Help Me Reason Through This Bowl Stuff . . .

[The-Hack]

The SEC now has the following 5 teams ranked as follows by the Committee: LSU 2nd, Georgia 4th, Florida 9th, Auburn 11th and Bama 12th.

That puts 5 SEC teams knocking on the door of the Top 11 spots, and Wisconsin is likely to lose to Ohio State, in the Big Ten conference title game, dropping then to 10-3, and likely sliding them below both Auburn and Bama.

If Georgia beats LSU, they likely both make the playoffs.

If so, and if OSU beats Wisconsin, how can the SEC miss out on getting 5 NYD6 bowl teams, leaving only UK, UT, A & M and State to fill Citrus and the Group of Six Bowls?

[Going a step farther, Oklahoma is 6th and Baylor 7th. They play in the Big Twelve championship game. Would a loss by either drop them 5 or six spots??

Bama’s close loss on the road to Auburn dropped them from 5th to 12th!]

 

[billoliver40]

Lol.man, Hack....I dunno. I've seen some folks putting Wisconsin in the MCB....and I just don't see it.
KSR earlier had most money saying UK in the Gator or MCB. Bell on the outside.
I'm like you in with all the time ins I think there's gonna be more in the NY6 than a couple.

I know we get a playoff and the Sugar and I would bet Orange and Cotton are in play.

 

[why_not_kentucky]

I do believe you got it covered.

 

[Johnfarrel]

They dropped Bama to 12th because Bama without Tua is not not the Bama of old. If Georgia beats LSU, both will definitely make the playoffs. Ge oil rigs loses and Utah is in. They desperately want a West Coast team in the playoffs. They are t uh red if teams East of the Mississippi dominating.

 

[weezul]

247 now has us in the Liberty vs Texas after tonight's rankings.

 

[The-Hack]

They dropped Bama to 12th

I think it’s BS that they dropped that far, the committee obviously trying to keep the number of NYD6 bowl teams from the SEC down to a reasonable number.

 

[The-Hack]

247 now has us in the Liberty vs Texas after tonight's rankings.

Personally, I would love it if we get Liberty, as I can make it a very reasonable trip.

But if we do Liberty, then we and the SEC are leaving TS/Gator out at about the same payout as the Liberty, or the MCB or Texas or Belk out at a significantly higher payout.

 

[greginky1957]

Hey Hack, where did your thread on bowl game payouts go? I was looking for it today but couldn't find it

 

[The-Hack]

Hey Hack, where did your thread on bowl game payouts go? I was looking for it today but couldn't find it

I’ll look for it: posted after Vandy Win.

[Brought it back up!]

 

[The-Hack]

Here are the payouts for this year’s G6 bowls (plus Citrus):

1. Citrus, 8.550 million.

2. Outback, 6.350 million.

3. Texas, 6.326 million.

4. MusicCity, 5.650 million

5. Belk, 4.505 million

6. Liberty, 4.294 million

7. Gator, 3.168 million.

 

[STUCKNBIG10]

The consensus seems to be that tonight's rankings are bad news for UK. Auburn and Alabama being outside of top 10 means that both can drop to Citrus / Outback. That would push everyone down a rung and UT would likely get the gator over us.

IF UL goes to Music city (there's an article in today's curious urinal that Music wants them), then UK won't go there. Liberty sucks, but it would be cool to play texas. And I think UK could win that game.

 

[bigblueinsanity]

I think it’s BS that they dropped that far, the committee obviously trying to keep the number of NYD6 bowl teams from the SEC down to a reasonable number.

Absolutely. No way they should've dropped that far. A missed fg away from beating a great team on the road

 

[WildcatofNati]

The consensus seems to be that tonight's rankings are bad news for UK. Auburn and Alabama being outside of top 10 means that both can drop to Citrus / Outback. That would push everyone down a rung and UT would likely get the gator over us.

