digging into the #'s, UK vs KU

[JonathanW]

A few things stand out to me.

- we have the best rebounder in a generation (or two) of all of college basketball, especially on the offensive end. Playing a team that essentially plays a PG, 2 SF, a combo F, and a PF (no C), and we get out rebounded by 5, and even more shocking is the offensive boards battle was also lost 4 to 8. Oscar who had not been out rebounded by an Opponent until his really bad game vs Bama, was outrebounded again, this time by a 6'6 SG/SF (on a bad ankle 1/3 of the game). WTF!
- KU did not shoot lights out from 3, 6-16 = 37.5%. It just feels like it when they made 4 of last 5, so before that final 4min clutch stretch was just 2-11, yet still hanging onto small lead. We just shot bad, 2-13, take away Wallace and 0-10.
- They took 12 more FGAs (6 for 12 more, which is 12+ points) than us. Which is also a bit confusing. They got 4 more offensive rebounds, and had 1 less TO, so I would expect about 5 more shots. But I suppose the difference was that we turned those other 7 fewer FGA's into FTAs (see below).
- Yes we took more FTA's, even though it appeared we were not getting a favorable whistle, if anything it may have slightly favored KU (Wilson lowers shoulder foul on Toppin, Toppin lowers shoulder charge correctly called), although more than the fouls was the travels I noticed (at least 3 obvious KU travels not called). But part of the reason we had more FTs was that they had no other way to slow down our AA than to foul him (Oscar had almost as many FTA as KU, 8 to 10). Yet while we did not shoot FTs horribly 70%, actually pretty decent after 1-4 start making 79% after, we still attempted 13 more FTA for only 7 more pts.
- With all the emphasis on the 3pt shot, and KU essentially playing 'small-ball, the 2 teams COMBINED for only 13 FGs outside the paint (and 1 of those was only 10' away from the rim). 13 out of 56 made FGs (23%); 39 (70%) within 6' of the rim. This is why you need rim-protection! And why we should have played Onyenso more so far this year, so he could contribute in these high level games, even if just 10min.

 

[Sparkaces1]

A few things stand out to me.

- we have the best rebounder in a generation (or two) of all of college basketball, especially on the offensive end. Playing a team that essentially plays a PG, 2 SF, a combo F, and a PF (no C), and we get out rebounded by 5, and even more shocking is the offensive boards battle was also lost 4 to 8. Oscar who had not been out rebounded by an Opponent until his really bad game vs Bama, was outrebounded again, this time by a 6'6 SG/SF (on a bad ankle 1/3 of the game). WTF!
- KU did not shoot lights out from 3, 6-16 = 37.5%. It just feels like it when they made 4 of last 5, so before that final 4min clutch stretch was just 2-11, yet still hanging onto small lead. We just shot bad, 2-13, take away Wallace and 0-10.
- They took 12 more FGAs (6 for 12 more, which is 12+ points) than us. Which is also a bit confusing. They got 4 more offensive rebounds, and had 1 less TO, so I would expect about 5 more shots. But I suppose the difference was that we turned those other 7 fewer FGA's into FTAs (see below).
- Yes we took more FTA's, even though it appeared we were not getting a favorable whistle, if anything it may have slightly favored KU (Wilson lowers shoulder foul on Toppin, Toppin lowers shoulder charge correctly called), although more than the fouls was the travels I noticed (at least 3 obvious KU travels not called). But part of the reason we had more FTs was that they had no other way to slow down our AA than to foul him (Oscar had almost as many FTA as KU, 8 to 10). Yet while we did not shoot FTs horribly 70%, actually pretty decent after 1-4 start making 79% after, we still attempted 13 more FTA for only 7 more pts.
- With all the emphasis on the 3pt shot, and KU essentially playing 'small-ball, the 2 teams COMBINED for only 13 FGs outside the paint (and 1 of those was only 10' away from the rim). 13 out of 56 made FGs (23%); 39 (70%) within 6' of the rim. This is why you need rim-protection! And why we should have played Onyenso more so far this year, so he could contribute in these high level games, even if just 10min.

One of the biggest reasons for the downfall the last three years is the shot blocking, no doubt about it, for all Oscar does great he is just a horrible defender.

 

[kyjeff1]

Oscar was getting boxed out by 2 guys at all times, other UK guys should have been getting those rebounds, they didn’t.

Pick-pick-n-roll defense is still an issue.

Outside shooting is a huge issue. If our guys can consistently hit from the outside, that alone would fix a lot of problems.

 

[K_TIME]

1. Great point...why Toppin only gets 4 boards, Livingston 2, Reeves 2....our forwards should have been unchecked on boards if Oscar is taking 2 guys
2. Our pick and roll defense with Oscar is abysmal....so why not try trapping ball screen, heaven forbid a zone concept, hedge it better and help defense more ready.....but the constant strategy with Oscar on pick and roll is abysmal.

