KY/ Louisville spread
- Thread starter Big Foot 275
- Start date
I'd bet itll be in the realm of -17 or -15. Somewhere in there. Would be higher if it wasn't a rivalry game.
Haven't seen the line yet, but I did find this little nugget.
Louisville is 5-5-1 against the spread this season compared to Kentucky’s 6-4-0 ATS record. In terms of hitting the over, games involving the Cardinals are 5-5-1 and the Wildcats are 7-3-0.
Over has to be around 155, just don’t know if UL can score 55?
Be careful when you ask about the spread with UL being involved. Katrina may show up.
FanDuel has it at UK -15.5
As expected, it's close to the KenPom predicted spread (UK by 13).
As expected, it's close to the KenPom predicted spread (UK by 13).
The milks gone bad!
That seems a teensy bit low, but I'm guessing they're going to try to pull in UK bettors and the line will move up.
Bet the house at that line.
Feels like there is still some skepticism about this UK team. Or some hesitancy about really trusting them. At least for now.
Probably. We deserve at least some pause because our defense still has a long way to go.
But, generally speaking, 15.5 is still a big spread in a rivalry game.
You also have to consider the apparent nuances with this particular game. Allegedly, UK fans will make up 70-75% of the total attendance, but officially it's a home game for UL. KenPom and the other computer metrics Vegas uses can't see that nuance with the crowd. KenPom has us winning by 13.
This was always going to be a weird game for Vegas, at least until the bets start rolling in.
Guys trust in DraftCats tomorrow is my Bday I'll be at the game and UK will win by 20+
Don't be afraid hammer the line lol
Don't be afraid hammer the line lol
I don't think it's actually at -11
Any website you can actually bet on is at -13 or -14.5
I wanted to read some of the sports prediction sites just to see what they say about the game. Here's a bit of what someone from winnersandwhiners.com has to say:
"However, in the last three meetings in Louisville, the Wildcats are 2-1 with the two victories won by just three points each game. I'm always wary of rivalry games regardless of the talent level and the inexperience of the Wildcats may very well come through in this game in what should be a very hostile environment in Louisville. This will be quite literally the first road experience in front of a hostile crowd for this freshman-laden squad."
and this:
"I like the Wildcats to prevail in this game but it will be tight.
Take Louisville with the points."
So basically the spread isn't greater because it's a rivalry game and most predictors haven't seen Louisville at home in front of a dead crowd and they don't know that Kenny will likely be fired on Friday.
"However, in the last three meetings in Louisville, the Wildcats are 2-1 with the two victories won by just three points each game. I'm always wary of rivalry games regardless of the talent level and the inexperience of the Wildcats may very well come through in this game in what should be a very hostile environment in Louisville. This will be quite literally the first road experience in front of a hostile crowd for this freshman-laden squad."
and this:
"I like the Wildcats to prevail in this game but it will be tight.
Take Louisville with the points."
So basically the spread isn't greater because it's a rivalry game and most predictors haven't seen Louisville at home in front of a dead crowd and they don't know that Kenny will likely be fired on Friday.
A hostile crowd? Dude that crowd is gonna be SUPER blue no way the Louisville fans even have more than 25% of the building.
Throw out all the norms and what should happens with a rivalry game like this.
UL isn’t as bad as some act and Payne is coaching for his life. They are desperate. I’d be shocked if it’s not a pretty close game for most of it with UK ultimately winning by 8-10
UL isn’t as bad as some act and Payne is coaching for his life. They are desperate. I’d be shocked if it’s not a pretty close game for most of it with UK ultimately winning by 8-10
Counterpoint:
Louisville was awful last year and we basically toyed with them. They're a bit better this year but I don't believe they'll be favored in any other game left on their schedule. That's an entire winter of playing the underdog. Kenny has no sense of urgency. He could be at Louisville until 2025 and still couldn't get them to the tournament. And what makes Louisville so desperate? Were they not desperate against Arkansas St.? We played Rick's teams fairly closely, winning unwatchable rock fights by 7-9 pts. it seemed. I really doubt tomorrow will be a rock fight or this Louisville team is going to keep it close until we luckily pull away.
I get it though. Louisville won in 1997 as a big underdog and we've won as a big underdog in football. But our boys turn it on against Louisville in both sports and won't sleep walk through tomorrow or let them hang around. We won't win by an absurd amount like 40 but I'd be shocked if the final score is like 71-63.
Louisville was awful last year and we basically toyed with them. They're a bit better this year but I don't believe they'll be favored in any other game left on their schedule. That's an entire winter of playing the underdog. Kenny has no sense of urgency. He could be at Louisville until 2025 and still couldn't get them to the tournament. And what makes Louisville so desperate? Were they not desperate against Arkansas St.? We played Rick's teams fairly closely, winning unwatchable rock fights by 7-9 pts. it seemed. I really doubt tomorrow will be a rock fight or this Louisville team is going to keep it close until we luckily pull away.
I get it though. Louisville won in 1997 as a big underdog and we've won as a big underdog in football. But our boys turn it on against Louisville in both sports and won't sleep walk through tomorrow or let them hang around. We won't win by an absurd amount like 40 but I'd be shocked if the final score is like 71-63.
I just hammered it at UK -13.5. When I say hammer it I mean $500. The most I'll ever bet on a game, but we should win by 30. Assuming we win, I'm taking my friends to Moonlite on Friday for the buffet. A bunch of old men love a buffet where you can get ribs, mutton, and burgoo.
Not going to touch the line bet,just never know about a Rivalry game. The Under is what I might look at. Not sure how well UL will score and you got to figure Cal not going to run up the score on Kenny if it comes to that in last 4-8 minutes.
There's 1 thing we know for certain... Everyone thought this line would be around 18/20 and when Vegas throws a curve ball at ya, most of the time there's a reason.
Refs will control this game and some will never even notice. I see UK getting out and covering the spread by halftime, but the 2nd half u of L will bring it back to 9/10 point deficit
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