Conference Expansion: Will There Be A Casualty?

[Perrin75]

I know this is all early in the process, but speculation is so much fun! Back during the last major shake-up when we saw the Big East get shoved onto the Conference Ice Flow there was a lot of speculation as to who would be the lucky team to earn the ACC's 12th spot. UofL eventually won that spot, but the smart money at the time was on UConn. They were coming off national titles in Men's and Women's basketball. They had won the conference and played in the Fiesta Bowl a year or so prior. Add in the connections to ESPN, and everyone was speculating that the Huskies were a lock.

Well as we know, things didn't work out for Connecticut. But I don't think anyone would have predicted that this decision would send UConn Football on a death spiral that would eventually see them leaving D-1 football completely. The question for me now is do we see a similar fate fall one of the teams that is going to be left behind in this round of Super Conference Shuffle. For me, the obvious team to look at his Kansas. They are cannon fodder on the Football field, they don't bring a major TV market, and they simply may not get an offer from one of the big remaining conferences. I wonder if a basketball focused future might eventually make more sense to them.

Anyone else want to make a prediction? Who do you see possibly giving up the dream of Division I football after all the smoke clears?

 

[-COUNTRY-CLUB-JOE-]

It all depends on what happens with the BIG12. It could be Kansas. I could also see it being a team like Kansas St that's had some good years in football and basketball if the conference falls apart. They're out in the middle of nowhere. Some of the other TX schools might meet the PAC12's academic requirements, but not secular schools. So maybe a Baylor.

 

[NamelessOne]

Basketball doesnt draw so Kansas is not going to get an offer. As far as other predictions, it's hard to say but I'll give it a shot

Ones that survive
Iowa St will be picked up somewhere, probably Big 10
West Virginia to the ACC
Oklahoma St to Pac 12
Texas Tech to Pac 12

Ones that are definitely dead
Kansas

50/50
Kansas st.
Baylor
TCU

 

[mrschwump]

No one, too much money.

 

[Grumpyolddawg]

Basketball doesnt draw so Kansas is not going to get an offer. As far as other predictions, it's hard to say but I'll give it a shot

Ones that survive
Iowa St will be picked up somewhere, probably Big 10
West Virginia to the ACC
Oklahoma St to Pac 12
Texas Tech to Pac 12

Ones that are definitely dead
Kansas

50/50
Kansas st.
Baylor
TCU

I agree Iowa State, WVU and OSU will get picked up by one of the remaining 3, but I would add TCU to the list too. Getting into Texas is a big deal for recruiting and TCU has had some recent success and Baylor adds quite a bit in both male and female BB. Enough to at least have a shot. Kansas may be dead, but they do have selling power in BB, no idea if that will be enough, maybe for the ACC,they are actually a good fit for the ACC.

But I think the Big12 tries to survive with new teams.

 

[FtWorthCat]

I think Kansas will be fine because they are in the Kansas City market. They are probably the most likely to get invited to the Big 10 out of all the remaining Big XII teams. They haven't always been this bad at football. They are only about a decade removed from winning the Orange Bowl.

The Big XII needs to add Houston, Memphis, Cincinnati and South Florida if they want to stay in existence.

 

[gamalielkid]

I think Kansas will be fine because they are in the Kansas City market. They are probably the most likely to get invited to the Big 10 out of all the remaining Big XII teams. They haven't always been this bad at football. They are only about a decade removed from winning the Orange Bowl.

The Big XII needs to add Houston, Memphis, Cincinnati and South Florida if they want to stay in existence.

Why the love for USF - or do you think UCF would not consider that conference? If the super conference thing is going to happen - if I am the ACC I would go for WVU and UCF to add. UCF is a new school - but. they are becoming huge in many, many ways. Size, Academics and Sports.

Go Big Blue!

 

[mrschwump]

Why the love for USF - or do you think UCF would not consider that conference? If the super conference thing is going to happen - if I am the ACC I would go for WVU and UCF to add. UCF is a new school - but. they are becoming huge in many, many ways. Size, Academics and Sports.

Go Big Blue!

WVU strikes me as more a Big 10 school than ACC.

 

[trueblujr2]

It all depends on what happens with the BIG12. It could be Kansas. I could also see it being a team like Kansas St that's had some good years in football and basketball if the conference falls apart. They're out in the middle of nowhere. Some of the other TX schools might meet the PAC12's academic requirements, but not secular schools. So maybe a Baylor.