 

[ruppsrunt66]

play a ZONE defense now and again. Change the game. make a foe adjust.

not with this guy in charge.

 

[North Carolina Blue Wildcat]

The reason Livingston should have been in.. you want to double Oscar-Ok, can’t keep Livingston off the boards that way.

 

[uk78]

The coaching has been beyond weird in terms of decisions on who plays and combinations. I don't know if we would have won but disappointing to lose at home.

If I want to come up with positives in defending Cal with his playing Ware is his hope that he will develop to be a real threat by the end of the year. The obvious problem with that thinking is we won't be in the tourney for it to make a difference.

The reason to play Wheeler is he fits perfectly with the "go" speed that Cal always wants and has been good in some games. The obvious problem is with the make-up of this team Wheeler is not a good fit.

 

[TheDude73]

The coaching has been beyond weird in terms of decisions on who plays and combinations. I don't know if we would have won but disappointing to lose at home.

If I want to come up with positives in defending Cal with his playing Ware is his hope that he will develop to be a real threat by the end of the year. The obvious problem with that thinking is we won't be in the tourney for it to make a difference.

The reason to play Wheeler is he fits perfectly with the "go" speed that Cal always wants and has been good in some games. The obvious problem is with the make-up of this team Wheeler is not a good fit.

This bold part is why Cal is so confusing. He has the "go" speed, but then Wheeler crosses the line and stands there pounding the ball until he's forced to rush with 5 seconds on the shot clock.

We used to have the Cal "go" "run" type of team, but since the Wisconsin game, all we have is Cal Stall Ball. So Wheeler makes no sense, or Cal makes no sense, or perhaps neither makes sense, when we have a PG that is designed for a sped up offense, yet we regularly fall back into stall ball.

I'm confused now just typing that.

 

[uk78]

Well Wheeler gets down the court fast until doing what you describe.

 

[UKBB4Ever]

Kansas did not play a great game. We could have beaten them. Oscar played great. But as someone else mentioned, Oscar is not a good defender. His defense is his defensive rebounds and the occasional jumping in the passing lane.

The Kansas game plan was the same as last year. Double and triple Oscar and dare someone else to beat them. Last year Brooks stepped up. Then they had to adjust to Brooks and Oscar could get free.

This year no one stepped up so they just boxed Oscar with 3 men all night. It appeared to me that Livingston might be the guy to step into the void but Cal took him out.

I think Thiero would have thrived in that moment. But obviously Cal doesn't agree.

As for our rebounding, we only have Oscar. No one else is even halfway good at rebounding. They should clean up on the boards since they are not being boxed out. But the rest of the team has shown us for 2 seasons that they are not going to do that. Someone might step in for a game or two here and there. But we cannot count on it.

Kansas exploited that twice. It didn't work for them last year. It did this year.

 

[TheDude73]

Well Wheeler gets down the court fast until doing what you describe.

Reminds me of the military...."hurry up and wait".

 

[Creed Bratton]

I agree on Oscar getting doubled on every offensive rebound opportunity. They were going to make someone else get the boards and they didn't. Of course Livingston didn't get an opportunity in the 2nd half because Cal forgot to play him despite Toppin being in foul trouble. 🤷‍♂️

 

[JonathanW]

One of the biggest reasons for the downfall the last three years is the shot blocking, no doubt about it, for all Oscar does great he is just a horrible defender.

Agree, all of Cal's best teams have been good at blocking shots, I think with his style defense that is important. And we've not had that since Richards left. In order, I would say our best shot blockers (since Cal) have been:
AD 2012 (championship)
Noel 2013 (NIT, BUT who knows if he not get hurt, they were getting hot)
WCS 2014 (lost in finals, after he got hurt)
Jackson 2021 (trying to forget it)
Towns 2015 (Final 4)
Richards 2020 (who knows, tourny canceled, but was looking like one of the favorites)
Or by Team:
2012 (8.6/gm) championship
2010 (7.1) E8 & #1 seed
2015 (6.6) F4
2013 (6.6) Noel injury
2011 (6.3) F4, without an elite shot blocker

Not had a team over 6.0 since 2015, only 1 team (2021) over 5.0 since 2017, past 2 years 4.2/gm.

I wouldn't call Oscar a horrible defender. He is a limited one. He isn't going to get manhandled and backed-down like some might. He has good lateral quickness, good quick twich muscles. But the anticipation instincts and vertical elevation/explosion aren't there.

------

But to your point, Onyenso looks like he could be in that Noel / AD level of shot blocking with just a little development. I think he is already (raw) at the WCS / Richards level.

 

[JonathanW]

I agree on Oscar getting doubled on every offensive rebound opportunity. They were going to make someone else get the boards and they didn't. Of course Livingston didn't get an opportunity in the 2nd half because Cal forgot to play him despite Toppin being in foul trouble. 🤷‍♂️

Toppin didn't get into foul trouble until late, the (bad) block call and the charge call (that was nearly identical). But yeah Cal should have played Livingston more in 2nd half, but I think tried to hard to make that Wallace/Reeves/Fredrick/Toppin/Oscar lineup work in the 2nd half, when shots weren't going in.