IF UL goes to Music city (there's an article in today's curious urinal that Music wants them), then UK won't go there. Liberty sucks, but it would be cool to play texas. And I think UK could win that game.

It's hard to envision Auburn failing to make NY6 absent an earthshattering Wisconsin win over Ohio St. Assuming Ohio St. beats Wisconsin, Auburn probably is safe in the top 10 (maybe Wisconsin doesn't drop below if they keep it super close but I doubt that and I doubt they keep it close anyway), even with the Virginia and the midmajor being assured two spots. Unless there is another locked up spot that I don't know about?

 

[STUCKNBIG10]

It's hard to envision Auburn failing to make NY6 absent an earthshattering Wisconsin win over Ohio St. Assuming Ohio St. beats Wisconsin, Auburn probably is safe in the top 10 (maybe Wisconsin doesn't drop below if they keep it super close but I doubt that and I doubt they keep it close anyway), even with the Virginia and the midmajor being assured two spots. Unless there is another locked up spot that I don't know about?

Fair point, but the committee is giving Wisconsin and Penn State wayyyyyy too much love

 

[The-Hack]

Fair point, but the committee is giving Wisconsin and Penn State wayyyyyy too much love

Yeah, Bama is 10-2, and Whisky and Penn State are 10-2.

Bama is the 4th (lowest) among the top ranked teams with 2 losses. Whisky, Penn State and Florida each have two losses, and are higher ranked.

Bama’s sins: a 5 point home loss to LSU (2nd) and a 3 point road loss to Auburn (11). I can’t see how the other two loss teams could be above Bama.

 

[LosGatos]

The SEC now has the following 5 teams ranked as follows by the Committee: LSU 2nd, Georgia 4th, Florida 9th, Auburn 11th and Bama 12th.

That puts 5 SEC teams knocking on the door of the Top 11 spots, and Wisconsin is likely to lose to Ohio State, in the Big Ten conference title game, dropping then to 10-3, and likely sliding them below both Auburn and Bama.

If Georgia beats LSU, they likely both make the playoffs.

If so, and if OSU beats Wisconsin, how can the SEC miss out on getting 5 NYD6 bowl teams, leaving only UK, UT, A & M and State to fill Citrus and the Group of Six Bowls?


( I'm not convinced Wisconsin would have to drop below Auburn and Bama. Guess it will depend on the score. Even if they lose, the Rose Bowl may still pick them ahead of Penn St. If so, Penn St ranked ahead of both Bama and Auburn, will get a NY6 bowl.)

[Going a step farther, Oklahoma is 6th and Baylor 7th. They play in the Big Twelve championship game. Would a loss by either drop them 5 or six spots??

(Again the loser would have to drop below the three SEC teams, else they get a NY6 bowl ahead of the SEC teams.

The other problem is Utah. If they lose the PAC-12 championship game they still might be ranked ahead of Bama and Auburn. ).

Bama’s close loss on the road to Auburn dropped them from 5th to 12th!]

Yep, and I think it's very unlikely they get a NY6 bowl even with an UGa win.

 

[weezul]

I'm liking CBS's latest much better... Gator vs Michigan

https://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/bowls/predictions

 

[LosGatos]

Yeah, Bama is 10-2, and Whisky and Penn State are 10-2.

Bama is the 4th (lowest) among the top ranked teams with 2 losses. Whisky, Penn State and Florida each have two losses, and are higher ranked.

Bama’s sins: a 5 point home loss to LSU (2nd) and a 3 point road loss to Auburn (11). I can’t see how the other two loss teams could be above Bama.

How about a the loser of the Big-12 or Pac-12? I can see either ranked ahead of Bama and Auburn.

 

[The-Hack]

I'm liking CBS's latest much better... Gator vs Michigan

And that projection has both Bama and Auburn out of the NYD6 bowls, but slates UT into the MCB.

Even though MCB pays higher than Gator, I can hear the howl from Knoxville if we end up in Florida and they end up in balmy Nashville!