The question is does the Big12 try to salvage something by inviting a couple of the better non-power 5 programs? Cincinnati? Memphis? To name a couple? Maybe a Central Florida? (Since geographics are out the window anymore) do they raid the Pac12 for someone like Utah?

 

[CatGotMyTongue]

WVU strikes me as more a Big 10 school than ACC.

B10 academics preclude WVU

 

[mrschwump]

B10 academics preclude WVU

Maybe but I'd think ACC academics would be ahead of Big 10.

 

[-COUNTRY-CLUB-JOE-]

I'm going to wait and see what the Dude of WV has to say.

 

[billoliver40]

Sorry, the ACC and athletics plus academics died at North Carolona. Louisville was supposed to be a question in the day.
Cant see them keeping out West Virginia based on academia.

The ACC wants Notre Dame in the worst way. I think that will be their push....they are halfway there already.

 

[UKBrassowTipIN]

It all depends on what happens with the BIG12. It could be Kansas. I could also see it being a team like Kansas St that's had some good years in football and basketball if the conference falls apart. They're out in the middle of nowhere. Some of the other TX schools might meet the PAC12's academic requirements, but not secular schools. So maybe a Baylor.

My opinion is the big12 folds completely and all the remaining teams fall into the American conference that aren't poached. Kansas has zero football worth so American. I'm not sure the academic requirements but TCU would be good for Pac12 and then Boise st.

WVU to the acc, with them considering Cincy too. Maybe Navy or if you can get notre dame to stop being a bitch.

Big10, again I don't know their academic requirements- but Iowa state, one more out of big12 or maybe UCF

Everyone else in American.

 

[Smashcat]

The ACC wants Notre Dame in the worst way. I think that will be their push....they are halfway there already.

I hate ND and the ACC but it would be a good move.

 

[FtWorthCat]

The Big XII has had discussions with BYU in the past. So if the Big XII survives, it will probably add Houston Cincinnati, UCF (instead of USF) and BYU.

As a secondary TCU fan, I say give me the PAC-12 first, and Big XII expansion if that isn't an option. TCU, Baylor and Texas Tech have reportedly already reached out to the PAC-12.

 

[ok-cats-computer]

Maybe but I'd think ACC academics would be ahead of Big 10.

Not after the ACC took Louisville. The ACC lowered the academic bar to impossible limbo levels when it let Louisville in.

 

[Grumpyolddawg]

Everything seems to be happening quickly, Texas and OU told Big12 they were leaving. As of 5 PM Monday they haven't formally applied to become a member of the SEC, but SEC presidents have a called meeting scheduled Thursday. I guess this probably goes alone the lines of hiring a coach, he isnt officially offered until he has said he will accept.

 

[The Public Enemy]

Not after the ACC took Louisville. The ACC lowered the academic bar to impossible limbo levels when it let Louisville in.

You are correct. WVU doesn’t have a chance in hell in getting into the Big Ten. You have to be a member of the Association of American Universities-(Nebraska was a member until being booted out after they got into the Big Ten) and that is the Elite of Elite of College Academia.

When the ACC took Louisville they really went beyond limbo limits and if I’m not mistaken WVU is currently lower than Louisville, The only way the ACC takes WVU is if their TV Partner ESPN tells them it would boost the current TV Deal.

 

[Catfanlou]

Basketball doesnt draw so Kansas is not going to get an offer. As far as other predictions, it's hard to say but I'll give it a shot

Ones that survive
Iowa St will be picked up somewhere, probably Big 10
West Virginia to the ACC
Oklahoma St to Pac 12
Texas Tech to Pac 12

Ones that are definitely dead
Kansas

50/50
Kansas st.
Baylor
TCU

Kansas is an AAU school and therefore acceptable to the Big 10 . They will b fine either in the Big Ten or Pac Ten.
I see both the Big Ten and SEC raiding the ACC by attracting Norte Dame and eight other teams .
I was surprised to c last night how little ND makes from TV 15 plus 7.5 plus some bowl money . They are losing over twenty million a year by not joining either the Big Ten or SEC .

while they are obligated to the ACC tru 2035 that can change if 8 of the remaining 15 agree to dissolve the league.
So Big ten takes Kansas, NotreDame, Virginia ,Duke , North Carolina and One other school
SEC takes Clemson, Fla State, Miami, Texas , Oklahoma and one other school.
UL reverts to mid major status . Maybe remaining ACC and AAC merge for one gigantic mediocre conf .
Amounts received by the SEC and Big Ten would b incredible. ND wouLDG make over 40 million more a year . They simply couldn’t turn it down.

