Looking ahead to UK Football 2018 Schedule

[WildCard]

I've been looking for some stats to refute reflaine's above post...can't really find any!

The Cats were #115 in plays/game this year (65.2) but were #58 in points/play (.390). The national median for plays/game was 71.9 and .382 for points/play. IOW, they did a pretty good job of "getting something from nothing".

And that was due in no small part to MacGinnis. The Cats were #86 in RZ opportunities (only 42) but #10 in RZ scoring % (92.9%) once there. He was #7 nationally in both FGA and FGM. FWIW, he averaged 7.8 PPG (second to Snell's 8.9 PPG) for a team that averaged just 25.5 PPG (#87 nationally).

That said, I totally agree with TB's basic point that playing in a manner that keeps a score down (edit) is a good way to lose games you shouldn't. UK only out-snapped 4 teams this year: SC (+16), Ole Myth (+3), Vandy (+1) and GA (+2).

Peace

 

[Oldtrainer]

I've been looking for some stats to refute reflaine's above post...can't really find any!

The Cats were #115 in plays/game this year (65.2) but were #58 in points/play (.390). The national median for plays/game was 71.9 and .382 for points/play. IOW, they did a pretty good job of "getting something from nothing".

And that was due in no small part to MacGinnis. The Cats were #86 in RZ opportunities (only 42) but #10 in RZ scoring % (92.9%) once there. He was #7 nationally in both FGA and FGM. FWIW, he averaged 7.8 PPG (second to Snell's 8.9 PPG) for a team that averaged just 25.5 PPG (#87 nationally).
That said, I totally agree with TB's basic point that playing in a manner that keeps a score close is a good way to lose games you shouldn't. UK only out-snapped 4 teams this year: SC (+16), Ole Myth (+3), Vandy (+1 and GA (+2).
Peace

I wouldn't have a clue about UK stats if not for you. I'm eternally grateful for your impute.

 

[sluggercatfan]

I've been looking for some stats to refute reflaine's above post...can't really find any!

The Cats were #115 in plays/game this year (65.2) but were #58 in points/play (.390). The national median for plays/game was 71.9 and .382 for points/play. IOW, they did a pretty good job of "getting something from nothing".

And that was due in no small part to MacGinnis. The Cats were #86 in RZ opportunities (only 42) but #10 in RZ scoring % (92.9%) once there. He was #7 nationally in both FGA and FGM. FWIW, he averaged 7.8 PPG (second to Snell's 8.9 PPG) for a team that averaged just 25.5 PPG (#87 nationally).

That said, I totally agree with TB's basic point that playing in a manner that keeps a score close is a good way to lose games you shouldn't. UK only out-snapped 4 teams this year: SC (+16), Ole Myth (+3), Vandy (+1 and GA (+2).

Peace

Good info WC...I know you like to throw jabs at UK program being a U6 fan , but this info is self explanatory about what the BIGGEST problem is with the program. Sadly some still won't get it and why I posted the article about Ala earlier.

 

[FrankUnderwood]

No Alabama, Auburn, or LSU. MisSt, UL, and Fla will be rebuilding seasons.

With these rare factors equating into it the BBN should expect NO worse than a 7-5 season when we have an Uber experienced defense and a stud, experienced QB coming in to control our offense. Anything less is a big disappointment and should put MS on a hot seat.

My brain tells me MS will never get our defense disciplined enough to be successful against good teams, and without a competent defense you can’t beat talented, well COACHED teams even if they are fringe top 40. Therefore, I predict 6-6 and if I’m correct I pray the BBN grows a pair and pressures Mitch to move on a HC.

My heart tells me we go 11-1 with our only loss being a last second heart breaker to Georgia. EVERY other game on the schedule is winnable, wether it’s new coaches or teams that are rebuilding, EVERY game but UGA, we have big advantages that should equate to wins.