 

[LosGatos]

And that projection has both Bama and Auburn out of the NYD6 bowls, but slates UT into the MCB.

Even though MCB pays higher than Gator, I can hear the howl from Knoxville if we end up in Florida and they end up in balmy Nashville!

Yes indeed.

One detail I just saw on VolNation, if the bowl payout is over 4M the SEC teams get to keep more of the money. Thus it's financially better to go to any of the other gang of six bowls instead of Gator. .

 

[The-Hack]

Thus it's financially better to go to any of the other gang of six bowls instead of Gator. .

Let ‘em have the MCB, then, and we’ll take the hit in the Gator!

 

[The-Hack]

There is a story that MCB really wants Louisville and UT.

If the MCB is set on U of L, that would eliminate Kentucky from playing there. Also, a couple of years ago, I read that the Group of Six bowls and the SEC offices preferred no repeats, or “twice-in-three-year” appearances. We played in Nashville in 2017, so that would militate against Nashville for us.

The UT thread regarding the MCB wanting UT is interesting: 60 percent are angry by the thought and 40 percent are thanking God for a bowl!

 

[LosGatos]

There is a story that MCB really wants Louisville and UT.

If the MCB is set on U of L, that would eliminate Kentucky from playing there. Also, a couple of years ago, I read that the Group of Six bowls and the SEC offices preferred no repeats, or “twice-in-three-year” appearances. We played in Nashville in 2017, so that would militate against Nashville for us.

The UT thread regarding the MCB wanting UT is interesting: 60 percent are angry by the thought and 40 percent are thanking God for a bowl!

Your read of the no repeat/twice in three is my understanding as well.

 

[KyCatFan]

With the new playoff rankings I am going to take another shot at guessing everything.

Playoff - OSU vs Georgia
Playoff - LSU vs Clemson
Sugar - Florida vs Oklahoma
Rose - Utah vs Wisconsin
Orange - Virginia vs Penn State
Cotton - Baylor vs Memphis
Citrus - Auburn vs Minnesota
Outback - Alabama vs Michigan
Texas - A&M vs Texas (KSU 1 game better)
MCB - Kentucky vs Virginia Tech
Gator - Tennessee vs Iowa
Liberty - Miss State vs KSU
Belk - not filled

Who knows if this is even close as of right now? Of course all of the conference championship games can change things up. I'm not sure if any of them will help the SEC much if at all.

If Georgia beats LSU then everything probably stays the same. If Georgia loses then they probably fall to Sugar and Florida moves to Orange.

Maybe the loser of Oklahoma/Baylor will help an SEC team with the Cotton but I think it would benefit Penn State more. So I am guessing the SEC only ends up with 3 in the Playoff/NY6 and that ultimately knocks us down a spot.

 

[R.O.T.Muckinfush]

Personally, I would love it if we get Liberty, as I can make it a very reasonable trip.

But if we do Liberty, then we and the SEC are leaving TS/Gator out at about the same payout as the Liberty, or the MCB or Texas or Belk out at a significantly higher payout.

I like the liberty bowl as an option too.
Liberty bowl is 1.15 million dollars better payout than gator bowl. Wouldn't call that "about the same"

 

[Caveman Catfan]

I think it’s BS that they dropped that far, the committee obviously trying to keep the number of NYD6 bowl teams from the SEC down to a reasonable number.

i here ya, but who has Bama beaten? Sure, the Auburn game was close, but not a win and Auburn is not a playoff team. Bama has no significant wins, IMO. Other 2 loss teams have better victories.

 

[HalHR2500]

There are several teams that could drop below Auburn or Alabama

Notably Oklahoma-Baylor loser and Wisconsin if they lose

 

[The-Hack]

Other 2 loss teams have better victories.

I see your point, but a 7 spot drop for a single score road game to a rival?