 

[The Public Enemy]

Kansas is an AAU school and therefore acceptable to the Big 10 . They will b fine either in the Big Ten or Pac Ten.
I see both the Big Ten and SEC raiding the ACC by attracting Norte Dame and eight other teams .
I was surprised to c last night how little ND makes from TV 15 plus 7.5 plus some bowl money . They are losing over twenty million a year by not joining either the Big Ten or SEC .

while they are obligated to the ACC tru 2035 that can change if 8 of the remaining 15 agree to dissolve the league.
So Big ten takes Kansas, NotreDame, Virginia ,Duke , North Carolina and One other school
SEC takes Clemson, Fla State, Miami, Texas , Oklahoma and one other school.
UL reverts to mid major status . Maybe remaining ACC and AAC merge for one gigantic mediocre conf .
Amounts received by the SEC and Big Ten would b incredible. ND wouLDG make over 40 million more a year . They simply couldn’t turn it down.

Notre Dame doesn’t care about conference...they aren’t joining any league and as long they have access to the CFP that all they are concerned about. Notre Dame just thinks differently. Also rumbling that maybe the ACC might go up to 20 Schools...depends on what ESPN Tells them and this is coming out of National Media,

As for the ACC due to the Grant of Rights...it would cause any member with what it is being reported upwards to almost Half A Billion due to the fact the ACC Still has 15 years left on their current deal. Don’t really expect any movement away from the ACC until later this decade if anyone leaves...much like with Texas and Oklahoma. The next domino to watch isn’t the ACC but the Pac 12...there deal is due to expire and rumbling that Southern Cal isn’t too happy.

 

[NamelessOne]

Kansas is an AAU school and therefore acceptable to the Big 10 . They will b fine either in the Big Ten or Pac Ten.
I see both the Big Ten and SEC raiding the ACC by attracting Norte Dame and eight other teams .
I was surprised to c last night how little ND makes from TV 15 plus 7.5 plus some bowl money . They are losing over twenty million a year by not joining either the Big Ten or SEC .

while they are obligated to the ACC tru 2035 that can change if 8 of the remaining 15 agree to dissolve the league.
So Big ten takes Kansas, NotreDame, Virginia ,Duke , North Carolina and One other school
SEC takes Clemson, Fla State, Miami, Texas , Oklahoma and one other school.
UL reverts to mid major status . Maybe remaining ACC and AAC merge for one gigantic mediocre conf .
Amounts received by the SEC and Big Ten would b incredible. ND wouLDG make over 40 million more a year . They simply couldn’t turn it down.

I know ruppbrains think basketball matter, but it simply doesnt. You can wave around the AAU as much as you want, Kansas isn't going anywhere. Big Ten even came out and said they weren't talking to Kansas. What other sign do you need? They're dead. No one give a shit about basketball on a national scale and the ratings are among the worst in all of sports.

Also since Nebraska lost AAU status, it doesn't really matter much anymore. I doubt Big Ten will expand as they have no real reason to unless they can get a huge team. Kansas wouldnt make unless Big Ten expands to 70 plus teams. Get real dude.

 

[TeoJ]

All teams should be in conference to be eligible for CFP.

 

[Jayrob4]

When the Big 12 dissolves, everyone will be absorbed into the remaining power conferences, assuming each ends up with 16 teams:

SEC (14 right now): Texas, Oklahoma
Big 10 (14 right now): Iowa St, Kansas
ACC (15 right now): WVU
Pac 12 (12 right now): Kansas St, Baylor, Texas Tech, Oklahoma St

TCU goes back to being a mid-major somewhere.

 

[K_TIME]

When the Big 12 dissolves, everyone will be absorbed into the remaining power conferences, assuming each ends up with 16 teams:

SEC (14 right now): Texas, Oklahoma
Big 10 (14 right now): Iowa St, Kansas
ACC (15 right now): WVU
Pac 12 (12 right now): Kansas St, Baylor, Texas Tech, Oklahoma St

TCU goes back to being a mid-major somewhere.

