Gotta find a way to make 7 threes a game

[HalHR2500]

Shooting percentage is a 1980 stat just like batting average in baseball

It’s the overall efficiency that works, it’s why Houston jacks up 40 threes a game in NBA and has best record, spread the court driving for a layup or kick out for threes

Cal has to recruit many more dead eye shooters

 

[mustnotsleepnow]

Cal doesn’t recruit enough shooters, the game has changed

40 percent of your shots should be threes

Dunks layups and threes should consist 75% of shots the 2 pt 8 foot to 18 footer is the absolute worst shot in college B.B. and UK takes way too many of those

Check out an NBA boxscore and look at Houston, Boston and Golden State

Does UK have an analytics department?

So tired of this myth that Cal doesn't/hasn't recruited shooters.

2009- Bledsoe and Dodson were supposed to be decent shooters.
2010- Lamb and Knight
2011- Wiltjer with a leftover Lamb
2012- Leftover Wiltjer and Mays
2013- Aaron Harrison and Young
2014- Ulis and Booker
2015- Leftover Ulis, Murray and Mulder
2016- Mulder, Monk and Fox was supposed to be okay. Shot better at the end of the season
2017- Baker, Shai, Green and Knox were are supposed to be good to okay shooters.

Sometimes, like this year, the shooting doesn't pan out.

 

[Eddie Gran can coach]

Knight, Booker, Murray, Monk and Willis have been best 3 point shooters, that's 5 in 9 years, that's not enough

 

[The_Answer1313]

Shooting percentage is a 1980 stat just like batting average in baseball

It’s the overall efficiency that works, it’s why Houston jacks up 40 threes a game in NBA and has best record, spread the court driving for a layup or kick out for threes

Cal has to recruit many more dead eye shooters

Uh yeah that works because Houston actually makes them at a great rate.

We do not.

Telling a team to take more 3s to make up the difference in total points from 3 when we suck at shooting three doesn't make any sense whatsoever.

Futhermore the 3 pt shot has never been a huge part of Cal's offenses and we have done just fine.

3 pt shooting is more random than 2pt shooting.

 

[The_Answer1313]

BTW it's not just the distribution of 2s vs 3s.

The fact we turn it over 1 in 5 times down the court leads to teams taking more shots overall which is a much bigger issue than the distribution of 2s and 3s.

 

[The_Answer1313]

You hard headed folks need to understand 3 is more than 2

I love the quote Looking at total points is a horrible way of looking at this

Think about that for a second

Uh yeah 1.5 times better. So a team that shoots just 30% from 3, is the exact same as them shooting 45% from 2 like I pointed out.

And your not winning many games shooting 45% overall. That's below average.

 

[Elliott Tim]

Put in a shooter.

Who?

 

[The_Answer1313]

It only makes sense to shoot a ton of threes if by doing so makes your effective FG% go up.

If I'm shooting 50% on 2 and 30% on 3..........it doesn't make any sense to shoot a ton of 3s. However if you are Villanova and you are shooting 40% from 3 well yeah then it makes sense.

 

[the nail at the foul line]

I just want to say 76.6543% of statistics are made up.

 

[HalHR2500]

If you can’t domjnate the line and 2 pointers you will get curb stomped by the 3s it’s simple math

 

[The_Answer1313]

If you can’t domjnate the line and 2 pointers you will get curb stomped by the 3s it’s simple math

Well yeah of course. You have to obviously be in front of one of those areas or your going to lose lol.

But your issue isn't really the fact we don't take many 3s.

It's that we don't have good shooters and make a high % of our 3s.

Here's an extreme example.
20 shots.

Team A takes all 20 from 3 and makes 5. Team A shot 25% from 3. Which is equivalent to shooting 37.5% from 2.

Team B takes all 20 from 2 and makes 8. Team B shot 40% from 2.

Team A outscored Team B from 3 by 15 but Team A won the game.

Now flipside what if Team A shoots 30% from 3? Then they win the game.

It all comes down to whether or not you shoot it well from 3. If you can like Villanova, you take them. If you struggle like UK, you go with the 2pt shot which is more consistent on a game by game basis.

 

[The_Answer1313]

I'm over simplifying things because game theory obviously plays a role in this but for example........UK shoots from 3 32% on the year. That's the same as 48% from 2 pt range.