 

[jauk11]

Absolutely. No way they should've dropped that far. A missed fg away from beating a great team on the road

A missed FG that was HIGH off the side post. VERY close, NOT blocked, NOT one they normally miss.

 

[jauk11]

Personally, I would love it if we get Liberty, as I can make it a very reasonable trip.

But if we do Liberty, then we and the SEC are leaving TS/Gator out at about the same payout as the Liberty, or the MCB or Texas or Belk out at a significantly higher payout.

Money wise I'm not sure it matters that much which bowl we go to if it is one of the lower ones, we would only get 2/14th of the payout, the rest distributed to the other SEC schools. But then we would get a LOT more back from all the other SEC bowl games. I have read that an SEC team going to a lower bowl doesn't get enough from their payout to pay expenses, but they they all add to the common pot and make the other conferences teams green with envy. Except maybe Tulane, they are already green.

 

[jauk11]

Wow. Always thought the Gator Bowl was one of the leaders, maybe a sign of my age.

 

[jauk11]

Money wise I'm not sure it matters that much which bowl we go to if it is one of the lower ones, we would only get 2/14th of the payout, the rest distributed to the other SEC schools. But then we would get a LOT more back from all the other SEC bowl games. I have read that an SEC team going to a lower bowl doesn't get enough from their payout to pay expenses, but then they all add to the common pot and make the other conferences teams green with envy. Except maybe Tulane, they are already green.

 

[KyCatFan]

Money wise I'm not sure it matters that much which bowl we go to if it is one of the lower ones, we would only get 2/14th of the payout, the rest distributed to the other SEC schools. But then we would get a LOT more back from all the other SEC bowl games. I have read that an SEC team going to a lower bowl doesn't get enough from their payout to pay expenses, but they they all add to the common pot and make the other conferences teams green with envy. Except maybe Tulane, they are already green.

You must have missed my post the other day. You get substantially more than 2/14ths according to what is in my post below.

It's a factor when all bowls aren't filled. If you have a $6 million bowl and a $3 million bowl you get $3 million less dollars to share amongst the conference if for some reason that $6 million bowl wasn't selected (that would be an extreme case). Even without that you still get a bigger share of the bowl you are selected to.

So for the Gator Bowl ($3.17 million), we would get $1.33 million for our share plus travel expenses. How much is that I don't know? Let's say it's $250k (just a random number). That would put us at $1.58 million for our share. The rest is split into 15 equal shares from $1.59 million which would be about $106k. The conference gets one share and I guess we would get another share with 14 shares left for 14 schools. That ends up with us getting around $1.69 million total.

If we went to the Belk Bowl ($4.5 million), we would get $1.5 million. Then throw in the travel expenses (again using a random amount $250k) gives us $1.75 million. That leaves $2.75 million to share at $183k a share. That extra share puts us at $1.93 million. That's an extra $180k more than the Gator.

If the Gator was selected over the Belk than that leaves the conference down that extra $1.33 million to share. While that isn't huge money it still is a chunk of lost revenue.

http://www.collegefootballpoll.com/bowl-schedule/2019/

 

[jauk11]

The consensus seems to be that tonight's rankings are bad news for UK. Auburn and Alabama being outside of top 10 means that both can drop to Citrus / Outback. That would push everyone down a rung and UT would likely get the gator over us.

IF UL goes to Music city (there's an article in today's curious urinal that Music wants them), then UK won't go there. Liberty sucks, but it would be cool to play texas. And I think UK could win that game.

If Transfer U were to go to the Music City Bowl and play Thug U it would be impossible to root for either of the cheaters. They disqualified the Thug U thug the first half of their bowl game for stepping on the players face (he knew the refs couldn't see it) AFTER the game was over. Their best player, by the way, one of their two excellent WRs. Thompson, the DB, freshman All American DB, was also charged with domestic assault before the season started, and of course he is out there like nothing happened. Maybe our FOURTH DEGEREE ASSAULT speedster that was kicked out of the state (probably) will be able to transfer to Thug U. I thought it was a classic that Prewitt complained about the ESPN complaint that he fired the medical staff in charge of giving the OK for players to play by saying he wasn't in charge of that. Guess who is? The AD, Phat Phil, lol.

