For ja, some Phil Steele notes...

[WildCard]

As promised, I went out yesterday and got my 2017 copy of Phil Steele's pre-season football bible (Hawley Cooke in Louisville). Though I would post a separate thread as it got kinda lengthy and a separate thread might better support discussion. Some "quick" observations regarding UK...

Rankings, Projected Ws and Ls: Phil doesn't really address "projected records" but he does provide some pretty good info for looking at future spreads (actually, really good info for the middle of June). His best set of numbers (Power Poll) ranks the Cats #34. However, he never provides the actual Power Poll numerical rating, only relative rankings. So the "analysis" below is not based on his very best set of numbers. To that end, only 5 teams in the Power Poll are ranked higher than the Cats (FL #10, UofL #15, GA #23, TN #28 and MS #32).

He also offers a projected end of season Top 40 (plus a few others). This is not the same as his Power Poll numbers but rather what he thinks the final end of season rankings will look like. It factors in things like SOS that are not part of individual team metrics. He ranks UK #42 in this projection. FWIW, UK has been unranked in this assessment since maybe sometime before 2010 (that is as far back as I checked).

His "second best" set of numbers is what he calls the Plus/Minus Power Ratings and he does provide actual ratings for each team. To quote Phil: The Plus/Minus ratings are a good set of ratings but I personally place more weight into the Power Poll.

The Plus/Minus numbers can be adjusted for home field advantage (cited with each team profile) and the difference between the adjusted ratings represents a rough, but often amazingly accurate, point spread of the future games. To that end, the "projected" UK point spreads look like this:

@USM: UK -10.2
@SC: UK +4.0
FL: UK +4.7
EMU: UK -19.8
MO: UK -6.1
@MSU UK +3.8
TN: UK +1.4
MS: UK -1.8
@Vandy: UK + .9
@GA: UK +12.3
UofL: UK +3.1​

Taken absolutely, the above numbers suggest a 4-7 record BUT the real significance here is that 6 of those 7 projected "losses" are by 4.7 points or less. Over the past 2800+ games with a spread of 5 or less the "underdog" has won outright 41% of the time. In 1800+ games with a spread of 3 or less (3 games) the 'dawg has won outright 46% of the time. The point here is that only 1 opponent (GA) looks to be more than a 6 point favorite against UK. Win the 4 you "should" win, throw in a win against EKU and then win just 3 of the remaining 7 (not exactly outlandish) and you are looking a an 8 win season.

Individual Unit Rankings (only 50 to 55 Units "Ranked")

RBs (#53), OLs (#32), LBs (#22), DBs (#27, STs (#31); Other units not ranked in top 50 - 55

Miscellaneous Assessments and Projections:

> #4 in SECE standings
> 5 of 9 data sets project more wins than last year
> But not on "15 Most Improved" list
> #32 in 2017 Recruiting Rankings
> #20 in Experience (#4 in SEC)
> #51 in Projected SOS (Lowest in the 4 years Steele has offered this metric. FWIW, projected SOS has been #43, #42 and #15 past 3 years; actual final ratings were #62, #64 and #28)
> No pre-season A/As but 8 pre-season All SECs

1st team: LB Jones
2nd team: S Edwards
3rd team: RB Snell; OL Haynes; DE Ware; LB Allen
4th team: TE Conrad; K MacGinnis​

> Bowl Opponent...VPI in the Music City Bowl (that would likely be a darn good game)

And a separate note for ja....2016 and early 2017 were pretty tough medically on both Mr. and Mrs. WildCard but hopefully the worst is behind both of us. IOW, you will likely have me to kick around for at least a few more years.

Peace

 

[Caveman Catfan]

Very interesting. One thing: point spreads in June? Not compelling. Just my opinion.

 

[JC-3]

I just do not see us taking a big step back(4-7). Projected 2 sec wins? Maybe PS is right but I just DO NOT see 2-6 in the SEC and 4-7 over all. 7-4 AND 4-4 much more likely. PS hurt my feelings. lol

 

[Deeeefense]

As promised, I went out yesterday and got my 2017 copy of Phil Steele's pre-season football bible (Hawley Cooke in Louisville). Though I would post a separate thread as it got kinda lengthy and a separate thread might better support discussion. Some "quick" observations regarding UK...