UK on the season shoots 51% on 2s. It makes more sense for them to take twos because even with the added benefit of the 3 pt shot, it still doesn't give them as many points as 2s.

Now if UK shot say 36%........all of a sudden taking more 3s makes sense.

It just comes down to whether or not the % from 3 (along with the added benefit of it being more points) is >>>>> than % from 2.

It's simple math.

 

[The_Answer1313]

Last thing on this but this is why you see teams are beginning to take more 3s. Because they shoot it well enough to where the benefit of the extra point outweighs the lower % from 3 than 2.

 

[Col. Angus]

Make 7 threes a game?

Easy solution. Shoot 30 of em.

 

[bigcat1962]

No its not crazy at all, our opponents take twice as many threes, and last time I checked 3 is 150% greater than 2. UK has been outscored by 201 points from the 3 point line this year, let that sink in for a while

3 is 50% greater

 

[bigcat1962]

It only makes sense to shoot a ton of threes if by doing so makes your effective FG% go up.

If I'm shooting 50% on 2 and 30% on 3..........it doesn't make any sense to shoot a ton of 3s. However if you are Villanova and you are shooting 40% from 3 well yeah then it makes sense.

if this team lives and dies by the three they will die more then not

 

[The_Answer1313]

if this team lives and dies by the three they will die more then not

Exactly lol

 

[HalHR2500]

Well if you can’t make them you sure can’t give them up, number made is more important than % as opponents take twice as many, opponents advantage due to UK turnovers and low FT percentage

 

[The_Answer1313]

Well if you can’t make them you sure can’t give them up, number made is more important than % as opponents take twice as many, opponents advantage due to UK turnovers and low FT percentage

But now your introducing the real issue right?

The fact that we turn it over and give the opposition more shots in TOTALITY.

This isn't about taking 2s vs taking 3s. It's about taking care of the ball so that the difference in shots beit 2s or 3s isn't large.

FWIW we do a good job rebounding the ball on offense so that somewhat offsets the total number of shots lost by turnovers.

 

[JonathanW]

Ok, the expert for analyzing data (professional statistician) is here.

You want to maximize your points. Duh!
How to go about that depends on your strengths and weaknesses. If you are good at shooting 3's, then you should shoot more of those. If you are good at the FT line, then you should get there as much as possible, which means more 2pt attempts. If you are bad at shooting 2's then you should shoot less 3's.
Now there is the added twist that you should also shoot enough shots from your weaker area, so that the defense plays you more honestly.

 

[The_Answer1313]

Now there is the added twist that you should also shoot enough shots from your weaker area, so that the defense plays you more honestly.

Of course. Game Theory.
Even if you were much better from 2 than 3, it's never correct to take 100% of your shots from 2.

Another thing not discussed so far in this thread is the fact that defenses do have some control over the amount of 3s you take.

Most teams don't shoot contested 3s.

For so long when we had dominant shot blocking, teams STILL didn't shoot alot of 3s against us. We did a good job forcing them to drive into the shot blockers. So teams knew the only shot they had was to beat us from 3 and yet still didn't take them.

This year it's weird. It's completely flipped. Teams are taking a ton of 3s vs us. Luckily for us they haven't shot a good % or else this would have been way worse of a season.

 

[CatEye2010]

I was told there'd be no math. My head hurts.

 

[Eddie Gran can coach]

The bottom line in all of this goes back on Calipari, he has an analytics department but he is hard headed as can be in how he wants to play. He has to have a dominant shot blocking team that doesn't foul a lot to pull that off.
He has neither this year, opposing teams are attacking UK at the rim and beyond the arc, you cant give both up.

UK forces way too few turnovers with their length and athletic ability as they settle to play half court by Grind It Out Cal and thus get very few fastbreak points. UK takes twice as many bad twos as opponents, the worst shot in college basketball.

You cant play King of the Hill basketball with average to good players, other coaches have exploited UK repeatedly by out coaching Cal. They shrink the court, jam the lane, knowing that UK will not jack up threes. That's why there is no driving lanes, no flow to the offense, etc.

Cal wants to play downhill, three yards cloud of dust basketball, problem is he doesn't have the studs to pull it off this year and he refuses to adjust on the fly. Sometimes Coaches have off years too, it happens........He wont change, we can only hope the new recruits fits his system, and with no bigs signed for next year, well....