11-1 is absurd lol. Even for your heart. Not even a remote possibility. I wouldn’t exactly call UL “winnable” either considering they totally embarrassed us last time we played

 

[FrankUnderwood]

Good info WC...I know you like to throw jabs at UK program being a U6 fan , but this info is self explanatory about what the BIGGEST problem is with the program. Sadly some still won't get it and why I posted the article about Ala earlier.

It’s cute that you and WildCard seem to be good friends.

 

[FrankUnderwood]

“ Ole Myth” isn’t a very clever nickname for Ole Miss? Seems corny.


Unfortunately, I see us going 5-7 or 6-6 this year.

 

[reflaine]

I agree that this is what Stoops is doing but I don't agree that it's wise football. Keeping the score close is the best way to lose games you shouldn't. You probably still won't win the games you shouldn't any more often but the occasional slip ups against a Southern Miss or similar team will happen more often. I get it that it's old school defensive minded football but it's also the reason a lot of defensive minded coaches get fired a lot.

Also the reason we have won games recently maps more directly to Benny Snell than it does slowing the game down. Let's see how this system works after he leaves. Even Elliot Uzelac looked like a genius when he had Moe Williams. Playing a system that requires a once in a life time player isn't the formula for success. Also keep in mind closer games against lesser teams means your starters log more minutes, you get less reps for your backups and your main guys get more wear and tear. There is also a reason the last half of the season under Stoops features are lot of 0 for 6 and 1 for 5 type records during the last 6 games. Imagine where we would have been if Stephen Johnson didn't have to get as beat up as he was.

Over the past two seasons, since we have went to this style, how many games have we lost that we shouldn’t against teams that are less talented than us. Stoops record in one score games is actually very good.

The only game I see where we lost one we shouldn’t of by playing this way was maybe Florida. But on paper when we played at the time we played, was we better than they were, or did playing our style allow us to be in position we would be in?

Last season we lost to USM early, but was that because of the style we play now?



On paper should we of beat EMU more than we did yes, but that same exact style beat a USC team that’s better than us past two seasons.

We had no big playmakers on offense, that makes playing in shootouts very hard. Benny as great as he is, isn’t a big play guy. This offense really lacked one and why any penelty was pretty much a drive killer.

The reason for the bad records in the second half of the season can be directly attributed to the back half of schedule being much more difficult nearly every year. Over the last four seasons the last half of season we have only lost to three teams that won less than eight games (at Tennessee in 2014, at Vandy in 2015 (should of won), and ole miss this season was 6-6). In 2014 alone the record of the last six opponents was 55-23 with three ten win teams. We also beat a heisman winner late in season also.

I know it’s not exciting football, but it has been effective football. Talent wise we are probably no better than 11th in the SEC. THats the fact of the matter, but Stoops and company have found a way to play respectable football, keep themselves in the race of the east into November since going this way. And have back to back records that is very good by our history.

How many players on this years team start and half of the sec teams? That’s an honest question (I’ll start a thread separate, but thought to ponder on how it talent actually is).

 

[sluggercatfan]

It’s cute that you and WildCard seem to be good friends.

What a Joke you and your pumper buddies are...LOL. This is probably the first thing he and I have ever agreed on! Because you , 11 and a couple disagree dosen' t mean he isn't right. Pretty pathetic actually. OOPS SORRY I owe you an apology!

 

[railroadkat_1]

No reason for me to make a prediction 7 and 1/2 months. UK needs to sign another Running Back in the worst way. Open up the offense and score more points please. GBB...........BBN.........I'm a believer!

 

[FrankUnderwood]

What a Joke you and your pumper buddies are...LOL. This is probably the first thing he and I have ever agreed on! Because you , 11 and a couple disagree dosen' t mean he isn't right. Pretty pathetic actually. OOPS SORRY I owe you an apology!

How am i a pumper ? I predicted 6-6 this last year and predict 4-6 wins for next year...

 

[sluggercatfan]

How am i a pumper ? I predicted 6-6 this last year and predict 4-6 wins for next year...