Rankings, Projected Ws and Ls: Phil doesn't really address "projected records" but he does provide some pretty good info for looking at future spreads (actually, really good info for the middle of June). His best set of numbers (Power Poll) ranks the Cats #34. However, he never provides the actual Power Poll numerical rating, only relative rankings. So the "analysis" below is not based on his very best set of numbers. To that end, only 5 teams in the Power Poll are ranked higher than the Cats (FL #10, UofL #15, GA #23, TN #28 and MS #32).

He also offers a projected end of season Top 40 (plus a few others). This is not the same as his Power Poll numbers but rather what he thinks the final end of season rankings will look like. It factors in things like SOS that are not part of individual team metrics. He ranks UK #42 in this projection. FWIW, UK has been unranked in this assessment since maybe sometime before 2010 (that is as far back as I checked).

His "second best" set of numbers is what he calls the Plus/Minus Power Ratings and he does provide actual ratings for each team. To quote Phil: The Plus/Minus ratings are a good set of ratings but I personally place more weight into the Power Poll.

The Plus/Minus numbers can be adjusted for home field advantage (cited with each team profile) and the difference between the adjusted ratings represents a rough, but often amazingly accurate, point spread of the future games. To that end, the "projected" UK point spreads look like this:

@USM: UK -10.2
@SC: UK +4.0
FL: UK +4.7
EMU: UK -19.8
MO: UK -6.1
@MSU UK +3.8
TN: UK +1.4
MS: UK -1.8
@Vandy: UK + .9
@GA: UK +12.3
UofL: UK +3.1​

Taken absolutely, the above numbers suggest a 4-7 record BUT the real significance here is that 6 of those 7 projected "losses" are by 4.7 points or less. Over the past 2800+ games with a spread of 5 or less the "underdog" has won outright 41% of the time. In 1800+ games with a spread of 3 or less (3 games) the 'dawg has won outright 46% of the time. The point here is that only 1 opponent (GA) looks to be more than a 6 point favorite against UK. Win the 4 you "should" win, throw in a win against EKU and then win just 3 of the remaining 7 (not exactly outlandish) and you are looking a an 8 win season.

Individual Unit Rankings (only 50 to 55 Units "Ranked")

RBs (#53), OLs (#32), LBs (#22), DBs (#27, STs (#31); Other units not ranked in top 50 - 55

Miscellaneous Assessments and Projections:

> #4 in SECE standings
> 5 of 9 data sets project more wins than last year
> But not on "15 Most Improved" list
> #32 in 2017 Recruiting Rankings
> #20 in Experience (#4 in SEC)
> #51 in Projected SOS (Lowest in the 4 years Steele has offered this metric. FWIW, projected SOS has been #43, #42 and #15 past 3 years; actual final ratings were #62, #64 and #28)
> No pre-season A/As but 8 pre-season All SECs

1st team: LB Jones
2nd team: S Edwards
3rd team: RB Snell; OL Haynes; DE Ware; LB Allen
4th team: TE Conrad; K MacGinnis​

> Bowl Opponent...VPI in the Music City Bowl (that would likely be a darn good game)

And a separate note for ja....2016 and early 2017 were pretty tough medically on both Mr. and Mrs. WildCard but hopefully the worst is behind both of us. IOW, you will likely have me to kick around for at least a few more years.

Peace

Nice work - thanks! I feel even better about my elephant sized over bet now. And here's to yall's health

 

[mrschwump]

I just do not see us taking a big step back(4-7). Projected 2 sec wins? Maybe PS is right but I just DO NOT see 2-6 in the SEC and 4-7 over all. 7-4 AND 4-4 much more likely. PS hurt my feelings. lol

A lot of wishful thinking by the UL toady.

 

[EclipsingYou]

7-5 and 4-4 in the SEC is the floor of this team's potential, in my opinion.

You never know with injuries and academics, but if we avoid those setbacks, 6 games will determine our season, IMO.

@ Georgia
Vs. FL
Vs. TN.
Vs. Ole Miss
@ Miss St
Vs. Louisville.

Split the home games and lose both road games? 8-4 looks extremely attainable.

Win 3/4 at home and win @ Miss St? 10-2 isn't out of reach.

Worst case scenario, in my opinion, win 1/6 and end up 7-5.

Those 6 games will make or break our season. I so not see us having much trouble in the other 6 games after what we showed last year after starting 0-2 and finishing 7-3 in the regular season.