 

[wildcatdonf]

UK averages 4 makes per game and one reason is they take fewer than any team in country

You cannot lose 9-18 points per game on threes and beat good teams win with this type talent

Cal has to change this going forward

That's going to be a hard one.

 

[HalHR2500]

Well stated that Cal has missed the mark this year, gotta win substantially 2 of 3 shooting categories, the worst to lose is the 3 ball category

 

[megablue]

Knight, Booker, Murray, Monk and Willis have been best 3 point shooters, that's 5 in 9 years, that's not enough

Doron Lamb was incredible.
http://www.bigbluehistory.net/bb/Statistics/career3ptfieldgoalpercent.html

 

[AzubuikeandFitch]

I think they rank so poorly in 3pt field goals attempted because of offensive proficiency. Too many turnovers coupled with very low shooting confidence. The defense doesn't respect our perimeter game and we lack an interior scoring presence/IQ to go inside out.

 

[JonathanW]

I want us to only attempt 8-10 per game, unless we made 37.5+% of those.
PJ tries a 3, he goes to the bench. Same for Diallo. Vanderbilt tries one, he goes back to the locker room.

 

[Lovebaskelball]

Well. we made 9 jump shots in the Auburn game. 3 three pointers and 6 two pointers, the rest of the points were free throws, dunks or layups.

 

[G-PIP]

The bottom line in all of this goes back on Calipari, he has an analytics department but he is hard headed as can be in how he wants to play. He has to have a dominant shot blocking team that doesn't foul a lot to pull that off.
He has neither this year, opposing teams are attacking UK at the rim and beyond the arc, you cant give both up.

UK forces way too few turnovers with their length and athletic ability as they settle to play half court by Grind It Out Cal and thus get very few fastbreak points. UK takes twice as many bad twos as opponents, the worst shot in college basketball.

You cant play King of the Hill basketball with average to good players, other coaches have exploited UK repeatedly by out coaching Cal. They shrink the court, jam the lane, knowing that UK will not jack up threes. That's why there is no driving lanes, no flow to the offense, etc.

Cal wants to play downhill, three yards cloud of dust basketball, problem is he doesn't have the studs to pull it off this year and he refuses to adjust on the fly. Sometimes Coaches have off years too, it happens........He wont change, we can only hope the new recruits fits his system, and with no bigs signed for next year, well....

Yeah....I don't think so.

 

[HalHR2500]

I think totally so, go 7-20 from 3s and watch the wins pile up

 

[Col. Angus]

Well. we made 9 jump shots in the Auburn game. 3 three pointers and 6 two pointers, the rest of the points were free throws, dunks or layups.

a winning game plan if you're the 1995 Knicks.

 

[Rideordiewildcat]

Would have been nice to get Petty. He is doing pretty well from deep. I believe he has double the 3s Knox has and a good percentage.

 

[kev69]

You guys can throw these stats out and twist them anyway you like, but the bottom line is we need better shooters.

 

[The_Answer1313]

You guys can throw these stats out and twist them anyway you like, but the bottom line is we need better shooters.

Basically what it comes down to lol

 

[JonathanW]

You guys can throw these stats out and twist them anyway you like, but the bottom line is we need better shooters.

True. But if you don’t have good shooters you shouldn’t shoot too many 3’s. 7-25 or 7-30 and you probably lose the game

 

[The_Answer1313]

Our biggest offensive strength is our rebounding........at this point our best offense is rebounding missed shots lol

 

[HalHR2500]

7-20 how hard is that really

Knox 2-6
Green 2-5
Wenyen 1-3
Diallo 1-3
SGA 1-3

 

[HenryMuto]

UK averages 4 makes per game and one reason is they take fewer than any team in country

You cannot lose 9-18 points per game on threes and beat good teams win with this type talent

Cal has to change this going forward

They shoot so few because most of them suck at it.

Not going to avg 7 3's a game with this team

Cal's 2nd or 3rd best 3 point shooting team he has ever had here........good one coach

 

[HenryMuto]

7-20 how hard is that really

Knox 2-6
Green 2-5
Wenyen 1-3
Diallo 1-3
SGA 1-3

Considering we have had 3 games where we almost didn't even hit one 3 in the entire game I would say it's pretty hard.

Also this team doesn't avg 20 3 point attempts a game. (Avg 14.6 per game)