Breaking down the Cats and Gators

[vhcat70]

We will play ball control as long as we're within a score of the lead. One is to keep the D fresh which helps Stoops to trust the D will deliver. Other is b/c we have Money MacGinnis to fall back on. Sure there will be new wrinkles, but not wholesale passing & gimmicks.

You win by 10 on the road as a dog & you think the next plan is major changes???

 

[KatFootballFan]

I see this game unfolding a little differently:

• UK-D vs. UF-O: I think our run defense is for real. It's not going to suddenly collapse and give up 250, especially against this offense, IMO. UF has not been good with the run so far, and I don't see that improving against our highly motivated D this Saturday night. Thus, they are going to have to throw it early and often in my opinion, and while Franks surely has potential, he is still very green and is going to certainly make mistakes. I hope we plan on applying intense pressure for 4 quarters on this young QB. That will translate to numerous bad throws, and most likely a few turnovers. If they beat us, they'll have to earn it through the air. Do you think that can happen? I do not. This D will be looking to make a statement in this game. Those 45 last year are all the motivation they need. Big advantage for UK Defense.
• UK-O vs. UF-D: Florida has lots and lots of stud athletes, but Football is a TEAM game. UK is playing team ball. UF is not. They are in turmoil right now. They will surely play hard and be physical, but they are also playing some frosh, and new starters for 2017, thus, there will be mistakes made, as in missed assignments, blown coverages, etc. They did not do really well against a poorly coached UT offense last week AT HOME no less, and now they are up against a team that has its engine running on all cylinders - efficient.....in a very hostile environment. UK's Offense played a solid game this past weekend. They understand their roles, and are committed to executing their role, whatever that may be. They did not panic in any way after going down 7-0, as a matter of fact, it made no difference in their performance. I know it is hard to get past the past, but this is a new team with a new mindset = they actually believe in one another. This weekend, I think we will see many new looks in this offense. They've not showed, because they did not have too so far. Now is the time. UF has seen the tape on 3 games, and it has been pretty straight forward so far. I don't expect our offense to use that same playbook this weekend. I fully expect to see screens to Bowden, King, Conrad, etc. Probably a throw by Bowden out of the wildcat. A few long shots too, with Juice, Ross, or one of the frosh - it will be there in play action as they cheat up to try to stop the run....and we are going to run the ball. SJ just has to be efficient and make his short and intermediate throws to keep them honest. He does that, and UK will roll up 200+ on the ground this week, and that translates into a Kentucky W. Advantage UK offense, all the way.
• Special Teams: We just went up against the best kick returner in All of College Football, and we shut him down. We have a great kicker, and an excellent punter. Our coverage has been solid and aggressive. Advantage KENTUCKY.
• What the KATS cannot do this weekend: Turn the ball over. No short fields. No scores by their defense. No giveaways of any kind. IMHO I think it is the Kats that turn UF over, and over, and over. I'm not buying UF as a viable team right now. I've seen two poor showings so far, and they are very, very lucky to be .500. If not for UT's poor coaching, they would likely be ofer at this point in time. Kats send 'em home below .500 for the first time in a very long time : ) I'll take THE University of Kentucky 31, UF 13. The Wildcats sound off loud and clear this weekend - they are for real!
• The Intangible: Saturday nights crowd at Commonwealth Stadium. I think they call it the 12th man?...lol. Yeah, no joke. The Big Blue Nation is as fired up as it has been in 10 or 15 years. Kats are 3-0, they are at home, and it is time for some loooong awaited payback........Better bring your earplugs folks, it's going to be L O U D. KATS! KATS! KATS!..............It's OK, you can believe. The time is now.

 

[Rockford]

Excellent Break Down, Mr. E


He who runs the best, wins..... there will be lots of bruised and battered bodies.

17-14.... I just don't know who.

Best shot we've had in a long time.

 

[buckkiller]

UF 20
UK 31

Kentucky will be plus 3 in turnover margin and getting great field position throughout game. Defense will set up offense to score 17 points off turnovers. I say Franks throws 2-3 picks and that will be difference. Offense will look it's best this Saturday will the help of another great defensive effort. I say UF scores a tuddy late in game after it's out if reach.

 

[pascat]

If Kentucky stays at home on defense and elects to not gamble, I like their chances. If, however, Kentucky continues to do what it has done for the last 30 years (get intimidated, play scared, take risks, lack trust of teammates, try to do too much), we will lose, perhaps by multiple touchdowns.

The one common denominator in all of the 30 losses in this streak is that Florida offensive players have been RIDICULOUSLY wide open all over the field, irrespective of our talent or theirs. That can sometimes reflect schematic failures, but it more likely means playing impulsively.

This year, UK does not need anything extra from its defense other than being themselves. Sure, play as passionately as you can. But play as intelligently as you can too. As Stoops said, "The strength of our team is the team." That means trusting each other, staying put, doing your job.

In other words, I completely agree with you, Erik, that playing conservatively is key. Let's play them straight up.

 

[Gary4UK]

It's hard to imagine that Florida had only a 3 game lead on Kentucky before this 30 game win streak happened... A lot of that was Stevie boy.. I still don't know what some UK fans see in Steve Spurrier, except that he beat Kentucky and a lot of other schools, but he made fun of Kentucky the most...

 

[Gary4UK]

Kentucky's beaten the line in both games, and I hope they make it 3 against Florida...