I think this makes the most logical sense as to next 2-3 years of how things unfold. But I do see a few further ramifications:
1. The $$$ SEC will generate will further pull the conference past BIg 10. And ACC and PAC12 will likely be at 2/3 to 1/2 the revenue of SEC teams. So that tells me SEC will have way more money to offer kids in NIL deals as well as retain coaches and facilities.
2. I think the above will have recruiting ramifications for years to come. I do wonder if Clemson will be able to keep up as they have in past years.
3. I do see a world where the new playoffs that give automatic bids to ACC and PAC 12....middle tier SEC teams will have an argument they are better than playoff teams from other conferences and then we'll see a new shuffling of the chairs 5-10 years down the road.

 

[-COUNTRY-CLUB-JOE-]

PAC12 is not taking a Baptist school. WVU would give the ACC an odd number (15) for football.

 

[Jayrob4]

PAC12 is not taking a Baptist school. WVU would give the ACC an odd number (15) for football.

People assume the PAC 12 wouldn’t take a religious school but there’s no rule against it. I think they’d take Baylor.

Notre Dame is an ACC school, they’re not fooling anyone. They played a full ACC schedule last year were eligible for the ACC championship. Now I could see them switching to the Big 10, where they probably belong, which means the ACC would pick up an AAC school or snag a big 10 school

 

[FtWorthCat]

When the Big 12 dissolves, everyone will be absorbed into the remaining power conferences, assuming each ends up with 16 teams:

SEC (14 right now): Texas, Oklahoma
Big 10 (14 right now): Iowa St, Kansas
ACC (15 right now): WVU
Pac 12 (12 right now): Kansas St, Baylor, Texas Tech, Oklahoma St

TCU goes back to being a mid-major somewhere.

TCU is more desirable in a lot of ways, market, overall strength of athletic department, etc. than K-State. K-State has a huge fan base, but not a whole lot else to offer.

 

[FtWorthCat]

PAC12 is not taking a Baptist school. WVU would give the ACC an odd number (15) for football.

It would make sense for the ACC to add West Virginia and Cincinnati.

 

[Jayrob4]

TCU is more desirable in a lot of ways, market, overall strength of athletic department, etc. than K-State. K-State has a huge fan base, but not a whole lot else to offer.

I could see that. I left TCU out just because they seem to have had the least amount of athletic success in recent years of the PAC 12 candidates but I admittedly don’t know much about the school sizes, financials, TV markets, non-revenue sports.

 

[-COUNTRY-CLUB-JOE-]

Notre Dame is an ACC school, they’re not fooling anyone. They played a full ACC schedule last year were eligible for the ACC championship. Now I could see them switching to the Big 10, where they probably belong, which means the ACC would pick up an AAC school or snag a big 10 school

What I'm saying is that you have the ACC at 15 right now, which is true except for football. That was a one year deal with ND because of covid. So adding just WVU would give us an odd number of teams.

And ND will never join the B1G. They're an old BIG East school with all the subway alumni in the northeast and mid-atlantic. They recruit nationally. Joining the B1G would regionalize them because they lose there footprint in the south. Not to mention they're a small private catholic school, so they share nothing in common with the B1G schools. The ACC is a much better fit, but until they join, they're still an independent.

 

[Wildcats520]

Not sure if it’s been talked about, but I would bet Kansas is going to the Big 10 mainly because of their AAU status. Same goes for Iowa State. Those academic grants actually dwarf athletic money and if I recall correctly all big 10 schools are AAU.

 

[The Public Enemy]

When the Big 12 dissolves, everyone will be absorbed into the remaining power conferences, assuming each ends up with 16 teams:

SEC (14 right now): Texas, Oklahoma
Big 10 (14 right now): Iowa St, Kansas
ACC (15 right now): WVU
Pac 12 (12 right now): Kansas St, Baylor, Texas Tech, Oklahoma St

TCU goes back to being a mid-major somewhere.

Many feel TV is really the driving factor with this...SEC & ACC Disney/ESPN...Big Ten/Pac 12 FOX....

Also this from the Pac 12 Commish this morning

 

[-COUNTRY-CLUB-JOE-]

TCU is more desirable in a lot of ways, market, overall strength of athletic department, etc. than K-State. K-State has a huge fan base, but not a whole lot else to offer.