 

[Creed Bratton]

I guess I was thinking of the first half. I remember he picked up his 2nd around the under 8:00 TV timeout and sat the rest of the half. For some reason I thought he picked one up earlier in the 2nd half and sat some time too.

 

[kyjeff1]

The coaching has been beyond weird in terms of decisions on who plays and combinations. I don't know if we would have won but disappointing to lose at home.

If I want to come up with positives in defending Cal with his playing Ware is his hope that he will develop to be a real threat by the end of the year. The obvious problem with that thinking is we won't be in the tourney for it to make a difference.

The reason to play Wheeler is he fits perfectly with the "go" speed that Cal always wants and has been good in some games. The obvious problem is with the make-up of this team Wheeler is not a good fit.

I've said it before, Wheeler is a master at making it appear like he's the hardest working person on the court and he's doing great and a lot if people think he did fine Saturday night…… .


He ended up -7 for the game.

 

[kyjeff1]

Toppin didn't get into foul trouble until late, the (bad) block call and the charge call (that was nearly identical). But yeah Cal should have played Livingston more in 2nd half, but I think tried to hard to make that Wallace/Reeves/Fredrick/Toppin/Oscar lineup work in the 2nd half, when shots weren't going in.

Cal said he didn’t play Livingston because KU wasn't guarding him on the outside.

What Cal DIDN’T say, was that KU wasn't guarding him at the 3 spot. Move Chris to the 4 and put your 3 shooters in and KU has to guard him.

 

[K_TIME]

Cal said he didn’t play Livingston because KU wasn't guarding him on the outside.

What Cal DIDN’T say, was that KU wasn't guarding him at the 3 spot. Move Chris to the 4 and put your 3 shooters in and KU has to guard him.

Agreed....is a constant merry go round of confusion with Cal and his decision making.

1. Teams have been face guarding Oscar on rebounding for a long time...even last year. So it's not new or an excuse. Kansas just did a great job of gang rebounding.
2. So then why aren't we sending 3-4 guys to the boards or Kansas abandoning any fast breaks?
3. Toppin should be a mediocre at worst rebounder...and if he is not...then play Livingston at the 4....not rocket science.

 

[JonathanW]

CL did play some 4 (finally). But our shooters were missing, so might as well play Livingston instead of one of them.
Toppin has been an up & down rebounder this year. 6.5/gm, 6.7 per 30min is ok, not great. After Oscar & Onyenso, the next best 2 have been Toppin and Collins at 6.7, they should be closer to 8. After them it drops off to 6.0 (Ware, he was 9.0 last year), 5.9 Theiro, and 5.0 (Livingston, not good).

 

[kyjeff1]

Agreed....is a constant merry go round of confusion with Cal and his decision making.

1. Teams have been face guarding Oscar on rebounding for a long time...even last year. So it's not new or an excuse. Kansas just did a great job of gang rebounding.
2. So then why aren't we sending 3-4 guys to the boards or Kansas abandoning any fast breaks?
3. Toppin should be a mediocre at worst rebounder...and if he is not...then play Livingston at the 4....not rocket science.

All week long, everyone (fans and media) talked about how KU had no answer for Oscar and that he might get 30 rebounds.

As soon as I started hearing that narrative, I knew we were going to lose the rebounding battle.

We weren't competing against a Mike White coached team, Bill Self is a great coach and he showed how much better he is at his profession than Cal is.

 

[Sandlers T-Shirt]

I miss Keion's rebounding.

 

[JonathanW]

I miss Keion's rebounding.

Seriously!!?

Brooks rebounding by year, 3.2, 6.8, 4.4 /gm. His per30min Reb averages were 6.3, 8.6, 5.4

 

[uk78]

I miss Ugo, Theiro, and Collins,

 

[The_Answer1313]

Offensive rebounding is a huge portion of our offense.

During the 4 game win streak offensive rebounding %
UT = 40.6%
Georgia = 37.2%
Texas AM = 38.6%
Vandy = 30.4%
______________________________
KU = 13.3%

One of those number isn't like the others.

We are a meh shooting team. We take decent care of the ball and we don't get to the line anywhere near the rate we used to in earlier Cal seasons.

If this team doesn't rebound offensively, this team will struggle to win ballgames. Period.

 

[HerrosHeroes]

They mugged O all night with double teams and we got one dang call in Rupp Freakin Arena.
These refs hate UK and Cal.
Give me 5 min in a room with that squirt Pat Adams and I would alleviate some of the problems.

 

[HerrosHeroes]

I miss Keion's rebounding.

“I miss Billy the Kid, the life that he lived, I miss Billy the Kid.”