Best case? Win 5/6, hope for Georgia to lose 2 SEC games, and UK wins the east. The talent gap has continually been shrinking. We have the players that we've always been missing to beat a down TN team at home and end the streak vs a rebuilding FL team. Ole Miss has sanctions looming over their head and could very well affect their season. As long as Dak Prescott doesn't find another year of eligibility, beating MS ST on the road is not nearly as unlikely in years past.

After what we did to UL at their place last year, calling that game as a definite win for UL isn't possible for me. Their university is in shambles and the win last year was no fluke. Winning at home vs UL shouldn't even be considered an upset this season.

Winning @ Georgia is the only game that I will concede a loss to. Maybe if it were a home game, we would have a punchers chance, but on the road I just hope to keep it close. They have so much talent on the line and at RB. That's been a recipe for disaster for UK. I don't think we can contain their RB or get much offense going due to the continuous pressure they will bring with their JR/SR 4*/5* Defensive Line.

Those 6 games will define UK's season.

@SMU, Vs. EKU, @ South Carolina, Vs. Eastern Michigan, Vs. Missouri, and @ Vandy will show the type of talent gap UK has built over the last 4 years. @ South Carolina might scare me, but with it being played so early in the season after what should be 2 cupcakes, makes it a W, in my opinion. @ Vandy could be a battle being so late in the season if injuries have been piling up, but the talent gap UK steadily has developed over Vandy under CMS makes it a win with the slightest of doubt that injuries or academics have hit us hard enough to "even the score" between both teams.

So, 6 wins plus whatever happens in the other 6 vs FL, TN, Ole Miss, and UL plus @ Georgia and MS ST.

All in my completely worthless opinion,as always!

 

[Blue Decade]

As promised, I went out yesterday and got my 2017 copy of Phil Steele's pre-season football bible (Hawley Cooke in Louisville). Though I would post a separate thread as it got kinda lengthy and a separate thread might better support discussion. Some "quick" observations regarding UK...

Rankings, Projected Ws and Ls: Phil doesn't really address "projected records" but he does provide some pretty good info for looking at future spreads (actually, really good info for the middle of June). His best set of numbers (Power Poll) ranks the Cats #34. However, he never provides the actual Power Poll numerical rating, only relative rankings. So the "analysis" below is not based on his very best set of numbers. To that end, only 5 teams in the Power Poll are ranked higher than the Cats (FL #10, UofL #15, GA #23, TN #28 and MS #32).

He also offers a projected end of season Top 40 (plus a few others). This is not the same as his Power Poll numbers but rather what he thinks the final end of season rankings will look like. It factors in things like SOS that are not part of individual team metrics. He ranks UK #42 in this projection. FWIW, UK has been unranked in this assessment since maybe sometime before 2010 (that is as far back as I checked).

His "second best" set of numbers is what he calls the Plus/Minus Power Ratings and he does provide actual ratings for each team. To quote Phil: The Plus/Minus ratings are a good set of ratings but I personally place more weight into the Power Poll.

The Plus/Minus numbers can be adjusted for home field advantage (cited with each team profile) and the difference between the adjusted ratings represents a rough, but often amazingly accurate, point spread of the future games. To that end, the "projected" UK point spreads look like this:

@USM: UK -10.2
@SC: UK +4.0
FL: UK +4.7
EMU: UK -19.8
MO: UK -6.1
@MSU UK +3.8
TN: UK +1.4
MS: UK -1.8
@Vandy: UK + .9
@GA: UK +12.3
UofL: UK +3.1​

Taken absolutely, the above numbers suggest a 4-7 record BUT the real significance here is that 6 of those 7 projected "losses" are by 4.7 points or less. Over the past 2800+ games with a spread of 5 or less the "underdog" has won outright 41% of the time. In 1800+ games with a spread of 3 or less (3 games) the 'dawg has won outright 46% of the time. The point here is that only 1 opponent (GA) looks to be more than a 6 point favorite against UK. Win the 4 you "should" win, throw in a win against EKU and then win just 3 of the remaining 7 (not exactly outlandish) and you are looking a an 8 win season.

