ESPN FPI projects Kentucky's 2021 season

[*Bleedingblue*]

LEXINGTON, Ky. — The ESPN Football Power Index has been updated for the 2021 season, and the formula gives Kentucky an excellent shot at reaching its sixth straight bowl game under head coach Mark Stoops.
The FPI gives the Wildcats an 86.9 percent chance to win at least six games this season. The overall projection has Kentucky at 7-5 on the season, but an exact number of 7.1 wins and 4.9 losses. The Wildcats are the No. 39 overall team nationally in the FPI.
ESPN explains its Football Power Index as follows:

much more here

ESPN FPI projects Kentucky's 2021 season

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[matt_man]

I feel like 7 wins is more of a minimum than an accurate projection. I think we could lose to Florida, Georgia, and LSU, and anything else would be an upset against us.

 

[Grumpyolddawg]

I feel like 7 wins is more of a minimum than an accurate projection. I think we could lose to Florida, Georgia, and LSU, and anything else would be an upset against us.

That's probably pretty accurate, LSU was a different team when they went with Johnson at QB. I just can't see State being much better than last year, will win more games because of the OOC games, but more than 3 SEC games is a stretch, unless they get Vandy from the East 0-8 in conference wouldn't shock me.

With Stoops and Kirby both biting the bullet and going more aggressive offensively, we think, the SEC may look like the Big12 on the scoreboard this fall.

 

[YaketySax]

For the crap FPI is deservedly getting for ranking Miss St. in the preseason Top 10, it was a good predictor of UK from 2014/2015 through 2019. It consistently ranked UK higher than other preseason analytic rankings. Us old folk remember.

 

[Short-Dawg-69]

No joke I can see 9 wins this season plus a chance for 10 with a bowl. Now I am not on recorded just yet and rolling with that prediction. The writing is all over the wall per say with the dudes that decided to come back, transfer additions and a new OC that is bringing in TONS of optimism to our team and fan base.

Stoops has kind of pulled a rabbit out the hat per say in several season when we thought we was doomed with mishaps and injuries.
We stay healthy and able to sling the ball through the air to move the chains, dynamic playmakers on BOTH sides. We could be a dangerous team my friends.

 

[BARRYBLUE1]

I’m of the opinion UK will lose to Mississippi State, being 14 years since last win in Starkville.

 

[vhcat70]

I won't consider 7-5 a successful season. Stoops been here too long for that to be success.

 

[sieken]

I won't consider 7-5 a successful season. Stoops been here too long for that to be success.

I tend to agree with that. Not so much the been here too long part but we have a good team this year. 7-5 would be a disappointment.

 

[SmedMoley]

I don't think you can argue with their predictions that much. I can see why they predict that record. I think some things may fall into place and we punch above that, though. This team could be like the 2018 team, in my mind. I could see a way you win 10 games. There's winnable games beyond those 7.

 

[gamecockcat]

How is Miss St ranked in the top 10? They were awful last year. They're going to go from awful to 10-2? In that division? Losses to Bama, A&M and LSU are almost a given. Auburn, Ole Miss and Arkansas aren't exactly gimmes, either. If they go 7-5, I would consider that a huge success.

I think UK will win 8, if not more. Gotta stay healthy and we've gotta have the type of improvement from the offense that we're all anticipating.

 

[bthaunert]

I hate 7-5. 3 out of the last 4 years (not counting this past weird season), we went 7-5. It's just such a "meh" record. 7-5 keeps Stoops employed without actually having a ton of success. We have got to get over that 7-5 hump and show that 2018 wasn't an outlier. We have got to start finishing in the top 3 in the East every year. That will pretty much guarantee us 4 or more wins in conference. I have been a huge Stoops supporter from day 1, but we have got to take that next step now. We took step 1 in 2016. It's time to take step 2 5 years later.

 

[billoliver40]

7-5 is the best pre season ranking I can remember. The respect and SEC things. I'm not gonna be sad with 7 wins after decades of bad football with a few bright years. I sure would like that 9 win mark though and will take em all.
The State ranking is more than a little puzzling. I suppose it is the Leach factor...the Pirate's second year and more of a chance to get "his" style down locked in. I wouldnt predict them higher than
fourth MAYBE in their division. Bama, aTm, and Arkansas are the top three....with Ol Miss and LSU being far from easy outs. Strange decison on that one

 

[southindycat]

If... IF we field a more productive and at times explosive, balanced offense in conference play, nothing is even close to impossible. Bama is not on the schedule.

 

[DanCat17]

If... IF we field a more productive and at times explosive, balanced offense in conference play, nothing is even close to impossible. Bama is not on the schedule.

