Football season is here!

[WildCard]

I say that because last night I picked up my 2016 Phil Steele College Football Preview. For me, that always marks the opening of the season.

While you guys rush out to buy yours here are some top level notes about the Cats...

> Cats are #74 in his initial Power Poll rankings
> Projected SOS is #43
> Projected 5th in SECE (ahead of SC and Vandy)
> Unit Rankings:

QB: N/R in top 50
RB: #36
WR/TE: #30
OL: #43
DL: N/R in top 46
LB: N/R in top 48
DB: #43
ST: N/R in top 50​

> Plus/Minus ratings adjusted for home field (i.e., early probable spreads round to nearest whole point; favs in bold)

USM: UK -9
@FL: UK +11
NMSt: UK -32
SC: UK -5
@AL: UK +23
Vandy UK -5
MSU: UK +2
@MO: UK +6
GA: UK +5
@TN: UK +19
A/P Not Rated
@UofL: UK +12​

> Phil says: I have them favored in 5 games this year so they are just 1 upset away from getting back to the post season for the first time since 2010.


And I saved the best for last...

2016 Bowl Projections: UK vs WVA in Liberty Bowl

Peace

 

[BigBoyBlueMMA]

Lawd I'll take Memphis for my new years events!

 

[StubbornPenny]

I haven't really followed MSU... Are they in a big down season?

 

[CB3UK]

Forgot to embolden South Carolina

 

[WildCard]

Forgot to embolden South Carolina

Got it! Thanks! Had to retype a lot of that post due to some board quirkiness earlier this AM.

Peace

 

[Deeeefense]

I"m pissed - I always order mine on line a month in advance and get it before the newsstands get theirs, and mine isn't here yet.

At first blush I would say he has our D-line a little over rated, and DBs under rated and I really don't see being a 6 point dog to Missouri, but maybe they are better then they look on paper with a new coach. OTOH just a 5 point dog to the Dawgs at home is encouraging.

 

[TNTUK]

I haven't really followed MSU... Are they in a big down season?

Well - they did lose Dak Prescott. That's a big loss. Plus we get them at home.

I think we have a really good shot against them and think we will beat Mizzou at Mizzou. They will have a good defense, but their O is going to be pretty weak.

 

[Aces Fan]

I think we are going to struggle at times defensively but when you look at who we play we might catch a few breaks. MSU, Vandy, Mizzou, and SC all look like they are going to have some offensive issues. If we can have the offensive firepower that it feels like we should then we might be able to win all of those games.

 

[TheBigBlueSpectacle]

6 is very doable

 

[Oldtrainer]

I also think we win six!
I'm a little under optimistic with the Missouri and MSU game. Missouri is away and they should be good as ever on defense. MSU has bullied us in the trenches both side of the ball for several years. On positive side we get them in CWS without Dak!

 

[WildCard]

I"m pissed - I always order mine on line a month in advance and get it before the newsstands get theirs, and mine isn't here yet.

At first blush I would say he has our D-line a little over rated, and DBs under rated and I really don't see being a 6 point dog to Missouri, but maybe they are better then they look on paper with a new coach. OTOH just a 5 point dog to the Dawgs at home is encouraging.

Hah! I was so bored this year I almost went the on line route but now glad I decided not to do so.

I felt the same way about the Mizzou and GA numbers. He is apparently giving the Tigers a bit more cred than other pre-season analysts. He has GA ranked #29 in his Power Poll and projects them at a #23 end of year finish; down by UGA standards.

I'm not sure what you mean by "D-line a little over rated"; he rates 46 DLs and the Cats are not in that group.

Regarding the secondary, I really have no idea what metrics go into his "unit ratings" but I suspect they are heavily influenced by returnees and last year's performance. While the Cats return a lot from the 2015 secondary, that secondary finished #63 in his pass defense ratings (and he did acknowledge last year's youth at these positions). So, in that sense, the #43 unit ranking this year does represent significant improvement.

Peace

 

[KeepingItReal74]

We will win 8!

 

[anon_7tbtqcx308nxh]

With Mizzou +2 and on the road that's essentially a pick-em. Thanks for sharing as I've been curious what Steele thought.

 

[Deeeefense]

I'm not sure what you mean by "D-line a little over rated"; he rates 46 DLs and the Cats are not in that group.