Individual Unit Rankings (only 50 to 55 Units "Ranked")

RBs (#53), OLs (#32), LBs (#22), DBs (#27, STs (#31); Other units not ranked in top 50 - 55

Miscellaneous Assessments and Projections:

> #4 in SECE standings
> 5 of 9 data sets project more wins than last year
> But not on "15 Most Improved" list
> #32 in 2017 Recruiting Rankings
> #20 in Experience (#4 in SEC)
> #51 in Projected SOS (Lowest in the 4 years Steele has offered this metric. FWIW, projected SOS has been #43, #42 and #15 past 3 years; actual final ratings were #62, #64 and #28)
> No pre-season A/As but 8 pre-season All SECs

1st team: LB Jones
2nd team: S Edwards
3rd team: RB Snell; OL Haynes; DE Ware; LB Allen
4th team: TE Conrad; K MacGinnis​

> Bowl Opponent...VPI in the Music City Bowl (that would likely be a darn good game)

And a separate note for ja....2016 and early 2017 were pretty tough medically on both Mr. and Mrs. WildCard but hopefully the worst is behind both of us. IOW, you will likely have me to kick around for at least a few more years.

Peace

I read Steele's mag every year and respect his analytical work. If you want projections on the upcoming season based on a program's statistical performance in recent years, you won't find a better or more thorough source than Steele. The weakness of this kind of analysis is inability to anticipate a breakout season by a team with lots of young key returning players that will outperform the bar set in recent years. That basically describes UK in 2017. If Benny Snell stays healthy, I foresee at least 8 wins.

 

[WildCard]

Very interesting. One thing: point spreads in June? Not compelling. Just my opinion.

Naturally what actually happens during the season affects the game time point spread. This "analysis" is just a way to get an objective, numbers oriented look at what "should" happen. Here are last year's "spread projections" and actual spreads...

Team / June Projection / Actual at KO

USM / UK -9 / UK -6
FL / UK +11 / UK +16
NM ST / UK -32 / UK -21
SC / UK -5 / UK -2
AL / UK +23 / UK +35
Vandy / UK -5 / UK -3
MSU / UK +2 / UK +4
MO / UK +6 / UK +6
GA / UK +5 / UK +2
TN / UK +19 / UK +13
UL / UK +12 / UK +27 ​

That is 8 games within 6 points and 6 within 3 points...in June.

...The weakness of this kind of analysis is inability to anticipate a breakout season by a team with lots of young key returning players that will outperform the bar set in recent years....

That is absolutely true but it is "mathematically impossible" to speculate or project such performance "breakouts". It is perfectly OK for fans to expect breakout performances but the pros wait until they see it before putting it in their numbers. Furthermore, other than the QB position,"experience" per se does not necessarily mean "improvement". And "improvement" in the so called "strength" position usually comes from injecting more talent than more experience. JMO

Peace

 

[UKvisitor]

Nice work by the OP. Wondering what PS said last year about the Cats and the actual results?

 

[VikingsCat]

Nice work Wildcard.
To take it one step further I added the results of the games last season.

Team/ June Projection / Actual at KO/ Score differential

USM / UK -9 / UK -6/ UK +9
FL / UK +11 / UK +16/ UK +38
NM ST / UK -32 / UK -2/ UK - 20
SC / UK -5 / UK -2/ UK -7
AL / UK +23 / UK +35/ UK +28
Vandy / UK -5 / UK -3/ UK -7
MSU / UK +2 / UK +4/ UK -2
MO / UK +6 / UK +6/ UK -14
GA / UK +5 / UK +2/ UK +3
TN / UK +19 / UK +13/ UK +13
UL / UK +12 / UK +27/ UK -3

So, out of the 11 games included Steele projected the correct winner within a TD from the projection in 5 of the 11 games (highlighted above). In 4 games USM, MSU, MO and UL the projection missed the winner, and the projection missed by close to 20 points in the following games. FL by 22, NM St by 18, MO by 20 and UL by 23.

 

[UKvisitor]

Nice work Wildcard.
To take it one step further I added the results of the games last season.

Team/ June Projection / Actual at KO/ Score differential

USM / UK -9 / UK -6/ UK +9
FL / UK +11 / UK +16/ UK +38
NM ST / UK -32 / UK -2/ UK - 20
SC / UK -5 / UK -2/ UK -7
AL / UK +23 / UK +35/ UK +28
Vandy / UK -5 / UK -3/ UK -7
MSU / UK +2 / UK +4/ UK -2
MO / UK +6 / UK +6/ UK -14
GA / UK +5 / UK +2/ UK +3
TN / UK +19 / UK +13/ UK +13
UL / UK +12 / UK +27/ UK -3

So, out of the 11 games included Steele projected the correct winner within a TD from the projection in 5 of the 11 games (highlighted above). In 4 games USM, MSU, MO and UL the projection missed the winner, and the projection missed by close to 20 points in the following games. FL by 22, NM St by 18, MO by 20 and UL by 23.