We'll see them in the SEC Champ game.

 

[bluecoon1]

7-5 is saying that hey have us at 3-5 in the conference. We were 4-6 last year with a full conference slate without a passing game. If we can manage 150-200 yards through the air with Crod in the backfield, I can’t see anything less than 4-4.

 

[Grumpyolddawg]

7-5 is the best pre season ranking I can remember. The respect and SEC things. I'm not gonna be sad with 7 wins after decades of bad football with a few bright years. I sure would like that 9 win mark though and will take em all.
The State ranking is more than a little puzzling. I suppose it is the Leach factor...the Pirate's second year and more of a chance to get "his" style down locked in. I wouldnt predict them higher than
fourth MAYBE in their division. Bama, aTm, and Arkansas are the top three....with Ol Miss and LSU being far from easy outs. Strange decison on that one

LSU wasn't the same team at the end of the year they were the first half of the year. When they went with Johnson as their starter at QB they improved by leaps and bounds. They may not be able to handle A&M, but its for from a sure thing, unless all the turmoil they have going on brings the team down. But I sure don't see State being ranked like this guy ranked them, they may be the bottom team in the west. Of course that's just my opinion.

 

[westerncat]

It will all depend on how our passing games improves. I feel that has been one of our weakness in the past year. Need a QB that can throw and hit on the deep passes to go along with the running game.

 

[billoliver40]

I tend to think some of these guys in the early early preseason do the safe pick....Alabama in the west, Georgia in the East. Follow Georgia with Florida....now it's aTm because of their strong play last year. in the West. Pick Vandy as the last, then filter in who has a brand new coach. Everthing else is just pick a name and there ya go.

 

[Deeeefense]

My projection of the accuracy of the ESPN's projections for the 2021 football season - about 23% accurate, the same as they and just about every other service is every year.

It's fun to speculate but this kind of stuff is basically click bait.

 

[The-Hack]

I just can't see State being much better than last year,

Haven’t the Dogs lost a WHOLE lot of defensive talent the last two years?

And ain’t Leach’s lack of defensive focus likely to show up just as experienced talent has dried up in their front seven?

 

[The-Hack]

the SEC may look like the Big12 on the scoreboard this fall.

I sure hope not.

But I’m old and Old School . . . .

 

[yes_takeaside]

7-5 would be a disappointment. Looking for 8-4 plus a bowl win.

 

[EliteBlue]

8 wins minimum.

I personally think this is a 9 win season going into the Bowl Game.

 

[bradscats]

I’m calling it. 10-2 regular season. I think we got 1-2 vs Florida, Georgia, and LSU and win the rest.

 

[Grumpyolddawg]

Haven’t the Dogs lost a WHOLE lot of defensive talent the last two years?

And ain’t Leach’s lack of defensive focus likely to show up just as experienced talent has dried up in their front seven?

If you are talking the State dogs they lost a couple bigtime DL and a S a couple years ago, cant remember the year but they played us in Athens. If you are talking UGA dawgs I think they are expecting 5 DB to get drafted and we had another transfer to Miami. But one was lost for the season so we are returning 2 starting S getting a transfer from WV. Losing 2 3 starting LB, 2 to NFL and a transfer to FSU because we rotate too much. So we lose quite a bit, not concerned with the LB, the new guys have played alot, we dont lose much off the DL, I think one guy is back for his 7th year, may be only 6 but he has been here for ever. Took a RS, got a medical RS I think and a free year. He is depth and wont get many snaps.

I sure hope not.

But I’m old and Old School . . . .

Me either, but Muschamp, Mason, Stoops and Kirby were the last coaches that put much effort into stopping the other team, Muschamp and Mason were fired, Stoops and Kirby went with guys that have NFL experience, Monken, our OC, has been a college head coach, OC, NFL OC and QB coach. Your new OC has a similar resume, it remains to be seen if Stoops and Kirby will turn th hem loose.

Watching us play after Daniel's stepped in was fun to watch, we beat UF with him last year, but not Bama. Bennett was ahead until they slammed him and separated his shoulder, he couldnt throw 15 yards.

But Kirby has said we are going to push for more explosive plays, but I gotta see it first.

 

[southindycat]

We'll see them in the SEC Champ game.

Occurred to me after I typed that. Absolutely.

 

[The-Hack]

If you are talking the State dogs

I was talking MSU in the context of Leach’s “O-lay” defenses.

 

[mebeblue2]

with our lack of passing last year i understand the 7-5 projection
i do however think we will be a much better passing team and i think 8-4 will be our floor