Sports Betting & Poker
- Thread starter -COUNTRY-CLUB-JOE-
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I think this is one of the more interesting spreads this week:
https://www.oddsshark.com/ncaaf/notre-dame-georgia-odds-september-21-2019-1114982
Notre Dame vs UGA (-14)
https://www.oddsshark.com/ncaaf/notre-dame-georgia-odds-september-21-2019-1114982
Notre Dame vs UGA (-14)
Opening Odds Analysis
The Bulldogs open this one as 10.5-point favorites, marking the first time the Fighting Irish have received 10 or more points since a 45-27 loss at USC back on November 26, 2016.
Went to Indiana yesterday and made my first bets ever.
Wisconsin -3 1/2 over Michigan
Kentucky +6 1/2 over Miss State
ND +13 1/2 over Georgia
Cheifs -6 1/2 over Ravens
Seahawks -4 over Saints
Wisconsin -3 1/2 over Michigan
Kentucky +6 1/2 over Miss State
ND +13 1/2 over Georgia
Cheifs -6 1/2 over Ravens
Seahawks -4 over Saints
Nice catch. I missed that earlier. The line has moved a lot since opening at UGA -10.5. I also should've noted this a matchup between two top-10 teams, though Notre Dame is overrated imo
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Michigan was the favorite in that game a few weeks ago. Their insiders have said they haven't really opened the playbook yet. I guess we'll see..haven't looked impressive.
Ravens are a popular underdog this week, but I think the Chiefs cover.
LOVE Cats this week. Got them +7.5. Saw the Twitter thread about S+P predicting MSU by 14 but also saying that S+P has overrated MSU thus far and that will be more fully reflected next week.
Careful hitting all faves btw. That's how Vegas gets rich
Careful hitting all faves btw. That's how Vegas gets rich
Crushed it last week. Ended up + $1670. Which means i will have a awful week. So far took Houston +6 UNC -3 Texas -4
I did great first two weeks, total washout last week. Beginning to transition from baseball gambling to CFB.
Ive only scoped a handful of lines this week, I generally do research on Fridays and make a few parlays and round robins for Saturday and lock em in so Im not fooling with them or doing any emotional betting on Saturdays. Then let the cards fall where they may.
Ill say for UK, I just dont get the MSU love. I really feel like we're going to win comfortably.
Ive only scoped a handful of lines this week, I generally do research on Fridays and make a few parlays and round robins for Saturday and lock em in so Im not fooling with them or doing any emotional betting on Saturdays. Then let the cards fall where they may.
Ill say for UK, I just dont get the MSU love. I really feel like we're going to win comfortably.
That's considerably more than I make in a good weekend of poker!
I'm nervous about the Carolina game this weekend. It's in Chapel Hill, but we're their super bowl, their top WR, Corey Sutton, will be available for the first time this season, and we have a handful of starters injured. WTBS, we should cover. It shouldn't be that close, but I know App State gets up for these games.
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I've never really touched professional sports. I guess most people bet totals in baseball?
I take a season long "investment" approach. Do round robins. If you play the favorites to win in those, over the course of the season you come out way ahead. Sprinkle in the obvious favorable pitching mtchups, or when you just know something one way or the other with your team (Reds obviously for me.)
Betting on Yanks, Dodgers, Astros etc and against Tigers, Orioles, Marlins, pretty much every night in round robin equals nice long term profit.
I generally dont fool with pro football because its so mercurial week to week. I get my kicks there just doing FanDuel for fun, and when I win its nice but no real expectation of big profit. You need a real nice bankroll to actually make those things work. Not rocket science, just have to play the percentages and it takes real disposable income to do it.
Not college but I like Jacksonville getting points tomorrow night.
Also I see Fan Duel and DFS mentioned above. To get ahead there you need to play the 50/50 games. I hit the money half in 70 percent of my 50/50's. They arent as glamorous as the tournaments but if you look at the tournament payouts the only people that win are the first place guys. The money drops drastically after that. Factor in you are turning in one or two line ups and the winners generally turn in 20 or more. It takes serious cash to win in the tourney side of things. Look for 50/50 games with 1k or more entrants and watch your cash grow (assuming your into analytics and can handicap DFS at an average or above average level). Folks get lucky and win those tourneys but the real pros are doubling those bankrolls in the 50/50 games.
Also I see Fan Duel and DFS mentioned above. To get ahead there you need to play the 50/50 games. I hit the money half in 70 percent of my 50/50's. They arent as glamorous as the tournaments but if you look at the tournament payouts the only people that win are the first place guys. The money drops drastically after that. Factor in you are turning in one or two line ups and the winners generally turn in 20 or more. It takes serious cash to win in the tourney side of things. Look for 50/50 games with 1k or more entrants and watch your cash grow (assuming your into analytics and can handicap DFS at an average or above average level). Folks get lucky and win those tourneys but the real pros are doubling those bankrolls in the 50/50 games.
