS has been basically equal.

Whew! Longest post ever. I'm worn out!

Peace

I'll give UofL credit for usually scheduling 1 decent OOC opponent outside of Kentucky...(Houston, Bama, Notre Dame) and that gives you guys a boost in the SOS. We won't schedule a super stout OOC opponent...or even an Indiana type team.

UofL ACC Schedule
Clemson
FSU
NC State
Syracuse
Weak Forrest
Boston College
Virginia
And a rotating Divisional Opponent (Miami, UNC, Va Tech, Duke, Ga Tech, Pitt)

UK SEC Schedule
Georgia
Florida
Tennessee
USCjr
Mizzou
Vandy
Miss State
Rotating West (Bama, LSU, A&M, Ole Miss, Arkansas, Auburn)

Now I will say that any division in P5 football is hard. I think our top end is about the same...Clemson/Georgia are top teams with loads of talent, Florida/FSU have elite talent but have underachieved as of late. I think our middle teams aren't the best....but from a talent perspective it is such a grind. A lot of NFL size and speed on the field every week.


But as you've noticed about the non-Elite teams that don't have big time recruiting bases and history of winning....they've built their teams a certain way....

Mizzou, Kentucky, NC State, etc. and the others when they do win have focused on building a physical ball control team with depth that can last an entire schedule.

Charlie built a P5 roster and the UofL fans berated him over his boring ball control style and emphasis on physical line play....Bobby wanted to play fast and with style....but you can't do that in the ACC with a program like Louisville. Bobby could do that in a lower conference and at a school like Arkansas where he could bring in top talent....but Louisville in the ACC can't hold up an entire season playing fast against dominant lines. It wears you down and the collapse of 2016 happens. That exciting style was fun through the first half...but once film got out and injuries piled up...it couldn't last.

Satterthorpe...all joking aside....is the right kind of hire to build a sustainable product. Tough teams in the trenches that can last for 12 games. Maybe they won't be as exciting...maybe it won't give you hope of going to the NY6 soon....but it will provide stability and you all can move forward.

 

[jauk11]

Yeah, a glass half full of hard liquor, and half consumed!

No way, he had to have drank it all and had a few refills.

 

[jauk11]

I like how you said it nicely lol

Yes, but the truth is still the truth.

 

[jauk11]

I typically wait until I get my Phil Steele mag before making any personal predictions about how the forthcoming season looks. And I try not to talk about UofL over here unless they are the subject of the conversation. But since they are...

UofL was a horrible football team in 2018. Just horrible in virtually every aspect of play. 2-10 is an enormous drop off for a team that was an 8/9 game winner against basically the same schedule the previous 4 years. The real question is: Why?

Disregarding luck, I think Performance is the product of 2 factors - Talent and Coaching.

If you look at Talent from a bird's eye view, the UofL 2015-2018 Rival's classes averaged #30.5. For comparison purposes, the UK classes that same period averaged #29.8. (UK certainly had the edge in the 2014 classes but I'm not sure how many of those guys were around as 5th year seniors.)

Which brings us to Coaching. I'm not making excuses but CBP lost his dad (not just his dad but his "football mentor") last year and I have heard rumors of a divorce. His UofL staff included his son and 2 son in laws, at least 2 of which had virtually no big time coaching experience.

Until the recent transfer surge UofL expected to return about 100 players from the 2018 roster, many from those "above average" recruiting classes. There are now about a dozen transfers on record, including maybe 3 or 4 who I thought would be key contributors this year.

But recruiting rankings are one thing and actual on field performance another. And regardless of rankings there are clearly some position holes on the current roster. Regarding 2019, the point is I have no idea how much "real" talent the new staff has to work with and no idea how that talent fits what they want to do. I suspect it will be very similar to UK's style - run the ball and play defense. But I have no idea how good they will be at it.

All that said, it brings me to the topic of the thread. Just this week I took a somewhat detailed look at UofL's schedule. It struck me it divided neatly into successive thirds of 4 games each. To that end:

1st 4 games (ND, EKU, WKU, @FSU): 3-1 would be miracle and 1-3 a disaster. Either result would have a big impact on the season overall but this clearly looks a like 2-2 start.

2nd 4 games (BC, @WF, Clem's Son, VA): IMO, the key part of the season. Clem's Son is a name-your-score game for the Tigers. At this time I have no idea about what returns for the other 3 but 2 of the games are at home. Can they find 2 wins here? 2-2 here would level the record to 4-4.