Nice Work. TU.

 

[jauk11]

A lot of wishful thinking by the UL toady.

I don't think he should be criticized for providing a very good breakdown of another expert's opinion. I have always looked forward to it.

 

[jauk11]

As promised, I went out yesterday and got my 2017 copy of Phil Steele's pre-season football bible (Hawley Cooke in Louisville). Though I would post a separate thread as it got kinda lengthy and a separate thread might better support discussion. Some "quick" observations regarding UK...

Rankings, Projected Ws and Ls: Phil doesn't really address "projected records" but he does provide some pretty good info for looking at future spreads (actually, really good info for the middle of June). His best set of numbers (Power Poll) ranks the Cats #34. However, he never provides the actual Power Poll numerical rating, only relative rankings. So the "analysis" below is not based on his very best set of numbers. To that end, only 5 teams in the Power Poll are ranked higher than the Cats (FL #10, UofL #15, GA #23, TN #28 and MS #32).

He also offers a projected end of season Top 40 (plus a few others). This is not the same as his Power Poll numbers but rather what he thinks the final end of season rankings will look like. It factors in things like SOS that are not part of individual team metrics. He ranks UK #42 in this projection. FWIW, UK has been unranked in this assessment since maybe sometime before 2010 (that is as far back as I checked).

His "second best" set of numbers is what he calls the Plus/Minus Power Ratings and he does provide actual ratings for each team. To quote Phil: The Plus/Minus ratings are a good set of ratings but I personally place more weight into the Power Poll.

The Plus/Minus numbers can be adjusted for home field advantage (cited with each team profile) and the difference between the adjusted ratings represents a rough, but often amazingly accurate, point spread of the future games. To that end, the "projected" UK point spreads look like this:

@USM: UK -10.2
@SC: UK +4.0
FL: UK +4.7
EMU: UK -19.8
MO: UK -6.1
@MSU UK +3.8
TN: UK +1.4
MS: UK -1.8
@Vandy: UK + .9
@GA: UK +12.3
UofL: UK +3.1​

Taken absolutely, the above numbers suggest a 4-7 record BUT the real significance here is that 6 of those 7 projected "losses" are by 4.7 points or less. Over the past 2800+ games with a spread of 5 or less the "underdog" has won outright 41% of the time. In 1800+ games with a spread of 3 or less (3 games) the 'dawg has won outright 46% of the time. The point here is that only 1 opponent (GA) looks to be more than a 6 point favorite against UK. Win the 4 you "should" win, throw in a win against EKU and then win just 3 of the remaining 7 (not exactly outlandish) and you are looking a an 8 win season.

Individual Unit Rankings (only 50 to 55 Units "Ranked")

RBs (#53), OLs (#32), LBs (#22), DBs (#27, STs (#31); Other units not ranked in top 50 - 55

Miscellaneous Assessments and Projections:

> #4 in SECE standings
> 5 of 9 data sets project more wins than last year
> But not on "15 Most Improved" list
> #32 in 2017 Recruiting Rankings
> #20 in Experience (#4 in SEC)
> #51 in Projected SOS (Lowest in the 4 years Steele has offered this metric. FWIW, projected SOS has been #43, #42 and #15 past 3 years; actual final ratings were #62, #64 and #28)
> No pre-season A/As but 8 pre-season All SECs

1st team: LB Jones
2nd team: S Edwards
3rd team: RB Snell; OL Haynes; DE Ware; LB Allen
4th team: TE Conrad; K MacGinnis​

> Bowl Opponent...VPI in the Music City Bowl (that would likely be a darn good game)

And a separate note for ja....2016 and early 2017 were pretty tough medically on both Mr. and Mrs. WildCard but hopefully the worst is behind both of us. IOW, you will likely have me to kick around for at least a few more years.

Peace

 

[jauk11]

As promised, I went out yesterday and got my 2017 copy of Phil Steele's pre-season football bible (Hawley Cooke in Louisville). Though I would post a separate thread as it got kinda lengthy and a separate thread might better support discussion. Some "quick" observations regarding UK...

Rankings, Projected Ws and Ls: Phil doesn't really address "projected records" but he does provide some pretty good info for looking at future spreads (actually, really good info for the middle of June). His best set of numbers (Power Poll) ranks the Cats #34. However, he never provides the actual Power Poll numerical rating, only relative rankings. So the "analysis" below is not based on his very best set of numbers. To that end, only 5 teams in the Power Poll are ranked higher than the Cats (FL #10, UofL #15, GA #23, TN #28 and MS #32).