I really like the Wisconsin line. That might be my favorite betting game of the weekend.
Baseball betting is money lines. A lot of it has to do with the pitching matchups.
Country Joe who like like in CFB this weekend ?
I may lose the Houston game, but i feel it is a good play. We will see. Last week was definitely a outlier. Not a normal week for sure. Won a bunch on it with Louisville, total, first half, 2nd half. WKU over 9 points second half, I hit every bet i played in that game.
I may lose the Houston game, but i feel it is a good play. We will see. Last week was definitely a outlier. Not a normal week for sure. Won a bunch on it with Louisville, total, first half, 2nd half. WKU over 9 points second half, I hit every bet i played in that game.
Houston is 1-2 but they’ve played 2 top 25 teams. I got Houston +6 earlier in week
Unfortunately, I haven't had time to do as much this week. I'm going to try to post some picks later though
Bought a point for our game and managed tn get us at +8.5. Parlayed it w UF, LSU, WSU, UCF money lines (all -400 or greater favorites) $200 to win close to $500
Also doubled down on UK and UCF w a 2 game money line Parlay. I managed to get the UK game when we were still +220ish. $180ish to win $500ish
I have absolute faith in us covering the 8.5. And UCF will wipe the field w Pitt. I’m confident in the 5 team parlay and if we win outright then it should be a nice $1000 payday.
Also doubled down on UK and UCF w a 2 game money line Parlay. I managed to get the UK game when we were still +220ish. $180ish to win $500ish
I have absolute faith in us covering the 8.5. And UCF will wipe the field w Pitt. I’m confident in the 5 team parlay and if we win outright then it should be a nice $1000 payday.
Ok..Here is what I'm looking at this week
Leans:
UL Lafayette @ Ohio -3 (-110)
Ohio has been outstanding at home and is the more tested team after losing on the road to Pitt (20-10) and Marshall (33-31). They're a covering machine and should get back to .500 this week
Wyoming @ Tulsa -3 (-126)
Wyoming has been completely one dimensional. Tulsa hung with Oklahoma St in a game that heavily skewed their run defense stats. Expect them to shore things up at home
UConn +27.5 @ Indiana (-105)
Indiana hasn't shown me anything and the Hoosiers are still recovering from that beatdown against tOSU. UConn gets an extra week to prepare. This is a generous spread. Take the points
Western Michigan @ Syracuse -5 (-105)
Syracuse has been good against the spread vs MAC opponents. Michigan St is somewhat offensively challenged and hammered the Broncos 51-17. The Orange are due and facing a softer opponent. This one just makes sense
UTSA @ UNT -18.5 (-115)
UTSA doesn't have a ground game. Both teams should be airing it out. North Texas is already a heavy favorite and the game is in Denton. I wouldn't be surprised if they won by four touchdowns
Locks:
Baylor 1H -16.5 @ Rice (+100)
Baylor should be well-rested and their offense is clicking. Their fans will pack Rice stadium. The Owls won't be able to run the football and Baylor will look to put them away early for an impressive win in front of Houston area recruits before starting conference play
UCF @ Pitt UN 61 (+100)
Central Florida will be trying to blow teams out to get in the playoff discussion, but Pitt also has something to prove this week after a boneheaded loss at rival Penn St (17-10), and a disappointing season opening loss at home against UVA (30-14). Narduzzi knows he has to shorten the game to give his team a chance and Pitt is comfortable grinding it out. Take the under
Might add a parlay tomorrow..but other than that probably no live bets or anything this weekend
I don't bet more than 20% of my bankroll in one week or on one game. I'm betting 1 unit on leans and 2 units on locks this week
Leans:
UL Lafayette @ Ohio -3 (-110)
Ohio has been outstanding at home and is the more tested team after losing on the road to Pitt (20-10) and Marshall (33-31). They're a covering machine and should get back to .500 this week
Wyoming @ Tulsa -3 (-126)
Wyoming has been completely one dimensional. Tulsa hung with Oklahoma St in a game that heavily skewed their run defense stats. Expect them to shore things up at home
UConn +27.5 @ Indiana (-105)
Indiana hasn't shown me anything and the Hoosiers are still recovering from that beatdown against tOSU. UConn gets an extra week to prepare. This is a generous spread. Take the points
Western Michigan @ Syracuse -5 (-105)
Syracuse has been good against the spread vs MAC opponents. Michigan St is somewhat offensively challenged and hammered the Broncos 51-17. The Orange are due and facing a softer opponent. This one just makes sense
UTSA @ UNT -18.5 (-115)
UTSA doesn't have a ground game. Both teams should be airing it out. North Texas is already a heavy favorite and the game is in Denton. I wouldn't be surprised if they won by four touchdowns
Locks:
Baylor 1H -16.5 @ Rice (+100)
Baylor should be well-rested and their offense is clicking. Their fans will pack Rice stadium. The Owls won't be able to run the football and Baylor will look to put them away early for an impressive win in front of Houston area recruits before starting conference play
UCF @ Pitt UN 61 (+100)
Central Florida will be trying to blow teams out to get in the playoff discussion, but Pitt also has something to prove this week after a boneheaded loss at rival Penn St (17-10), and a disappointing season opening loss at home against UVA (30-14). Narduzzi knows he has to shorten the game to give his team a chance and Pitt is comfortable grinding it out. Take the under
Might add a parlay tomorrow..but other than that probably no live bets or anything this weekend
I don't bet more than 20% of my bankroll in one week or on one game. I'm betting 1 unit on leans and 2 units on locks this week
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Had one of the worst beats ever with Houston last night- had them and Jags on the ML parlay.