I don't know a lot about TCU's academics. I think most of the PAC12 members are Carnegie T1 Research schools. But TCU is definitely more desirable than Baylor in a lot of ways for the PAC12. Not a great geographical fit (Baylor obviously isn't either), but Dallas-Ft. Worth is a better market. They're also a secular school despite the name. The PAC12 has a lot of snoody schools much like the ACC. The CA schools in particular are liable to riot over the largest (?) Southern Baptist school in the county joining their conference.

 

[NavyCat88]

.....Well as we know, things didn't work out for Connecticut. But I don't think anyone would have predicted that this decision would send UConn Football on a death spiral that would eventually see them leaving D-1 football completely. .....

A point of parliamentary procedure....UConn is actually a D-1 FBS Independent.....not moving the needle too much but still D1 FBS. This upcoming season they have D-1 FBS opponents Army, Purdue, Clemson, Fresno St, Wyoming, Vandy, UCF and Houston on the slate.

GBB!

 

[mrschwump]

Read a couple of places the ultimate losers here could be the mid-majors. Argument goes that with expansion comes additional conference games that would take the place of say UK-UT Chattanooga therefore taking away a "money" game from the mid-major. It would be unfortunate that a move that will bring a potential $75M to one school ends another's program.

 

[Bluesnky]

When the Big 12 dissolves, everyone will be absorbed into the remaining power conferences, assuming each ends up with 16 teams:

SEC (14 right now): Texas, Oklahoma
Big 10 (14 right now): Iowa St, Kansas
ACC (15 right now): WVU
Pac 12 (12 right now): Kansas St, Baylor, Texas Tech, Oklahoma St

TCU goes back to being a mid-major somewhere.

No one is going anywhere unless they would increase the value of the conference distribution per member.

 

[RogerIndy]

You are correct. WVU doesn’t have a chance in hell in getting into the Big Ten. You have to be a member of the Association of American Universities-(Nebraska was a member until being booted out after they got into the Big Ten) and that is the Elite of Elite of College Academia.

When the ACC took Louisville they really went beyond limbo limits and if I’m not mistaken WVU is currently lower than Louisville, The only way the ACC takes WVU is if their TV Partner ESPN tells them it would boost the current TV Deal.

Kansas and Iowa State are both AAU members. I think that if the Big 10 wants 2 more members, that is what they will go for. Those two, plus Texas are the only members of the Big 12 that are AAU members. BTW, the SEC AAU members are TAMU, Florida, Missouri and of course, Vanderbilt.

 

[-COUNTRY-CLUB-JOE-]

No one is going anywhere unless they would increase the value of the conference distribution per member.

This really is the bottom line. No one is voting you in if they're losing money.

 

[NavyCat88]

Basketball doesnt draw so Kansas is not going to get an offer. As far as other predictions, it's hard to say but I'll give it a shot

Ones that survive
Iowa St will be picked up somewhere, probably Big 10
West Virginia to the ACC
Oklahoma St to Pac 12
Texas Tech to Pac 12

Ones that are definitely dead
Kansas

50/50
Kansas st.
Baylor
TCU

I agree....BB is a non-factor, and KU will finally pay a price for the putrid FB they've been putting on the field. FB is the goose that lays the golden egg and the Rock-Chalk AAU eggheads from Lawrence never the got the memo. Plus, their BB team has the specter of sanctions still hanging over it.

Honestly, I think the remaining Big 12 members should have already gone out to UCF, Cincy, Memphis, Boise St, Houston, SMU, BYU, and Colorado St to fill out their own 16-team conference and be in second place in the race to have a 16-team league. This would also cut off the B1G, PAC12, and ACC from adding teams from the same population.

But....the Big 12 history is "day late and dollar short," so I suppose they'll stand pat and get picked off one by one.

If B12 dissolves, I see Ok state, ISU, Texas Tech, finding homes because they represent decent FB and they're big schools that can add some value to either B1G, ACC, or PAC12. ISU is also AAU qualified, so they may have an inside track with the B1G.

Baylor and TCU are good but small private schools and they "might" get some play with the ACC....I don't see any other options for them....probably less than 50/50.

WVU...maaaaaaybe the ACC but I doubt it because they're academic bottom-feeders. No one likes going to Morgantown anyway because you find yourself dodging batteries and beer bottles in the stadium and burning couches on roadways on the way out of town.

KSU and KU are twisting in the wind, and they are American Athletic Conference bound IMO....but they'll have those periodic trips to East Carolina to energize their fanbase (sarc off).

GBB!