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Duke 34 FTs, Auburn Nine - Seems Fair!

Duke is very good. They’re going to have a fantastic record this year. But in the end they’re still freshman dominated. When they get under the bright lights and gut check time in March when the game’s are one-and-done those rims are going to look about the size of a pie pan to those youngsters. That 26 foot trey that Reddish hit last night immediately after Auburn had cut the lead to 7 points won’t be there in those big emotionally pack arenas and domes. Mark it down. A veteran seasoned team is going to take them out of the tournament. When it’s March Madness I’ll take experience/talent over talent any time.
Never been a big Gonzaga fan but they looked pretty good last night. I don't know how good Arizona is but Gonzaga seems to have a lot of the pieces necessary to make a run. Of course, they do this almost every year so who knows?
 
they're still a 3 point shooting team because they have a team full of guys that can make em. This year, however, they have a lineup full of wings that are skilled as shit and can drive and kick or drive to score at the rim. They usually haven't had that. K completely revamped his offense... just like he said he was going to play more like the Warriors and we all laughed because we didn't think they'd have the shooting.

Well... they do. But if the guys want they can also score at the rim. That's the difference. K has a team full of dudes rather than a team full of bitches, like usual.

They are shooting 36% from 3 so let's not act like they are setting the world on fire from deep. They are tied for 121st in the country right now. Let's also not forget they are 264th in the country in free throw percentage. They are not a great shooting team without the dunks and run outs.
 
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Yeah that's been the one thing...........Zion has been foul prone.

Keep them off the court and u got a shot.

I'm also curious to see how they play when a team doesn't try to run with them. A good team that plays at a slower pace.
 
You guys will save yourself a ton of headache and heartache by just not watching Duke games. Don't expect any team to shoot more FTs than they will in any game this year. I doubt anyone even comes within 5 FTs.
 
In the last 5 years........3 of those years Duke has ranked in the top 10 of all NCAA teams in not fouling.

I know some will say that's refs protection.

I see it as a repeatable skill.

You know who else never fouls? Villanova and Michigan.

Some teams year in and year out are consistently good in areas.

Also some teams get to the line.

I mean we have feasted on the line since Cal has gotten here.

But no one would ever say the refs are for us lol.

But Duke never has excellent defenders, they dont have a defensive minded coach, and this year they have offensive minded freshman and a few no names who are suddenly defensive juggernauts.

I don't think so.
 
But Duke never has excellent defenders, they dont have a defensive minded coach, and this year they have offensive minded freshman and a few no names who are suddenly defensive juggernauts.

I don't think so.

But you can have a bad offense or bad defense and still excel at one portion of each.
In 2016, Duke was horrible on defense.........86th in def efficiency. They were however 10th in not fouling. Their biggest problem that year was they couldn't rebound the ball and they didn't force any turnovers.

I realize that people will attribute fouling/not fouling to the refs but we seem to have this talk several times just about different bluebloods.

Apparently UK is the only blueblood not helped by the refs.

It becomes a lame excuse IMO.
 
In the last 5 years........3 of those years Duke has ranked in the top 10 of all NCAA teams in not fouling.

I know some will say that's refs protection.

I see it as a repeatable skill.

You know who else never fouls? Villanova and Michigan.

Some teams year in and year out are consistently good in areas.

Also some teams get to the line.

I mean we have feasted on the line since Cal has gotten here.

But no one would ever say the refs are for us lol.
Duke has not had good defensive players the last 5 years as Coach K who once coached defense, has abandoned his focus on teaching defense because he couldn't get the OADers to play it.

As for your stat, I call your attention to the 2015 NCAA Finals. Wisconsin, who led the country in fewest fouls committed per game, was called for 2 more than Duke (who was not in the top 20 in that category I believe), including 5 in a row at a critical juncture in the 2nd half, and Duke shot 10 more free throws.

The "Duke gets all the calls" is a little overplayed especially the last 15 years but when they are the media darling, they get advantages others teams don't.
 
Duke has not had good defensive players the last 5 years as Coach K who once coached defense, has abandoned his focus on teaching defense because he couldn't get the OADers to play it.

As for your stat, I call your attention to the 2015 NCAA Finals. Wisconsin, who led the country in fewest fouls committed per game, was called for 2 more than Duke (who was not in the top 20 in that category I believe), including 5 in a row at a critical juncture in the 2nd half, and Duke shot 10 more free throws.

The "Duke gets all the calls" is a little overplayed especially the last 15 years but when they are the media darling, they get advantages others teams don't.

Picking a specific game is a weak argument. It’s just cherry picking.

The bottom line is getting fouled on offense or not fouling on defense is a repeatable skill and some teams consistently do it better than others. And no it doesn’t mirror the teams that the refs just happen to like.

As far as Duke not being a good defensive team you are correct but that doesn’t mean you can excel at one aspect.
 
In the last 5 years........3 of those years Duke has ranked in the top 10 of all NCAA teams in not fouling.

I know some will say that's refs protection.

I see it as a repeatable skill.

You know who else never fouls? Villanova and Michigan.

Some teams year in and year out are consistently good in areas.

Also some teams get to the line.

I mean we have feasted on the line since Cal has gotten here.

But no one would ever say the refs are for us lol.


Villanova actually played a game last year with ZERO fouls.
 
But you can have a bad offense or bad defense and still excel at one portion of each.
In 2016, Duke was horrible on defense.........86th in def efficiency. They were however 10th in not fouling. Their biggest problem that year was they couldn't rebound the ball and they didn't force any turnovers.

I realize that people will attribute fouling/not fouling to the refs but we seem to have this talk several times just about different bluebloods.

Apparently UK is the only blueblood not helped by the refs.

It becomes a lame excuse IMO.