I apologized...you not see it!! Again I'm sorry

 

[Deeeefense]

This blogger provides a little bit of info on each of our opponents next year in his predictions. He has us with 6 wins, 3 losses and 3 toss up games

Link

 

[WildCard]

“ Ole Myth” isn’t a very clever nickname for Ole Miss? Seems corny.

Are you fairly new to SEC football? The "Ole Myth" tag has been around for decades. I don't know when the tag started but I suspect sometime after fans realized Mississippi football was not as good as it was in the Johnny Vaught era which ended in 1970.

Peace

 

[FrankUnderwood]

Are you fairly new to SEC football? The "Ole Myth" tag has been around for decades. I don't know when the tag started but I suspect sometime after fans realized Mississippi football was not as good as it was in the Johnny Vaught era which ended in 1970.

Peace

I understand but things change over the course of 50 years

 

[jauk11]

I agree that this is what Stoops is doing but I don't agree that it's wise football. Keeping the score close is the best way to lose games you shouldn't. You probably still won't win the games you shouldn't any more often but the occasional slip ups against a Southern Miss or similar team will happen more often. I get it that it's old school defensive minded football but it's also the reason a lot of defensive minded coaches get fired a lot.

Also the reason we have won games recently maps more directly to Benny Snell than it does slowing the game down. Let's see how this system works after he leaves. Even Elliot Uzelac looked like a genius when he had Moe Williams. Playing a system that requires a once in a life time player isn't the formula for success. Also keep in mind closer games against lesser teams means your starters log more minutes, you get less reps for your backups and your main guys get more wear and tear. There is also a reason the last half of the season under Stoops features are lot of 0 for 6 and 1 for 5 type records during the last 6 games. Imagine where we would have been if Stephen Johnson didn't have to get as beat up as he was.

Look at where our roster on D is, compared to where it was when Stoops took over, I think this D with practically everyone back (lose ONE starter???) AND a lot more depth won't have to be tired that much, I see a lot more four and outs by the other team and less length of the field drives.

We had ONE four star on D when Stoops took over, and he was never a starter, seldom used, we could easily start ELEVEN four stars on D this year IF that was what mattered, but this staff has developed some TWO stars (not to mention three stars) that are going to be high draft picks also, can you see keeping Bohanna and Josh off the field on D?

We could have several "once in a lifetime players" on this team before it is over, most of them just getting started or not even here yet, AND there could be some on offense as well as defense.

 

[jauk11]

Oh I forgot. The university of Kentucky and yes it's Football program isn't one of the founding members of the SEC. But hey 80 years and your fine with the fact the program is still in diapers.

Sorry, but don't be putting words in my mouth. And I won't be 80 for three more months, get your facts straight.

 

[ok-cats-computer]

I can see the Cats with 6 wins going into the Georgia game. We should be bowl eligible at least by the Louisville game.

 

[SmokinGun9]

I see 8 wins, possibly 9. This team next year will have a veteran defense, an improved offensive line, a dynamic new quarterback and an All American running back. People always assume that we won't get better over the offseason. Bowden, Conrad, Baker, very capable receivers, all we need is consistency

 

[gojvc]

Our style of play also makes games closer than they should be against lesser teams. We play a system that shortens the game, keeps defense off the field. That’s our MO. I think That is also our best style of play to win most of the games we play. I don’t trust our offense to have to score 40 a game to win in a shootout very many times, and I don’t trust our defense to get enough stops, with a lack of depth late in games in shootouts to make up a score or two difference.

You can’t play one way against Teams with more talent than you, and then switch it against teams you are more talented than.

The southern miss game was a one score ballgame, but we also fumbled our first possession on the five going in, and took a knee at the one yard line to end the game. If you watched that game it was pretty clear that USM wasn’t going to move the vall hardly at all on our defense. Play smart, play field position, and take advantage of their mistake (scoop and score)

EM game was same way after the first possession. We give them a free TD to start the game (Florida hangover more than anything IMO) then they needed a trick play to score against us.