Last 4 games (@Miami, @NC St, 'Cuse and @UK): Clearly the toughest third of the schedule. 4 good teams, 3 on the road. Any win here would be a steal. Certainly looks like an 0-4 run as of today.

So until we start seeing actual 2019 games, it looks like 4-8; maybe 5-7 season to me.

Peace

Too much to say, I shouldn't even start.

First of all I usually enjoy your posts, and respect your football knowledge (and stats) but I think your posts have gone over to the dark side a bit, it is only natural to fight back if you are a fighter, and I think you are. You are are a little more skeptical of UK's progress than most fans.

UL has a multitude of problems, last years record one big obstacle, maybe you attract more fairly good recruits that want to play instead of ride the bench, but you aren't going to attract a lot of proven top talent. jurich, hurtt, and now even BP are gone, and they won't be returning. First not enough money left, and how much more are BP, Slick Rick, and jurich going to get? Shouldn't get any, but still, jurich wrote those contracts.

One big difference with your transfers, they aren't leaving because they want more playing time, they are leaving because they are deserting a sinking ship. And I can't imagine you are replacing many of them with better players. It is hard to say how much of last years collapse was due to a lack of talent, and how much to just giving up. We hired a pretty good coach in hindsight, the SEC COTY last year, and he only won two games coming off our two win season (caused by TEN years of woeful support, your collapse came in ONE year) and he added three four stars AND some other talent to the roster as soon as he took over. I can guarantee MOST UK fans would have never predicted our two losses to WKU, not counting some very close calls against EKU. I'm not sure your situation for next year is a lot better, but then I don't follow your team that closely. Hard to say how much of your record last year was due to attitude and how much was due to talent level, but looks to me like your talent level will be even lower this year.

But congratulations, you are an optimist, and optimists live longer, I just proved that, just turned 81. Your prediction of four wins is not at all unrealistic, unlike some of the posters on the thread, football is a funny game, but how in the hell can some of those predict as few as four wins for UK, our OOC schedule almost guarantees us four wins, where I can see the possibility of BOTH East and West Kentucky players saying "they sposed to be ACC" after playing you guys. Most of your posters seem to be completely out of touch with what UK has been doing, if they consider a bad UK record a good thing (and seems like almost all of them do) then the optimist that predicted UK only wins FOUR games should live to be 120. We "should" cover the four wins in our OOC game.

 

[bluecoon1]

Nice post Jack.

 

[dvillecatfan]

Wouldn't bother me if they lost every game.

 

[gossie21]

Nor did I. FWIW, I saw a 10-3 SEC team that was (I believe) 2-2 vs final AP Top 25 competition.

Might want to get your eyes checked. They were also 3-2 against the final Coaches Top-25 and 4-2 against the final CFP Rankings. But using the one Poll to show the weakest ranking is more "on brand" for you.

 

[Caveman Catfan]

I'll give UofL credit for usually scheduling 1 decent OOC opponent outside of Kentucky...(Houston, Bama, Notre Dame) and that gives you guys a boost in the SOS. We won't schedule a super stout OOC opponent...or even an Indiana type team.

UofL ACC Schedule
Clemson
FSU
NC State
Syracuse
Weak Forrest
Boston College
Virginia
And a rotating Divisional Opponent (Miami, UNC, Va Tech, Duke, Ga Tech, Pitt)

UK SEC Schedule
Georgia
Florida
Tennessee
USCjr
Mizzou
Vandy
Miss State
Rotating West (Bama, LSU, A&M, Ole Miss, Arkansas, Auburn)

Now I will say that any division in P5 football is hard. I think our top end is about the same...Clemson/Georgia are top teams with loads of talent, Florida/FSU have elite talent but have underachieved as of late. I think our middle teams aren't the best....but from a talent perspective it is such a grind. A lot of NFL size and speed on the field every week.


But as you've noticed about the non-Elite teams that don't have big time recruiting bases and history of winning....they've built their teams a certain way....

Mizzou, Kentucky, NC State, etc. and the others when they do win have focused on building a physical ball control team with depth that can last an entire schedule.

Charlie built a P5 roster and the UofL fans berated him over his boring ball control style and emphasis on physical line play....Bobby wanted to play fast and with style....but you can't do that in the ACC with a program like Louisville. Bobby could do that in a lower conference and at a school like Arkansas where he could bring in top talent....but Louisville in the ACC can't hold up an entire season playing fast against dominant lines. It wears you down and the collapse of 2016 happens. That exciting style was fun through the first half...but once film got out and injuries piled up...it couldn't last.