I misread it - just looked at top 46.

 

[WildCard]

With Mizzou +2 and on the road that's essentially a pick-em. Thanks for sharing as I've been curious what Steele thought.

Gus, I think you read something incorrectly or perhaps typed something wrong. UK is a 2 point 'dawg to Mississippi State (MSU) at home and a 6 point 'dawg to MO (Mizzou) on the road by these early numbers. And remember these are not his "best" numbers, however, in my experience, he is often uncannily accurate on these early "pseudo lines".

Peace

 

[vhcat70]

In general, I think we're 4 points better than those lines.

 

[Jdhays21]

I was listening to Phil speak the other day and he singled out Missouri as team he thinks wills make major improvements this year. He believes in Lock and likes what they have coming back.... I disagree.

 

[BigBoyBlueMMA]

I was listening to Phil speak the other day and he singled out Missouri as team he thinks wills make major improvements this year. He believes in Lock and likes what they have coming back.... I disagree.

I concur with YOU

 

[WildCard]

In general, I think we're 4 points better than those lines.

You're gonna be RICH!

Lets remember that these are not "real" lines. For example, the early line for UofL is UK +16.5 but Phil sees it closer to 12.

I was listening to Phil speak the other day and he singled out Missouri as team he thinks wills make major improvements this year. He believes in Lock and likes what they have coming back.... I disagree.

Well, he does put them in his "15 Most Improved" teams. He does like Lock as a potential top QB and thinks Odum's bump up from DC to HC will be less of a transition issue than normally seen with a new HC. They do return 8 starters off a defense that was #6 nationally in yards allowed (302 YPG)and #5 nationally in scoring defense at 16.2 PPG. I had no idea Mizzou was that strong on defense last year and now better understand this "line".

Peace

 

[CatFromDaHood]

I see MSU and Mizzou as wins......7-5

 

[bigbluewildcat84]

I think Mizzu, USC are our SEC wins. Florida would be the dark horse upset. I dont have any tangable stats or info to back up The guess other than a gut feeling.

 

[jauk11]

Did Locke do that much last year? I think BECAUSE of the improved team around him Barker will improve a lot, and if he does improve a lot himself (new QB coach?) then he could improve a lot in the stats------which he HAS to do.

Pretty fair to UK overall, a little low in some places IMO, DBs especially.

So, Transfer U should beat us worse than everyone but Bama and TU? I don't think so.

 

[Loose Rhythm]

I like this team on paper. Unlike the past two, see us getting better as the season goes on . Defense is a concern (specifically in the trenches and linebackers). But I think we can score, and score a lot.

I expect big things on offense

 

[KeepingItReal74]

Will be at every home game this season. All in. This is the year!!!!

 

[jauk11]

Made my first bet of the year today, UK -7 over Southern Miss. Couldn't find the over under to bet, it opened at 5 wins I believe. I hate to tie up money this early, but I like the odds now.

 

[12375CAT]

We will win 8!

NO! You will win 9!

 

[KeepingItReal74]

NO! You will win 9!

Who is you??? We (UK) will win 8!!!

 

[Caveman Catfan]

I"m pissed - I always order mine on line a month in advance and get it before the newsstands get theirs, and mine isn't here yet.

At first blush I would say he has our D-line a little over rated, and DBs under rated and I really don't see being a 6 point dog to Missouri, but maybe they are better then they look on paper with a new coach. OTOH just a 5 point dog to the Dawgs at home is encouraging.

Steele loves the Tigers defense.

 

[CardChipper]

Brooks turned the corner to 8-5 his fourth year. It may be a hunch, but I think you guys have a good year. Good luck.

 

[80 Proof]

I feel like Mizzou is going to be really bad this year, and we'll knock off msu at home.

If our DL plays worth a wet fart we might knock off UF or UGA.

I think we go 7-5 in the regular season.

 

[KeepingItReal74]

If a team we play is having a down year, then that's a must-win game.

In order to truly turn the corner, UK needs quality wins against quality teams. TENN and UGA are those types of teams.

A win against a middle-of-the-road UL team is a must win.

 

[12375CAT]

Who is you??? We (UK) will win 8!!!

Then bowl game will make it 9.

 

[BigBlueFanClub]

I got us playing in the Birmingham Bowl against UCONN.