He also offers a projected end of season Top 40 (plus a few others). This is not the same as his Power Poll numbers but rather what he thinks the final end of season rankings will look like. It factors in things like SOS that are not part of individual team metrics. He ranks UK #42 in this projection. FWIW, UK has been unranked in this assessment since maybe sometime before 2010 (that is as far back as I checked).

His "second best" set of numbers is what he calls the Plus/Minus Power Ratings and he does provide actual ratings for each team. To quote Phil: The Plus/Minus ratings are a good set of ratings but I personally place more weight into the Power Poll.

The Plus/Minus numbers can be adjusted for home field advantage (cited with each team profile) and the difference between the adjusted ratings represents a rough, but often amazingly accurate, point spread of the future games. To that end, the "projected" UK point spreads look like this:

@USM: UK -10.2
@SC: UK +4.0
FL: UK +4.7
EMU: UK -19.8
MO: UK -6.1
@MSU UK +3.8
TN: UK +1.4
MS: UK -1.8
@Vandy: UK + .9
@GA: UK +12.3
UofL: UK +3.1​

Taken absolutely, the above numbers suggest a 4-7 record BUT the real significance here is that 6 of those 7 projected "losses" are by 4.7 points or less. Over the past 2800+ games with a spread of 5 or less the "underdog" has won outright 41% of the time. In 1800+ games with a spread of 3 or less (3 games) the 'dawg has won outright 46% of the time. The point here is that only 1 opponent (GA) looks to be more than a 6 point favorite against UK. Win the 4 you "should" win, throw in a win against EKU and then win just 3 of the remaining 7 (not exactly outlandish) and you are looking a an 8 win season.

Individual Unit Rankings (only 50 to 55 Units "Ranked")

RBs (#53), OLs (#32), LBs (#22), DBs (#27, STs (#31); Other units not ranked in top 50 - 55

Miscellaneous Assessments and Projections:

> #4 in SECE standings
> 5 of 9 data sets project more wins than last year
> But not on "15 Most Improved" list
> #32 in 2017 Recruiting Rankings
> #20 in Experience (#4 in SEC)
> #51 in Projected SOS (Lowest in the 4 years Steele has offered this metric. FWIW, projected SOS has been #43, #42 and #15 past 3 years; actual final ratings were #62, #64 and #28)
> No pre-season A/As but 8 pre-season All SECs

1st team: LB Jones
2nd team: S Edwards
3rd team: RB Snell; OL Haynes; DE Ware; LB Allen
4th team: TE Conrad; K MacGinnis​

> Bowl Opponent...VPI in the Music City Bowl (that would likely be a darn good game)

And a separate note for ja....2016 and early 2017 were pretty tough medically on both Mr. and Mrs. WildCard but hopefully the worst is behind both of us. IOW, you will likely have me to kick around for at least a few more years.

Peace

Thanks, worth the wait. Not only did I get a lot of his numbers concerning our team but also your explanation of how his numbers work. Much appreciated, and thanks for working the midnight shift in order to get it to us. I know you put a lot of stock in his predictions AND understand how they work, but I think we will have a better record also, and have always thought a LOT of our games will be very close contests. But I believe that we will be improved a lot more than a lot of experts think. But I am an optimist, but I really think this year the optimism has a basis in fact, although several on our schedule will be improved also.

And don't feel too bad about health problems, every day above ground is a good day. We both have to consider ourselves lucky to have survived this long, when I consider all the close calls I have had I consider it a minor miracle, still have never been involved in an accident as a driver or passenger where anyone was injured, knock on wood.

But good luck, just in case.

 

[UKvisitor]

Thanks, worth the wait. Not only did I get a lot of his numbers concerning our team but also your explanation of how his numbers work. Much appreciated, and thanks for working the midnight shift in order to get it to us. I know you put a lot of stock in his predictions AND understand how they work, but I think we will have a better record also, and have always thought a LOT of our games will be very close contests. But I believe that we will be improved a lot more than a lot of experts think. But I am an optimist, but I really think this year the optimism has a basis in fact, although several on our schedule will be improved also.

And don't feel too bad about health problems, every day above ground is a good day. We both have to consider ourselves lucky to have survived this long, when I consider all the close calls I have had I consider it a minor miracle, still have never been involved in an accident as a driver or passenger where anyone was injured, knock on wood.