Satterthorpe...all joking aside....is the right kind of hire to build a sustainable product. Tough teams in the trenches that can last for 12 games. Maybe they won't be as exciting...maybe it won't give you hope of going to the NY6 soon....but it will provide stability and you all can move forward.

Just a mild qualification to your post. Notre Dame is an ACC rotational team for UL. As a member of the ACC, UL gets ND every 5 or so years. I don’t think they scheduled Bama, I think ESPN scheduled that game when it took UGA away from them a couple of years before, if I recall correctly. As to Houston, I actually think UL got Houston at a bad moment, rather than being bold with its schedule. Kind of like Purdue catching Eastern Mich last year. Not bold, but unlucky.

 

[WildCard]

Might want to get your eyes checked. They were also 3-2 against the final Coaches Top-25 and 4-2 against the final CFP Rankings. But using the one Poll to show the weakest ranking is more "on brand" for you.

My bad. Yes, 3-2 against the AP Top 26 and 4-2 against the final Sagarin Top 18.

Peace

 

[Caveman Catfan]

It’s so hard for Wildcard. UL was a bad FCS football team. UK came out of the best conference in the country to be one of the best teams in the country.

JOY!!

 

[UKRob 73]

UL was a very bad team last year, they lost over 30 players from last year's team . A team that was very thin already. And out of those 30 players, several were transfers that were very good players. I'm just not sure you can have anything but a poor season with that roster.

 

[bigdaddy741]

If UL wins 6 games next year I'll do things to EVERY UL fan that opposes my sexual orientation.

And I like chicks.

 

[STUCKNBIG10]

I saw nothing in my earlier post that I would call "needling". However, I am pretty thick skinned.



Thank you guys. I try hard to be objective - on both boards - and sometimes catch a little grief (more here than Cardinal boards). I hope you guys are not trashed for your compliments.





I agree with the above 2 posts and concur that both offensive and defensive football begins on the line.

Interestingly enough, in those "even recruiting years" noted in my earlier post, the Cards recruited 16 OLs and 18 DLs and UK recruited 17 OLs and 18 DLs in that 2015-2018 cycle. I'm too lazy to dig up individual rankings and status but that's pretty close as far as numbers go. Raw talent and development are 2 different things. There is no doubt that O-line coaching in his second term was much more disjointed than in his first term. I really don't know who is left at either school (2019 OL and DL) but it clearly favors UK.


One?


Nor did I. FWIW, I saw a 10-3 SEC team that was (I believe) 2-2 vs final AP Top 25 competition.


Well, that's what site writers (and hard core fans) usually project.


Anyone who says that is either a hard core hater (plenty on each side) or simply doesn't know squat about the game (lots of those on each side as well).


Not arguing; just trying to take a bird's eye look at the talent on hand question. For what little it is worth, Phil Steele had UofL #31 in his 2018 pre-season power numbers but had them #46 in his post season projections. UK was #75 pre-season and unranked (i.e., not in his top 60 post season projection). The only "point" here is UK did much better than "expected" and UofL did much worse.


Well IDK about that. But I do know it was an 11-1 FL team ranked #3 in the country going into the game against a 10-2 UofL team ranked #21.


Thank you. But I don't see a lot of red in my earlier post. I am only penciling in 2 wins. The other 2 (or maybe even 3 ) wins would have to come over teams that, right now, I think are average at best and may be beatable at home. We will see how it goes.


Certainly UofL's best records have come against "weaker" schedules. Probably true for most teams. And it has been a longggg climb to get a spot in a P5 conference. But for the 4 SEC "bottom feeders" you mention the average final Sagarin ranking for those teams is #46. You mention UVA twice for the UofL opponents. I'll sub in very sub par #67 FSU and the average there is #52 - pretty damn close. Going with a more typically average opponent (#48 GT) makes the average ranking #47. The upshot here is, since joining the ACC, the UofL and UK SOS has been basically equal.

Whew! Longest post ever. I'm worn out!

Peace

RE: your last point; the sad thing for UL is that they just do not have many wins over good teams, even in your best years. You have UF in the sugar bowl and FSU at home for the gameday game. That's about it. Hence, I repeat my point that most of UL's success is a bit of a myth built on the back of weak schedules.

 

[tmuck]

KPT= Kentucky's Playtoy. Bucktooth Scott is Krag's 2.0.