So 86 in defensive efficiency, 10th in fouls committed?

You're proving my point.
 
The key to beating Duke seems to be eliminating easy run outs and taking advantage when they get in foul trouble. Zion, Barrett and Cam both have been in foul trouble several times but other teams haven't taken advantage of it.
Agree, plus the fact that everyone they've played so far has gotten off to a really bad start against them.
 
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Mark it down. A veteran seasoned team is going to take them out of the tournament. When it’s March Madness I’ll take experience/talent over talent any time.

You’re doing that thing where you get the field vs 1 team. Not duke, fine. Who will win it then?
 
Just my observation from watching our game with Duke and their game last night is that RJ Barrett pushes off on every drive and I have yet to see the refs call it. I can recall 4-5 easy calls for the refs to make and they didn't make any of them. I can understand missing one or two but not calling any of them is not incompetence it's bias.
 
But you can have a bad offense or bad defense and still excel at one portion of each.
In 2016, Duke was horrible on defense.........86th in def efficiency. They were however 10th in not fouling. Their biggest problem that year was they couldn't rebound the ball and they didn't force any turnovers.

I realize that people will attribute fouling/not fouling to the refs but we seem to have this talk several times just about different bluebloods.

Apparently UK is the only blueblood not helped by the refs.

It becomes a lame excuse IMO.
Worse than that, we're the only blueblood consistently screwed over by the refs. The mf-ers...
 
Man, what a coincidence. You think maybe Duke has something to do witj that happening every time?
Right, you're a genius. I guess missing wide open three's and layups are due to Duke's great defense. I"ll be looking for you as a color analyst.
 
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The whole Auburn just shot 3s argument is tiring and just wrong.

42% of Auburn's shots were 3s...46% of Dukes shots were.

Would be one thing if Duke shot it more, but Auburn shot 23 more times, a smaller percentage of 3s, yet went to the line 25 fewer times.

Ridiculous.
 
Comparing % of 3s by team is a wasteful exercise.

There's teams that shoot a lot of threes and still draw fouls when they do drive to the hoop.

Conversely there's teams that take a bunch of 2s and never get to the line.

People are focusing on the wrong thing here if they are just looking at 3s.

The correlation between % from 3 and getting foul just isn't as large as one might think it is.
 
Comparing % of 3s by team is a wasteful exercise.

There's teams that shoot a lot of threes and still draw fouls when they do drive to the hoop.

Conversely there's teams that take a bunch of 2s and never get to the line.

People are focusing on the wrong thing here if they are just looking at 3s.

The correlation between % from 3 and getting foul just isn't as large as one might think it is.

How about we use FT rate instead? Here's where Auburn ranks nationally in that stat since Pearl took over:

2018 36th
2017 23rd
2016 71st
2015 2nd

Are you telling me Auburn doesn't attack the rim? Or did they suddenly just forget to attack the rim to the point they didn't attempt a single FT in the entire 1st half last night?
 
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How about we use FT rate instead? Here's where Auburn ranks nationally in that stat since Pearl took over:

2018 36th
2017 23rd
2016 71st
2015 2nd

Are you telling me Auburn doesn't attack the rim? Or did they suddenly just forget to attack the rim to the point they didn't attempt a single FT in the entire 1st half last night?

Right but they are also 314th ranked in that category this season (albeit just 5 games) and they went up against a defense who also had a good FT Rate.

Duke the past few years have ranked:
2018 1st
2017 79th
2016 10th
2015 4th

So I mean I can ask the same question right? Did Duke suddenly forget how to not foul when it's been a staple of their defense under Coach K recently?

I don't know what's true but with different aspects of the games, the offense or defense has more control. Maybe if a good FT rate offense meets a good FT rate defense, the defense wins out. I'm not sure on that.

OR we could just say this is all what teams on AVERAGE do and can vary widely on a game by game basis.
 
Can't really use stats from this season when most of your games are against cupcakes. And it wouldn't be so bad if we didn't have tweets, like the one on the previous page, where it's pretty obvious that the officials missed what should have been a shooting foul against Duke. It should be interesting to see what Auburn does vs Arizona tonight.
 
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Can't really use stats from this season when most of your games are against cupcakes. And it wouldn't be so bad if we didn't have tweets, like the one on the previous page, where it's pretty obvious that the officials missed what should have been a shooting foul against Duke. It should be interesting to see what Auburn does vs Arizona tonight.

Yeah I agree with that. The 314th rank means very little.
That being said the refs missing a shooting foul against Duke is pretty much meaningless as well since we all know refs miss calls from time to time.

It's not even about Duke vs Gonzaga IMO.

It's this notion that on a game by game basis, one team (or several teams) tend to get way more benefit than other teams. And the notion that disparity in free throws indicates ref bias.

There's just no evidence of that at all.
 
How about we use FT rate instead? Here's where Auburn ranks nationally in that stat since Pearl took over:

2018 36th
2017 23rd
2016 71st
2015 2nd

Are you telling me Auburn doesn't attack the rim? Or did they suddenly just forget to attack the rim to the point they didn't attempt a single FT in the entire 1st half last night?
Good points. We have been an excellent FT shooting team the last couple of years. Only guy on the team who isn't a decent FT shooter is Wiley and of course he was the only guy the refs put on the line last night aside from Harper's single trip. Wiley was fouled 2 or 3 times before the whistle was blow as well.

They people arguing the FT disparity was only due to Duke being more aggressive need to rewatch the game. Two possession in a row before the half, Harper went to the basket and was clearly fouled and yet no whistle. That should have been 4 FTs right there. Off the top of my head, there were at least 3 more shots in the paint where our guys were clearly fouled. 10 more FTs would have been the difference in the game.
 
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