But good luck, just in case.

Life is really strange. A whole lot of unexpected BS.

 

[jauk11]

Nice work Wildcard.
To take it one step further I added the results of the games last season.

Team/ June Projection / Actual at KO/ Score differential

USM / UK -9 / UK -6/ UK +9
FL / UK +11 / UK +16/ UK +38
NM ST / UK -32 / UK -2/ UK - 20
SC / UK -5 / UK -2/ UK -7
AL / UK +23 / UK +35/ UK +28
Vandy / UK -5 / UK -3/ UK -7
MSU / UK +2 / UK +4/ UK -2
MO / UK +6 / UK +6/ UK -14
GA / UK +5 / UK +2/ UK +3
TN / UK +19 / UK +13/ UK +13
UL / UK +12 / UK +27/ UK -3

So, out of the 11 games included Steele projected the correct winner within a TD from the projection in 5 of the 11 games (highlighted above). In 4 games USM, MSU, MO and UL the projection missed the winner, and the projection missed by close to 20 points in the following games. FL by 22, NM St by 18, MO by 20 and UL by 23.

And for the most part the misses reflect the terrible beginning to the season and the huge improvement as the season progressed. Not too many would have predicted either one.

 

[UKvisitor]

Not too many would have predicted either one.

It was the worst of times, it was the best of times. (some here might even read that before)

 

[vhcat70]

That is absolutely true but it is "mathematically impossible" to speculate or project such performance "breakouts". It is perfectly OK for fans to expect breakout performances but the pros wait until they see it before putting it in their numbers.

Agree.

 

[vhcat70]

Furthermore, other than the QB position,"experience" per se does not necessarily mean "improvement". And "improvement" in the so called "strength" position usually comes from injecting more talent than more experience. JMO

JMO, but I think it's some of both. OL's do improve with the same talent over time. I think DB & LB reads improve with experience.

 

[WildCard]

Thanks ja and others. Health-wise, not perfect, but things could be a helluva lot worse!

I have tabulated and posted the above "analysis" of Steele's work for some years now and have always found it uncannily accurate. Naturally, every year there are under performers, over performers and upsets but overall I just find amazingly "accurate" for JUNE assessments of expected records.

Virtually all other pre-season pundits offers subjective pre-season opinions. It is one thing to say "AL is better than TN" but another thing altogether to say "AL is 20 points better than TN" (Steele projected spread of 2017 game in Tuscaloosa).

JMO, but I think it's some of both. OL's do improve with the same talent over time. I think DB & LB reads improve with experience.

I would put O-line as second to QB as the position most likely to improve based on experience. I say that mainly because most fans do not realize how "complex" OL play can be. Still, in the end, you really need the footwork to get into/execute the block and that is more about inherent talent than experience. On defense, experience will minimize your mistakes (and defensive mistakes can be ugly) but will not make up a lack of natural talent. in general, I think most coaches will play "talent over experience" most every time. FWIW, I will give BC a shout out here. That is a team full of very average talent at best but plays superb team defense.

Peace

 

[STUCKNBIG10]

I am cautiously optimistic about the season, but I am having a hard time understanding the "7-5 is the floor" people. The good news is that UK is now in a spot to be competitive in every game on the schedule. The bad news is that very few others are "sitting still and thus there will be a lot of "tossup" games every year. So, I think we'll see UK have 4-5 game variance on where it could end up in the coming years.

With some injuries, a tougher than expected slate (e.g. UT ends up being a juggernaut, Georgia now as good as Bama, UF gets Zaire and suddenly finds an offense, Mullen has Nick Fitzgerald playing like Dak Prescott, UL finds an OL to protect Lamar, Freeze has enough talent left in the cupboard to be top 15, etc), UK could easily be 4-8.

On the other hand, the slate looks manageable, UK stays healthy, holds serve in what is a relatively soft road schedule (save UGA), finally beats some archival hated teams at home (UT, UF, UL), and 9-3 or 10-2 is not insane.

I want UK people to expect more out of our football program, but we're not in a place yet where 7 wins is the floor when you play in the SEC.

 

[jauk11]

I am cautiously optimistic about the season, but I am having a hard time understanding the "7-5 is the floor" people. The good news is that UK is now in a spot to be competitive in every game on the schedule. The bad news is that very few others are "sitting still and thus there will be a lot of "tossup" games every year. So, I think we'll see UK have 4-5 game variance on where it could end up in the coming years.