But for us to compete with a lot of teams in sec we need the game to be as short as possible. Because we have a talent defencincy (and a great kicker) where we feel if close we have an advantage. Problem is we have to play that same exact style (it’s who we was this past season) on teams we are more talented than. Switching up tempo and schemes isn’t the smart thing to do week to week. This shortens the game and also keeps them in it longer than they should be.

Since adopting this style we have won more than we lost. So hard to argue with the results.

While I still disagree with your ultimate conclusion I’ll give you credit. You are at least honest about acknowledging that it’s a deliberate choice by Stoops to play this style of football. That’s more than most pumpers will do. So there’s at least a foundation for a rational discussion.

 

[reflaine]

While I still disagree with your ultimate conclusion I’ll give you credit. You are at least honest about acknowledging that it’s a deliberate choice by Stoops to play this style of football. That’s more than most pumpers will do. So there’s at least a foundation for a rational discussion.

It’s not the exact way I want to play moving forward, but it’s hard to argue against with the current roster and where we stand from a talent standpoint.

I want to score 50 and hold teams scoreless as much as the rest of us, but I also want to win games. With Austin I belt very comfortable is game came down to a point or two. Was it pretty no, but I cann’t argue that it wasn’t the right way we shouldnt be playing either. As bad as I hate it, I agree that style of play was our best to have a successful season the past two.

 

[SanAntonioCat]

https://ukfansallday.com/2018/01/10/looking-ahead-to-uk-footballs-2018-schedule/

5-7...6-6 @ best

And, thank you for your support.

 

[thepip]

Thought for a good while 2018 season would be coach Stoops best.
But imo he must take over the defense! Fundamentals were way below average!
Really like Benny, C.J., receivers, and o. line! Now qbs. Terry and/or Gunner need to step up! Think Spring practice and game will tell a lot about this position!
I reserve my guess on win/loss till fall practice is completed.

Spring practice has nothing to do with football,it is just for the fans. Proof of my point; how many have looked good in the spring game and then never to be seen again?

 

[jauk11]

Spring practice has nothing to do with football,it is just for the fans. Proof of my point; how many have looked good in the spring game and then never to be seen again?

Spring football has a lot to do with the coaches finding out what they have and getting the players to improve.

 

[Caveman Catfan]

Fans always bemoan coaches who do not adapt to their talent, but attempt to force a square peg into a round hole out of stubbornness or the inability to be flexible. But, when Gran did that with SJ and our OLine and a back like Snell, some people act like that is Gran’s style of play, even though there is ample evidence to demonstrate otherwise. Or, they act like it was Stoops who forced Gran to adapt after Barker was injured.

It is possible that we see a style of play not yet displayed by Gran if Wilson wins the job. He has similar attributes to SJ, but looks like he could be better in a spread option approach. It took SJ a while to become smooth in his decisionmaking and reads. And, his build and injuries did not encourage many set running plays, other than set RPO sweeps or, usually, an RPO QB sneak.

If Hoak wins the job, I expect an offense similar to what we saw Gran do at Cincy

If Walker wins the job, I expect an anarchy offense where jungle law is supreme. A Wild West melee.

 

[The-Hack]

The "Ole Myth" tag has been around for decades.

I prefer "Ole Piss," but it is uglier, for such a family forum as this.

Fans always bemoan coaches who do not adapt to their talent, but attempt to force a square peg into a round hole out of stubbornness or the inability to be flexible.

Yeah, since 1976, we've been to like 12 bowl games . . . . two of those bowl teams have had a [presumed] second string QB leading them, with a playing style radically different from the kid who got hurt: 2016 and 2017.

 

[Oldtrainer]

My SEC football memory goes way back. Till I read on this forum posted by a known troll 'Ole Myth' label I'd never seen before. As for me, University of Mississippi will always be 'The Rebs'!

 

[1991greywildcat]

Hopefully we will pass more this season and find another back to relief Benny some. He has took alot of hits in the SEC, he needs some help in games, from them and defense..