 

[WildcatDJ]

I've always felt like one of two crazy things will happen when the streak ends:

1. We'd win when we least expected it. Something like we're 0-3 or 0-4 and we upset them.
2. We'd blow them out.

I don't expect a blowout with our style of play, but how glorious of a day could Saturday be if we dominate them the entire game?

We can't hope or even believe we're gonna win Saturday...as a collective consciousness we have to KNOW we will.

 

[frost-1]

Thanks Erik. I see the cats in a close game. Cats 20, Fl. 17

 

[WildCard]

Great write up Erik! Maybe because it is exactly the way I see the match ups.

I don't know why (coaching, injuries, suspensions ???) but this is "not your father's FL". It is hard to imagine a better opportunity to end the streak but many times such things happen when least expected (see TN win). Is it possible the high expectations for UK and the low spread favoring FL propels the Gators to something more than we have seen from them so far? I don't know.

Peace

 

[KatFootballFan]

Great write up Erik! Maybe because it is exactly the way I see the match ups.

I don't know why (coaching, injuries, suspensions ???) but this is "not your father's FL". It is hard to imagine a better opportunity to end the streak but many times such things happen when least expected (see TN win). Is it possible the high expectations for UK and the low spread favoring FL propels the Gators to something more than we have seen from them so far? I don't know.

Peace

You'll "know" first hand come November 25th. Can't wait!

 

[HalHR2500]

If Cats don't give up any cheap TDs, they win by 7-10

Another words, No bombs, no returns of any type = win

Florida has elite speed on perimeter but not a ton of skill to execute offense

 

[502 Wildcat]

Florida 6
Kentucky 13

You heard it here first.

 

[Soupbean]

Great write up Erik! Maybe because it is exactly the way I see the match ups.

I don't know why (coaching, injuries, suspensions ???) but this is "not your father's FL". It is hard to imagine a better opportunity to end the streak but many times such things happen when least expected (see TN win). Is it possible the high expectations for UK and the low spread favoring FL propels the Gators to something more than we have seen from them so far? I don't know.

Peace

That's actually a little of my fear WC. It seems in any game where there is a clear prevailing sentiment towards one side there is always some form of fall back to that. Felt that way before the USC game. Just too much talk about how rosy things looked for them and how much we were struggling.

Now I'm not doubting the reason behind our optimism for this game and think we should have a great shot to beat the gators, it's just the karma thing. Just don't want them to wear that as a chip on their shoulder and come in with a nothing to lose attitude and all the sudden look like they can't do anything wrong. I can see the Franks coming off some new found confidence built on one hail mary coming in here and all the sudden looking like Tim Tebow.

 

[The-Hack]

I'm starting to feel that it will be a Kentucky "blowout." And by blowout, I mean, maybe doubling their rushing yards and also out-passing them. Score might be a whole lot like the last three.

I'll call it 24-13, Kentucky.

 

[UK_Dallas]

Re the UF QB Franks...he originally committed to LSU then decommitted when Miles was fired. Big, strong guy with a big arm.

Just a slight correction - he was a redshirt at UF when Miles was fired last year.

 

[catsfanbgky]

I am going to make a prediction opposite of what UKEric says. I think we hit a couple big plays. The more you substitute and use make shift lineups, the more there is a chance of a blown coverage. Florida will play a lot of zone coverage. With all the different players not familiar with each other, i say we get 1 if not 2. The key is if 1. SJ connects on it and 2. If he has time to set and throw when it happens.

 

[sambowieshin]

I'm a couple of months away from being 64. I can remember UK beating Florida. Lots of Kentucky fans can't. How sad is that? I've been witness to many "chances" to win we managed to blow. We picked them off SEVEN times and still lost. That is just one of the many crazy things which have happened versus Florida. I've seen lots of "laughers" where Spurrier took delight in running up the score. I will admit, when it comes to Florida I have the "UK fan mentality" of waiting for the bottom to fall out. Bad play, bad call, bad something or other which dooms us.

People are talking about how important winning this Saturday is for the team and it is. It is more important than my own paranoia where Florida is concerned. But, I will say this for us older fans who CAN remember beating Florida and for those who can't because of their "blessed" youth. Beating Florida Saturday would be a transformative win, not just for the UK football program, not just for this year but for us fans, for some of us, a life time of frustrations to the point where we cannot even contemplate a win against Florida. I don't care if we are up 45-0 with 2 minutes left and the ball. I'll still be subconsciously waiting for the "bottom" to fall out.

A win against Florida on Saturday changes more things about Kentucky football and the psyche of Kentucky fans than most realize. For the first time in a long, long time I might even have some modicum of optimism going into this game. But it won't mean anything until the final gun sounds and we have more points on the board than Florida.

I think this one was the most painful for me to remember....
2003, Florida 24, Kentucky 21: Rich Brooks’ first Kentucky team had a 21-3 lead going into the fourth quarter. With 4:40 left, the Cats had the ball at their own 32, clinging to a 21-17 lead. A Jared Lorenzen interception set up the Gators’ go-ahead score.

 

[Deeeefense]

I think this one was the most painful for me to remember....
2003, Florida 24, Kentucky 21: Rich Brooks’ first Kentucky team had a 21-3 lead going into the fourth quarter. With 4:40 left, the Cats had the ball at their own 32, clinging to a 21-17 lead. A Jared Lorenzen interception set up the Gators’ go-ahead score.

Also we lost possession late on a procedure call for having too many men of the field. Had we taken possession as we should have we would have won.