And I don't know, it wouldn't be that bad to play Transfer U again, get to run all over them again, maybe Bowden would end up leading the nation in rushing, lol.

 

[jauk11]

How about a the loser of the Big-12 or Pac-12? I can see either ranked ahead of Bama and Auburn.

I can't. Bama lost without their #1 QB because of a gimme FGA that was high off the side pole AND a 100 yard interception return with an inexperienced QB. And whether the officials were right or not they were one second away from Auburn not getting the FG. I don't think Auburn is a better team.

 

[jauk11]

I like the liberty bowl as an option too.
Liberty bowl is 1.15 million dollars better payout than gator bowl. Wouldn't call that "about the same"

Absolutely. No way they should've dropped that far. A missed fg away from beating a great team on the road

A missed field goal that wasn't short, wasn't blocked, and hit the upright and went the wrong way HIGH on the pole, AND was a normal gimme for their kicker (shades of the Georgia kicker). Also ONE second from Auburn not getting their winning FG. Bama also played an inexperienced QB that threw a 100 yard interception AND another interception, still learning.

No doubt in my mind Bama is the better team regardless of the final score, but congrats to Auburn, another great SEC team.

But the upset that might have cost the SEC a second place in the playoffs (and quite a bit of moola, even to UK) was almost worth it to an SEC fan to see Saban's meltdown, one for the ages.

 

[jauk11]

They dropped Bama to 12th because Bama without Tua is not not the Bama of old. If Georgia beats LSU, both will definitely make the playoffs. Ge oil rigs loses and Utah is in. They desperately want a West Coast team in the playoffs. They are t uh red if teams East of the Mississippi dominating.

They still have better talent and a better coach than anyone not named LSU, OSU, and Clemson, and I'm not sure they wouldn't beat any one of them in a one game playoff. Look at their recruiting classes AND their coaches record.

 

[jauk11]

You must have missed my post the other day. You get substantially more than 2/14ths according to what is in my post below.

Some differences, but nothing major considering the total amount of money UK will get from OTHER SEC teams bowl game. And it would be 2/15ths, not 2/14ths. I feel bad about mitch cheating the other SEC teams out of UK's playing in a bowl for FIVE STRAIGHT YEARS, let alone cheating our teams out of the extra practice time, but apparently no one else cares, lol.

Cost to UK football fans AND season ticket holders, you can't put a dollar amount on. I thought that UK got the 15th share but it goes to the SEC, not sure how much of that gets back to UK. The extra $500K or even a $1M isn't that big a deal compared to the total UK gets from sharing all the bowl revenue, and UK isn't quite there to share the big bucks, $2.5M extra to NC playoff teams. Not quite there-----yet. I think in a minor bowl the amount a team gets from the bowl is less than the expenses, but the other teams profit.

 

[Caveman Catfan]

I see your point, but a 7 spot drop for a single score road game to a rival?

Both of the losses are “good” losses. Because they have no wins against other top 25 teams, I would not have them above other one loss teams. So, for me, that puts their ceiling at #8. I think UF’s 2 losses are similar to Bama’s; but they have the win over Auburn. So, I can see UF being above Bama. Wisky has wins over UMinn and UM. It’s losses are worse than Bama’s. I cannot explain why PSU would be above Bama, other than the fact that PSU seems to be overrated in every poll every year.

Auburn’s schedule was brutal. It’s 3 losses are against top 15 teams (2 top four teams) and it has a win over Bama and Oregon. I understand Auburn jumping Bama.

So, I could see the argument for Bama to be above PSU.

 

[ram1955]

247 now has us in the Liberty vs Texas after tonight's rankings.

Not the best but I'd take it