With some injuries, a tougher than expected slate (e.g. UT ends up being a juggernaut, Georgia now as good as Bama, UF gets Zaire and suddenly finds an offense, Mullen has Nick Fitzgerald playing like Dak Prescott, UL finds an OL to protect Lamar, Freeze has enough talent left in the cupboard to be top 15, etc), UK could easily be 4-8.

On the other hand, the slate looks manageable, UK stays healthy, holds serve in what is a relatively soft road schedule (save UGA), finally beats some archival hated teams at home (UT, UF, UL), and 9-3 or 10-2 is not insane.

I want UK people to expect more out of our football program, but we're not in a place yet where 7 wins is the floor when you play in the SEC.

You have a pretty long list of bad things that could happen so we end up with only 4 wins. There is probably an even longer list of good things that could happen and if they all came together UK could win 11 games, all of them happening either way is very unlikely. Being the optimist I think we win 8 games, plus or minus, 10 wins a fabulous season, 6 wins a pretty big disappointment to me.

 

[Caveman Catfan]

We won 7 last year. 4 of those games were by 7 or less points. 2 were last minute FGs (granted UGA got us the same way). The 7 win season could have been a 3-4 win season. 7 wins in 2017 is not the floor.

 

[KyCatFan]

I am not as optimistic as some of you. I still wonder how many of our wins were due to us being improved and how many were from the SEC being down? I still think we could take a step back this year. I don't know if any of the road games are sure things and we likely are underdogs in 3 home games. We could potentially only win 4 or 5. How would people feel if that happens and we just gave Stoops another extension?

I hope we improved significantly and 7 wins is the least we should expect. I am pessimistic though with my view of UK football and need more than 1 decent year in a down year for the conference to raise my confidence. Stoops needs to prove he is more than a recruiter. I am leaning toward 5 to 6 wins and hope to be proven wrong. Maybe this is the year the glass starts to become half full instead of half empty.

 

[WildCard]

FWIW, the Golden Nugget and South Point have released their early games-of-the-year point spreads. These are live lines. A UK game was not in the Golden Nugget's early offerings but the South Point has two live lines for UK games:

UK vs. UT Pick 'em
UK vs. UofL UK +8.5

Phil was very close on the UT game, off by 5 on the UofL game on these lines.

Peace

 

[The Public Enemy]

Just picked up the Magazine...his Bowl Projection for Kentucky is the Music City Bowl vs. Virginia Tech...if this happens Nashville will be very happy...Sell Out for that game

 

[Gabewcat]

I had to get mind at Wheeler's Drugstore in Lexington, up here in Northern Kentucky, I looked for the magazine & never found it. Anyway, I think Phil Steele is going back by historical trends and doesn't give enough credit to the UK Offensive line and Benny Snell running ability because I think they should be up at the top of the SEC instead of the middle of the pack. However, Phil falls into the consertative category by predicting the history of UK Football instead of putting his foot out there and predicting them 4th in the East instead of being a contender for the East Title like I think they will.

 

[NoviG8r]

I certainly hope Phil Steele is correct regarding his projections for the upcoming season:
"Florida Gators are darkhorse national title team."
http://florida.247sports.com/Bolt/P...ors-as-darkhorse-national-title-team-53331654

 

[WildCard]

I had to get mind at Wheeler's Drugstore in Lexington, up here in Northern Kentucky, I looked for the magazine & never found it. Anyway, I think Phil Steele is going back by historical trends and (1) doesn't give enough credit to the UK Offensive line and Benny Snell running ability because I think they should be up at the top of the SEC instead of the middle of the pack. However, Phil falls into the consertative category by predicting the history of UK Football instead of putting his foot out there and (2) predicting them 4th in the East instead of being a contender for the East Title like I think they will.

(1) He ranks UK's O-line as #32 nationally. He projects UK 3rd in the SEC in "projected rushing offense" (223 YPG) trailing only AL (270 YPG) and LSU (248 YPG). I would say that is closer to the top than the middle.
(2) From SEC write up: ...if the Wildcats can finally end their 5 year losing streak to the Big 3 from the East (UF, UT, UGA, 0-15) they could be a contender for the divisional title.

Peace

 

[Gabewcat]

Wikicard: He stopped short of crediting UK with the fact that they have the best offensive line in the entire SEC and definitely did not give Snell the credit he deserved for rushing over 1,000 yards as a true freshman despite not carrying the ball the first two games.