Packers ML over Broncos
Seahawks ML over Saints
Chiefs ML over Ravens
49rs ML over Steelers
Patriots to cover -22 over Jets
UCF ML over Pitt
Oregon ML over Stanford
Wash. St to cover -18.5 over UCLA
$25 parlay pays $480
First ever bet placed (Thanks Indiana!) Understand parlays are long shots, but what’s $25?
Seahawks ML over Saints
Chiefs ML over Ravens
49rs ML over Steelers
Patriots to cover -22 over Jets
UCF ML over Pitt
Oregon ML over Stanford
Wash. St to cover -18.5 over UCLA
$25 parlay pays $480
First ever bet placed (Thanks Indiana!) Understand parlays are long shots, but what’s $25?
Yeap, just tackle the MFer at the 10 and let them make a fg. Nope, son of a bitch runs thru two defenders with their Ole tackling. I had a bad feeling when Houston had 1st and goal and did not score a TD to protect the line. If they go up 4 , can't lose. Only saving grace was hedging and taking Tulane -3.5 second half. I was hoping to win both bets and had it until Houston couldn't tackle.
That has to be the luckiest cover of the year for Tulane. Public was heavy on Houston. Tulane had some sharp reverse line movement from -3 to -4.5. Those people will lose money long term betting the ass end of a number
Cool website. How do their predictions usually do?
That's been generally my strategy. I tend to do the DFS for fun though. I do what I can to win, but generally at the end of the season I come out ahead but I'm not getting filthy rich. Doubling the bankroll is the best way to look at it.
You're 100% right about the big $ entries. There's no secret. You need to have a bankroll to support putting in 150 entries and hope 1 or 2 of those place in the good money at the top. I just don't have the disposable income to do that. It's not rocket science to come up with 150 different lineup combinations that might actually place. You only need that 1 to finish in the top for it to be worth your while. Just have to be able to absorb the $ loss on the others.
Yeah, it's a good reference. I don't follow their predictions at all. I usually only use it to help find the best spreads, trends, analysis, etc.
Last winter, at the WSOP event in Cherokee, I flopped middle set with QQ on a rainbow board and got all in vs AQ top two pair...they filled up with an ace on the river. The guy sitting beside me had the case ace, so this lady hit a one outer on the river. I was about a 98% favorite. This was in a cash game which typically play at higher stakes during the event. Brutal beat. Probably my worst one ever. I've been playing cards and betting on games for almost 20 years
Oregon / Stanford looks to close to me. Oregon could be covering nicely, then a cheap meaningless TD would beat you. Will watch the line, but a no play for me at the moment. Maybe the total, if any.
I will agree. But Oregon beat up shitty Nevada and Montana. One is a d2 school and the other is worse than dog shit. Stanford got manhandled by UCF, lot of teams would.
A little 3 team 1st half parlay.
UNC -1.5 1st half
MIss St. -3.5 1st half
Cal/Ole Miss over 20.5 1st half
$20 to win $122
Also UCF -6.5 1st half Risking $120 to win $100
UNC -1.5 1st half
MIss St. -3.5 1st half
Cal/Ole Miss over 20.5 1st half
$20 to win $122
Also UCF -6.5 1st half Risking $120 to win $100
Threw a couple $50 plays on Michigan - .5 for second half and over 20.5 for second half combined. Got a little lucky with Michigan scoring there late. Hit them both. Too bad UT couldnt score over 17.5 for the game. Welp win 2 and lose UT bet to come out minus juice.
