Not too much of a beast to keep them from losing 13 games last year.
Very true. I suppose the media (and myself) are counting on them growing up a bit. I think they looked good in March last season.
I do think Kentucky will be the better team in March and April. Right now, I'd give the nod to them simply because their identity is formed and UK is still developing one.
Also, although they lost 12 games, they very nearly beat Notre Dame (lost by 1), Duke (lost @ Duke in OT), and almost knocked off Wisconsin in the tournament. 7 of their losses were to teams that were 2 seeds or higher. Another two losses were to Sweet Sixteen teams. I think it says a lot that they weren't able to finish those teams off, though, and
I would agree with your overall sentiment that UNC might very well underachieve again this year.
They were generally sloppy as hell when it mattered most. I'm hoping their point guard problems continue to plague them. If Britt or Berry haven't taken a major step forward, I think UNC loses in March in a game no one really saw coming. They won't lose as many conference games this year, , due in large part to the fact that Notre Dame, Virginia, NC State, Louisville and Duke all took a step backward.
If they end up playing Kentucky, UK's strengths (backcourt) would likely visibly heighten UNC's weaknesses (point guard). Meanwhile, the UK and UNC frontlines could very well negate each other. In such a case, UK has the real advantage because of the fact that they have a transcendent player at guard and in the post, and the fact that Tyler Ulis is a universally better playmaker than anyone UNC will have running the team.